Overview of Small Wind Turbines. Trudy Forsyth May 2008

Transcription

1 Overview of Small Wind Turbines Trudy Forsyth May 2008

2 Presentation Overview DW Goal Residential policy Small wind market information Summary of AWEA Global Market Report Market diffusion theory and real application Summary of recent Distributed Wind Application Report

3 DOE/NREL DW Overview Goal: By 2015, the market for distributed wind technologies will be expanded five-fold from a 2007 baseline. This five-fold increase will be accomplished through the removal of technology, market, and implementation barriers for small wind technologies. Assumes 22% per year compounding AWEA data shows market growth at 14 25% Technology Viability 2 rounds of Small Wind Independent Testing Considering Mid-size turbine development likely to be through 2013 Technology Acceptance - WPA Small wind market and outreach to stakeholders increase DW deployment Initiate new demonstrations of small wind expand market

4 Residential Small Wind Incentives Property Tax Incentives Income Tax Credits RPS Puerto Rico BUYDOWNS/GRANTS PRODUCTIVITY INCENTIVES MINOR INCENTIVES Buydown/Grants Productivity Productivity Incentives & Loans Incentives Loans Buydown/Grants & Net Metering Buydown/Grants, Net Metering, & Loans Net Metering, Loans & Prod. Incentives Net Metering & Prod. Incentives Net Metering & Loans Net Metering Future state incentive in development IN, CO, OR, CT, LIPA Federal Incentives: Mainstay Energy green tag purchase (CA excluded); USDA Federal Farm Bill Title 9006 grant for rural areas May 10, 2007

5 NREL market info Consumers tend to live in their homes on an average of 7 years need to meet that payback Increasing energy (gasoline, home heating oil, natural gas) costs motivate consumers Some consumers don t care about cost want independence from the utility grid Takes several years for consumers to make a purchase decision

6 AWEA Small Wind Turbine Global Market Study SWT sold as of 12/31/ by US manufacturers for US market 909 by US manufacturers for non-us market 15 by non-us manufacturers for US market Leading market CA, NY, VT, MA, PA, OH, TX, ME & AZ 51% rural or suburban homes 19% farms 10% small businesses 10% schools or public facilities Priority states and activities CA (zoning), NY (zoning), CO, MA (zoning), KS (net metering & rebates), MN (rebates, zoning), MI (rebates), ND (rebates), PA (rebates, zoning)

7 Diffusion of Innovation Theory Innovation attributes that increase the rate of adoption* Relative advantage the degree to which an innovation is perceived as being better than the idea it supersedes Compatability the degree to which an innovation is perceived as consistent with existing sociocultural values and beliefs Complexity the degree to which an innovation is perceived as relatively difficult to understand and use Trialability the degree to which an innovations may be experimented with on a limited basis Observability the degree to which an innovation are visible to others Perceived risk impede adoption Other issues Financial wherewithal to purchase or finance Availability of support system Must have importance in the view of the purchaser Must be easily understood by purchaser Product must be available through regular supply channels *Rogers, Everett M Diffusion of Innovations, Fourth Edition, New York: The Free Press

8 Rural Residential Market Most installed in San Bernadino County Turbine 1 Turbine 2 Turbine 3 Turbine turbines installed to date (since 2000), good incentives, high electricity rates (43 cents/kwh Tier 3), suburban residents

9 Guasti Installations SWT Installations ( ) Number of Units (Annually) Service Interruptions Rolling Blackouts Incentive Decreased Incentive Increased Number of Units (Cumulative) * Year 0 Annual Installations Cumulative Installations * As of 3/07

10 Market Assessment Summary Market Segments Small-Scale Remote Power US International Residential Power Farm/Business/Ind Power Wind/Diesel Power Net Billing, on-site Irrigation, Industrial Small-Scale Community Power 300W 1 kw 5 kw 10 kw 20 kw 50 kw 65 kw 100 kw 200 kw 300 kw 400 kw 500 kw 600 kw 700 kw + DOE Size Categories Advanced Small Wind Turbine Advanced Distributed Wind Turbine US Commercial Products Non-US Commercial Products* Refurbished Commercial Prototype * - Currently sold in the US 5/17/07

11 Potential DWT Market Applications Studies - # of units Preliminary Domestic Market Assessment Number of Units 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Year Wind/Diesel "Small-Scale" Community Farm/Industrial/Bus Residential Off-grid In addition to a very strong international market

12 Potential DWT Market Applications Studies MWs Potential US MW Installed Capacity MW Capacity Year "Small-scale" Community Wind/Diesel Farm/Industrial Residential Off-grid