Is your house at risk from flooding?

Transcription

1 Is your house at risk from flooding? Prepared for the NCEO/CEOI Joint Science Conference at Nottingham University JBA Contact Details for more information: t: +44 (0) September 2012

2 Hebden Bridge, North Yorkshire Photography by Ian Gaskell 2

3 Shiremoor, Newcastle upon Tyne Photography by Nadia McPherson 3

4 05/03/ /03/ /03/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /05/ /05/ /05/ /05/ /05/ /05/ /06/ /06/ /06/ /06/ /06/ /06/ /06/ /06/ /06/ /06/ /06/ /06/ /07/ /07/ /07/ /07/ /07/ /07/ /07/ /07/2012 Count UK flooding April to July Flood Alert Flood Warning 2% 27% 11% 10% 31% 3% 16% Anglian Region Environment Agency Wales Midlands Region North East Region North West Region South East Region South West Region 100 Severe Flood Warning March April May June July March April May June July 4

5 Hazard mapping and insurance 28 million households 3.5 million outside of flood zones by JBA but potentially not by other models. JBA Other model vendor 5

6 Who we are 6

7 Maps and models Module Our solution Hazard modelling Exposure modelling Hazard mapping Stochastic event set Built environment modelling Vulnerability functions Flood hazard maps JCALF probabilistic model Hazard mapping Probabilistic modelling 7

8 UK s highest resolution hazard maps 1. Essential tool for the insurance industry 2. 6 flood perils in the UK 3. Detailed 2D hydrodynamic modelling 8

9 JBA s 2D hydrodynamic technology JFlow+ river Runs on off the shelf graphics cards and processors. 9

10 Sea Surge 1/250-year worst case scenario London 10

11 What this means Good planning decisions can be made. Developers can avoid building on flood plains. Customers have access to fair insurance based on accurate information 11

12 Buildings damage (%) It doesn t end there... Event Set Vulnerability Built environment gauging stations JBA hydrometric areas gauging stations JBA hydrometric areas Water depth (m) 12

13 Understanding the built environment Heavy industry Offices 13

14 Loss analysis implications 1/250 1/100 1/20 year undefended flood extent 1/1500 1/50 1/500 Analysis A Address geocoded location Analysis B Site boundary Analysis C PieceRisk polygons Analysis D Single PieceRisk within site 14

15 Loss (Billion EUROs) Results implications BASF Address - Address Point (A) Point (A) BASF Site Boundary - Site Boundary (B) (B) BASF PieceRisk - PieceRisk (C) (C) BASF Single - Single PieceRisk PieceRisk (D) (D) Return Period (yrs) 15

16 Accounting for uncertainty 50% of area floods, which has 5 detached houses / 5 terraced houses: all 5 detached flood = value all 5 terraced flood = value 4 detached, 1 terraced flood = value 3 terraced, 1 detached flood = value... Never more than 5 houses flooded. Lots of different loss estimates possible: mean and SD 16

17 Summary Hazard mapping: 1. JBA is leading provider of flood hazard maps 2. Award nominated hydraulics 2D model JFlow+ 3. Flood extents and depth grids used for risk assessment, underwriting, planning Probabilistic modelling: 1. Probabilistic modelling: event set, vulnerability and built environment 2. Understanding uncertainty and limitations 3. Providing probabilistic loss estimate to the insurance industry 17

18 Hebden Bridge, North Yorkshire Comparison with JBA s modelled river flood map: 0.6m 0.8m 0.3m Photography by Ian Gaskell 18

19 Shiremoor, Newcastle upon Tyne Comparison with JBA s surface water flood map: 0.2m 0.3m 0.1m Photography by Nadia McPherson 19

20 IPR, copyright and disclaimer JBA Risk Management Limited 2012 Background maps, where shown: Bing Maps 2012 Microsoft Corporation and its data suppliers Title to and copyright and all other intellectual property rights in the maps described herein and in the data specifications, drawings, descriptions and documentation provided by JBA Risk Management Limited belong to and shall remain the property of JBA Risk Management Limited. All flood data is the property of JBA Risk Management Limited and must not be copied or used other than as authorised in writing by JBA Risk Management Limited. CLIENT shall not (save only as may be permitted by law and not otherwise) copy, reproduce, record, adapt, modify, reformat, reverse compile them in whole or in part, or do any other such act which may affect JBA Risk Management Limited's rights or interests therein. This document has been prepared as a presentation for CLIENT. JBA Risk Management Limited accepts no responsibility or liability for any use that is made of this document or the information it contains. The contents of this document deal with the probabilities of natural hazards, which are highly uncertain. JBA Risk Management Limited cannot and does not represent, warrant or guarantee the accuracy of the contents of this document or the results presented herein. The modelling work carried out uses underlying information compiled and provided by third parties which is not guaranteed. JBA Risk Management Limited gives no warranty, guarantee or other assurance that the underlying information is accurate, complete or up-to-date. JBA Risk Management Limited does not warrant that the results will meet the present or future requirements of any party to which the results are provided. All parties are cautioned against placing undue reliance upon any statements contained in the output from this project. 20