CairnsWatch. May Level 1, 95 Sheridan Street Cairns Qld 4870 PO Box 6843 Cairns Qld 4870

Transcription

1 Watch May 2016 Cairns

2 OVERVIEW AT A GLANCE The Cairns economy remains characterised by positive tourism activity indicators feeding through into slowly improved employment, but with unemployment remaining stubbornly high. Property market conditions also remain soft. If this CairnsWatch bulletin has been forwarded to you from someone else and you would prefer to receive it direct each month, add your name and address here it s simple and it s free! Airport Passenger Trend: 11.9% (April 2015 to April 2016) Employment Trend: 0.7% (April 2015 to April 2016) Median House Price Trend: 2.1% (March 2015 to March 2016) Rental Vacancy Trend: to 1.9% (April 2016) The Fine Print: Information in this publication is based on an analysis of data from a number of sources, subjected to technical procedures of seasonal adjustment and trend analysis. Seasonal adjustment is a means of removing the effects of normal seasonal variation from the data, so that comparisons can be made of data against their established seasonal patterns. Trend analysis smooths the seasonally adjusted estimates to provide a clearer picture of the underlying behaviour of the series over time. The trend estimates are derived by applying a 13- term Henderson-weighted moving average to the seasonally adjusted data. It applies the same procedures used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics in producing trends for national aggregates. Rick Carr Research Director Herron Todd White Cairns Phone: Fax: rick.carr@htw.com.au No responsibility is accepted to any third party that may use or rely on the whole or any part of the content of this publication. Neither the whole nor any part of this publication or any reference thereto may be included in any published or photocopied documents, circular or statement, nor transmitted or published in part or full in any way, including electronically, without written approval of the form and context in which it may appear. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. The scheme does not apply within Tasmania HTW Copyright 2016 CairnsWatch May

3 EMPLOYMENT Persons Employed in the Cairns Region Number of Persons Employed (Log Scale) 130,000 Cairns Region Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate (Actual and Trend Basis) 12% Cairns Region All Queensland 120,000 10% 110,000 8% 6% 100,000 Actual Trend 4% 90,000 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Source: Derived from ABS Labour Force Survey data ABS headline figures for the Cairns Region (inclusive of Cairns, the Cassowary Coast, Douglas and the Tablelands) estimate that there were 107,100 persons employed during April 2016, compared to 110,700 persons employed during March In our estimation, and after accounting for normal seasonal effects, the regional employment trend remains on an increasing path and reached 107,100 persons employed in April However this represents only a 0.7% increase compared to April N.B. The ABS Labour Force figures are estimates derived from a sample survey of only about 500 Cairns Region residents, and hence are subject to a potentially large margin of error. Neither the headline nor the trend estimates should be interpreted as precise values. 2% Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Source: Derived from ABS Labour Force Survey data The Cairns Region s headline unemployment rate rose to 9.8% in April 2016, up from 9.5% in March Unemployment trend calculations have become increasingly uncertain following ABS methodology changes. In our estimation, the unemployment trend rate increased to 8.2% in April The region s unemployment rate remains higher than the State average of 6.2%. N.B. To be counted as unemployed in the ABS Labour Force survey you need to not have a job and be actively seeking work. People who do not have a job and are not actively seeking work are not counted as unemployed, they are regarded as not in the labour force. CairnsWatch May

4 EMPLOYMENT Cairns Job Ads Number of Jobs Advertised (Average per Week) Newspaper Ads Trend (Newspaper Ads) Internet Ads Trend (Internet Ads) Herron Todd White does Property Valuations Herron Todd White Cairns has a wealth of experience in providing valuation services across the tourism, commercial, industrial, rural and residential property sectors. From residential units and townhouses to specialist valuations, acquisitions and resumption, Herron Todd White Cairns team of specialist staff provides valuations across all property types. 0 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Source: HTW Analysis of the Cairns Post & Exployment Websites The number of jobs being advertised in The Cairns Post has shown a static to mildly softening trend over past two years, influenced by changing modes of job advertising from print to on-line media. Meanwhile the trend in internet job ads for the Cairns and Far North region has also been softening over recent months. There has been a 4.2% decrease in the internet job ads trend over the period from April 2015 to April CairnsWatch May

5 , Cairns TOURISM Airport Passenger Numbers Monthly Passenger Arrivals + Departures (excl Transits) 400, , ,000 85,000 Domestic Terminal International Terminal Herron Todd White does Tourism Valuations Buying or selling a tourist property? Herron Todd White has valuers specialising in all forms of tourism related property including pubs, roadhouses, hostels and caravan parks, and the entire accommodation spectrum from small motels and serviced apartments through to large scale resorts. 50,000 30,000 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Source: Derived from Cairns Airport data Continued strength in Cairns Airport figures during April 2016 are translating into heightening passenger trend increases at both the international and domestic terminals. Overall passenger numbers at Cairns Airport have shown 11.9% trend growth over the period from April 2015 to April 2016, consisting of 9.0% trend growth at the domestic terminal and 32.8% at the international. Cairns Airport comments that airlines have scheduled 1.33 million seats into Cairns for the period April to June 2016, a 5.4% increase compared to the same period in CairnsWatch May

6 PROPERTY Property Prices Median Sale Price (Log Scale) $450,000 Houses Property Metrics Average Days on Market Average Vendor Discount % Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 $300, % $200,000 Units 120 6% $140,000 Vacant Land 80 4% $100, % $70,000 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 * All sales are classified to date of contract (not date of settlement) ** Recent months are provisional and subject to revision Source: HTW Analysis of RPData 0 Houses Source: HTW Analysis of RPData Units 0% Houses Units The Cairns median house price has softened in recent months, with the median house price trend coming in at $388,500 in March This is 2.1% lower than it was in March The median unit price trend came in at $221,600 in March 2016, to give a 2.0% increase since March Meanwhile the median land price trend remained relatively static at $206,800 in March 2016, but is 7.0% lower than in March 2015 due to increasing proportions of Southern Corridor land sales in the sales mix. N.B. The median property price is the actual sale price of the middle-priced property from the list of properties sold each month. Movements in median prices do not necessarily equate to movements in individual property values. Softer real estate market conditions have seen the average time taken for listed properties to reach a sale increase from 67 days for houses sold in the twelve months to November 2015 to 69 days for houses sold in the twelve months to February However time taken to sell a unit reduced, from an average of 95 days for sales in the twelve months to November 2015 to 91 days for sales in the twelve months to February The average vendor discount the average difference between the asking price first advertised on a property and its ultimate selling price also reduced over the same period for houses and units alike. CairnsWatch May

7 PROPERTY Rental Vacancies Percentage Vacancy 8% Houses Units Total Herron Todd White does Tax Depreciation Schedules 6% Do you have an up-to-date tax depreciation schedule? 4% 'Balanced Market' Range You could be missing out on thousands of dollars each year in allowable depreciation for your investment property. 2% Depreciation is an important part of maximising your investment returns from an income generating property. Contact us on for an obligation-free quote. 0% Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Source: HTW Rentroll Survey Rental vacancy rate trends have tightened over the last six months, initially for units but now also for houses. Rental vacancies overall continue to demonstrate a tight rental supply. The latest trend rental vacancy rates for April 2016 stood at 2.0% for houses and 1.9% for units. The market vacancy trend overall stood at 1.9%. CairnsWatch May

8 PROPERTY Building Approvals Number of New Dwellings Approved in Cairns Urban Area Houses Units Total (Trend) Herron Todd White does Socio-Economic Research Herron Todd White Cairns carries out specialist project consulting assignments in all areas of socio-economic research, including demographic studies, statistical surveys, market research, strategy planning, cost benefit studies, and socio-economic impact assessment Contact us today to discuss your requirements Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Source: Derived from ABS data Building approvals over the last four months have dropped back from the spikes experienced in October/November 2015, resulting in the trend reverting into decline. The building approvals trend stood at 57 per month in March 2016, down on the 70 per month in March 2015, but nevertheless much stronger than the 33 per month recorded in March CairnsWatch May

9 SPECIAL TOPIC: GRAZING PROPERTY Australian Grazing Property Index Index of $ per Hectare 3,000 North Queensland 2,500 2,000 1,500 All Australia Herron Todd White does Rural Valuations Selling the farm? Herron Todd White has valuers specialising in agribusiness from cane farms to cattle properties and banana plantations. 1, Index of $/ha for property sales over 2,000 ha - Base of index 1980 = Source: HTW Research The HTW Australian Grazing Property Index measures the long term property price growth performance of large grazing properties Australia wide. Though the market has dropped back considerably from the 2008 peak, North Queensland grazing property prices have nevertheless increased in real terms at an average of 7.8% per annum since In addition, North Queensland grazing property prices appear to be turning in 2015 and into North Queensland s grazing property price growth since 1980 is well above the national average of 4.7% per annum growth over the same period. CairnsWatch May

10 PROPERTY National Property Clock Dubbo Horsham Newcastle NSW Central Coast Gold Coast Ipswich Melbourne NSW Mid Nth Coast South East NSW Approaching Peak of Market Peak of Market Starting to Decline Coffs Harbour NSW Far Nth Coast South West WA Sydney Toowoomba Herron Todd White does Townsville Market Information Herron Todd White produces a quarterly publication of Townsville Market Information entitled Townsville in Focus. Like CairnsWatch, it is free of charge. Adelaide Adelaide Hills Albury Ballarat Barossa Valley Bathurst Bendigo Cairns Canberra Echuca Griffith Mudgee Orange SA Iron Triangle Shepparton Sunshine Coast Tamworth Wagga Wagga Rising Market Declining Market Perth For further enquiries or to subscribe, contact townsville@htw.com.au or call (07) Start of Recovery Approaching Bottom of Market Brisbane Burnie-Devonport Gippsland Hervey Bay Hobart Launceston Mildura Warrnambool Whitsunday Bottom of Market Alice Springs Darwin Gladstone Rockhampton Bundaberg Emerald Mackay Mount Gambier Townsville Entries coloured dark blue indicate positional changes from last month Source: Residential Property Ratings Compiled by Herron Todd White, April 2016 Herron Todd White s National Property Clock is prepared each month based on the local market perceptions of its Australia-wide network of offices. Even though local property demand has cooled in recent months, we still regard Cairns as being consistent with the Rising Market stage of the cycle. CairnsWatch May