The Delta Project: Past and Future
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1 The Delta Project: Past and Future ASCE Met Section Infrastructure Group Seminar 2009 March 2009 Dr. Jeroen Aerts 1
2 Content 1. Geographical location 2. History of Delta project 3. Climate Change: New Delta Project 2
3 Content 1. Geographical location 2. History of Delta project 3. Climate Change: New Delta Project 3
4 4 Rotterdam
5 5
6 6
7 7
8 8 NYC
9 9 R dam
10 -4m / -7m -2m / -4m +15m / -2m +50m / +15m +322m / +50m North Sea Germany Belgium
11 11 Flood 1855
12 1938 Hurricane 1953 SW Holland ( Zeeland )
13 NY 1938 Zeeland 1953 # casualties Max waterlevels ~4-6m ~4m #houses destroyed damage 300 mill. U$ 700 mill. U$
14 Content 1. Geographical location 2. History of Delta project 3. Climate Change: New Delta Project 14
15 Delta-act Delta Plan C A B C D B B B A B D C C B D D 14 B C A C C D D D D D D B B
16 Series of dams and barriers Rotterdam Antwerp
17 Arguments for Delta plan Full protection: Storm surge may not happen again Dams & barriers shorten the coastline : raising 1000 km of dikes is more expensive Create fresh water reservoirs & protection against salt intrusion Fresh water as potential for recreation 17
18 Brouwersdam
19 Haringvliet Sluices
20 3km
21 Haringvliet sluices
22 Haringvliet sluices
23 Value of Estuary: Eastern Scheldt Barrier Rotterdam Tide Mussel fishing Tide free shipping route Antwerp
24 Eastern Scheldt barrier: 3 barriers over 3 km
25
26 Maeslantbarrier; Accessibility Rotterdam harbor
27 Construction costs Year in operation Net present value 2007 million Net present value 2007 million [Disc rate 2%] [Disc rate 4%] Storm Surge barrier Hollandse IJssel Haringvliet barrier , Brouwersdam Hellegatsplein and Volkerak sluices Grevelingen dam Storm Surge barrier Oosterschelde , Compartmentworks Canal through Zuid-Beveland Maeslant storm surge barrier Europoort barrier and Hartel barrier Total costs [Billions Euro] 8,9 12,1
28 Content 1. Geographical location 2. History of Delta project 3. Climate Change: New Delta Project 28
29 Climate Change / Sea level rise 29
30 Climate Change / Sea level rise Climate Change 30
31 Socio Economic trends Pop growth Economic growth 22 milj +2.5% +1 % 16 milj Pop decrease 10 milj
32 32 Rotterdam 1684
33 33 Rotterdam 1940
34 34 Rotterdam 2000
35 landgebruik "Gezicht op Nieuw Amsterdam" by Johannes Vingboons (1664)
36 36 landgebruik
37 37 landgebruik
38 Land use Mil. inhabitants Source: project Aandacht voor Veiligheid
39 Land use Mil. inhabitants Source: project Aandacht voor Veiligheid
40 Risk based approach Socio economic impacts: Casualties Direct damage Indirect damage Probability of an extreme flood Risk = probability * damage Resilience Adaptive capacity (o.a. finance, recovery, governance.) 40
41 Nichols et al, 2008
42 Risk : probability * Damage Development of flood risk for the Netherlands Risk Milj euro/year Only 150cm SLR Current risk: Only 85cm SLR ~100 milj. Euro/year Only high economic growth Only 60cm SLR Only low economic growth year 42
43 Uncertainty Source: Source: cnn
44 Erosion: work with nature
45 NY area: Netherlands: +/- 4 million m3 sand/ year +/- 20 million m3 sand/ year
46 46
47 New Delta PLan Dike Extra pumping capacity Beach Nourishment Dike Dike River widening Dike 47
48 Building codes, Innovation in Architecture
49 Costs of adaptation Far Future SLR [cm] Max Discharge Rhine [m3/s] Max Discharge Meuse [m3/s] Costs [Billions Euro s] Re enforcement Levees [Billions Euros] Beach nourishment [Billions Euros] Total [Billions Euros]
50 Risk When to invest? Acceptable level of risk Time
51 Original costs in 1970: 1,5 Billion Euro s (2007) Option 1. Replacement of doors for 60cm = 100 Million Euro Option 2: replace whole barrier = 1 Billion Euro s
52 Lifetime barrier = 100 years Design criteria in 1970 = 20cm sea level rise in 100 years Barrier is 50 years old: only10cm sea level rise to go With a SLR of 60cm/100years, the barrier would not fit design criteria in ~2025 In 2025 invest 100 Million Euro to replace doors (replacement whole barrier in )
53 However: If SLR is 150cm then replacement of whole barrier would be much earlier, and hence, replacing only doors in short term is not an option
54 Conclusions Barrier concept works, but adjustments needed: Environmental aspects Shipping Working with nature Beach nourishment River widening Architecture / building codes Climate change poses new challenge How to design measures such they are flexible to accommodate different future scenario s 54
55 Thanks!
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