Automotive Infotainment & Telematics NVIDIA Munich 2014

Transcription

1 Automotive Infotainment & Telematics NVIDIA Munich 2014 October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc 1

2 RICHARD ROBINSON Director Global Automotive Practice Previous: Alpine as HMI lead on Navigation and Infotainment Design October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 2

3 SA SERVICES OVERVIEW October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 3

4 INFOTAINMENT & TELEMATICS DESIGN TRENDS $$$$ 2nd Generation $$$ 3rd Generation $$ 4th Generation 2010 Connectivity ECU OR Telematics ECU Display Head unit Head unit & Display Display Head unit CD Changer Navigation Navigation Connectivity ECU OR Phone ECU Sat Radio Amplifier Telematics ECU 3G 4G Amplifier Distributed Architecture e.g. MOST Headunit Integration Cloud Native and Phone based apps Hybrid solution October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 4

5 EMBEDDED MODEMS REGIONAL SHIPMENT VIEW 120,000 Unit Shipments (000's) 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, North America Europe South Korea Japan China India Russia Brazil Rest Of the World Non Connected October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 5

6 OEM TELEMATICS CELLULAR MODEM CHOICE GLOBAL SHIPMENTS 70,000 60,000 Units (000's) 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, G 3G 4G/LTE Telematics ECU Modem Shipments 2014 vs (15.3 Mil. units 66 Mil. units) 2.5G Wireless Network: 9.4 Mil units in 2014 to Zero (by 2020) 3G Wireless Network: 4.1Mil units in 2014 to 40.5 Mil units in G Wireless Network: 1.6Mil units in 2014 to 25.7 Mil units in 2021 October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 6

7 AFTER THE CAR IS CONNECTED. WHO IS THE MAIN WINNER?? OEM? Driver? OR Winner! Winner October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 7

8 AFTER THE CAR IS CONNECTED. WHO IS THE MAIN WINNER?? Device Maker? Device Owner? OR Winner! Winner October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 8

9 TELEMATICS: THE BMW EFFECT? DON T PUT UP BARRIERS TO ADOPTION! OEM Connectivity Solution Network Speed TSP Carrier Free trial BMW - BMW Assist Embedded GSM 2.5G WirelessCar, Agero AT&T 10 Years Chrysler Uconnect Embedded CDMA 2.5G WirelessCar, Airbiquity Sprint 6 Months? Ford - EV Focus Embedded GSM 2.5G Airbiquity, Acuity AT&T 4 years GM - OnStar Embedded CDMA 2.5G Proprietary, Convergys, Airbiquity Verizon 1 Year? GM - OnStar For My Vehicle Embedded GSM 4G/LTE Proprietary, Convergys AT&T 5Years Hyundai - Blue Link Embedded CDMA 2.5G Agero, Aeris, TCS Sprint 1Years Infiniti Connection Embedded GSM 2.5G Agero, Airbiquity AT&T 1 year trial? Mercedes Benz - mbrace2 Embedded CDMA 3G Hughes Telematics Verizon 6 Months?? Toyota/Lexus - Enform with Safety Connect Embedded CDMA 2.5G Agero Verizon 1 Year? October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 9

10 SO WHAT HAPPENS IF NOTHING CHANGES? October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 10

11 HARDWARE IN MARKET (CUMULATIVE) OEM EMBEDDED TELEMATICS - GLOBAL 180, , , ,000 Units (000's) 100,000 80,000 60,000 Hardware in Market 40,000 20, October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 11

12 ACTIVE SUBSCRIPTIONS (CUMULATIVE) OEM EMBEDDED TELEMATICS - GLOBAL 180, , , ,000 Units (000's) 100,000 80,000 60,000 Hardware in Market Active Subs 40,000 20, October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 12

13 IN-ACTIVE SUBSCRIPTIONS (CUMULATIVE) OEM EMBEDDED TELEMATICS - GLOBAL 180, , , ,000 Units (000's) 100,000 80,000 60,000 Hardware in Market Active Subs Inactive Subs 40,000 20, October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 13

14 INACTIVE SUBS = DEAD $$$ OEM EMBEDDED TELEMATICS (UNITS/REVENUES) Units (000's) 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Over $4 Billion wasted in 2017 alone Over $12 Billion wasted ,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Revenues (USD Million 5, Revenues Units 0 October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 14

15 CONVERGENCE OF INFO/TELEMATICS & SAFETY 1. Connectivity: Embedded and brought in 2. Infotainment: The big screen, in vehicle experience 3. Smartphone Connections: Personal content, apps, authentication We NEED solutions to address: Privacy Security Liability Recalls Security Privacy Personalization October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 15

16 CONTEXTUAL AWARENESS We have increasing reliance on: LIDAR, RADAR and LTE Cameras Contextual awareness with the objective of collision avoidance Integration/convergence of safety and infotainment systems Most of these systems have COMPLEX software! October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 16

17 NEW VEHICLE OWNERSHIP PARADIGM Connected Car = Always fresh = Reduce Risk Content Apps Maps Feature/function add ons, updates Collision avoidance & airbag algorithms: High Priority Safety Systems: High Priority October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 17

18 LEARNING FROM OUR MISTAKES DETROIT, WE HAVE A PROBLEM!! (in the US) Mechanical Recalls shift to Software Related Recalls October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 18

19 MAP: FOR NAVIGATION USAGE. October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 19

20 MAP: AS BROWSER Facebook Twitter Linked In POI s Events Dealer Contact CRM Traffic Social Cloud Loc. Serv. ADAS Red Light Camera Accident hotspots Curve warning Weather Traffic Google Earth Street View Fuel Parking Traffic Navigation October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 20

21 BEHIND EVERYTHING.$/ /Y/EURO Global: $60B/$300B in annual unperformed service $40B/$300B in collision aftercare $340B/$1T in schedule/unscheduled maintenance performed Big, Important, Profitable Business! October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 21

22 CONCLUSIONS Safety, Security, CRM: Are becoming the priority Safety and Infotainment are Converging: But safety is the more important purchasing priority for the customer Managing, maintaining customer content: e.g. apps etc. in/from the cloud (or phone) Browser based in vehicle systems Contextual awareness Software updates October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 22

23 Contact:Richard Robinson October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc 23