Doğuş Otomotiv. March, 2009

Transcription

1 Doğuş Otomotiv March, 2009

2 Agenda Doğuş Group Doğuş Otomotiv Macroeconomic Outlook Automotive Market Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results New Projects Expectations Appendix 2

3 Group Structure Financial Services Automotive Construction Media Tourism & Leisure Real Estate Energy Corporate Social Responsibility 3

5 Presence in Every Link of Automotive Value Chain DOAS produces, finances, sells, rents, insures, services, repairs and inspects 5

6 Widest Retail & Services Network in Turkey Approx. 500 customer points, widest among the competitors (*) DOAS brands, including VW, Audi, Porsche, Scania, Seat, Krone, VW Marine, Scania Marine, Skoda as of end

7 Success Story of DOAS Partnership with LeasePlan in fleet rental Bugatti representative Car park more than 650K units Porsche Dealership in Lausanne Krone & Meiller Production Agreements IPO TÜV TURK Doğuş Group established subsidiaries for distributing VW, Audi & Porsche Seat & Skoda contract signed (Partnership with Yūce Oto) Krone contract signed Bentley LOI OTO-FIX Lamborghini LOI Scania contract signed JV in consumer financing with VW Financial Services AG Meiller Distribution Thermoking Distribution VW Marine Engines Used car operations established Merger of automotive companies under DOAS M/S:Market Share M/S: 0.5% M/S: 5.8% M/S: 12.0% M/S: 10.6% After Dogus Otomotiv became the sole importer and distributor of VW brand vehicles in Turkey, VW brands market share increased from 0.5% in 1993 to 12% in

8 Key Strengths of DOAS Leader in import market in Turkey with 18% m/s among c. 30 pure importers One-stop shopping concept showroom, after sales services, consumer financing, insurance Well-positioned multi-brand products 15 different brands Creating its own brands DOD, Oto-fix Youngest fleet in the market with new launches every year, has more than 75 models Widespread network and customer base, widest network with c.500 customer points Customer focus, close relations with customers result in loyalty to the brands Well-equipped IT infrastructure Advanced financial risk management systems daily monitoring of the FX position Profit oriented growth strategy profitability always kept without losing market share 9

9 DOAS Position in the Market LCV PV Passat is the segment leader VW LCVs are the market leader in imports, #3 in total market Golf is #2 in its segment VW PVs ranked 7th in the market HCV Scania is the market leader in import with 9.4% m/s Luxury Segment Krone is the best selling import trailer with 12.0% m/s 12 Bentleys, 9 Lamborghinis sold in 2008 Audi is the leader of its segment Porsche Cayenne is segment leader of gasoline SUV segment Porsche is the best selling brand of luxury sport segment 10

10 Recent Launches Volkswagen PV Volkswagen LCV Audi Porsche Seat Bentley Lamborghini Scania Krone Tiguan, Passat Coupe, Scirocco, New Golf Caddy Maxi, Caddy Life, Transporter Sportsline, Caravelle Limited Edition A4, A4 Avant, A3 Cabrio, A3 (face lift), RS6 Cayenne GTS, 911 GT2, Carrera(facelift), Boxster(facelift), Cayman(facelift) Altea Freetrack, New Ibiza, Leon (face lift) Continental Flying Spur, Continental GT/GTC, Arnage T Gallardo G series Cooliner Duoplex 11

12 Current Macroeconomic Outlook Structural improvements in Turkish economy (social security reform, tax reform, banking sector restructuring, independent central bank, increased transparency in fiscal accounts) Tight fiscal policy (though relatively looser compared to past years) Relations with IMF to continue Ongoing disinflation efforts (Annual CPI at 7.73% as of end-feb 09) Reforms on EU convergence C/A deficit at concerning level (currently financable via FDI and portfolio investments) Net FDI inflow declines (In 2008, net FDI realized at US$ 17.7bn, down by 20% YoY) Global credit crunch Shrinkage in major economies Increasing risk aversion 13

13 Macroeconomic Indicators 35% YoY Inflation (%) Nominal Exchange Rates 30% % 20% 15% 10% % % 0% 6.43% Source: TURKSTAT Source: CBT, Garanti Bank Benchmark & O/N Interest Rates (%) Source: CBT, ISE 14 May-03 Aug-03 Nov-03 Feb-04 May-04 Aug-04 Nov-04 Feb-05 May-05 Aug-05 Nov-05 Feb-06 May-06 Aug-06 Nov-06 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 Annual CPI Annual PPI Mar-03 Jun-04 Sep-05 Dec-06 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 USD/TRY EUR/TRY Basket(0,5USD+0,5EUR) 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 14.89% 10.0% 12.2% 0.0% Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Benchmark Int. Rates (compound, %) O/N Int. Rates (compound,%)

14 Macroeconomic Indicators Foreign Trade Volume (US$bn) FDI Inflows in OECD Countries (US$bn) Exports Imports Slovak Rep. Hungary Czech Republic Poland Turkey Mexico Source: TURKSTAT Source: OECD Trends and Recent Developments in FDI Report Auto Loan Rates (%) Consumer Confidence Index TRY EURO USD Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Source: VDF Source: TURKSTAT 15

16 Turkish Automotive Market Outlook Huge upside potential in the domestic market... Approx. 16mn more vehicles need to be sold in Turkey to reach the level of Bulgaria Vehicle Ownership per 1000 inhabitants (PV+LCV) USA Italy Germany UK France EU Average Greece Poland Bulgaria Turkey Source: OSD (2007) 17

17 Turkish Automotive Market Outlook Turkish Automotive Market (units) 900, , , , , , , , , , , ,272 Russia crisis 388, , &2001 Economic crisis 179, , , , , ,877 Effects of global crisis 618, ,395 Turbulence in global markets July ,000 elections E 17% YoY decrease in total market (PV, LCV, HCV) in

18 2008 Market Review % 600, ,000-15% -19% 619K 516K 400, , , K 307K 233K 189K -23% 100,000 0 PV LCV HCV TOTAL 26K 20K Others 22% Ford 17% Others 27% Ford 15% Toyota 5% Peugeot 4% Opel 6% Hyundai 6% Fiat 13% Renault 15% DOAS 11% Toyota 5% Peugeot 4% Opel 6% Hyundai 7% Fiat 12% Renault 14% DOAS 11% 19

19 DOAS Sales Performance Source: ADA, DOAS WHOLESALES (unit) 2M09 2M08 YoY YoY VW 2,580 6,755-62% 40,454 53,779-25% VW PV 1,932 3,321-42% 21,485 26,110-18% VW LCV 648 3,434-81% 18,969 27,669-31% AUDI % 5,647 5,898-4% PORSCHE % % BENTLEY % % LAMBORGHINI % SEAT % 2,874 3,426-16% SKODA % 3,558 5,291-33% SCANIA % 1,894 2,174-13% KRONE % % MEILLER % % TOTAL 3,587 9,022-60% 55,307 71,689-23% Market Size PV 26,393 42,056-37% 307, ,416-15% LCV 12,636 28,359-55% 188, ,971-19% HCV 1,078 3,129-66% 20,227 26,383-23% TOTAL 40,107 73,544-45% 516, ,770-17% DOAS Market Share PV 10.4% 12.2% 11.0% 11.4% LCV 5.1% 12.1% 10.0% 11.9% HCV 15.7% 12.2% 9.4% 8.2% TOTAL 8.9% 12.2% 10.6% 11.4% 20

21 DOAS Headline Figures - I Vehicle Sales Volume 9M08 9M07 YoY ch. Unit sales 44,859 45,134-1% 2nd hand sales 11,019 9,223 19% P&L (US$ mn) 9M08 9M07 YoY ch. Revenues 1,422 1,287 10% Gross Profit % Gross Margin 13.3% 14.8% - Operating Profit % Operating Margin 1.9% 4.3% - EBITDA % EBITDA Margin 2.8% 5.0% - Net Profit (26) % Net Margin (1.8%) 3.3% - 22

22 DOAS Headline Figures - II BS (US$ mn) 30-Sep Dec-2007 ch. Total Assets % Shareholders' Equity % Capital Expenditures % Net Cash (Debt) (95) (112) -15% Net Working Capital (34) 9-478% Turnovers (days) Receivable Turnover % Inventory Turnover % Payable Turnover % 23

24 Trailer Production with Krone Krone is leader of the import market with 45% market share (12% in total, ranking 4th) Expansion of authorized dealership and service network in 2007 Initial capacity will be 5,000 and increased to 10,000 after 1st year 90% of production will be diverted to exports. Estimated capex is US$20 mn for 49% share 25

25 Tipper Production with Meiller Dogus Otomotiv has become the main exclusive importer and distributor of of the Meiller brand in Turkey in February As per the Letter of Intent (LoI) signed in October 2007, Dogus Otomotiv and Meiller formed a joint venture (JV) company The JV is manufacturing Meiller brand tippers and semi-trailer tippers in Turkey. In the newly established JV company Dogus Otomotiv holds 49% stake, while the remaining 51% is owned by Meiller. The plant has become operational in 1Q08, with 3,000 units annual production capacity. Almost 80% of the production will be exported. Dogus Otomotiv and Meiller have invested a total EUR10mn for the plant. 26

26 Porsche Sales in Lausanne Marketing, sales and after-sales retail operations of Porsche in Lausanne, Switzerland In Switzerland; an important market for Porsche, 1,924 units of Porsche cars sold in 2008 vs 157 in Turkey Establishment of a new showroom in Lausanne will be one of Switzerland s largest Porsche outlet Operations will start in 1H09 Estimated investment is US$18 mn 27

28 Expectations January-December 2009E Total Market (PV,LCV,HCV) , , ,770 DOAS Market share 12.0% 10.6% 11.4% DOD 2nd hand car sales 12,000 13,121 13, E 2008E 2007 Revenues (US$mn) 1,150 1,600 1,979 Gross Margin % % 13.8% Operating Profit Margin % % 3.4% 2009E Average $/TRY Rate

30 VDF is a hidden value... Consumer Finance 2007 New contracts: 38,776 units Credits Given: TRY 968 mn Portfolio: 98,432 units Market Share: 14% among all financial institutions 2008 New contracts: 25,198 units (24% yoy decrease) Credits Given: TRY 767 mn (21% yoy decrease) Portfolio: 81,141 units (18% yoy decrease) Market Share: 11% among all financial institutions 31

31 Motor Vehicle Inspection Stations (MVIS) TUVTURK a cash cow business of DOAS, Akfen Holding and TÜV SÜD Right to build & operate MVIS in Turkey for 20 years in exchange of US$552mn. 189 fixed and 38 mobile inspection stations, built until end-1q09 with an investment of US$200mn. The operations in every region, except Istanbul, will be carried out by the business associates (BA) for 20 years. The BAs will share their revenues with the government: 1-3rd years: 30%; 4-10th years: 40% and 11-20th years: 50%...and with TUVTURK consortium: 1-10th years 7% and 11-20th years: 20% They will also pay one-time license fees to the consortium totalling US$750mn. The MVIS business is expected to generate US$15bn revenues in 20 years with US$2.5bn EBITDA. 32

32 DOD: Used Car Sales Almost 100% of the second-hand vehicles sales market is non-organized. The market is expected to grow exponentially in the coming years, due to increase in consumer awareness about organized side and much more favorable tax rates compared to new cars. DOD is the largest organized retailer of the used car business. The only brand that provides guarantee for the second hand cars which increases the consumer confidence. DOD increased its sales volume by 1% YoY to 13,121 vehicles in Expected sales volume for 2009 is 12,000 i.e. a 9% YoY decrease over DOD Sales Performance % % % % E 33

33 DOAS Headline Figures Vehicle Sales Volume YoY ch. Unit sales 76,902 70,808-8% 2nd hand sales 7,760 13,024 68% P&L (US$ mn) YoY ch. Revenues 1,766 1,979 12% Gross Profit % Gross Margin 11.5% 13.8% Operating Profit % Operating Margin 2.3% 3.4% EBITDA % EBITDA Margin 2.8% 4.1% Net Profit % Net Margin 0.9% 2.5% Dividends % Yield 1.7% 5.5% 34

34 DOAS Headline Figures BS (US$ mn) YoY ch. Total Assets % Shareholders' Equity % Capital Expenditures % Net Cash (Debt) 41 (43) - Net Working Capital % Turnovers (days) Receivable Turnover % Inventory Turnover % Payable Turnover % 35

35 Stock Performance Closing Price (TRY) (27Feb09) wk High (TRY) (12Mar08) 52 wk Low (TRY) (20Nov08) % Price Change 1 Month Ago -13.9% % Price Change 3 Months Ago 1.8% % Price Change 6 Months Ago -58.5% % Price Change 1 Year Ago -74.7% 0.20 XU-100 Relative 2.00 doas (YTL) /04 03/05 12/05 09/06 06/07 03/08 12/08 Mcap (TRYmn) (27Feb09) Mcap (US$mn) (27Feb09) SHAREHOLDERS STRUCTURE DOĞUŞ HOLDİNG A.Ş. DOĞUŞ ARAŞTIRMA GEL. VE MÜŞ. HİZM.A.Ş. OTHER DOĞUŞ GROUP COMPANIES PUBLICLY TRADED TOTAL % Share 35.21% 30.29% 0.00% 34.50% % Amount (TRY) 38,730,609 33,319, ,950, ,000,000 36

36 Thank You..

37 Contact Doğuş Otomotiv Investor Relations Department Tel: Fax: Address: Doğuş Otomotiv Servis ve Ticaret A.Ş. Atatürk Mahallesi, Anadolu Caddesi, No:22, Şekerpınar, Çayırova/Kocaeli, TURKEY 38

38 Disclaimer Dogus Otomotiv Servis ve Ticaret A.S. (the DOAS ) has prepared this presentation documents (the Document ) consisting of documents and appendixes thereto for the sole purposes of providing information and projections and statements relating to the DOAS (the Information ). DOAS cannot guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of such information, and cannot be responsible for the results. The Information is subject to change without any notice. Neither the Document nor the Information can construe any investment advise, or an offer to buy or sell DOAS shares. This Document and/or the Information cannot be copied, disclosed or distributed to any person other than the person to whom the Document and/or Information delivered or sent by DOAS or who required a copy of the same from the DOAS. Any and all information contained in this document are strictly confidential. 39