Outlook for Lodging Smith Travel Research Review
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1 Outlook for Lodging Smith Travel Research Review
2 Total US Industry Overview
3 Total US - Key Statistics 12-Months Ending December 2012 % Change Hotels 51.2 k Room Supply 1.8 bn 0.5% Room Demand 1.1 bn 3.0% Occupancy 61.4% 2.5% ADR $ % RevPAR $ % Room Revenue $115.3 bn 7.3%
4 Chain Scales Occupancy / ADR Percent Change December 2012 YTD Occupancy ADR Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
5 Total United States Active Development Pipeline Rooms Change From Last Year Phase December 2012 December 2011 Difference % Change In Construction 67,923 54,103 13, % Planned Pipeline 236, ,561-17, % Active Pipeline 304, ,664-3, % Planned Pipeline includes projects in Final Planning and Planning phases
6 Market Overview
7 Buncombe Co. Comparables Occupancy Percent Change December 2012 YTD Wilmington, NC 59.9% 10.2 Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge, TN 52.2% 8.5 Williamsburg, VA 43.2% 6.7 NC Total State United States Buncombe Co. 57.4% 61.4% 64.4% Myrtle Beach, SC Charleston, SC 49.9% 67.2%
8 Buncombe Co. Comparables ADR Percent Change December 2012 YTD Buncombe Co. $ Charleston, SC NC Total State United States Myrtle Beach, SC Williamsburg, VA $ $85.34 $ $ $ Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge, TN $ Wilmington, NC $
9 Buncombe Co. Comparables RevPAR Percent Change December 2012 YTD Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge, TN $ Williamsburg, VA Wilmington, NC $36.95 $ Buncombe Co. $ NC Total State United States $49.00 $ Charleston, SC $ Myrtle Beach, SC $
10 Western NC/Buncombe County Supply, Demand & Revenue Percent Change Total year 2012 vs Supply Demand Revenue Western NC 0.6 Buncombe County
11 Western NC/Buncombe County Supply, Demand & Revenue Percent Change Total year 2012 vs Supply Demand Revenue Western NC Buncombe County
12 Buncombe County Room Nights Available & Demand 12-month moving average 2004-current 2,400,000 2,200,000 2,000,000 Supply Demand 5 properties opened in ,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 Prior Peak: Mar m Demand is currently 1.54m room nights 1,000,
13 Buncombe County Room Nights Available 12-month moving average 2004-current 2,450,000 2,400,000 2,350,000 2,300,000 In April 2010, supply growth rate was 7.2% 2,250,000 2,200,000 2,150,000 2,100,000 2,050,000 2,000,
14 Western NC/Buncombe County Occupancy Percent 12-month moving average 2004-current Peak: 67.0% Feb Peak: 58.4% Oct Low: 57.8% Mar % 53.8% Western NC Buncombe Co Low: 49.2% Jan-Mar
15 Western NC/Buncombe County Occupancy Percent by Month Western NC Buncombe Co Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
16 Western NC/Buncombe County ADR 12-month moving average 2004-current $140 $130 $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 Prior Peak: $ Jun Prior Peak: $87.96 Aug Met previous peak in 51 months $60 Western NC $50 Buncombe Co $ $ $90.57
17 Western NC/Buncombe County ADR Percent Change 12-month moving average 2005-current May % Western NC Buncombe Co
18 Western NC/Buncombe County ADR by Month Western NC Buncombe Co Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
19 Buncombe County Occupancy/ADR Percent Change 12-month moving average 2005-current Occ ADR All RevPAR contribution from ADR
20 Buncombe County RevPAR 12-month moving average 2004-current RevPAR Jun 2008: $75.54 $
21 Buncombe County Hotel Class Segments Occupancy/ADR/RevPAR Percent Change Total year 2012 vs % 10% 8% Occupancy ADR RevPAR 8.9% 9.4% 6% 4% 4.1% 4.7% 3.6% 5.6% 3.7% 3.8% 2% 0% 0.1% Lux/Upper Up Upscale/Upper Mid Midscale/Econ
22 Buncombe County Group/Transient Occupancy Mix Monthly 2010-current Group Transient ***Segmentation data is for Upscale & above classes
23 Buncombe County Group/Transient Demand Contribution Monthly 2010-current 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Group Transient 0% ***Segmentation data is for Upscale & above classes
24 Buncombe County Day of Week Occupancy Annual 2010-current 90 Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
25 Current Buncombe Co. Hotel Stock Jan Properties 10-2, Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Unaffiliated Rooms (6.6k) 1,500 1, ,182 1,387 1,530 1, Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Unaffiliated
26 Buncombe Co. Hotel Pipeline Jan Recently opened: Aloft Downtown (115 Rooms) 2012 Indigo (116 Rooms) 2009 Hilton Biltmore Park Projects in the Planning Stages: Branded midscale property near airport Branded midscale property in downtown Branded upscale property near airport
27 Total United States Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) Outlook 2013 Forecast 2014 Forecast Supply 1.0% 1.5% Demand 1.8% 2.8% Occupancy 0.8% 1.3% ADR 4.9% 4.6% RevPAR 5.7% 6.0%
28 Chad Church Sr. Director, Operations STR x3400
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