Urban Growth in China: Challenges and Prospects

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1 Urban Growth in China: Challenges and Prospects Karen C. Seto Department of Geological and Environmental Sciences and Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies Stanford University

2 Urbanization in a global context >50% of world population 30% urban in 1950, estimated 60% urban in megacities > 10 million 22 cities with 5 with 10 million 370 cities with 1 to 5 million 440 cities with 0.5 to 1 million Highest growth rates in medium-sized cities (1-5 million)

3 Urban Population as Percentage of Total Population Percent Africa Asia Centra America Europe North America South America Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects

4 Forecasted Megacities, 2015 Sources: Kraas, Univ. of Cologne and United Nations, 2004

5 Crisis or Opportunity? Cities as problems Cities as solutions Environmental degradation Loss of agricultural land Pressure on natural resources (energy, water, land) Inadequate housing Consumption patterns Urban sprawl Social alienation Driving forces in economic growth Efficient use of infrastructure Delivery of health services Sanitation Education Saving land for nature Efficient natural resource use Creative social capital

6 Urbanization trends in China One quarter of world s 500 largest urban areas in China 2050: China s urban population increase by mil urbanization rate: 36% 2050 urbanization rate: 70% US (2000): 77% Japan (2000): 79% Germany (2000): 88%

7 Comparative Urbanization Trends Population, 2000 > 10 million > 1 million China 3 34 US ,000-1 mill 200, , Sources: China Population Yearbook and US Census

8 Comparative Urbanization Trends 2000 EMR 2000 EMR Shanghai 10,840,000 18,420,000 New York 8,008,000 22,000,000 Beijing 12,780,000 15,200,000 Los Angeles 3,694,000 18,080,000 Tianjin 5,096,000 9,848,000 Chicago 2,896,000 9,312,000 Wuhan 4,488,000 7,182,000 Houston 1,954,000 4,407,000 Guangzhou 4,154,000 10,156,000 Philadelphia 1,517,000 5,952,000 Shenyang 3,981,000 6,730,000 Phoenix 1,321,000 3,072,000 Chongqing 3,934,000 7,577,000 San Diego 1,223,000 2,780,000 Nanjing 2,822,000 6,238,000 Dallas 1,188,000 4,802,000 Harbin 2,672,000 9,630,000 San Antonio 1,144,000 1,538,000 Xian 2,589,000 5,860,000 Detroit 951,000 5,467,000 Chengdu 2,341,000 9,901,000 San Jose 911,000 6,816,000 Sources: China Population Yearbook and US Census

9 Policy Reforms and Urban Growth in China Began in 1978 Decentralization Open-door, FDI Agricultural reforms Land-use rights Household registration system (hukou) Work unit (danwei) Rural-urban migration Rapid urban growth Agricultural expansion & intensification GDP, : 8-14% Increase in income - vehicles - housing - changes in diet

10 China s Urban and Rural Population, Percentage of Total Population Urban Rural Year Source: China Statistical Yearbook, various years

11 Structure of China s Economy, Percentage of GDP Services Industry Agriculture Year Source: China Statistical Yearbook, various years

12 Structure of China s Labor Force, Percentage of Employment Services Industry Agriculture Year Source: China Statistical Yearbook, various years

13 Land-use trends in China Land use Change (1000 ha) % Change Cropland 138, , , Paddy 35, , Dryland 102, Forests Grassland 306, , , Urban Unused land 200, , Source: Hanqin Tian, Auburn University, unpublished data

14 1980s: Focus on coastal areas Open cities, Special Economic Zones 1990s: Attention shifts inland, Go West program Chengdu Pearl River Delta

15 Why Pearl River Delta, Guangdong Province? real GDP growth: 8-18% Major agricultural region and national leader in production of: - lychees, bananas, pond fish, sugar cane Special Economic Zones Geographic proximity to Hong Kong Cultural ties to overseas Chinese investors

25 Urban Land, Pearl River Delta (km 2 ) Seto et al., in prep

26 Residential Floor Space, Guangdong Province, urban rural Source: Statistical Bureau of Guangdong, 2002

27 Main Indicators of Transportation Services, Guangdong Province Length (km) (000s) Highways Motor Vehicles Year Source: Statistical Bureau of Guangdong, 2004

28 Agricultural Land Loss For 10 Cities, Urbanization and agricultural land loss Agricultural Land Agricultural Land Loss Source: Seto et al., Nature.

29 Carbon Emissions Associated with Urban Growth Urban Land Use Change PRD Source: Dye, ACRS

30 Chengdu, Sichuan Province Administrative, cultural center with 2500 year history City: 2.5 million. Municipality: 11 million Fertile plain - triple cropping system 1950s, 1960s: Industrial center City chosen for investment

31 Urban Growth in Chengdu 300% increase in urban land non-urban stable urban

32 Drivers Socioeconomic of Urban Changes Growth Foreign and domestic investment Policy incentives Economic opportunities and migration Increases in disposable income

33 Implications Conclusions: of Chengdu Urbanization Energy demand and composition Dietary patterns: from grain- to meat-based diet Traditional familial relations and housing arrangements Disparity between urban and rural; coast and interior Increase in disposable incomes Agricultural land loss Water and air pollution Greenhouse gas emissions

34 Challenges for sustainable urban growth Requires Chinese, not Western, model Integrated, hierarchical, multi-user public transportation Increase density and land-use efficiency Intra- and intercity economic disparities Loss of most productive agricultural land Changes in urban lifestyles: diet, energy demand

35 Prospects for sustainable urban growth Post-hoc analyses of regional plans Increased public transportation Increased density and land-use efficiency Leap-frog technology: energy efficiency Multi-unit housing and multi-use zoning

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