IHS AUTOMOTIVE TECHNOLOGY

Transcription

1 IHS AUTOMOTIVE TECHNOLOGY From ADAS to Autonomous Driving January IHS 2015 IHS 1

2 Assisting The Driver In More Ways Than One Safety AEB ESC AFS SOD LKA Comfort & Convenience LDW TSR 360PA Cam PA ACC TJA Auto Pilot Maps Powertrain Braking Acceleration Efficiency US PA AutoPA Transmission 2015 IHS 2

3 Regulation As A Market Driver NCAP Non-Mandatory Best Current Practices Ongoing Incentive Legislation Mandatory Minimum Standard Set-It-and-Forget-It NCAP regulations can focus on and encourage new technologies NCAP updates are increasingly common and frequent Mandates are rare for now 2015 IHS 3

4 NCAP Getting Serious About ADAS Lane Departure Warning Forward Collision Warning Camera Park Assist Crash Imminent Brake Dynamic Brake Support Front Ped. Brake Rear Ped. Brake Lane Keep Assist Camera Park Assist Blind Spot Detection Advanced Lighting V2X Lane Assist Autonomous Emergency Brake (City / Interurban) Autonomous Emergency Brake (Pedestrian) Lane Departure Warning Forward Collision Warning Lane Departure Warning Collision Mitigation Brake Surround View Park Assist Lane Keep Assist Pedestrian Braking Night Vision Encourage innovation & competition Widen availability Increase consumer awareness & uptake Notation Not Final Final 2015 IHS 4 Only Alert-Only Active Control

5 Industry Obstacles - Safety, Comfort & Efficiency To every question about overcoming obstacles There is no silver bullet. facing the industry Road Safety CAFE Forward crashes Lateral crashes & road exits Pedestrian crashes Driver distraction Reduced visibility Overall fuel economy Improvements in high & low speed cruising Improvements in stop-and-go traffic Alternative propulsion V2I + V2V and a connected road network Aggregate of several individual technologies with relatively small but incrementally helpful improvements resulting in a unique solution for each vehicle IHS 5

6 Building Blocks of Automated Driving Processing & Decision Making Software Decision-Making Driver Interface Driver-Car Handoff Significant interest, research, innovation, expansion Increasingly important for Level 1 4 Fusion Sensor Data Applications Sensing Vehicle Sensors Central Computing Connectivity Ongoing integration, refinement, expansion Crucial component for Level 1 4 Radar Camera Ultrasound Laser GPS Maps MEMS DSRC Cellular Wi-Fi Suspension Transmission Vehicle Dynamics & Control Underlying control systems Braking Steering Acceleration 2015 IHS 6

7 Comprehensive Sensor Coverage Safety & Comfort via sensor fusion & application fusion Safety & Comfort via application fusion & automated driving Safety First Comfort Second Efficiency too! The variety of sensors available today and in the future means the possible sensor fusion strategies are innumerable the choice will vary by vehicle IHS 7

8 ADAS Software In The Car Growing complexity of software Nuanced perception and control Can and should an OEM or tier-1 focus on software? Towards automated driving How many lines of code to mimic human decision making? Incompatibility with or separate requirements for infotainment Greater utility from a data-rich environment Electronic horizon to chart the most efficient course Software + hardware to execute the most efficient course Opportunities Arise Central ADAS ECU to model surrounding environment Central ADAS ECU to coordinate all safety systems More detailed map data Big data from many electronic metrics around the car 2015 IHS 8

9 NHTSA Levels of Vehicle Automation 0 No Automation Warning-only or absence of driver-assist Forward Collision Warning (FCW) Lane Departure Warning (LDW) Blind Spot / Side Object Detect (SOD) *Alert-Only Assistance Systems 1 Function-Specific Automation Singular control assistance Driver disengaged from steering or pedal Automatic Emergency Brake (AEB) Lane Keep Assist (LKA) Electronic Stability Control (ESC) *Generally Lateral or Longitudinal DRIVER CONSTANTLY IN THE LOOP 2 Combined Function Automation Cooperative system assistance Driver disengaged from steering and pedal Traffic Jam Assist (TJA) Highway Auto-Pilot Fully Autonomous Park Assist (AutoPA) *Generally Lateral and Longitudinal 3 Limited Self-Driving Automation Semi-automated cooperative vehicle control systems Vehicle as primary controller of multiple functions DRIVER SELECTIVELY IN THE LOOP 4 Full Self-Driving Automation Fully-automated cooperative vehicle control systems Vehicle as primary controller occupied or unoccupied DRIVER OUT OF THE LOOP 2015 IHS 9

10 Automated Driving EVOLUTION L5 L4 L3 L2 L1 L IHS 10

11 Autonomous Vehicles Driver Assist Advances V2V2I JP V2V2I EU V2V USA V2I USA Visibility Perception Awareness Speed Limit Recognition Do Not Pass Do Not Enter Traffic Sign Recognition USA V2I Signals Cornering Lights Auto High Beam Dynamic Cornering Lights Dynamic Highway Lighting Dynamic Light Masking Integrated ADAS Night Vision Night Vision + Pedestrian Detection Night Vision + Pedestrian + Animal Night Vision + Object Spotlight Lateral Assist Blind Spot Detection Cross Traffic Alert Lane Change Assist Automatic Reverse Braking Lane Change Intervention Lane Keep + Side Object Avoidance Integrated Lane Assist Longitudinal Assist Lane Departure Warning ACC ACC Follow-to-Stop Collision Warning Lane Keep Assist Collision Mitigation City ACC Stop & Go ACC Stop & Go Low-Speed Auto Brake Lane Centering ACC Automatic Go Collision Imminent Braking Cooperative ACC Platoon ACC Collision Avoidance Rear Collision Preparation Traffic Queue Assist Highway Autopilot Evasive Steering Integrated Forward Assist Distance Alert Pedestrian Detection Park Assist Camera PA Front Camera PA Intersection View Surround View Object Detection Object Detection + Auto Brake Ultrasonic PA Autonomous PA Steering Autonomous PA Steering + Brake Fully Autonomous PA Integrated Park Assist Dynamic Assist Anti Lock Brakes Electronic Stability Control Electric Power Steering Evasive Steering Torque Vectoring X-by-Wire Roll Stability Active Suspension Predictive Suspension Integrated Body Control Time 2015 IHS 11

12 12 IHS Customer Care: Americas: IHS CARE ( ); Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 (0) ; Asia and the Pacific Rim: ; 2015 IHS. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and IHS. Content reproduced or redistributed with IHS permission must display IHS legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, IHS shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage, or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. For more information, please contact IHS Customer Care (see phone numbers and addresses listed above). All products, company names, or other marks appearing in this publication are the trademarks and property of IHS or their respective owners.