Introduction. From the taskforce Chair

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2 From the taskforce Chair The South Australian Teacher Education Taskforce is a unique and collaborative body that now, in its third year of operation, looks forward to strengthening the links between the educational sectors and key stakeholders in South Australia. When formed, the Taskforce was charged with developing collaborative partnerships between stakeholders to improve understandings about issues related to the South Australian teaching workforce and implications for the future. Since its inception, Taskforce agendas have been driven and informed by local issues but also the national reforms relating to teacher quality. Much has been achieved so it is timely that a record of the work of the group is documented and published. A series of monographs have been developed as the result of the combined efforts of the employing authorities in South Australia - The Department of Education and Child Development, Catholic Education South Australia, Association of Independent Schools of SA - and Flinders University, the University of Adelaide and the University of South Australia. The monographs capture the actions and findings of the group to January The titles of the four monographs are: Establishment of the Teacher Education Taskforce Teacher Supply and Demand Beyond 2010 Improving Professional Experience for Pre-service Teachers Expanding Pathways into Teaching for Aboriginal People The Taskforce members encourage you to consider the monographs as a point in time summary of the outcomes of the group s work. Many of the issues and recommendations remain as ongoing priorities for the group: working to improve the quality of professional experience placements for pre-service teachers; workforce supply and demand, and pathways into teaching for Aboriginal people - however the focus within each priority is on moving forward. As chair I look forward to the next phase of inquiry and collaboration with this group. I acknowledge the commitment of members of the Teacher Education Taskforce and commend them for their contributions to date. Introduction In April 2009, the then Minister for Education established a Teacher Education Taskforce with responsibility to prepare recommendations for future actions at the state level to better manage the ready supply of quality teachers in response to expected increased rates of retirement of teachers across the public, Catholic and independent sectors. An important impetus for establishing the Taskforce were the national education reforms initiated through the Council of Australian Government (COAG). The national partnerships entered into through COAG, particularly the National Partnership on Teacher Quality have provided a strong platform for the work of the Taskforce. At the same time, in South Australia concerns were being raised by members of the education and business communities about a raft of matters related to teacher recruitment and quality including: the ageing teaching workforce the need for teachers of primary aged students to be highly skilled maths, science and literacy teachers availability of places in schools for pre-service teachers to practice the quality of supervision for pre-service teachers practical experience teacher graduates readiness to teach. Into this mix was the recognition that teacher employers, both government and non-government and teacher educators as well as the accrediting body, the Teachers Registration Board, needed to work together on these local issues and address the implications of national initiatives for their respective fields. These key players needed to discuss and agree on shared directions for future action for the benefit of students and for the development of the state. The Taskforce membership comprised nominees from teacher education program providers (Flinders University, University of Adelaide and the University of South Australia), and each of the schooling sectors (Catholic Education, Association of Independent Schools, and the then Department of Education and Children s Services). The Taskforce was and continues to be chaired by the Chief Executive of the government sector. Keith Bartley Chair of the Teacher Education Taskforce March

3 The broad intentions of the Teacher Education Taskforce were to: promote productive partnerships between the higher education institutions (teacher educators) and the three schooling sectors (teacher employers) provide a forum for discussing the implications of national initiatives for South Australia from the perspectives of the key players promote coordinated, educationally sound reforms that contribute to improving teacher quality and ensure that students are served by qualified staff regardless of their geographic location. Initial priorities for the Taskforce work program were to develop actions to: better manage teacher supply and demand at a state level improve the quality of professional experience for pre-service teachers expand pathways into teaching for Aboriginal people. At its first meeting the Taskforce set up working groups for each of the above priorities. Working groups were asked to investigate the issues associated with their priority. Teacher employment and the teacher labour market in South Australia For the purpose of this report, teacher refers to all registered teachers. This includes those in leadership roles, those in a classroom setting, those not in a classroom setting and those not directly employed in the education profession but still registered. Note: the Australian Bureau of Statistics Teacher workforce analysis also included those qualified but no longer in the labour market in addition to all registered teachers. As at June 2010, a total of 35,474 teachers were registered with the Teacher Registration Board (TRB) of South Australia. Data provided by the TRB on the composition of all registered teachers show that: 72% were female 58% were aged 45 years and over and of this group, more than a quarter were aged over 60 years 3% stated their residential address as interstate or overseas. By contrast, over 70% stated their residential address as metropolitan South Australia The outward movement of teachers under mutual recognition is greater than teachers seeking registration in South Australia (in 2010 a total of 320 registered teachers were seeking registration in another jurisdiction compared with 177 seeking registration in South Australia). Information published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for the 2010 Schools Australia report showed a total of 20,604 teaching staff were employed in South Australia. A further 1,178 specialist support staff were employed, the majority of which have a teaching background. Compared to the total number of registered teachers, it is evident that a significant number are not currently working in a school setting (approximately 40%). They are either no longer in the labour force, not working in education or working in other educational type roles available within the profession. 2

4 This trend is supported by the 2006 Census of Population and Housing analysis (undertaken by the ABS) specific to the Teacher Labour Force for the whole of South Australia whereby: just under half of the 38,246 qualified teachers in the South Australian population were actually teaching, one quarter were employed in other occupations, approximately 1% were unemployed and a quarter were not in the labour force of the one quarter (9,361) who were employed in other occupations, almost one fifth remained in the education profession, but not as a teacher. This group constitutes the most likely potential supply of teachers in the labour force. Of those, 2,015 were trained in the primary area and 1,091 were trained in the secondary area. Over half stated their qualification only as teacher education of the one quarter (9,648) who were not in the labour force, two thirds were aged 60 or over suggesting that the majority are of retirement age and not likely to be considered as a potential teacher supply. The distribution of teachers and student enrolments across government and non-government sectors as reported by the ABS Schools Australia report in 2010 showed that: approximately 62% (12,797) of teaching staff in schools were employed in the government sector, 19%(3,848) in the Catholic sector and 19% (3,959) in the Independent sector by comparison, approximately 65% (169,324) of student enrolments are in the government sector, 18% (47,361) in the Catholic sector and 17% (44,911) in the Independent sector further, almost 60% (156,201) of all student enrolments are at the primary level and 40% (105,395) at the secondary level by comparison, approximately 55% of the teacher workforce is employed at the primary level and 45% at the secondary level (based on FTE rather than persons). More specifically, the distribution of teachers and students in each sector is as follows: Government 61% (103,529) of enrolments are at the primary level. Approximately 59% of the 12,797 government sector workforce are employed at the primary level. 39% (65,795) of enrolments are at the secondary level. Approximately 41% of the 12,797 government sector workforce are employed at the secondary level. Catholic 59% (28,021) of enrolments are at the primary level. Approximately 51% of the 3,848 catholic workforce are employed at the primary level. 41% (19,340) of enrolments are at the secondary level. Approximately 49% of the 3,848 catholic workforce are employed at the secondary level. Independent 55% (24,651) of enrolments are at the primary level. Approximately 47% of the 3,959 independent sector workforce are employed at the primary level. 45% (20,260) of enrolments are at the secondary level. Approximately 53% of the 3,959 independent sectors workforces are employed at the secondary level. NB Teacher proportions by primary/secondary stated above are based on FTE totals due to data availability. It is assumed the proportions would remain similar when considering the workforce by number of persons. 3

5 Workforce planning at the state and national level State level Establishment of the Teacher Education Taskforce has provided an opportunity for all key stakeholders to consider how the function of the labour market will influence teacher quality with particular emphasis on the impact of expected increased levels of recruitment required over the next five to ten years to replace the retiring baby boomer generation of teachers. The ability to be able to undertake detailed supply and demand modelling is heavily dependent on reliable and complete data being available. Due to the relatively decentralised non-government school systems in South Australia, data collection at the sector level was less comprehensive than data collection in the government (DECD) system. This resulted in the final data used being heavily reliant on DECD teacher workforce information, augmented by a whole of sector supply and demand model. Despite the potential data limitations, the initial exploration of teacher supply and demand projections for the whole of the South Australian school sector provides a reasonable basis to understand the general trends and provides a solid platform for further analysis and enquiry. Improved data in relation to the teacher workforce has been identified as a key strategy in supporting the ongoing development of the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) Improving Teacher Quality National Partnerships agenda. Specifically, the development of a National Teacher Workforce Data Set and the development of a series of Workforce Surveys (such as the 2011 Staff in Australian Schools - SiAS) were projects designed to support the data collection at a national level with all jurisdictions (including South Australia) being actively involved. Data resulting from these initiatives will support and improve national workforce planning in relation to the teaching workforce. National level Following previous studies undertaken in the 1980s and1990s by the Australian College of Educators, the first government funded and coordinated Staffing Australian Schools Survey was undertaken in 2007, with the research conducted by the Australian Council for Educational Research and Australian College of Educators. Results from the survey confirmed patterns and trends in the teacher workforce which provided a context for further work to be undertaken at both the state and national level. Some key findings were: middle and mature aged workforce dominance with average age for primary teachers being 43 years and 44 years for secondary teachers, and with the remote schools workforce being up to five years younger a workforce that has a high proportion of females, especially within primary schools full time employment dominance prevalence of intention to teach until retirement attraction and retention staffing issues for teachers in remote and hard to staff schools and in the subject areas of maths, science and Information technology. The national teacher workforce survey was accompanied by a Teacher Workforce Data and Planning Processes report. A follow up teacher workforce survey was undertaken in 2010 with a final report pending. Research projects used for workforce planning at the state level A series of research projects have been undertaken on behalf of the Department for Education and Child Development and the Teacher Education Taskforce to improve the understanding of the teacher labour market in South Australia. The work specifically commissioned by DECD includes: More than an Educated Guess: Evidence-based Teacher Workforce Planning for the 21st Century undertaken by the Australian Institute for Social Research (AISR) previously a Career Intention Survey of the over 45 Permanent Teacher Workforce for DECD undertaken by AISR a survey of applicants on the DECD Employable Teacher Register undertaken by AISR an updated Modelling of DECD Teacher Supply and Demand undertaken by AISR a Labour Market and Demographic Profile of Qualified Teachers and the Teacher Workforce in South Australia undertaken by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) a Labour Market, Demographic and Education Profile of the Early Childhood Labour Force and People with Early Childhood Qualifications in South Australia undertaken by the ABS. 4

6 The specific reports commissioned by the Teacher Education Task Force were: an Initial Modelling of Teacher Supply and Demand for the SA School Sector undertaken by AISR a review of Teacher Supply and Demand in South Australia undertaken by the Centre of the Economics of Education and Training (CEET), Monash University. This report provides an overview and critique of the work undertaken by the AISR and is an invaluable reference resource to understanding the strengths and limitations of the work as well as providing recommendations for future work to be undertaken. This monograph discusses the key findings from the above series of research projects undertaken and identifies a number of policy implications for further consideration by all key stakeholders. The teacher supply and demand modelling undertaken by AISR The modelling of the supply and demand characteristics of the teacher workforce at the state level presents a number of methodological challenges. A range of different approaches to workforce modelling can be undertaken and different researchers will choose to undertake the process in different ways. Some particular issues that are relevant to the work undertaken by DECD and the Taskforce are: at any time a change in the underlying factors influencing supply and demand modelling will impact on the final forecasts provided. For the purpose of this summary the factors influencing the teacher labour market are held constant based on the climate in 2009/2010 another point to note in the modelling is the difference between potential and active supply. Potential supply covers all individuals qualified to teach regardless of their intention to teach or not Active supply covers all permanent and temporary employed teachers at a point in time including those teachers on leave who are expected to return to work. The modelling undertaken by AISR was for the active teacher workforce only as identified in the Monash review, segmentation of the supply side of the teacher labour market is not really plausible as a teacher in a school in one sector (whether it be government, catholic or independent) can substitute for a teacher with a similar qualification and specialisation in another sector without needing to do additional training. A gap in teacher numbers in one sector cannot be considered in isolation of the supply and demand situation in the other sectors. Further, it can be assumed the teacher workforce is relatively mobile across sectors and willing to be employed based on opportunities available The Monash review also states that teachers by gender and level of teaching generally have different age profiles, therefore separation behaviour. These differences should be incorporated into the modelling for a more accurate measure of supply and demand A further point for consideration in the Monash Review is the impact of interstate and overseas migration on teacher supply in South Australia. Although AISR assumed this to be an overall nil impact, changes in migration patterns over time will impact on teacher supply and exclusion from the modelling potentially underestimates the forecasts provided. Some additional issues more specific to DECD include: for the purpose of the modelling undertaken by AISR only those individuals who were on the DECD Employable Teacher Register (ETR) and employed at the time of the project have been included (approximately 2600 or 30%). The remainder of the ETR has not been included as their attachment and availability to the workforce is not clearly defined to be considered active (the remaining 70% of the ETR are considered potential supply) due to data quality and methodological limitations, the scope of the teacher supply and demand modelling undertaken to date does not cover the supply and demand of teachers at the subject specific level. This level of analysis will be investigated further by DECD at a later stage. A detailed analysis of the South Australian teacher labour market has been undertaken for the first time. Exploration of South Australian teacher supply and demand projections has been feasible within specific data limitations. 5

7 Teacher supply in South Australia Factors influencing teacher supply are represented diagrammatically below. Permanent Teachers currently employed School Level Location Region Temporary Teachers currently employed School Level Location Region DEERW Enrolments in teacher training Age Gender Subject/ course enrolled Teachers permanently separated Age Gender Location Attritions (Average attrition rate for students enrolled in teacher training in SA) Retirements Age Gender Location Region School Level Teachers currently on extended leave Employment Status School Level Location Region Current total teacher supply (2010) New Teacher Graduates Potentially entering workforce Age Group Gender Initial Qualification Additions ( ) Non-retirement Separations (constant over time) Leakages ( ) Projected Total Active Supply ( ) School Level Location AISR (2010) Modelling teacher supply and demand. Whole of SA school sector (REPRODUCED) A number of factors impact on teacher supply including the number of experienced teachers continuing from the previous year, new graduates entering the workforce, new teachers available through migration and teachers returning to work, all adjusted for attrition. Teacher supply is measured independently from teacher demand. Teachers actively seeking employment While this information relates to DECD only it is indicative of the interests and behaviour of people actively seeking work as teachers across all education sectors in South Australia. At any point in time DECD has around 8000 applicants registered for teaching positions on the ETR. Further, up to 50% are engaged in temporary employment with DECD (the modelling assumed only 30%, which was based on the number of temporary employees at a point in time). Although the ETR is administered by DECD, all teachers registered are potentially available for employment within both the government and non-government sectors, therefore providing a state supply of teachers. However, the characteristics of the DECD ETR are more complex and should not be assumed to be the total guaranteed supply available to the South Australian school sector. Results from the Employable Teacher Register survey conducted in 2009 showed that over one third of respondents did not want permanent work, with the majority of these respondents being aged 50 years and over. In fact, the overall average age of teachers who responded to the survey was 44 years and the majority had more than 10 years experience in teaching. Approximately 7% of respondents (equivalent to an estimated 550 teachers overall on the DECD ETR) identified as new graduates to the teaching workforce. At the time the ETR survey was conducted: approximately 10% (equivalent to an estimated 900 teachers overall on the DECD ETR) were not employed but looking for work 5% were keeping their application valid for the future (not employed or looking for work) the majority were engaged in employment either as a teacher in the government sector (50.7%) or nongovernment sector (9.4%) 12.4% were working as a temporary relief teacher 10% were working in a non-teaching capacity. 6

8 When these employment trends are applied to the whole ETR, it is evident that although the potential supply may be up to 8000 teachers at any point in time, the actual supply looking for work at any point in time is less than1000.this is a significantly different profile of teacher supply than initially considered. It is interesting to note that the current distribution of teachers employed in South Australia based on the ABS Schools Australia report for 2010 showed approximately 55% of the teacher workforce are employed at the primary level and 45% at the secondary level. The overall estimated supply of active teachers reported by AISR for 2010 showed 62% at the primary level and 38% at the secondary level. Estimated supply compared to current teachers employed shows quite clearly the oversupply in the primary sector (55% current, 62% supply) and the tighter supply at the secondary level (45% current, 38% supply). NB Current teacher proportions by primary/secondary stated above are based on FTE totals due to data availability. It is assumed proportions would remain similar when considering the workforce by number of persons. University Graduates One of the key sources in achieving additions to the teacher workforce is through new teacher education graduates becoming available for employment. Attrition rates for university students in South Australia average between 16.5% and 18.5% in South Australia which is comparable to national trends. The estimated number of new teacher graduates entering the South Australian teacher workforce is approximately 1450 per year between 2010 and 2015, with an estimated 63% (900) entering the government sector and the remainder entering the non government sector. The current number of teacher graduates entering the teaching workforce overall is sufficient to retain a strong supply in South Australia. However, specific attention needs to be given to the number of male graduates and the number of secondary graduates entering the workforce as supply in these areas is expected to tighten over the next five years. Migration Teacher migration patterns over time and their impact on the South Australian teacher labour market have been researched by Professor Hugo in More than an Educated Guess: Evidence-based Teacher Workforce Planning for the 21st Century. Historically, more teachers left South Australia permanently for overseas destinations than were coming into the State. However, changing patterns of migration to South Australia since 2005 have shown teachers and their families to become the fourth largest group of arrivals. Unlike post war migration that was dominated by United Kingdom origins, there has been a significant increase in teacher inflow from South Africa, New Zealand and a number of Asian countries. Over time the nature of teacher migration in and out of South Australia has changed where the pattern is now one of significant flows both in and out of the State but resulting in very low net migration. Although AISR considered teacher supply through migration as part of the modelling from both interstate and overseas they were not included as part of the final modelling due to: the findings from Hugo whereby overall net migration was considered low lower numbers of interstate and overseas teachers registered with the Teachers Registration Board compared to the overall total (233 applications for assessment of overseas qualifications in 2009) the inability to determine how many interstate and overseas registered teachers actually enter the teaching workforce and more specifically the inability to include them in the more detailed measures of supply by sector, school level, age or location. However, as recommended in the Monash review, the impact of teacher migration on overall supply should be considered as part of any further analysis of the South Australian teacher labour market. Factors such as numbers of continuing teachers (including those returning to work), new graduates, workforce migration and attrition determine teacher supply. The South Australian teacher supply is much stronger at the primary level than the secondary level has high female representation that is likely to increase. Likely increased retirement rates resulting from an ageing workforce may lead to new areas of opportunity for teachers. Difficulties continue to be experienced in attracting and retaining teachers to remote and hard to staff schools and in specific subject areas including maths, science and IT. 7

9 Attrition rates Approximately 80% of the DECD teaching workforce at the time of data collection was permanent. The average age of the DECD teaching workforce in 2010 was 46 years. The average age of teachers in the non government sector is slightly younger but still impacted by factors of an ageing workforce. The ageing workforce is one of the key factors that has led to the realisation that retirement rates are likely to increase in the near future as the post war baby boomers reach this stage of their working career. Based on historical trends only, the work undertaken by AISR shows that total retirements for DECD are expected to almost double between 2009 and 2014 (275 to 517 persons). Overall separations for the government sector are expected to increase to almost 800 by Separation rates for the non government sector estimated by AISR still show an increase over the five year period to 202 in the Catholic Sector and 345 in the Independent Sector by These estimated separation rates are conservative and do not take into account the expected impact identified by the DECD Career Intention Survey where up to one third of the government sector permanent teacher workforce aged over 45 years is considering retirement over the next 5 years. This proportion is at the upper end based on all factors affecting retirement remaining stable. An increase in the rate of retirements will impact significantly on the number of continuing teachers available as part of the teacher supply. Teacher demand Demand is broadly defined as the number of qualified teachers needed to meet the requirements of the student population. Teacher demand is influenced by a range of economic, fiscal and demographic factors. Teacher demand is measured independently from teacher supply. For the purpose of the South Australian Teacher Workforce modelling the approach used to measure teacher demand is based on student enrolment levels and student teacher ratios. Teacher demand is also influenced by the organisation of work and in particular industrial agreements on staffing including face to face teaching time and class sizes. Reductions in either contact time or class sizes will increase total net demand. From 2000 to 2009 the number of children in South Australian schools increased by 1.6% with the rate of growth being highest in the non-government sector. This trend is forecast to continue with an estimated growth in student enrolments of 3.8% and with the highest growth being in the non-government sector. The estimated growth in enrolments over the next five years indicates an estimated overall increase in demand for teachers in South Australia of approximately 700, predominantly in the nongovernment sector. This figure is likely to be conservative because it does not take account of changes in face to face teaching time introduced as part of the South Australian Education Staff (Government Pre-School and Schools) arbitrated Award 2010 which lowered contact time, with the greatest impact in the primary sector. The highest growth in demand is in the primary sector which at this time is in a position of strong supply. Although demand for secondary teachers is not expected to grow based on student enrolment patterns, the demand for secondary teachers is expected to increase due to a lower supply of new graduates already evident, coupled with expected increases in retirement rates eventuating. Therefore a high number of secondary teachers will still be required to support the South Australian school sector. The demand for teachers estimated by AISR shows that in 2015 approximately 20,500 teachers will be required to support the South Australian School Sector. Almost 12,000 teachers will be required in the primary sector (increasing from approximately 11,200 in 2010) and just over 8,500 will be required to support the secondary sector (remaining relatively constant over the five year period). 8

10 Forecast on teacher supply and demand in South Australia Net teacher requirements are derived by considering trends in teacher supply in conjunction with trends in teacher demand. The following trends are based on the Whole Sector modelling undertaken and assume factors influencing the teacher labour market remain constant. The forecasts are to be used as indicative only and not absolute outcomes of teacher supply and demand. Overall, in aggregate terms South Australia is expected to have an oversupply of teachers over the next five years. This supply will begin to tighten by The oversupply in 2010 is estimated at 3,100 but by 2015 it is expected to decline to approximately The impact of industrial awards, and trends to a more part time workforce, a requirement for more flexible working arrangements, and the pursuit of part time leadership roles or contract based work only will impact on the over or under supply of the teacher workforce and will need to be monitored closely. The current strong supply of primary teachers in South Australia is expected to tighten towards The supply of secondary teachers in South Australia is much weaker, with shortages forecast by 2015 for the nongovernment sector. Primary level The oversupply at the primary level is relatively larger than at the secondary level but will begin to tighten over the five year period (estimated 2,800 in 2010 reducing to an estimated 1,740 in 2015). Despite the slight tightening of the supply of primary teachers in coming years, the South Australian school sector will be well placed to compete strongly in recruiting a quality teaching workforce. It is important the strong supply at the primary level is maintained as retirements for this sector of the workforce are expected to increase over the next ten years. Recent experience in the government sector has indicated the current strength of the primary teacher labour market through the high level of interest in vacancies created in government schools through the recent Teacher Renewal Program launched by DECD in As part of the Renewal program, a total of 54 primary level vacancies were created. The majority attracted between 100 and 500 applications per position, especially in metropolitan locations. There were no primary level positions with less than 20 applications to consider but approximately 75% of positions received in excess of 100 applications. The single most sought after position was for a Junior Primary teacher in the north eastern suburbs, with 503 applications. The introduction of the new Recruitment Policy for DECD in 2011 has resulted in more than 600 teachers being placed into ongoing positions throughout South Australia. Approximately three quarters of the placements were to primary school positions, showing again the strength of the primary level supply of teachers. An analysis of applications received as part of the DECD regular advertising of teaching positions in 2011 further supports the strength of the market for primary level teachers in South Australia. Of the total positions advertised (almost 500 across primary and secondary level teaching), 133 positions received less than 20 applications of which 30% were primary. By contrast, there were 36 positions that received over 200 applications each that were all primary level in the greater metropolitan area. Further analysis of the primary positions with fewer applications clearly showed that the lower level of interest was for specialist language teachers and teachers of music and the arts. Therefore, although supply is still strong at this level, there are some shortages in the specialist subject areas, a trend also supported by the national Staff in Australian Schools survey undertaken in

11 Secondary Level The forecasted oversupply of teachers at the secondary level is much less than for the primary level, and this situation is already a reality for the South Australian school sector. The market is projected to tighten much more quickly after 2011 with a shortfall becoming apparent by 2015 (estimated 282 in 2010 reducing to a shortfall of 53 by 2015). The significant tightening of the secondary level workforce will be compounded by expected increased retirement rates within the next 5 years as well as lower numbers of graduates supporting the overall supply. The key pressure points as identified by the DECD Career Intention Survey are for the secondary sector, science teachers and male teachers. As part of the DECD Teacher Renewal program 2011, a total of 48 secondary level vacancies were created. By contrast, only 10% of positions attracted more than 100 applications and they were all in the inner and eastern suburbs. A further 15% of the positions received fewer than 20 applications based in both metropolitan and country locations. The position attracting the least level of interest was a Secondary level accounting teacher in the South East of the State. The lower level of interest in these vacancies compared to primary level positions shows the tightening of supply at the secondary level. Placement of teachers into permanent positions as part of the new DECD Recruitment Policy in 2011 provided opportunities for almost 150 secondary level teachers. This represents approximately 25% of all positions made available through this initiative. The main subject areas that were made available included English/Drama, Maths, Science and Society/Environment. Significantly less placements were made to the subject areas of Design/Technology, Art and Music, Physical Education and Health, Special Education and the Languages. Further analysis of the positions advertised as part of the regular DECD processes showed of the 133 positions that received less than 20 applications each, over 60% were secondary level, clearly showing the tighter supply resulting in fewer applications for positions at this level. Although the distribution of the lower level of applications was more consistent across the main subject groupings, the stand out pressure point was for the broader subject area encompassing Design and Technology. This group represented 40% of the positions receiving fewer than 20 applications each. The expected shortfall of secondary teachers requires immediate attention by all key stakeholders to ensure ongoing sustainability of quality secondary teachers. The need to retain high quality secondary teachers will increase, requiring new recruitment strategies to be developed. Further modelling considerations The work undertaken to date by DECD and the various research bodies has provided more detailed information regarding the current and future position, career intentions and profile of the teaching workforce in South Australia. Other areas for further consideration include: analysing the differences in behaviour by gender and level of school and the impact on teacher supply and demand examining the different rates of growth in enrolments and demand by school sector reviewing the supply of graduates, taking into account potential versus actual supply (attrition) monitoring migration patterns further dissecting of the DECD ETR and its impact on the overall supply of teachers considering the differences between teachers and leaders developing an approach to undertaking subject level forecasting to be able to identify emerging pressure areas for the teaching workforce, especially in the secondary sector considering the impact of a higher rate of retirement as identified in the DECD Career Intention Survey undertaking further analysis of the early years workforce in terms of supply and demand. 10

12 Factors likely to influence future policy direction at a state-wide level In response to the changing demographics of the teacher workforce, a number of national and state initiatives are being developed over time to retain a quality teacher workforce for the future. Within DECD a range of strategic recruitment and retention initiatives have been in place for some time to address areas of shortages or hard to staff locations. This includes placements in regional and remote areas and shortages in the fields of maths and science. These pressure points are not unique to South Australia and continue to be problematic across all areas of the School Education Sector. The Teaching is Inspiring campaign launched by DECD in 2011 is a positive marketing strategy to boost the profile of public teaching to be a worthwhile and valued profession. Strategies such as this can be utilised more extensively to attract new interest to the profession and to support policy direction. Changing demographics As already outlined, Australia and more significantly South Australia is facing increased retirement rates over the coming years due to the ageing of the post war baby boomer component of the workforce. Increased retirement rates will lead to significant tightening of the teacher labour market, making it essential for new graduates to continue to enter the workforce. The DECD Career Intention Survey specifically identified the key impending retirement groups including secondary teachers, teachers in the field of science and male teachers as those most likely to consider earlier retirement. As identified in the modelling, the impact of increased retirement rates will impact even more significantly on the supply of secondary level teachers in the non-government sector. This has the potential to lead to increased competition for quality secondary teachers within the State and at a national level. Seventy percent of the DECD teacher workforce is female. With increased retirement rates predicted for the male workforce, the predicted increase of female representation in the workforce has the potential to impact on teacher demand as trends indicate more females than males undertake part time work due to family responsibilities and/or the need to care for ageing parents. Increased female representation therefore has the potential to lead to an increased demand for part time work opportunities and/or job sharing arrangements. Flexible working arrangements Research in relation to the characteristics of young graduates entering the workforce suggests graduates are much more mobile and flexible with regard to their working arrangements than was evident for previous generations. This changing nature of the younger component of the teaching workforce needs to be considered in terms of the type of training provided and the types of career opportunities offered. The need for a more flexible approach to teaching as a profession is not restricted to the younger generation. The results from both the DECD Career Intention Survey and DECD Employable Teacher Register Survey clearly show that the older cohort of the workforce are also seeking more flexible working arrangements as they enter the final stages of their working careers. As already stated, the high level of female representation of the workforce is likely to lead to a requirement for more part time employment opportunities. In addition the intention to retire earlier is less evident for the female workforce as research suggests they are not as financially secure as their male peers. Furthermore, those either seeking or currently in leadership positions were keen to pursue the option of undertaking a leadership role on a part time basis. Phased retirement options including reduced work hours or patterned long service leave were considered favourably by approximately 50% of respondents to the DECD Career Intention Survey. In addition, half of the respondents indicated they would be willing to stay longer with DECD if they were able to stay in their current workplace or reduce their hours. Although up to one third of teachers aged over 45 indicated their preference to retire within 5 years, over 60% of respondents also indicated their interest in being engaged on a casual or contract basis. These trends are further supported by the results from the DECD ETR survey where more than one third did not want permanent work and preferred the more flexible nature of employment offered through the DECD ETR arrangement. Preference for traditional working arrangements of full time permanent employment still apply to many, but at both ends of the spectrum (early career and final stages of career), the increased need for a more flexible approach to supporting and retaining the teacher workforce is becoming apparent. 11

13 Hard to staff vacancies and teacher deployment Data available from the workforce planning projects undertaken suggests a continued tightening of the market in hard to staff locations and for specific subject areas. This is further supported by the applications received as part of the Teacher Renewal program where the interest in secondary subject specific areas and country locations is significantly less than for primary vacancies in metropolitan locations. Strategies developed need to ensure supply adequately targets areas of greatest demand. At any point in time, the total number of registered teachers on the DECD ETR actively seeking employment is as low as 10% while an estimated 60% are already actively employed in some capacity in a teaching role as indicated by the DECD ETR survey results. Therefore, the real supply available for employment at any point in time is potentially much less than anticipated based on these results (less than 900). This is further supported by the fact that a total of 845 teachers applying for positions as part of the Teacher Renewal Program had never been employed by DECD. A better understanding of the career intentions of those registered on the DECD ETR will assist in structuring employment opportunities more appropriately to support the schools as well as gain a more detailed understanding of the real availability of teachers for deployment at any point in time. Other factors to consider Forecasted increase in student enrolments resulting in increased demand for teachers Increased access to education for younger children impacting on the supply of early years trained teachers Need for additional research regarding teacher graduate attrition rates (estimated 20%) and development of strategies to attract and retain graduates to the profession for which they were trained. Opportunities to retrain the existing workforce into areas of potential under supply as well as retaining knowledge and experience gained from employed teachers Acknowledgement and support strategies for teachers teaching out of field who have gained competency through experience Regional variations in expected retirement rates leading to new areas of opportunity for the teaching workforce that may not have been previously identified Identification of other pressure points by subject level to ensure ongoing teacher training in these areas (future demand for language teachers is of particular concern). Understanding better the complexities of teacher quality and how it impacts within a strong labour market. Future policy development needs to consider: attraction and retention of graduates to the profession they were trained in changing demographics of the workforce more flexible working arrangements quality workforce in a strong labour market supply to target areas of greatest demand likely teacher deployment at any time being significantly less than overall supply. 12

14 Acknowledgements The following organisations have made a significant contribution to the undertaking of the key projects in relation to Teacher Supply and Demand in South Australia: Australian Bureau of Statistics Statistical Consultancy Unit, South Australia Australian Institute for Social Research Centre of the Economics of Education and Training Department for Education and Child Development Human Resources and Workforce Development Feedback and consultation from the Taskforce representatives is also acknowledged: Catholic Education South Australia Association of Independent Schools of SA Department for Education and Child Development Flinders University The University of Adelaide University of South Australia Department for Further Education, Employment, Science and Technology Contact Phil O Loughlin Executive Director HR & WD Department for Education and Child Development

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