The Future of Sustainable Transport enabling Liveable Cities

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1 The Future of Sustainable Transport enabling Liveable Cities Livable Cities Symposium Izmir, 20 November 2014 Holger Dalkmann Director, EMBARQ World Resources Institute

2 Cities THE URBANIZATION CHALLENGE Over 50% of the global population now live in cities and urban areas, rising to 70% by Billions Global population 70% Urban population % Rural population 0 30%

3 Stock of motorcars 3 billion? 250 million billion

4 Local Issues: Congestion 4%

5 Percentage of GDP COSTS OF TRAFFIC CONGESTION Traffic congestion costs some cities more than 4% of GDP 5% Cost of Traffic Congestion as a Percentage of GDP 4% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 3% 3.4% 2% 1% 2.6% 2.4% 2.1% 1.8% 0% Sources: IBM Institute for Business Value, Smarter cities for smarter growth. Li-Zeng Mao, Hong-Ge Zhu, and Li-Ren Duan (2012) The Social Cost of Traffic Congestion and Countermeasures in Beijing. Sustainable Transportation Systems: pp

6 Global Issues: Air Quality 2.1

7 New York Los Angeles Chicago Buenos Aires Sao Paulo Rio de Janeiro Bogota Mexico City Lima Paris Essen Moscow Istanbul London Kinshasa Cairo Tehran Baghdad Lagos Johannesburg Shanghai Beijing Guangzhou Shenzhen Tianjin Dongguan Chengdu Wuhan Chongqung Hangzhou Hong Kong Tokyo Osaka Nagoya Manila Seoul Taipei Bangkok Ho Chi Minh City Dhaka Delhi Mumbai Calcutta Chennai Bengaluru Hyderabad Ahmedabad Jakarta Karachi Lahore AIR QUALITY IMPACTS Of a selection of the world s biggest cities by population meet WHO air quality standards Particulate matter per m 3 for top 50 cities higher particulate matter means worse air quality WHO air quality standard PM10 <20 per m 3 North America Latin America Europe & Central Asia Middle-east & North Africa Source: World Health Organisation: East Asia & Pacific South Asia

8 Local Issues: Road Safety 1.3

9 Local Issues: Physical Inactivity 3.2 million people are affected for illnesses derived from physical inactivity and obesity

10 Paradigm Shift: Trend vs. Leapfrogging Though it may seem impossible or improbable, there is precedent Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, South Korea

11 Paradigm shift: Cigarette smoking has declined Percentage decrease in the adult population who smokes daily from Germany 11.3% France 13.7% UK 20.4% Norway 40.6% EU % 0% 20% 40% 60% Source: OECD Health Data 2012; Eurostat Statistics Database; WHO Global Infobase.

12 Disruprive business ideas:traditional Hotels vs airbnb IHG 65 years 645K rooms 100 countries Hilton 93 years 610K rooms 88 countries Accor 44 years 530K rooms 92 countries Airbnb 4 years 650K rooms 192 countries

13 US: Fewer Young People Have Drivers Licenses Source: US Federal Highway Administration

14 What would a paradigm shift look like?

15 Paradigm Shift: New York City

16 COMPACT MATTERS: ATLANTA VS. BARCELONA The 2 have similar populations and wealth levels, but very different carbon productivities and costs of infrastructure. ATLANTA S BUILT-UP AREA BARCELONA S BUILT-UP AREA Population: 2.5 million Urban area: 4,280 km 2 Transport carbon emissions: 7.5 tonnes CO 2 per person (public+ private transport) Population: 2.8 million Urban area: 162 km 2 Transport carbon emissions: 0.7 tonnes CO 2 per person (public+ private transport) Source: Laconte, P., Urban and Transport Management - International Trends and Practices, in International Symposium "Sustainable Urban Transport and City. 2005, Tongji University and Nagoya University: Shanghai, carfreeinbigd.com, chron.com/the highwayman, ec.europa.eu for emissions for Copenhagen, World Bank for emissions for Houston

17 New Trends on the Rise Source: EMBARQ;

18 Low Emission Zones Received wide implementation due to EU s health-based air quality standard; Additional 100 EU cities will implement LEZs

19 BRT and busway systems in the world Photo: CTS EMBARQ Mexico In operation (163 cities) In expansion (23 cities) Planned / in construction (82 cities) Source: EMBARQ, 2011

20 Global Growth of Bike-Sharing Source: Peter Midgely and EMBARQ

21 Global Growth of Car Sharing

22 Ridesharing: Uber, Lyft, Sidecar

23 Keys to a Paradigm Shift Political Will Leadership and Community Support Finance Infrastructure and Operations Technical Capacity to Plan, Implement, Improve Enable entrepreneurial environment for disruptive solutions

24 Holger Dalkmann Thank You

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