Planning and Operating an Integrated Grid

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1 Planning and Operating an Integrated Grid Harvard Electricity Policy Group March 2015 Bernie Neenan EPRI

2 Distributed Energy s and Distribution s Do we need an Independent Distribution Operator (DSO) Should LMP pricing be employed? Should Smart Inverters be Required? What Planning and Operational Processes are Needed 2

3 Distributed Solar Penetration by State DC Penetration Level >4% 1-4% % <.01% 0% Aggregate U.S. PV Penetration: ~1%... But PV growth occurring in nearly all states Key Drivers: 1) economics, 2) policy mandates, 3) financing options Sources: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA 3

4 Cumulative PV (MW) Recent PV Growth in Hawaii % Residential (MW) % Residential (s) Source: Hawaiian Electric Rapid growth of residential PV over the last 3-4 years Hawaiian Electric Generation by Fuel Type PV 14% Biodiesel 6% During the daytime, PV could be supplying 25-30% of demand Wind 5% Coal 9% Refuse 3% Fuel Oil 63% Source: Hawaiian Electric PSIP 4

5 HI CA NY NJ RI NM AZ CT MI NV FL TX MA OH VT PA MD DE MO CO SC NC UT LA VA OR IL WA Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kwh) Percent Difference (%) Assessing PV Retail Rate Parity Across U.S. States PV LCOE (Own) vs. Retail LCOE $0.50 Levelized Retail Electricity Rate ($/kwh) Own vs Utility LCOE Percent Difference (%) PV LCOE Own ($/kwh) 400% $ % $ % $ % $0.30 $0.25 $0.20 $0.15 $0.10 $0.05 $- 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% -100% Notes: Data from 3 rd party installers of avg. all-in install price to end customers for systems 1-10kW. Prices are averages over past 6 mos. (Mar- Aug, 2014). Different samples sizes per state. No rebates or incentives included in price points. Lease data is derived from a variety of structures (e.g., fixed, % escalation, etc.). Avg. capacity factors used for individual states. 5

6 Its Not Just Solar That is Disrupting the Sector Status Quo Combined Heat and Power Demand Response Home Energy Management Rooftop Solar Electric Vehicles Large-Scale Solar Distributed Energy s (DER) 6

7 Strategic Planning with DER Research Questions Net Benefits of (DER)? Community Solar? Storage Deployment? Proactively Upgrade? Smart Inverter? Core Assumptions Study Timeframe Mix Regulatory Framework Expected DER Growth Environmental Impact Principles Bottom-up Impact Analyses Accommodation at all Levels Count all Benefits/ Cost, but Only Once Multiple Perspectives on Net Benefits Analytical process must be consistent, repeatable, and transparent 7

8 EPRI s Integrated Grid Benefit-Cost Framework Core Assumptions Market Conditions Adoption/ Deployment Scenarios Distribution Hosting Energy Thermal Adequacy Flexibility 3 Bulk Reliability Performance Expansion Operational Practices & Simulation 6 5 Net Costs Benefits Benefit/Cost Societal Costs/Benefits Customer or Owner Cost/Benefits 8

9 Integrated Grid Benefit Cost Framework Distribution B Hosting Analysis Hosting Optimal Hos ting Capa city Location Energy Feeder Models A 1 Load Data Feeder Performance Characterization DER Data DER Performance Characterization Feeder Hosting Capa city Analys is C Substation Level Hosting for DER Feeder Clustering Based on Hosting Mitigation Evaluation Bulk Analysis 4 Energy Analysis Feeder Clustering Based on Energy Thermal Feeder-Specific Hosting for DER D Capa city Analys is E Reliability Analysis Capa city Analys is Benefit/Cost Analysis Losses/Consumption Results Extrapolated to Sys tem Energy Analysis on B Select Feeders Reliability Ass et Deferral Benefit/Cost Reliability Analysis Core Assumptions Market Conditions 3 Adoption/ Deployment Scenarios Adequacy Existing Generation Adequacy LOLE/ Reserve Margin & Credit Flexibility Assessment Flexibility Metrics Performance Epxansion New s/ Expansion Plan Reserve & Operational Changes New Reserve & Operational Modes Load Forecasts Costs of new resources Cost of Base Case Variability Profiles 2 Hosting PV & Demand Profiles (See Fig. 5.3) 5 Expansion Dispatches Operational Simulations DER Scenarios Technology options Flexibility Existing Model(s) Expansion Existing Network Model Frequency Reliability Production Costs & Marginal Costs Costs of mitigation/ upgrades Upgrades Line Type Legend Data Input Final Result Feed-Forward Result Feed Back Result Operational Practices & Simulation Performance Studies Thermal / Voltage PQ & Protection Societal Costs/Benefit s Benefits Customer or Owner Cost/Benefits 6 Bulk Integrated Grid Bulk Analysis Framework Net Costs Cost of Losses Cost of Scenario Losses 9

10 Distribution Framework Flowchart B Hosting Analysis Feeder Models Optimal Hosting Location Feeder-Specific Hosting for DER Substation Level Hosting for DER Bulk Analysis Hosting Analysis A Feeder Hosting Analysis Feeder Clustering Based on Hosting Mitigation Evaluation Load Data Feeder Performance Characterization C Energy Analysis Feeder Clustering Based on Energy Energy Analysis on B Select Feeders Losses/Consumption Results Extrapolated to Benefit/Cost Analysis Energy Analysis DER Data DER Performance Characterization D Analysis E Reliability Analysis Analysis Asset Deferral Analysis Reliability Analysis 10

11 Various Feeders Feeder Hosting : How much PV can a feeder accommodate before needing upgrades? Location may be the driver * Streamlined Methods for Determining Feeder Hosting for PV, EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: Accommodation can be load dependent D3 D2 D1 P5 P4 P3 P2 P1 G3 G2 G1 T2 T1 R4 R3 R2 R1 J1 Upgrades Required No Issues Maybe Issues MW of Connected PV MW of Consumer PV 11

12 Integrated Grid Benefit Cost Framework Core Assumptions Market Conditions Adoption/ Deployment Scenarios Distribution Hosting Energy Thermal Adequacy Flexibility 3 Bulk Reliability Performance Expansion Operational Practices & Simulation 6 5 Net Costs Benefits Benefit/Cost Societal Costs/Benefit s Customer or Owner Cost/Benefits 12

13 Integrated Grid: Bulk Analysis Integrated Grid Bulk Analysis Framework Existing Generation Load Forecasts Adequacy LOLE/ Reserve Margin & Credit Epxansion New s/ Expansion Plan Costs of new resources Cost of Base Case 1 RESOURCE ADEQUACY Variability Profiles Hosting PV & Demand Profiles (See Fig. 5.3) Flexibility Assessment Flexibility Metrics 2 FLEXIBILITY DER Scenarios 3 OPERATIONAL SIMULATION Operational Simulations Reserve & Operational Changes Technology options Dispatches New Reserve & Operational Modes Reliability Production Costs & Marginal Costs 5 TRANSMISSION EXPANSION Existing Model(s) Expansion Existing Network Model Frequency Performance Studies Costs of mitigation/ upgrades Upgrades Thermal / Voltage PQ & Protection Losses 4 TRANSMISSION PERFORMANCE 13 Line Type Legend Data Input Final Result Feed-Forward Result Feed Back Result Cost of Losses Cost of Scenario

14 Integrated Grid Methodology The Integrated Grid s benefit-cost framework contains both bulk system and distribution system elements. Distribution Hosting Energy Scenario Definition Market Conditions Assumptions DER Adoption Adequacy Bulk Reliability Performance Cost Changes Benefit/Cost Societal Costs/Benefits Customer or Owner Cost/Benefits Flexibility Expansion Operational Practices & Simulation 14

15 DER Benefits and Costs Element Benefit Cost Loss Reduction Upgrade Deferral Reconductoring Line Regulators/STATCOMS Distribution Relaying /Protection LTC accelerated wear Voltage upgrade Smart Inverters O&M Generation Mix/Requirement Changes Deferral of Upgrades losses Bulk Power O&M Fuel Savings Congestion Operations/Uncertainty Customer DER Investments Emissions - CO2/GHG, Hg, SOx, NOx Societal Cyber Security Health Macroeconomic effects 15

16 EPRI s Benefit-Cost Framework Distribution Bulk Power Customer Net Capital Cost Changes Net O&M Cost Changes (Avoided less Incurred) Net Capital Cost Changes Net Fuel/O&M Changes (Avoided less Incurred) Reliability Improvement Resiliency Improvement Customer Equipment Cost Monetization Protocols Change in Utility Cost (The Utility-Cost Function) Direct Customer Benefits Net Societal Benefits Societal Reduced/Increased Emissions General Economic Effects Monetization Protocols Societal Benefits 16

17 IG Final report: ductabstract.aspx?productid= IG Executive Summary: ductabstract.aspx?productid=

18 Bernie Neenan Senior Technical Executive Together Shaping the Future of Electricity 18

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