To: From: Re: December 5, 2011

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1 December 5, 2011 T: Frm: Re: Interested Parties Ben Tulchin and Crey O Neil, Tulchin Research Califrnia Decline-t-State (DTS) Vters Shw Strng Prgressive, Pr-Envirnment Stance Tulchin Research recently cnducted a grund-breaking in-depth survey amng 600 decline-t-state (DTS) vters in Califrnia n behalf f the Califrnia League f Cnservatin Vters Educatin Fund. With DTS vters increasing frm 15 t 20 percent f the electrate just since 2006, the purpse f the public pinin survey was t better understand this key swing and grwing segment f vters and their attitudes tward varius issues. The main fcus f the survey centered n envirnmental cncerns and als included questins addressing ther relevant tpics. Executive Summary Over the past several electin cycles, statewide plling has shwn decline-t-state vters rutinely favring Demcratic candidates ver Republicans by duble-digits. Prgressive candidates cnsistently strng perfrmances with these imprtant swing vters have been a majr reasn why Califrnia has becme such a blue (Demcratic) and green (pr-envirnment) state. Vters rejectin f Prpsitin 23 in the 2010 mid-term electins serves as a prime example f vters willingness t supprt cnservatin plicies, with DTS vters playing a key rle in the successful utcme f the pr-envirnment psitin in that campaign. As we head int a presidential electin year filled with intrigue in Califrnia in the frm f new legislative and Cngressinal districts due t redistricting and a new tp tw primary system, the questin t ask mving frward is will DTS vters cntinue t lean twards mre prgressive candidates with strng pr-envirnment values r can mre cnservative candidates make a cmpetitive run at them? T answer this questin, CLCV Educatin Fund asked Tulchin Research t cnduct a first-f-its-kind statewide survey amng DTS vters t gain a better understanding f these swing vters and t quantify their attitudes n a range f tuchstne issues, particularly n cnservatin issues. The bttm line is that the survey results are very encuraging fr prgressive, pr-envirnment candidates running fr ffice and prvide little slace fr cnservative candidates lking t break a lsing streak. Overall, the statewide survey fund DTS vters are relatively prgressive n a range f issues and are especially prgressive and cnsistently s when it cmes t cnservatin issues. Ntably: A slid 60+% rutinely take a pr-cnservatin side when given a chice; Tw-thirds (65 percent) f DTS vters cnsider themselves cnservatinists ; 182 Secnd Street, Suite 400 San Francisc, CA P

2 Tulchin Research Survey Results 2 They believe envirnmental regulatins are a benefit t sciety and can help imprve the ecnmy and create jbs; By a 2-t-1 margin, DTS vters believe climate change is a serius prblem and want t see it addressed. Furthermre, DTS vters: Supprt Barack Obama ver Mitt Rmney fr president; Are pr-chice; Favr marriage equality; Are aware f and agree with the Occupy Wall Street mvement. Beynd their pinins n plitical issues, the survey als fund that DTS vters are generally mre technlgically cnnected than all vters statewide; They have a greater tendency t use scial media sites than vters verall; They shw a large increase in Smartphne use cmpared t a year ag. We highlight the key findings belw. DTS Vters Are Strngly Pr-Cnservatin The survey fund that DTS vters are slidly pr-envirnment and supprt cnservatin plicies even when faced with a chice. In fact, tw-thirds (65 percent) cnsider themselves t be cnservatinists (32 percent strngly, 33 percent smewhat). Cnversely, just ver a quarter (26 percent) f DTS vters d nt cnsider themselves as cnservatinists and 9 percent are unsure. Graphic 1: DTS Vters as Cnservatinists D yu cnsider yurself a cnservatinist? Ttal Yes 65% Yes, strngly 32% Yes, smewhat 33% N 26% Dn t knw 9% Yes - N +39 DTS vters believe climate change is a serius prblem and want actin taken t deal with this cncern. Ntably, DTS vters agree climate change is ccurring and is a majr prblem that needs t be addressed by a 2-t-1 margin (63 percent), while nearly a third f vters (31 percent) believe climate change is nt an issue wrth addressing.

3 Tulchin Research Survey Results 3 Graphic 2: DTS Vters Attitudes n Climate Change With a struggling ecnmy, there has been a cncerted effrt t rll back envirnmental regulatins by arguing that this will benefit the ecnmy. In this cntext, we asked DTS vters hw they feel abut envirnmental regulatins and their impact n the ecnmy and sciety and whether r nt they shuld be cut back. When DTS vters were asked abut their pinins n envirnmental regulatins made by ur lawmakers, an verwhelming 69 percent believe envirnmental regulatins prvide an imprtant benefit t ur sciety and help t prtect ur air, land and water. Just 1-in 5 vters (21 percent) believe envirnmental regulatins d mre harm than gd. Graphic 3: DTS Vters Attitudes n Envirnmental Regulatins

4 Tulchin Research Survey Results 4 Strng and Cnsistent Prgressive Values T gain a deeper and brader understanding f DTS vters and their plitical views, we asked a range f questins cvering sme f the mst timely and plemical scial and plitical issues. The results shw a cnsistently prgressive bent t DTS vters that explain their prgressive vting behavir in recent years and indicate they will mst likely favr a prgressive candidate ver a cnservative candidate thrugh the next electin cycle and likely beynd that as well. Presidential Vte: We asked DTS vters abut their pinins n the presidential race which helps t prvide cntext fr their views n several prgressive issues. President Obama currently has a cmmanding lead ver frmer Massachusetts Gvernr Mitt Rmney. Specifically, nearly half f DTS vters (49 percent) supprt the President in a tw-way match-up ver the Republican wh is supprted by just 30 percent f vters in the state. Currently ne ut f five vters (21 percent) remain undecided. Graphic 4: The 2012 Presidential Vte Pr-Chice r Pr-Life? Amng issue-based questins, a wman s reprductive right prves t be ne f the issues garnering the mst prgressive supprt. Nearly tw-thirds f DTS vters (63 percent) believe abrtin shuld be legal in all cases (26 percent) r legal in mst cases (37 percent). Just ver a quarter (27 percent) believes abrtin shuld be illegal in all (10 percent) r mst cases (17 percent), a gap f 36 pints favring a wman s right t chse ver the prlife psitin.

5 Tulchin Research Survey Results 5 Graphic 5: Opinins n Abrtin When it cmes t yur view n abrtin, d yu believe abrtin shuld be (ROTATE) legal in all cases, legal in mst cases, illegal in mst cases, r illegal in all cases? Ttal Pr-Chice 63% Legal in all cases 26% Legal in mst cases 37% Ttal Pr-Life 27% Illegal in mst cases 17% Illegal in all cases 10% Dn't knw 9% Pr-Chice Pr-Life +36 Gay Marriage: DTS vters als shw strng supprt fr the LGBT cmmunity and marriage equality. By a 2-t-1 margin, three ut f five (60 percent) DTS vters supprt allwing gay and lesbian cuples t marry legally, with a resunding 44 percent wh strngly supprt legal avenues t marriage. In cntrast, less than a third (30 percent ttal ppse) ppse legalizing marriage fr gay and lesbian cuples and less than ne ut f ten is undecided. Graphic 6: Opinins n Gay Marriage D yu supprt r ppse allwing gay and lesbian cuples t marry legally? Ttal Supprt Gay Marriage 60% Strngly supprt 44% Smewhat supprt 16% Ttal Oppse Gay Marriage 30% Smewhat ppse 6% Strngly ppse 24% Dn't knw 9% Supprt - Oppse +30 Occupy Wall Street: With the Occupy Wall Street mvement taking up much f the media bandwidth this fall, we asked vters hw much they have heard abut the mvement and whether r nt they agree with it. Mre than fur ut f five DTS vters (85 percent) say they have heard abut the mvement with clse t a majrity (48 percent) wh say they have heard a lt and a quarter (25 percent) wh say they have heard sme while just 15 percent say they have nt heard anything abut the mvement.

6 Tulchin Research Survey Results 6 Graphic 7: Awareness f Occupy Wall Street Have yu heard, read, r seen anything recently abut the Occupy Wall Street prtests and similar prtests in ther cities? Ttal Yes 85% Yes, a lt 48% Yes, sme 25% Yes, nly a little 11% N 15% Dn't knw 1% Yes - N +70 In general, ver a majrity f DTS vters (53 percent) agree with the Occupy Wall Street prtests while just under a third (32 percent) disagrees and 15 percent remain undecided abut the mvement. We split the sample and asked the same questin with a brief descriptin f what the prtests are abut, the number f DTS vters wh agree with the mvement jumps t 60 percent while just ver a quarter (26 percent) disagree with the mvement. The table belw shws the language difference between the tw questins and their respective results. Graphic 8: DTS Vters Agree with Occupy Wall Street Frm what yu have heard, wuld yu say that yu generally agree r disagree with the Occupy Wall Street prtests?* Frm what yu have heard, wuld yu say that yu generally agree r disagree with the Occupy Wall Street prtesters wh are prtesting against crpratins and the wealthy wh cntinue t get richer while nt paying their fair share in taxes?* Agree 53% 60% Disagree 32% 26% Dn't knw 15% 13% *Each questin was asked t half the sample Characteristics f Decline-t-State Vters In cmparing DTS vters t vters f all party designatins in the state, an interesting and ntewrthy discvery we fund in the survey is that DTS vters are much mre cnnected r wired technlgically than the average vter verall. A strng majrity f DTS vters (59 percent) use Facebk, which is 19 pints higher than the 40 percent f vters verall wh said they used Facebk in a statewide survey Tulchin Research cnducted last year. These cmparative results help t highlight the cnnected nature f DTS vters and hw they receive infrmatin and cmmunicate with thers.

7 Tulchin Research Survey Results 7 Graphic 9: Facebk Use Amng DTS Vters Similarly, Smartphne use has increased dramatically with DTS vters in the state. Since we last asked the questin t vters statewide, Smartphne use has seen an increase f 22 percentage pints with ver a majrity (55 percent) wh acknwledge using f sme kind f Smartphne device cmpared t just a third f DTS vters (33 percent) wh said they were using them in January f Graphic 10: Smartphne Use Amng DTS Vters These findings help t illustrate the pprtunities CLCV and ther envirnmental rganizatins have in tapping in t DTS vters frm a technlgical angle and the imprtance f adapting t the expanded use f scial media and mbile technlgies that cntinue t evlve.

8 Tulchin Research Survey Results 8 Survey Methdlgy: Frm Octber 27 Nvember 2, 2011, Tulchin Research cnducted a telephne survey amng 600 likely Decline-t-State vters in Califrnia using live, prfessinal interviewers. The margin f errr fr this survey is +/- 4.0 percentage pints.