Population Trends and Their Implications for Higher Education in Australia

Transcription

1 Population Trends and Their Implications for Higher Education in Australia by Graeme Hugo ARC Australian Professorial Fellow, Professor of Geography and Director of the Australian Population and Migration Research Centre, The University of Adelaide Presentation to the Universities HR Benchmarking Conference on Enhancing Capabilities, Intercontinental Hotel, Sydney 4 September 2014

2 Outline of Presentation Introduction Global Context Australia s Demographic Outlook Implications for Student Numbers Implications for the Academic Workforce Policy Issues Conclusion

3

4 The Australian Demographic Context Growth rates Processes of growth Ageing Population distribution 51 st largest country 12 th largest economy

5 Contemporary Population Growth Rates (% pa) Source: ESCAP 2013; Population Reference Bureau 2012 and 2013; ABS 2013

6 Projections of the Population of Australia, 2005, 2008 and 2013 Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population data Projections 2005, 2008 and 2013 Australia ABS 2005 ABS 2008 ABS 2013 Series B 2011 Actual Projected Projected

7 Australia: Total Population Growth Showing the Natural Increase and Net Migration Components, Source: ABS 1997 and ABS Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues 600, , ,000 Number 300, ,000 Net Migration 100,000 0 Natural Increase -100, Year

8 Australia: Expectation of Life at Birth, Source: Hugo 1986 and ABS Deaths Bulletins Expectation of Life at Birth Males Females

9 Australia: Expectation of Life at Age 50, , and 2012 Source: ABS Year Males Females

10 Australia: Total Fertility Rate, Source: CBCS, Demography and ABS, Births Australia, various issues

11 Australia: A Country of Immigration 27 percent born overseas in percent Australia-born with an overseas-born parent(s) in ,142,560 persons temporarily present at 31 March 2014 Without postwar migration the Australian population would be less than 13 million Estimated 900,000 Australians in overseas country Almost one in five Australian households speaks language other than English at home

12 Higher Degree Qualification by Australia- and Overseas-Born, Source: 1981 to 2001 Census One Percent files, ABS 2006 and 2011 Censuses Year Australia-born Overseas-born Percent of All Higher Degree Overseas-Born

13 Australia: Age-Sex Structure of the Population, June 2013 Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population data Males Females 60 Baby Boomers 50 Age First echo Second echo? 0 200, , ,000 50, , , , ,000 Persons

14 Australia: Number and Percentage of the Population Aged 15 to 24, 1947 to 2013 Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population Data 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 Number aged % of total aged Number 2,000,000 1,500, ,000, , Percentage Year

15 Baby Boomers % of Australian Population 36.0% of Australian Workforce 48.4 of Academic Workforce

16 Structural Ageing: Australia: Change by Age: ; 2031 (Series B) Source: ABS 2013 Projections Percentage Change (28.6 m) (33.4 m) Age

17 Australia: Projected Annual Growth Rates of the Population by Age, Source: ABS 2005, 2008 and 2013 Projections, Series B 2013 Age Group Percent Growth per Annum Total

18 Workforce Challenges for Australia in the Next Two Decades Producing a new generation of more skilled and better trained workers to enhance productivity and competitiveness Replace the 36% of the current workforce who are baby boomers * Universities will play a major role in meeting these challenges as well as face its own challenges

19 Number of Students is a Function of: Age Structure Participation Rates Involvement of Overseas Students

20 Australia: Population Aged 18-24, Actual 1961 to 2011 and Projected 2016 to 2031 Source: ABS Censuses and ABS 2013 Projections, Series B 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 Persons 1,500,000 1,000, , Year

21 Demand for University Trained Workers Will Be Greater Because: Structural change in economy towards more knowledge intensive employment Loss of the baby boom cohort of workers through retirement * However there will be only a small increase in the numbers in the traditional school leaver cohort if current participation levels are maintained

22 Likely Increase in Participation Levels Demands for a more skilled and better trained labour force Government objective to lift percentage of year olds with a university education from 32 to 40% Added pressure of education export industry currently valued at AUD$15 billion

23 Increased Participation From Mature Age Students Will be increased pressure to increase workforce participation rates and retirement ages Retraining of people changing careers Upgrading of skills of graduates Bringing in groups who did not have the opportunity in earlier years to attend university when leaving school important social inclusion elements

24 Overseas Students in Australian Universities, 1983 to 2013 Source: Department of Education Students: Selected Higher Education Statistics, various issues Number 400, , , , , , ,000 50,000 0 Overseas Students from Southern and Central Asia Overseas Students from Northeast Asia Overseas Students from Southeast Asia Other Overseas Students Total Overseas Students ( ) Year

25 Outlook for Foreign Students Not an inexhaustible source Impact of changed regulations relating to transitioning from temporary to permanent residence Sharp reduction in youth population in Asia The Australian Dollar Increased competition within Asia, e.g. Singapore, China, Malaysia Effects of negative publicity

26 Enrolment Projections for Tertiary Students if Entry Rates Stay the Same as 2004 Source: OECD, 2008, Index (2005 = 100) ( 000) Australia 1,025 1,150 1,126 1, OECD 47,723 48,621 47,145 46, UK 2,288 2,445 2,290 2, Japan 4,038 3,514 3,505 3, Korea 3,210 2,921 2,613 2,

27 Factors Influencing Demand for, and Supply of, Academic Staff Demand Number of people of school leaving age Extent of mature age enrolment Participation rates Staff-student ratios Supply Postgraduate Pipeline Competition from other sectors for PhD graduates Immigration, permanent and temporary Emigration of Australians

28 Australia: Number of University Academic Staff, Censuses Source: ABS Australian Censuses of Population and Housing Year No. Annual % Growth Rate , , , , , , ,

29 Number of Full-time and Fractional Full-time Academic Classification Staff, 1996 to 2013: University Data Source: Higher Education Statistics Year Number Growth Rate

30 Australia: Number of Academic Staff, Source: ABS, Year Book Australia, various issues; DEST, Staff: Selected Higher Education Statistics, various issues

31 Australia: Age-Sex Structure of Lecturers and Tutors, 2006 and 2011 Source: ABS 2006 and 2011 Censuses 2006 (shaded) and Males Females Age Number

32 Age-Sex Structure of Academic Staff and the Australian Workforce, 2011 Source: ABS 2011 Census

33 Australia: Percentage of the Workforce by Age Groups, 2011 Source: ABS 2011 Census

34 Australian Academic Staff 2006: High Proportions in Academic Organisational Units Aged 50 Years or More (only units with more than 60 members are included Source: DEST unpublished data from Universities Australia Academic Organisational Unit Number of Staff Percent Aged 50+ Teacher Education Education General 1, Agriculture Curriculum and Education Studies Human Welfare Studies Visual Arts Information Systems Studies in Humanities Mathematical Sciences Nursing Information Technology

35 Australian University Academic Staff in Sciences: Low Proportions Aged 50 Years and Over, 2006 Source: DEST unpublished data for Universities Australia

36 Recruiting the Next Generation of University Staff: The Four Rs Replacement Retention Recruitment Return

37 The Replacement Task Currently 40.6% of the academic workforce are aged 50+ and most will retire over the next twenty years There are high levels of attrition to other sectors overseas

38

39 Employer Demand for Researchers (Allen Consulting) 72 Employers Survey 70% saw increased demand for researchers in next 5 years Half indicated demand for researchers will be greater than supply over next 10 years Two Edged Sword for Universities Increased demand for training researchers Increased competition for high quality staff

40 Challenges in Retaining Existing Workforce High rates of mobility Levels of academic staff dissatisfaction Need to engage with generations X and Y Need to retain performing baby boomers

41 International Survey of Academics: Satisfaction with Academic Work by Country Source: Coates et al., 2009, p. 4

42 Percentage of Academics Who Had Considered or Taken Action Towards Major Job Change by Country Source: Coates et al., 2009

43 Attrition Rates for Academic Staff by Age for Selected Universities Source: DEEWR

44 Attraction and Retention of Generation X and Y Pipeline factors, talent identification, mentoring Family friendly factors Gender dimensions Lifestyle dimensions Problems of lack of permanency

45 Baby Boomers Myths about older workers, stereotyping Need for increased flexibility Mentoring, succession planning

46 Recruitment Within Australia - PhD completions (domestic) - Transfer from other sectors Outside of Australia - PhD completions (overseas-born) - International migration - permanent - temporary

47 Recruiting Within Australia Challenges of competition from other sectors in competitive labour market Comparative advantage of an academic career Difficulty of joining academic sector mid career

48 Migration is a Two Way Process Emigration - Academic labour market always been -International brain-drain arguments High Turnover ,327 incoming academics, permanent - 23,060 outgoing - 20,267 net Issues of Quality and Composition of In and Out Flows

49 Australia: International Migration of Academics, to Source: DIAC unpublished data Long Term Arrivals Long Term Departures Permanent Arrivals Permanent Departures Number Year

50 Australia: Settler Arrivals of Academics by Country of Birth, to Source: DIBP unpublished data

51 Australia: Settler Arrivals of Academics by Country of Birth, and Source: DIBP unpublished data

52 Australia: Permanent Departures of Academics by Country of Birth, to Source: DIBP unpublished data

53 Australia: Permanent Departures of Academics by Country of Birth, and Source: DIBP unpublished data

54 Immigration Example Study of 239 Chinese Academics 48 percent intend to stay permanently Substantial return migration between one fifth returned Connection with student migration

55 Australian Chinese Academic Study: Linkages with Mainland China Source: Survey (n=231)

56 EMIGRATION Australia s Academic Diaspora One Million More Survey 2006: Future Intentions of Australian Academics/Researchers Living in Foreign Countries Source: One Million More Survey, unpublished data

57

58 Return Half of Australian academics overseas would like to come back Need to target groups Use of Alumni Virtual and temporary return Access to research key factors Salary is not the only or even the main factor

59 I see myself as part of a brain drain of academic achievers who have left Australia for the UK or USA because of the gradual decay/active destruction of Australian universities. Salaries, teaching conditions and research funding are all of massive concern as is job security. I hope the results from this survey send a clear message that many of us who have left would like to return eventually but fear it is difficult or impossible to do at the present. The most useful point I can make is that I am one of a group of a growing number of Australian academics who realise that I can earn a lot more, get better research funding and a perfectly good lifestyle in Europe.

60 Survey of Australians Overseas, 2001: Reasons Given by Academics and Researchers for Intending to Return to Australia (N=57) Source: Emigration Survey 2001

61 Survey of Australians Overseas, 2001: Reasons Given by Researchers for Not Returning to Australia (N=167) Source: Emigration Survey 2001 Reasons Number of Respondents Percent Employment Opportunities Career and Promotion Opportunities Business Opportunities Partner s Employment No Equivalent Jobs in Australia Marriage/Partnership Children Grew Up Here Family/Friends Here Lifestyle Established in Current Location Higher Income Better Taxation System

62 Key Issue Australian universities face their largest academic staff recruitment task since the 1960s-1970s In the earlier crisis they turned to enhanced academic training efforts (Borrie) and international migration Similar problems being experienced in other OECD countries

63 Conclusion Demographic change one of key challenges facing universities over next two decades Influence on student numbers and staffing Some generic issues but differences between universities and discipline areas Key to dealing with them is forward planning Need for national study but also university by university and discipline by discipline