Developing Africa: Toward Customer Oriented Urban Transport Policy. Wendell Cox, Demographia CODATU XV Addis Abeba 23 October 2012

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1 Developing Africa: Toward Customer Oriented Urban Transport Policy Wendell Cox, Demographia CODATU XV Addis Abeba 23 October 2012

2 THE SUBJECT --- POLICY, NOT PROJECTS, MODES OR REGULATION --- OBJECTIVES NOT MEANS

3 THE OBJECTIVE --- ERADICATING POVERTY --- REQUIRES MAXIMIZING ACCESS/MOBILITY

4 MORE CRITICAL IN DEVELOPING WORLD --- MASS TRANSIT: PRINCIPAL MOBILITY --- MORE DEVELOPED WEST: AUTO

5 Democratization of Prosperity ASSOCIATION BETWEEN MOBILITY & AFFLUENCE Chicago Time is Money Reduced Minority Unemployment With Cars U. of California PRUD HOMME Mobility Improves Productivity U. Of Paris HARTGEN-FIELDS Mobility Improves Productivity

6 The Subject: Maximizing Urban Access 650 BC TO 2000 Urban access can be measured from the urban area level to between small zones within the urban area. Urban access may be defined as follows: Urban access is the percentage of metropolitan area employment that can be reached (door-todoor) by the urban transport system in a specified period of time (such as 30 minutes).

7 Economics: A History of Poverty CANNOT TAKE AFFLUENCE FOR GRANTED Dhaka 7

8 GDP/Capita: Richest Nation: 2000$ Highest National GDPs: $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $5 000 $0 650 BC TO PRESENT PRINCIPAL MODE From Maddison (OECD) Walking Mass Transit Auto Figure 8

9 Rio +20 Declaration ERADICATING POVERTY: INDISPENSABLE REQUIREMENT Eradicating poverty is the greatest global challenge facing the world today and an indispensable requirement for sustainable development.

10 650BC 400BC 200BC 100AD Population (Millions) World s Largest Cities (Urban Areas) 650 BC TO From Chandler Year: (Irregular Scale) Figure 10

11 Why Cities Grow (Their Purpose) ALAIN BERTUAD, FORMER WORLD BANK PLANNER The raison d être of large cities is the increasing return to scale inherent to large labor markets. The cities economic efficiency requires, therefore, avoiding any spatial fragmentation of labor markets.

12

13

14 As Cities Grow They Become Less Dense ADDIS ABEBA

15

16 Average Population Densities: 2012 URBAN AREAS OVER 2.5 MILLION: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Less Developed World More Developed World India Developing Africa China Japan Western Europe Canada Calculated from data in Demographia World Urban Areas Average Population per Square Kilometer Figure 16

17 Coming to Terms with Global Urban Expansion

18

19 African Cities are Too Large for Walking ALREADY TOO SPATIALLY LARGE. The cities of developing Africa may have long since become too spatially large for walking to suffice as a principal mode of access without hobbling economic growth and ingraining high levels of poverty.

20 Autos in All Western Europe & North America MAJORITY OF MOTORIZED TRAVEL IS AUTO IN ALL CITIES Example PORTLAND Transit +Cycle+Walk Market Share Down 9%

21 CAR & 2-WHEELER Provides access to within walking distance of all points in the urban area

22 STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF MASS TRANSIT For most trips mass transit is not available or feasible

23 YOU CANNOT EXPECT PEOPLE TO MAKE IRRATIONAL CHOICES

24 Capability of Transit: 45 Minute Job Access USA METROPOLITAN AREAS OVER 2,000,000: 2008 Atlanta Baltimore Boston Chicago Cincinnati Cleveland Dallas-Fort Worth Denver Detroit Houston Kansas City Los Angeles Miami Minneapolis-St. Paul New York Orlando Philadelphia Phoenix Pittsburgh Portland Riverside-San Bernardino Sacramento San Antonio San Diego San Francisco Seattle St. Louis Tampa-St. Petersburg Washington Accessible by Transit Not Accessible by Transit Average Transit Job Access: 5.6% (NYC: 9.8%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

25 Paris Suburbs: Cars Provide Quicker Travel FROM MAJOR SUBURBAN RAIL STATIONS: 1 HR TO JOBS Jobs Accessible 84% Auto 16% Not Accessible Transit 59% Not Accessible Jobs Accessible 41% Suburbs 83% of Population

26

27 Reforming the Informal Sector TRANSANTIAGO EXAMPLE

28 Mass Transit Service Densities MILLENNIUM CITIES DATABASE: 1995 Manila Hong Kong Dakar Singapore Zurich Vienna Tokyo Paris Toronto New York Vancouver Denver Calculated from data in Millennium Cities Database (UITP) Average Vehicle Kilometers per Urban Square Kilometer Figure 28

29 World s Most Dense Service MANILA: PRINCIPALLY JEEPNEYS DAKAR High Density Service Profile 29

30 2-Wheelers & Personal Mobility HO CHI MINH CITY

31 Dapice, Gomez-Ibanez, & Thanh ON HO CHI MINH CITY & MOTORCYCLES...the motorcycle offers many of the conveniences of a private automobile, such as on-demand, door-to-door service, and the ability to make intermediate stops and carry packages and extra passengers. Many Vietnamese have more than one job and children to drop off and pick up at school, and thus value the flexibility of a motorcycle.

32 Suzhou

33 Policies for Urban Access BASED UPON PRUD HOMME/LEE & OTHERS Employment (Enterprise) access: The employee access indicator would estimate the number of jobs in an urban area that can be reached by workers from specific zones and overall within a fixed period (such as 30 minutes). Employee (Worker) access: The work force access indicator would estimate the number of potential employees in an urban area that could reach employment locations in specific zones and overall within a fixed period (such as 30 minutes). Cost per reduced delay hour (Texas Governor s Business Council)

34 FOCUSING ON OBJECTIVES NOT MEANS

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