Migration experience of the Baltic countries during and after the economic crisis

Transcription

1 Migration experience of the Baltic countries during and after the economic crisis Mihails Hazans University of Latvia and IZA (Bonn) Presentation at the conference COPING WITH EMIGRATION IN THE BALTIC AND EAST EUROPEAN COUNTRIES Riga, Latvia, April 2, 2014 The emigrant communities of Latvia: National identity, transnational relations, and diaspora politics - research project financed by European Social Fund. Project No. 2013/0055/1DP/ /13/APIA/VIAA/040

2 Notice Copyright Mihails Hazans 2014 No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without written permission from the author and without author s explanatory text. Sources: Hazans, M. (forthcoming). Migration experience of the Baltic countries in the context of economic crisis. In: Martin Kahanec and Klaus F. Zimmermann (eds), Migration, Crisis, and Adjustment in an Enlarged E(M)U [Slides 3-9, 12, 15-17] Hazans, M. (2013). Emigration from Latvia: Recent trends and economic impact in OECD, Coping with Emigration in Baltic and East European Countries, OECD Publishing (2013), pp doi: / en [Slide 14] Hazans, M. (2011). The changing face of Latvian emigration, , in: Brigita Zepa and Evija Kļave (eds), Latvia. Human Development Report 2010/2011: National Identity, Mobility and Capability. Riga: University of Latvia Press (2011), [Slides 10, 11, 16] Hazans, M. (2014). Emigration Intentions and Fertility Potential in Latvia. Presentation at the conference Labour Mobility and Transnationalism in the Nordic-Baltic Region, Tallinn, Estonia, March 7, 2014, (full paper in Latvian: ala_infrastruktura.pdf ) Data sources: Eurostat; national statistical offices; OECD; 2011 Population Census data (UK, Lithuania); statistics on allocation of social security numbers (UK, Ireland).

3 Economic context: Real GDP per capita and unemployment rates in the Baltics,

4 Share of households making ends meet with difficulty or having arrears, : Latvia stands out

5 Baltic emigration trends : data from main destination countries vs. the official Baltic data

6 For all destinations except Ireland, emigration levels in substantially exceed the pre-crisis level of 2008 In 2012, total gross outflow to the 7 main destinations from Latvia (respectively, Lithuania and Estonia) was by 80% (respectively, 56% and 63%) above the 2008 level Data of Statistics Latvia/Lithuania/Estonia underestimate the scale of emigration and (especially in Latvia) distort the trend

7 Baltic populations: "Natural" decrease [and ageing] reinforced by emigration

8 Demographic impact: Age distribution of adult population in the UK: Lithuanian immigrants vs. natives (Census 2011)

9 Survey data on intentions reveal a high potential for further emigration...

10 Who is more likely to emigrate and why: Emigration plans of Latvia s residents aged 18-65, early 2011

11 Who is more likely to emigrate and why: Emigration plans of Latvia s residents aged 18-65, early 2011

12 Education, ethnicity and emigration from Estonia Intentions to work abroad, Population aged 15-64, by education level Population of Estonian background in Finland (2000=100): The share of Russian-speakers seems to be on rise since 2008

13 Families with the largest demographic potential are more likely to emigrate: Share of Riga households with one or more potential emigrants, by main household language and by presence of children, 2012

14 Estimated percentiles of Latvian emigrants' last earnings in Latvia from all jobs as proportion of median earnings of all legally employed persons in the same month, More than 75% of emigrants before leaving Latvia were in the lower part of distribution of domestic earnings Relative domestic productivity of the top half of emigrants with [legal] work experience was falling dyring the growth periods and rising during the recession brain drain risk is higher in the times of crisis

15 Labour market situation of emigrants Economic status of native and immigrant population aged 16+ in the UK, 2011 Hourly earnings of immigrants and natives in Ireland, 2006 & 2009

16 Main activity of emigrants from Latvia, by education level, host country & period of departure 100% 90% Other/NA 80% 70% Job seeking 60% 50% Studies/Training 40% 30% Self-employment 20% 10% 0% Paid work not using one's qualification Below Secondary Secondary Tertiary UK Ireland Continental Europe Other/NA Total Paid work using one's qualification Education Host Time of departure

17 Looking ahead Estimates from different sources confirm that Latvia and Lithuania are recently among the three most EU-mobile NMS Emigration from Baltic countries reached levels that threaten reproduction of their populations, sustainability of social security systems and economic development. The demographic risk is most pronounced in Latvia Economic push factors are most pronounced in Latvia and least pronounced in Estonia; yet non-economic reasons for emigration also seem to be more wide-spread in Latvia In all three Baltic countries, emigration has become the new normal, and the diasporas will keep growing in the years to come Diaspora [cooperation!] policy and smart immigration policy need to be mainstreamed

18 Thank you for attention!