Global Warming s Six Americas and the Election, 2016

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1 Glbal Warming s Six Americas and the Electin, 2016 Summary Americans hld diverse views n glbal warming, falling int six distinct grups Glbal Warming s Six Americas that range in their beliefs, attitudes, plicy preferences and behavir. Climate change is a tp-tier issue in the 2016 presidential electin nly fr Americans wh are in the mst engaged f the six grups the Alarmed (a grup cnstituting 17% f the U.S. ppulatin and 19% f registered vters). Hwever, presidential candidates wh supprt taking actin t reduce glbal warming are als mre likely t earn the vtes f a large majrity f the Cncerned (28% f the ppulatin and 29% f registered vters) and a substantial minrity f the Cautius (27% f the ppulatin and 25% f registered vters). Cnversely, candidates wh ppse taking actin n glbal warming are less likely t earn the vtes f Americans in three f the six grups. Only the Dismissive (10% f the ppulatin and f registered vters) are mre likely t vte fr a candidate wh ppses actin n glbal warming. Glbal Warming s Six Americas in March, 2016 The mst engaged grup are the Alarmed, wh are very wrried abut the issue and strngly supprt gvernment and individual actin t address it. At the ppsite end f the spectrum are the Dismissive, wh d nt believe glbal warming is real and are likely t believe in varius cnspiracy theries abut the issue (e.g., it s a scientific hax, etc.). In March f 2016, 45 percent f Americans belnged t the tw mst engaged segments, the Alarmed and Cncerned. One in three (34%) belnged t the tw middle segments, the Cautius and Disengaged; these grups have thught little abut the issue and see it as having little persnal relevance. The remaining 21 percent belnged t the tw grups that are skeptical and tend t ppse climate actin, the Dubtful and Dismissive. 1

2 The prprtin f Americans in the Alarmed segment increased by five percentage pints ver the past year, and is nw cmparable t prprtin fund in the fall f 2008, when the segments were first identified and glbal warming cncern was at a high pint natinally. 2

Vting Issue Pririties Amng the Six Americas As Americans decide which candidate t supprt in the upcming presidential electin, glbal warming, envirnmental prtectin and clean energy prductin are

3 Vting Issue Pririties Amng the Six Americas As Americans decide which candidate t supprt in the upcming presidential electin, glbal warming, envirnmental prtectin and clean energy prductin are central t the decisins f sme segments and largely irrelevant t thers. Mre than 80 percent f the Alarmed say these issues will be very r extremely imprtant in their vting decisins. Amng the Cncerned, half (53%) cnsider envirnmental prtectin t be very r extremely imprtant, and mre than 40 percent cnsider clean energy and glbal warming the same. Amng the remaining segments, hwever, glbal warming is the least imprtant issue f the 23 assessed, and nly a third r fewer say envirnmental prtectin and develping clean energy will be very r extremely imprtant in their vte. 3

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5 Presidential Vting Preferences Vte preferences are strngly linked t Six Americas segment; tw ut f three Alarmed (64%) say they plan t vte fr Hillary Clintn, and three ut f five Dismissive (61%) prefer Dnald Trump. Clse t half f the Cncerned prefer Clintn, and half f the Dubtful prefer Trump. The Cautius and Disengaged are mre divided in their vte preferences, and a plurality f bth segments say they are nt registered vters. 5

Mre than three-quarters f the Alarmed and clse t tw-thirds f the Cncerned say they wuld be mre likely t vte fr a candidate wh strngly supprts taking actin t reduce glbal warming.

6 Mre than three-quarters f the Alarmed and clse t tw-thirds f the Cncerned say they wuld be mre likely t vte fr a candidate wh strngly supprts taking actin t reduce glbal warming. Majrities f the Cautius, Disengaged and Dubtful say it wuld make n difference t their vte r they re nt sure whether it wuld make a difference. Only amng the Dismissive d a majrity (54%) say that a candidate s supprt fr actin t reduce glbal warming wuld make them less likely t vte fr the candidate. Large majrities f the Alarmed and Cncerned say they wuld be less likely t vte fr a candidate wh ppses actin t reduce glbal warming. Majrities f the Cautius, Disengaged and Dubtful say it wuld make n difference t their vte r they re nt sure whether it wuld make a difference. Even amng the Dismissive the segment 6

mst cnvinced that glbal warming is nt real half (51%) indicate that ppsitin t actin wuld make n difference t their vte, while slightly less than half 45 percent say it wuld increase the likelihd that

7 mst cnvinced that glbal warming is nt real half (51%) indicate that ppsitin t actin wuld make n difference t their vte, while slightly less than half 45 percent say it wuld increase the likelihd that they wuld vte fr the candidate. Willingness t Jin a Climate Actin Campaign Clse t a third f the Alarmed (32%) say they are either currently participating in a campaign t cnvince elected fficials t take actin t reduce glbal warming (6%) r that they definitely wuld d s (26%). Anther third (35%) say they prbably wuld jin. Very few members f the remaining segments say they are currently participating in a campaign (3% r less) r that they wuld definitely jin (6% r less). A quarter f 7

8 the Cncerned (26%), hwever, say they prbably wuld jin, as d 13 percent f the Cautius. Survey Methd Data are based n a natinally representative survey f 1,204 American adults, aged 18 and lder. The survey was cnducted March 18 31, All questinnaires were selfadministered by respndents in a web-based envirnment. The survey tk, n average, abut 26 minutes t cmplete. The sample was drawn frm GfK s KnwledgePanel, an nline panel f members drawn using prbability sampling methds. Prspective members are recruited using a cmbinatin f randm digit dial and address-based sampling techniques that cver virtually all (nn-institutinal) resident phne numbers and addresses in the United 8

9 States. Thse cntacted wh wuld chse t jin the panel but d nt have access t the Internet are laned cmputers and given Internet access s they may participate. The sample therefre includes a representative crss-sectin f American adults irrespective f whether they have Internet access, use nly a cell phne, etc. Key demgraphic variables were weighted, pst survey, t match US Census Bureau nrms. The survey instrument was designed by Anthny Leiserwitz, Geff Feinberg, and Seth Rsenthal f Yale University, and Edward Maibach and Cnnie Rser-Renuf f Gerge Masn University. Sample details and margins f errr All samples are subject t sme degree f sampling errr that is, statistical results btained frm a sample can be expected t differ smewhat frm results that wuld be btained if every member f the target ppulatin were interviewed. Average margins f errr each wave, at the 95% cnfidence level, are plus r minus 3 percentage pints except where nted. March 2016: Field March (n=1,204). Alarmed (n=212). Margin f errr plus r minus 7 percentage pints. Cncerned (n=348). Margin f errr plus r minus 5 percentage pints. Cautius (n=320). Margin f errr plus r minus 6 percentage pints. Disengaged (n=64). Margin f errr plus r minus 12 percentage pints. Dubtful (n=137). Margin f errr plus r minus 8 percentage pints. Dismissive (n=122). Margin f errr plus r minus 9 percentage pints. Octber 2015: Fielded September 30 Octber 19 (n=1,330). March 2015: Fielded February 27 March 10 (n=1,263). Octber 2014: Fielded Octber (n=1,275). April 2014: Fielded April (n=1,013). Nvember 2013: Fielded Nvember 23 December 9 (n=830). April 2013: Fielded April (n=1,045). September 2012: Fielded August 31 September 12 (n=1,061). March 2012: Fielded March 12 March 30 (n=1,008). Nvember 2011: Fielded Octber 20 Nvember 16 (n=1,000). May 2011: Fielded April 23 May 12 (n=1,010). June 2010: Fielded May 14 June 1 (n=1,024). 9

10 January 2010: Fielded December 24, 2009 January 3, 2010 (n=1,001). Nvember 2008: Fielded Octber 7 Nvember 12 (n=2,164). Data were cllected ver tw perids: frm Octber 7 Octber 20 and frm Octber 24 Nvember 12. Margin f errr plus r minus 2 percentage pints. Runding errr Fr tabulatin purpses, percentage pints are runded ff t the nearest whle number. As a result, percentages in a given chart may ttal slightly higher r lwer than 100%. Summed respnse categries (e.g., much mre likely + smewhat mre likely ) are als runded. 10

Data Analytics for Campaigns Assignment 1: Jan 6 th, 2015 Due: Jan 13 th, 2015

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