Tomáš Fiala, Jitka Langhamrová University of Economics, Prague Faculty of Informatics and Statistics Department of Demography
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1 Prospects of the future demographic development in the Czech Republic and possible consequences of the population ageing in the sphere of social policy Tomáš Fiala, Jitka Langhamrová University of Economics, Prague Faculty of Informatics and Statistics Department of Demography
2 Demographic data of the Czech Republic presented In data of the territory of Bohemia, Moravia and the entire Czech Silesia Since 19 data recalculated for the current territory of the Czech Republic
3 Live births Deaths Main indicators Natural increase (the difference between live births and deaths) Net migration (the difference between the numer of immigrants and emigrants) Registrated by Statistical Office Corrected according to the results of census Total increase (the sum of natural increase and correctet net migration)
4 Two types of main indicators Absolute figures Rates (in ) (number of events per 1 inhabitants)
5 Live births and deaths in the Czech Republic 19 th century live births deaths natural increase
6 Live births and deaths in the Czech Republic 2 th century live births deaths natural increase
7 Births and deaths rates (in ) in the Czech Republic deaths rates births rates rates of natural increase : -22,
8 Population change in the Czech Republic 19 th century natural increase estimated total increase 2-2 estimated net migration
9 natural increase estimated total increase Population change in the Czech Republic 2 th century registragted net migration estimated net migration : , 1946: (transfer of the German population)
10 Population of the Czech Republic
11 Marriages, divorces, households
12 Marriage and divorce rates (in ) in the Czech Republic marriage rates divorce rates 2
13 1 Types of households in the Czech Republic (%) singles other uncomplete families complete families
14 1 6 + persons Size of households in the Czech Republic (%) persons persons persons persons person
15 Population projection of the future development. Assumptions: Mortality: further increase of life expectancy (average length of life) Ferility: three variants (low, medium, high) increase of total fertility rate (number of children per 1 woman) to 1.5/1.7/1.9 Migration: three variants (low, medium, high) annual net migration 3/6/9
16 Life expectancy in the Czech Republic all variants females males
17 ,,2,4,6,8 1, 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 2, 2,2 2,4 2,6 2,8 3, 3,2 3,4,,2,4,6,8 1, 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 2, 2,2 2,4 2,6 2,8 3, 3,2 3, Total fertility rate in the Czech Republic low high medium replacement level
18 Net migration in the Czech Republic high medium low
19 Prospects of the population development until 26
20 Live births in the Czech Republic high medium low
21 Total increase high medium high Natural increase medium low Population change in the Czech Republic low
22 Population of the Czech Republic high medium 12 1 low
23 Changes of the demographic structure (structure according to sex and age)
24 Czech Republic males females
25 15 Czech Republic males females
26 15 Czech Republic males females
27 15 Czech Republic males females
28 15 Czech Republic males females
29 15 Czech Republic , medium variant males females
30 15 Czech Republic , medium variant males females
31 The ageing of the population Decrease of the proportion of children, increase of the proportion of seniors. Causes of the ageing: Decreasing fertility in the past, relatively low value in the present time. Permanent decrease of mortality, increasing life expectation.
32 Average age in the Czech Republic 55 5 medium low 5 45 high
33 Age structure of the population in the Czech Republic (%) 8 years and more 6 79 years 4 59 years 2 39 years years medium variant 1
34 Migration cannot prevent the population ageing Higher net migration: Slower population ageing Population increase Rapid increase of the proportion of foreigners
35 Economic consequences of the population ageing Decrease of proportion of people in productive age Ageing of the population in productive age Increase of proportion of people in post-productive age Increase of the old-age dependency ratio (the ratio of the number of people in post-productive age to the number of people in productive age)
36 Economic generations Pre-productive age: 19 years Productive age: 2 (pens.age-1) years Post-productive age: pens.age and more years Pens.age supposed pension age
37 Proposed increase of pension age Supposed pension age in the Czech Republic males females with 2 children
38 Economic generations in the Czech Republic (%) post-productive age productive age medium variant pre-productive age 1
39 Age structure of persons in productive age in the Czech republic (%) 6 years and more 5 59 years 4 49 years 3 39 years 2 29 years
40 Old-age dependency ratio in the Czech Republic (%) (The number of people in pension age to 1 people in productive age) low medium high
41 Population of seniors (people at the age 6 and more) Higher number of seniors Ageing of seniors (increasing proportion of the oldest-old people)
42 Age composition of seniors in the Czech Republic medium variant 85 years and more years years years years years 5
43 Age structure of seniors in the Czech Republic (%) 85 years and more 8 84 years years 7 74 years years medium variant 6 64 years 1
44 Main possible consequences Increasing burden of the system of pension security Problems in financing the system of health care Problems in assurance of the social care for the oldest-old people
45 References: KAČEROVÁ, Eva. International Migration and Mobility of the EU Citizens in the Visegrad Countries: Comparison and Bilateral Flows. Lisboa In: ISI 27 [CD-ROM]. Lisboa : International Statistical Institute, 27, s KOSCHIN, Felix. Mortality in Oldest Old Ages and Old-age Security System. Poprad In: Amse 27 [CD-ROM]. Banská Bystrica : Občianske združenie Financ, 27, s ISBN LANGHAMROVÁ, Jitka, FIALA, Tomáš. Použití metod demografické projekce pro odhad budoucího vývoje lidských zdrojů. Nitra In: MVD 28 Konkurienceschopnosť a ekonomický rast: Európské a národné perspektívy [CD-ROM]. Nitra : SPU FEM, 28, s ISBN LANGHAMROVÁ, J. and FIALA, T. Ageing of the population and its impact on the financing of health care in the Czech Republic. Lisboa In: ISI 27 [CD-ROM]. Lisboa, International Statistical Institute, 1 4, 27.
46 This article came into being within the framework of the long-term research project 2D626, "Reproduction of Human Capital", financed by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sport within the framework of National Research Program II.
47 Thank you for your attention Tomáš Fiala, Jitka Langhamrová Department of Demography Faculty of Informatics and Statistics University of Economics, Prague nám. W. Churchilla Praha 3 fiala@vse.cz langhamj@vse.cz
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