Steel demand in sub-saharan Africa

Transcription

1 Steel demand in sub-saharan Africa African Union and the United Nations Statistics Division Regional Seminar on International Trade Statistics, 13 May 2014

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3 Content Role of steel industry in a modern economy Overview of sub-saharan Africa Steel demand of sub-saharan Africa s countries Summary 3

4 Role of steel industry in a modern economy

5 Steel is everywhere in your life

6 Steel: A key driver of the world s economy

7 Sustainable steel: steel at the heart of the green economy

8 Role of World Steel Association worldsteel members produce around 85% of the world s steel More than 160 Members, with HQs are located in over 50 countries 17 of the world s 20 largest companies are members The World Steel Association acts as the focal point for the steel industry. worldsteel provides global leadership on all major strategic issues affecting the industry, particularly focusing on economic, environmental and social sustainability. worldsteel promotes steel and the steel industry to customers, the industry, media, financial markets and the general public. worldsteel assists its members to develop the market for steel, managing major projects in a range of industry sectors. 8

9 Overview of sub-saharan Africa

10 Strong growth of population Sub-Saharan Africa 1 was inhabited by 810 million people in 2012, which represents 11.5% of World total Strong population growth in recent years Low urbanisation rate and slower urbanisation growth in recent years than world average Population growth in 2000 s CAGR , % Urbanisation rate in 2012 Urban population as % of total population Change of urbanisation rate in 2000 s Change of urbanisation rate in , % < 2% 2-3% > 3% < 40% 40-60% > 60% < 4 pp 4-6 pp > 6 pp 1) World Bank sub-saharan Africa All Income Levels definition excluding South Africa, Sudan and South Sudan, 2012 Source: World Bank 10

11 Low income levels but with strong growths Low income level in sub-saharan Africa Countries with lowest urbanisation rate have lowest GDP per capita Strong GDP growth Strong investments growth GDP per capita in 2013 Real 2010 PPP USD, thousand USD per capita GDP growth in 2000 s Real 2010 USD, CAGR , % GFCF growth in 2000 s Current USD, CAGR , % < 2 k USD 2-5 k USD > 5 k USD < 4% 4-8% > 8% < 10% 10-20% > 20% Source: World Bank, Global Insight 11

12 Investments and urbanisation relations Investments growth: current USD, World Bank, CAGR , % Urbanisation rate change: World Bank, change of urbanisation rate in , % Size of bubbles: investments current USD, World Bank, yearly average , bn USD Urbanisation rate changes % pre-industrial migration Guinea Burkina Faso Botswana Gambia Ghana Lesotho Ivory Coast Nigeria Benin Mali Cameroon Namibia Rep. of the Congo Gabon Zimbabwe Togo Kenya Rwanda Tanzania Zambia Eritrea Senegal Swaziland Mauritius Cent. African Rep. Uganda Mauritania Mozambique Ethiopia Angola Liberia Niger Malawi Equatorial Guinea Chad growing markets Burundi Dem. Rep. of the Congo -5 stagnant markets bright spots % Source: World Bank, worldsteel Investments growth 12

13 Steel demand of sub-saharan Africa s countries

14 Regional breakdown of steel demand Regional structure of steel demand has changed dramatically since 2000 Expansion of steel demand in developing world leading by growth of China Development of MENA and ASEAN countries Steel demand development in Apparent steel use, crude steel equivalent, million tonnes (Mt) Mt 1,600 Regional share in World steel demand Apparent steel use, finished steel, % Emerging & Developing Economies Developed Economies China 16.4% 41.5% 58.5% 1, % 48.5% 51.5% 1,200 1, Middle East and Africa South America China 33.3% 58.3% 41.7% Asia and Oceania (excl. China) North America former USSR Other Europe EU % 48.3% 45.1% 47.3% 63.4% 73.7% 71.3% 73.9% 36.6% 26.3% 28.7% 26.1% Source: worldsteel 14 14

15 Estimation of steel demand, data requirements Volume data required expressed in tonnes Production It is assumed that sub-saharan Africa s counties production is very small compared to steel demand Accessibility issue; estimated for many countries Steel demand depends largely on net imports of steel products Steel trade data Steel imports and exports data are very often not available in UN Comtrade Mirror statistics Steel containing goods trade data As in case of steel trade data 15

16 Increasing imports to sub-saharan Africa s All sub-saharan Africa s countries are ne importers of steel products Net import of steel products doubled in period from 2006 to 2012 Top 5 net importers had 58% share in the total net imports Net imports of sub-saharan Africa Mirror statistics, finished steel products, , million tonnes (Mt) Share in sub-saharan Africa s net imports Mirror statistics, finished steel products, 2012, % Mt 2.0 Angola Kenya Sub-Saharan Africa, rhs Ethiopia Nigeria Mt 10 Angola 12% Cameroon 3% Other 25% Ethiopia 8% Source: ISSB, worldsteel Tanzania 5% Senegal 4% Nigeria 20% Mozambique 3% Ghana 8% Ivory Coast 2% Kenya 10% 16 16

17 Different sources, different results, alike trend Comparison of ISSB mirror statistics with UN Comtrade and UN Comtrade mirror statistics gives different data, but similar trend UN Comtrade mirror statistics seems to cover bigger share of the market Samples shows good fit to price trend Net imports of sub-saharan Africa, different sources Finished steel products, , million tonnes (Mt) Mt UN Comtrade, reported UN Comtrade, mirror ISSB, mirror Prices of steel products Rebars (SBB, imports, cfr Gulf States) and HS (UN Comtrade, imports), , USD/tonne USD/t UN Comtrade, regular UN Comtrade, mirror SBB average Source: ISSB, UN Comtrade, SBB, worldsteel

18 Estimation of steel demand, limitations Mirror statistics used for many of sub-saharan Africa s countries trade statistics is not always precisely declared by countries for which steel demand is estimated trade between sub-saharan Africa s countries is not available Steel demand figure for the whole region is more precise than for individual countries Missing production estimation, rather small facilities Desirable to improve quality of reporting countries trade data to avoid necessity of using mirror statistics 18

19 Very low level of steel demand per capita Only 11 kg of steel products were used per person in 2012 World average: 220 kg, Developing Economies excl. China: 92 kg Urbanisation is not contributing to steel demand yet Steel demand per capita Apparent steel use, finished steel per capita, kilogrammes, 2012 Urbanisation vs steel demand Urban population as % of total population, 2010 Apparent steel use, crude steel equivalent per capita, kilogrammes, 2010 kg Singapore Qatar Kuwait < 10 kg kg > 30 kg Source: World Bank, United Nations, worldsteel China Italy Germany Canada Sweden Japan Turkey Iran Russia Poland Spain United States Thailand Hungary France Greece Mexico Romania Norway United Kingdom Vietnam Ukraine Brazil Egypt Algeria Argentina Tunisia South Africa Venezuela India Uzbekistan Indonesia Colombia Kenya Morocco Senegal Ghana Sudan Cameroon Bolivia Tanzania Dem. Rep. Congo Nigeria Ivory Coast % selected sub-saharan countries 19

20 Low steel intensity of GDP, lagging logistics Steel intensity in sub-saharan Africa is much lower than in Wold s average, especially taking into account high dynamics of GDP Steel intensity in sub-saharan Africa is increasing fast only in a few countries Possibility of steel demand being underestimated Other factors, e.g. inefficient logistics not supportive for steel demand Steel intensity Steel intensity of GDP, tonnes / million real 2010 USD, 2012 Logistics Performance Index 2014 < 10 t t > 20 t < > 2.7 Source: World Bank, worldsteel 20

21 Data range used for presented analysis Set of macroeconomic variables which set a background for steel industry analysis different sources Volume data, steel demand calculation: steel production, steel trade, indirect steel trade worldsteel sources UN Comtrade, trade data - country coverage, frequency, data quality other providers, e.g. trade data, raw materials production 21

22 Summary Volume data are fundamental for steel market analysis production, trade, demand, raw materials, capacity Frequency of data monthly preferable provided on regular basis as close to reported period Data quality is essential Tight cooperation between providers and end-users of trade data for better understanding of needs and limitations 22

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