Summary of JREI Global Property Value/Rent Indices (No. 4, Apr. 2015)

Transcription

1 May 28, 2015 Japan Real Estate Institute (JREI) Summary of JREI Global Property Value/Rent Indices (No. 4, Apr. 2015) We are pleased to release a summary of the result of the Forth JREI Global Property Value/Rent Indices (as of April 2015). Global Property Value/Rent Indices In order to investigate the real estate market trend of some major cities in the world, we compiled the value/rent indices of surveyed assets, which were appraised by JREI staff valuers. Survey Outline (Survey No. 4) Surveyed Cities : Tokyo, Osaka, Seoul, Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Taipei, Singapore, Kuala, Bangkok, Jakarta, Ho Chi Ming (HCMC), New York, and (14 cities) Use : Office and multifamily residential No. of Surveyed Assets : Six assets in each city (three office buildings and three residential assets) Survey Method : We compiled indices based on the appraised value or rent per square meter of each asset by assuming that the subject asset would be newly developed and sold or leased as of either April 1 st or October 1 st each year. Survey Results at a Glance (in Comparison with Survey No. 3, Change Rate from Oct to Apr in Parentheses) Office Market Office building value continued to rise in all 14 surveyed cities. The rate of increase declined in Tokyo, Osaka, Beijing, Shanghai, New York, and. The top three increases were observed in Tokyo (+3.9%), Osaka (+3.8%), and (+3.5%). The value growth of Tokyo and Osaka was caused mainly by robust investment demand for office buildings under the extra-easy monetary policy of the country. All 14 cities witnessed an increase in office building rent. The rate of increase fell in Tokyo, Osaka, Beijing, Hong Kong, Singapore, New York, and. The biggest office rent growth (+2.6%) was seen in New York, where the leasing market was buoyed by strong demand for office space in the flourishing technology, advertising, media and information (TAMI) sector. Condominium Market Like the prior survey in April 2014, there was a clear dichotomy among cities in terms of the positive or negative growth rate of their condominium values. The top two cities of positive growth were Shanghai (+3.6%) and Hong Kong (+3.6%). The condominium market in central Shanghai was positively impacted by the government s stimulus policy to accelerate real estate transactions (the so-called September 30 th Deregulation) that was implemented in October The policy helped to improve the sentiment of home buyers both for their own use and for investment. Ho Chi Ming (+0.8%) saw a slight increase in condominium value as the market seemed to have bottomed out. Cities with a negative growth rate in condominium value were Taipei (-3.9%) and Singapore (-2.3%). A stronger market regulation, which was carried out by the government to cool down the residential market, depressed condominium prices in Taipei. 1

2 1. Half-Year Growth Rate of Value/Rent Index by 1-1. Growth Rate of Office Building Value Index (Six Months from October 2014 to April 2015) Figure 1-1 shows the half-year growth rate of the office building value index in each surveyed city. As of April 2015, the growth rate was highest in Tokyo (+3.9%) followed by Osaka (+3.8%) and (+3.5%). On the other hand, the lowest rate was reported in Beijing (+0.1%). Figure 1-1: Comparison of Half-Year Growth Rate of Office Building Value Index 6% 5% Oct-14 Apr-15 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Tokyo Osaka Seoul Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong Taipei Singapore Kuala Bangkok Jakarta HCMC New York Oct % 4.6% 2.2% 1.4% 2.2% 1.4% 1.1% 1.4% 0.6% 0.7% 2.8% 0.5% 3.6% 4.2% Apr % 3.8% 2.3% 0.1% 2.1% 0.7% 1.1% 1.6% 0.7% 1.3% 3.4% 0.6% 2.6% 3.5% 1-2. Growth Rate of Office Building Rent Index (Six Months from October 2014 to April 2015) Figure 1-2 shows the half-year growth rate of the office building rent index in each surveyed city. As of April 2015, the growth rate was highest in New York (+2.6%) followed by Jakarta (+2.1%) and (+2.0%). Among the monitored cities, Osaka registered the lowest rate (+0.1%). Figure 1-2: Comparison of Half-Year Growth Rate of Office Building Rent Index 6% 5% Oct-14 Apr-15 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Tokyo Osaka Seoul Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong Taipei Singapore Kuala Bangkok Jakarta HCMC New York Oct % 1.9% 0.2% 1.0% 0.4% 1.4% 1.1% 3.6% 0.7% 0.7% 1.5% 0.6% 3.6% 2.3% Apr % 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.9% 0.7% 1.1% 1.5% 0.7% 1.3% 2.1% 0.6% 2.6% 2.0% 2

3 1-3. Growth Rate of Condominium Value Index (Six Months from October 2014 to April 2015) Figure 1-3 shows the half-year growth rate of the condominium value index in each surveyed city. As of April 2015, the growth rate was highest in Shanghai and Hong Kong (both +3.6%) followed by New York (+3.5%) and Osaka (+2.8%). On the other hand, negative growth rates were witnessed in Taipei (-3.9%) and Singapore (-2.3%). Figure 1-3: Comparison of Half-Year Growth Rate of Condominium Value Index 6.0% Oct-14 Apr % 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Tokyo Osaka Seoul Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong Taipei Singapore Kuala Bangkok Jakarta HCMC New York Oct % 4.0% 1.5% -2.0% 3.3% 3.8% 0.1% -2.5% 1.5% 3.3% 2.9% -1.2% 3.8% 5.6% Apr % 2.8% 2.0% 1.0% 3.6% 3.6% -3.9% -2.3% 1.3% 2.0% 3.0% 0.8% 3.5% 1.2% 1-4. Growth Rate of Condominium Rent Index (Six Months from October 2014 to April 2015) Figure 1-4 shows the half-year growth rate of the condominium rent index in each surveyed city. As of April 2015, the growth rate was highest in Jakarta (+3.0%) followed by Shanghai (+2.5%). On the other hand, negative growth rates were witnessed in Singapore (-1.2%), Beijing (-0.5%), and Seoul (-0.2%). Figure 1-4: Comparison of Half-Year Growth Rate of Condominium Rent Index 6.0% Oct-14 Apr % 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Tokyo Osaka Seoul Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong Taipei Singapore Kuala Bangkok Jakarta HCMC New York Oct % 0.6% -0.7% 0.9% 2.4% 2.8% 0.7% -1.4% 0.6% 0.4% 3.1% -3.9% 1.3% 1.8% Apr % 0.4% -0.2% -0.5% 2.5% 0.9% 0.0% -1.2% 0.6% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.4% 1.1% 3

4 2. Value/Rent Trend by (October 2010 =.0) Figure 2-1: Office Building Value/Rent Indices (October 2010 =.0) [ Tokyo ] [ Osaka ] Apr Apr-11 [ Seoul ] [ Beijing ] Apr-11 Apr-11 [ Shanghai ] [ Hong Kong ] Apr-11 Apr-11 [ Taipei ] [ Singapore] Apr-11 Apr-11 4

5 Figure 2-1: Office Building Value/Rent Indices (October 2010 =.0) [ Kuala ] [ Bangkok ] Apr-11 Apr-11 [ Jakarta ] [ HCMC ] Apr Apr-11 [ New York ] [ ] Apr-11 Apr-11 5

6 Figure 2-2: Condominium Value/Rent Indices (October 2010 =.0) [ Tokyo ] [ Osaka ] [ Seoul ] [ Beijing ] [ Shanghai ] [ Hong Kong ] [ Taipei ] [ Singapore ]

7 Figure 2-2: Condominium Value/Rent Indices (October 2010 =.0) [ Kuala ] [ Bangkok ] [ Jakarta ] [ HCMC ] [ New York ] [ ]

8 3. Value and Rent Comparison among Surveyed Cities (October 2014) 3-1. Value Comparison of Prime CBD Office Buildings Figure 3-1 shows the index number of the value per leasable square meter for a prime office building in the CBD of each surveyed city (Tokyo s Marunouchi/Otemachi District =.0). The value of the building in the local currency of each foreign city was converted to the value in the Japanese yen and indexed. (The same method was also applied to the office building rent comparison.) Figure 3-1: Value Comparison of Prime CBD Office Buildings 250 (Tokyo's Marunouchi/Otemachi District as of April 2015 =.0) Tokyo Osaka Seoul Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong Taipei Singapore Kuala Bangkok Jakarta HCMC New York (*) Index number by city for the prime CBD office building value per square meter of each surveyed city (Tokyo s Marunouchi/Otemachi District as of April 2015 =.0) 3-2. Rent Comparison of Prime CBD Office Buildings Figure 3-2 shows the index number of the rent per leasable square meter on the typical floor of a prime office building in the CBD of each surveyed city (Tokyo s Marunouchi/Otemachi District =.0). Figure 3-2: Rent Comparison of Prime CBD Office Buildings (Tokyo's Marunouchi/Otemachi District as of April 2015 =.0) Tokyo Osaka Seoul Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong Taipei Singapore Kuala Bangkok Jakarta HCMC New York (*) Index number by city for the prime CBD office building rent per square meter of each surveyed city (Tokyo s Marunouchi/Otemachi District as of April 2015 =.0) 8

9 3-3. Value Comparison of High-End Condominium Units Figure 3-3 shows the index number of the high-end condominium unit value per square meter of each surveyed city (Tokyo s Moto Azabu District in Minato Ward =.0). The value of the unit in the local currency of each foreign city was converted to the value in the Japanese yen and indexed. (The same method was also applied to the apartment rent comparison.) Figure 3-3: Value Comparison of High-End Condominium Units 350 (Tokyo's Moto Azabu District as of April 2015 =.0) Tokyo Osaka Seoul Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong Taipei Singapore Kuala Bangkok Jakarta HCMC New York *) Index number by city for the high-end condominium value per square meter of each surveyed city (Tokyo s Moto Azabu District as of April 2015 =.0) 3-4. Rent Comparison of High-End Condominium Units Figure 3-4 shows the index number of the high-end condominium rent per square meter of each surveyed city (Tokyo s Moto Azabu District in Minato Ward =.0). Figure 3-4: Rent Comparison of High-End Condominium Units (Tokyo's Moto Azabu District as of April 2015 =.0) Tokyo Osaka Seoul Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong Taipei Singapore Kuala Bangkok Jakarta HCMC New York (*) Index number by city for the high-end condominium rent per square meter of each surveyed city (Tokyo s Moto Azabu District as of April 2015 =.0) 9