SIX WAYS TO SOLVE A SIMPLE PROBLEM: FITTING A STRAIGHT LINE TO MEASUREMENT DATA

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "SIX WAYS TO SOLVE A SIMPLE PROBLEM: FITTING A STRAIGHT LINE TO MEASUREMENT DATA"

Transcription

1 SIX WAYS TO SOLVE A SIMPLE PROBLEM: FITTING A STRAIGHT LINE TO MEASUREMENT DATA E. LAGENDIJK Department of Appled Physcs, Delft Unversty of Technology Lorentzweg 1, 68 CJ, The Netherlands E-mal: We present sx ways to ft a straght lne to measurement data. The computatonal methods dffer n the way weghts are attrbuted to the data and measurement uncertantes are taken nto account. A numercal example shows the results of the dfferent methods. We conclude that even the best method s ncomplete and moreover s not mplemented n well known commercal programs. KEYWORDS: regresson, straght lne model, least squares, weghts, uncertantes Introducton A common case n the teachng laboratory s that students measure a quantty Y dependent on a quantty X. Examples are verfcatons of Ohm s and Hooke s laws. The result s a lst of measurement data (x,y ), =1...n. In measurement theory we assume that these data are realsatons of ndependent stochastc varables (X, Y ), whch are charactersed by probablty dstrbutons lke the normal dstrbuton. If the measurement s performed correctly, not only (x,y ) have been obtaned, but also the correspondng standard uncertantes (u(x ),u(y )). These standard uncertantes are estmates of the standard devatons σ, σ ) of the ( X Y measurement varables. Often we ask our students to ft a model to the measurement data. The model s a functon f whch descrbes the expected dependency: y = f ( x; α1... α m ) The α j are parameters, whch we want to estmate from the data, wth ther uncertantes u(α j ). Before the students can make a ft, four choces have to be made: the model, the fttng method, how weghts are attrbuted to the data, how the measurement uncertantes are taken nto account. The last two choces may be related, because often weghts are derved from uncertantes. Note: uncertantes may be dfferent for dfferent values of, both measurement varables have uncertantes. We should make clear to our students from the start that these choces are relevant and we should oblge them to make ratonal choces and to publsh these, together wth the results. For the smple case of a straght lne model, we wll now show how these choces may nfluence the outcomes of the fttng procedure. (1)

2 The straght lne model Often we lnearze the data by transformng them, for example logarthmcally. We do ths because a straght lne model can be nspected graphcally by eye and algorthms for the straght lne case are generally avalable, even on hand calculators. The general straght lne model predcts that the relaton between the dependent varable (y) and the ndependent varable (x) s: y = α + β x () Our task s to get estmates a and b of the parameters α and β and uncertantes u(a) and u(b) from the measurement data. In many cases not the general straght lne, but the straght lne through the orgn s approprate: y = β x (3) An example s the determnaton of the gravtatonal feld strength g from pendulum measurements. Ths example demonstrates the need for transformed data: to get a straght lne model we need perod squared aganst pendulum length or perod aganst the square root of pendulum length. One way to choose between these two models Eq.() or Eq.(3) s to nspect the estmate a of α after a general straght lne ft has been made. If a does not dffer sgnfcantly from zero, the drect proportonalty model may be the rght choce. Therefore the uncertanty u(a) should be known. Smple hand calculators do not provde ths, so we need more advanced calculators, lke a PC, and an approprate applcaton lke Orgn [1] or SgmaPlot [] or programs wth approprate algorthms, lke those descrbed by Press et al [3]. Another way to choose between models s to use a measure of goodness of ft. Expermentalsts generally use the ch-by-eye method, as t s called by Press et al. [4]: they judge f the ft looks good. For example, by usng a ruler we judge f a straght lne can be drawn through all uncertanty regons defned by the uncertanty (or error) bars. Statstcans want an objectve measure, for example the χ test. Here χ s the sum of (weghted) squares of the dfferences between measured and calculated y-values, usng the estmates. See for example Press et al. [4]. The method of least squares The method of least squares s generally used to get estmates of the model parameters. The least squares crteron states that χ should be mnmzed. In the straght lne case: χ = N = 1 w ( y a bx ) w s the weght attrbuted tot the th datapont. Least squares estmators often have good propertes n terms of bas and mean square error and have some computatonal advantages. However the method of least squares s only one of a number of estmaton methods. Some programs offer so-called robust methods. See for example Press et al. [3]. (4)

3 Attrbutng weghts and usng uncertantes The estmates wll depend on the way the weghts w are attrbuted to the data and the way the measurement uncertantes (u(x ),u(y )) are used. We consder three possbltes: Uncertantes n x and y are neglected. They may even be absent. Nonetheless we can calculate values of the uncertantes u(a) and u(b) of the parameter estmates! Ths s done by usng the devatons between measured and ftted y-values to estmate σ Y. There are some hdden assumptons n ths proces, lke the assumpton that the model s correct. See for example Press et al. [4]. Although t s aganst the rules of measurement, neglectng uncertantes s qute common practce, gven the fact that applcatons lke Orgn [1] and SgmaPlot [] use t as the default method. Clearly, ths wll not stmulate our students to take the trouble of payng attenton to measurement uncertantes! Uncertantes n y are accounted for, but those n x are not. Ths s a standard case n the lterature. See for example Press et al. [4]. There are two solutons: one wth uncertanty propagaton and one wthout. In the latter case the uncertantes are only used n weghng the data, almost always by puttng w =1/u(y ). Uncertantes n x and y are both accounted for. Ths s the real problem, whch seems hard to solve. See for example the dscusson n Press and Teucholsky [4]. Exstng solutons are not mplemented n well-known applcatons. As stressed by Press et al. [3], the estmators a and b are not statstcally ndependent. In general, ther covarance u(a,b) dffers from zero. Therefore, f more than one parameter estmate s needed n a calculaton, we have to account for the covarance n uncertanty propagaton. See Taylor [5] for a smple example. Some commercal programs do not provde covarances or make t rather dffcult to obtan them. An example: stressng a sprng Table 1 shows faked measurement data on the stress of a sprng. Table 1. Faked data of the stress r of a sprng by an appled force F r (cm) u(r) (cm) F u(f) We have added tenson to the sprng before t s stressed, to press the cols together n the state of rest. Therefore, the stress-force curve does not pass through the orgn. Fgure 1 shows a graph of the data.

4 F r (cm) Fgure 1. Graph of the data of table 1. Lnes are drawn by hand, ftted to the error regons Table shows the results of the calculatons. All calculatons have been done n Maple. The formulas and the programs used can be obtaned from the author. Table. Results of fttng a straght lne model weght functons and dfferent ways to calculate uncertantes y = α x + β to the data of table 1, usng dfferent weght uncert. prop. a u(a) b (N/cm) u(b) (N/cm) u(a,b) (N /cm) 1 no /u(y) no /u(y) yes, y 1 yes, n.a. x,y 1/(u(y) +b u(x) ) yes n.a. x,y by eye (lnes n fg.1) by eye n.a. We have obtaned the sxth soluton by takng our ruler, drawng two lnes whch just pass through the uncertanty regons, one wth maxmum and one wth mnmum slope, and calculatng the slope b as the mean slope and the ntersecton a as the mean of ntersectons of the y-axs. See fgure 1. We have determned the uncertantes as half the dfferences of ntersectons and slopes. Statstcans wll quckly pont out that ths method depends on a personal nterpretaton of extremes, does not gve the covarance u(a,b) or a measure of goodness of ft and does not work on other than straght lne models. Nonetheless, manly because t accounts for uncertantes n x, we recommend t as second best. An addtonal advantage may be that t convnces our students that the uncertanty bars, whch we oblge them to draw, do any good.

5 The best method s the ffth one n table, because t does not contan an element of personal taste as the paper and pencl method does and correctly takes the uncertantes n account. Drawbacks of ths method are that s ncomplete, because u(a,b) s lackng, and that t s avalable for the general straght lne model only. Worse, to our knowledge t s not mplemented n any commercal program. Takng a closer look at table, we see that a and b are mostly effected by weghng. Ths s because delberately we have chosen the ffth data pont somewhat outlyng, although ts large uncertanty does not make t a real outler from the straght lne pont of vew. We also see that no value of a or b s sgnfcantly dfferent from another value, whch may ndcate that the straght lne model s a good one n ths case. Note that the uncertantes u(a) and u(b) are larger f uncertantes n x are taken nto account, as t should be. The lower value of u(a) and u(b) f no uncertanty propagaton s used may be an ndcaton that the uncertantes are overestmated. The dfference n the values of u(a,b) rases the queston what happens f we use both a and b n a calculaton. We have calculated the quotent q=a/b usng values from the frst and the second row of table wth proper error propagaton: q q q q u( q) = u( a) + u( b) + u( a, b) (5) a b a b The results are q=0.49 cm wth u(q)=0. cm (11% contrbuted by the covarance term) and q=0.69 cm wth u(q)=0.15 cm (16% contrbuted by the covarance term). These results are not sgnfcantly dfferent. Concluson The algorthm descrbed by Press and Teucholsky [5] solves our straght lne ft problem correctly. However t does not estmate the covarance and therefore cannot be used for uncertanty calculaton f the parameters of the lne both are needed n a calculaton. If t s not avalable a smple paper and pencl method may be as good f uncertantes n both x and y are mportant. The message of ths paper s that we should make aware our students of the ptfalls of parameter estmaton, especally those concernng weghng and uncertanty analyss, before we let them solve fttng problems usng a computer. As always, they should learn to thnk frst before pushng the buttons. Lterature 1. Orgn s a trademark of Mcrocal Software. We have used verson SgmaPlot s a regstered trademark by SPSS Inc. We have used verson W.H. Press, B.P. Flannery, S.A. Teucholsky and W.T. Vetterlng, Numercal Recpes n Pascal, Cambrdge Unversty Press, New York (1989) 4. W.H. Press and S.A. Teucholsky, Fttng Straght Lne Data wth Errors n Both Coordnates, Comp. n Phys., 6, pp (199) 5. J.R. Taylor, Smple examples of correlaton n error propagaton, Am. J. Phys., 53, pp (1985)

THE METHOD OF LEAST SQUARES THE METHOD OF LEAST SQUARES

THE METHOD OF LEAST SQUARES THE METHOD OF LEAST SQUARES The goal: to measure (determne) an unknown quantty x (the value of a RV X) Realsaton: n results: y 1, y 2,..., y j,..., y n, (the measured values of Y 1, Y 2,..., Y j,..., Y n ) every result s encumbered

More information

Study on CET4 Marks in China s Graded English Teaching

Study on CET4 Marks in China s Graded English Teaching Study on CET4 Marks n Chna s Graded Englsh Teachng CHE We College of Foregn Studes, Shandong Insttute of Busness and Technology, P.R.Chna, 264005 Abstract: Ths paper deploys Logt model, and decomposes

More information

Causal, Explanatory Forecasting. Analysis. Regression Analysis. Simple Linear Regression. Which is Independent? Forecasting

Causal, Explanatory Forecasting. Analysis. Regression Analysis. Simple Linear Regression. Which is Independent? Forecasting Causal, Explanatory Forecastng Assumes cause-and-effect relatonshp between system nputs and ts output Forecastng wth Regresson Analyss Rchard S. Barr Inputs System Cause + Effect Relatonshp The job of

More information

GRAVITY DATA VALIDATION AND OUTLIER DETECTION USING L 1 -NORM

GRAVITY DATA VALIDATION AND OUTLIER DETECTION USING L 1 -NORM GRAVITY DATA VALIDATION AND OUTLIER DETECTION USING L 1 -NORM BARRIOT Jean-Perre, SARRAILH Mchel BGI/CNES 18.av.E.Beln 31401 TOULOUSE Cedex 4 (France) Emal: jean-perre.barrot@cnes.fr 1/Introducton The

More information

ErrorPropagation.nb 1. Error Propagation

ErrorPropagation.nb 1. Error Propagation ErrorPropagaton.nb Error Propagaton Suppose that we make observatons of a quantty x that s subject to random fluctuatons or measurement errors. Our best estmate of the true value for ths quantty s then

More information

The Analysis of Covariance. ERSH 8310 Keppel and Wickens Chapter 15

The Analysis of Covariance. ERSH 8310 Keppel and Wickens Chapter 15 The Analyss of Covarance ERSH 830 Keppel and Wckens Chapter 5 Today s Class Intal Consderatons Covarance and Lnear Regresson The Lnear Regresson Equaton TheAnalyss of Covarance Assumptons Underlyng the

More information

The Analysis of Outliers in Statistical Data

The Analysis of Outliers in Statistical Data THALES Project No. xxxx The Analyss of Outlers n Statstcal Data Research Team Chrysses Caron, Assocate Professor (P.I.) Vaslk Karot, Doctoral canddate Polychrons Economou, Chrstna Perrakou, Postgraduate

More information

Time Series Analysis in Studies of AGN Variability. Bradley M. Peterson The Ohio State University

Time Series Analysis in Studies of AGN Variability. Bradley M. Peterson The Ohio State University Tme Seres Analyss n Studes of AGN Varablty Bradley M. Peterson The Oho State Unversty 1 Lnear Correlaton Degree to whch two parameters are lnearly correlated can be expressed n terms of the lnear correlaton

More information

x f(x) 1 0.25 1 0.75 x 1 0 1 1 0.04 0.01 0.20 1 0.12 0.03 0.60

x f(x) 1 0.25 1 0.75 x 1 0 1 1 0.04 0.01 0.20 1 0.12 0.03 0.60 BIVARIATE DISTRIBUTIONS Let be a varable that assumes the values { 1,,..., n }. Then, a functon that epresses the relatve frequenc of these values s called a unvarate frequenc functon. It must be true

More information

Damage detection in composite laminates using coin-tap method

Damage detection in composite laminates using coin-tap method Damage detecton n composte lamnates usng con-tap method S.J. Km Korea Aerospace Research Insttute, 45 Eoeun-Dong, Youseong-Gu, 35-333 Daejeon, Republc of Korea yaeln@kar.re.kr 45 The con-tap test has the

More information

PSYCHOLOGICAL RESEARCH (PYC 304-C) Lecture 12

PSYCHOLOGICAL RESEARCH (PYC 304-C) Lecture 12 14 The Ch-squared dstrbuton PSYCHOLOGICAL RESEARCH (PYC 304-C) Lecture 1 If a normal varable X, havng mean µ and varance σ, s standardsed, the new varable Z has a mean 0 and varance 1. When ths standardsed

More information

CHAPTER 5 RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN QUANTITATIVE VARIABLES

CHAPTER 5 RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN QUANTITATIVE VARIABLES CHAPTER 5 RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN QUANTITATIVE VARIABLES In ths chapter, we wll learn how to descrbe the relatonshp between two quanttatve varables. Remember (from Chapter 2) that the terms quanttatve varable

More information

What is Candidate Sampling

What is Candidate Sampling What s Canddate Samplng Say we have a multclass or mult label problem where each tranng example ( x, T ) conssts of a context x a small (mult)set of target classes T out of a large unverse L of possble

More information

1. Measuring association using correlation and regression

1. Measuring association using correlation and regression How to measure assocaton I: Correlaton. 1. Measurng assocaton usng correlaton and regresson We often would lke to know how one varable, such as a mother's weght, s related to another varable, such as a

More information

The Magnetic Field. Concepts and Principles. Moving Charges. Permanent Magnets

The Magnetic Field. Concepts and Principles. Moving Charges. Permanent Magnets . The Magnetc Feld Concepts and Prncples Movng Charges All charged partcles create electrc felds, and these felds can be detected by other charged partcles resultng n electrc force. However, a completely

More information

The OC Curve of Attribute Acceptance Plans

The OC Curve of Attribute Acceptance Plans The OC Curve of Attrbute Acceptance Plans The Operatng Characterstc (OC) curve descrbes the probablty of acceptng a lot as a functon of the lot s qualty. Fgure 1 shows a typcal OC Curve. 10 8 6 4 1 3 4

More information

CHAPTER 14 MORE ABOUT REGRESSION

CHAPTER 14 MORE ABOUT REGRESSION CHAPTER 14 MORE ABOUT REGRESSION We learned n Chapter 5 that often a straght lne descrbes the pattern of a relatonshp between two quanttatve varables. For nstance, n Example 5.1 we explored the relatonshp

More information

The Development of Web Log Mining Based on Improve-K-Means Clustering Analysis

The Development of Web Log Mining Based on Improve-K-Means Clustering Analysis The Development of Web Log Mnng Based on Improve-K-Means Clusterng Analyss TngZhong Wang * College of Informaton Technology, Luoyang Normal Unversty, Luoyang, 471022, Chna wangtngzhong2@sna.cn Abstract.

More information

The covariance is the two variable analog to the variance. The formula for the covariance between two variables is

The covariance is the two variable analog to the variance. The formula for the covariance between two variables is Regresson Lectures So far we have talked only about statstcs that descrbe one varable. What we are gong to be dscussng for much of the remander of the course s relatonshps between two or more varables.

More information

STATISTICAL DATA ANALYSIS IN EXCEL

STATISTICAL DATA ANALYSIS IN EXCEL Mcroarray Center STATISTICAL DATA ANALYSIS IN EXCEL Lecture 6 Some Advanced Topcs Dr. Petr Nazarov 14-01-013 petr.nazarov@crp-sante.lu Statstcal data analyss n Ecel. 6. Some advanced topcs Correcton for

More information

THE DISTRIBUTION OF LOAN PORTFOLIO VALUE * Oldrich Alfons Vasicek

THE DISTRIBUTION OF LOAN PORTFOLIO VALUE * Oldrich Alfons Vasicek HE DISRIBUION OF LOAN PORFOLIO VALUE * Oldrch Alfons Vascek he amount of captal necessary to support a portfolo of debt securtes depends on the probablty dstrbuton of the portfolo loss. Consder a portfolo

More information

CS 2750 Machine Learning. Lecture 3. Density estimation. CS 2750 Machine Learning. Announcements

CS 2750 Machine Learning. Lecture 3. Density estimation. CS 2750 Machine Learning. Announcements Lecture 3 Densty estmaton Mlos Hauskrecht mlos@cs.ptt.edu 5329 Sennott Square Next lecture: Matlab tutoral Announcements Rules for attendng the class: Regstered for credt Regstered for audt (only f there

More information

Linear Regression Analysis for STARDEX

Linear Regression Analysis for STARDEX Lnear Regresson Analss for STARDEX Malcolm Halock, Clmatc Research Unt The followng document s an overvew of lnear regresson methods for reference b members of STARDEX. Whle t ams to cover the most common

More information

New bounds in Balog-Szemerédi-Gowers theorem

New bounds in Balog-Szemerédi-Gowers theorem New bounds n Balog-Szemeréd-Gowers theorem By Tomasz Schoen Abstract We prove, n partcular, that every fnte subset A of an abelan group wth the addtve energy κ A 3 contans a set A such that A κ A and A

More information

Linear Circuits Analysis. Superposition, Thevenin /Norton Equivalent circuits

Linear Circuits Analysis. Superposition, Thevenin /Norton Equivalent circuits Lnear Crcuts Analyss. Superposton, Theenn /Norton Equalent crcuts So far we hae explored tmendependent (resste) elements that are also lnear. A tmendependent elements s one for whch we can plot an / cure.

More information

Inequality and The Accounting Period. Quentin Wodon and Shlomo Yitzhaki. World Bank and Hebrew University. September 2001.

Inequality and The Accounting Period. Quentin Wodon and Shlomo Yitzhaki. World Bank and Hebrew University. September 2001. Inequalty and The Accountng Perod Quentn Wodon and Shlomo Ytzha World Ban and Hebrew Unversty September Abstract Income nequalty typcally declnes wth the length of tme taen nto account for measurement.

More information

Module 2 LOSSLESS IMAGE COMPRESSION SYSTEMS. Version 2 ECE IIT, Kharagpur

Module 2 LOSSLESS IMAGE COMPRESSION SYSTEMS. Version 2 ECE IIT, Kharagpur Module LOSSLESS IMAGE COMPRESSION SYSTEMS Lesson 3 Lossless Compresson: Huffman Codng Instructonal Objectves At the end of ths lesson, the students should be able to:. Defne and measure source entropy..

More information

Communication Networks II Contents

Communication Networks II Contents 8 / 1 -- Communcaton Networs II (Görg) -- www.comnets.un-bremen.de Communcaton Networs II Contents 1 Fundamentals of probablty theory 2 Traffc n communcaton networs 3 Stochastc & Marovan Processes (SP

More information

Risk-based Fatigue Estimate of Deep Water Risers -- Course Project for EM388F: Fracture Mechanics, Spring 2008

Risk-based Fatigue Estimate of Deep Water Risers -- Course Project for EM388F: Fracture Mechanics, Spring 2008 Rsk-based Fatgue Estmate of Deep Water Rsers -- Course Project for EM388F: Fracture Mechancs, Sprng 2008 Chen Sh Department of Cvl, Archtectural, and Envronmental Engneerng The Unversty of Texas at Austn

More information

Analysis of Premium Liabilities for Australian Lines of Business

Analysis of Premium Liabilities for Australian Lines of Business Summary of Analyss of Premum Labltes for Australan Lnes of Busness Emly Tao Honours Research Paper, The Unversty of Melbourne Emly Tao Acknowledgements I am grateful to the Australan Prudental Regulaton

More information

DEFINING %COMPLETE IN MICROSOFT PROJECT

DEFINING %COMPLETE IN MICROSOFT PROJECT CelersSystems DEFINING %COMPLETE IN MICROSOFT PROJECT PREPARED BY James E Aksel, PMP, PMI-SP, MVP For Addtonal Informaton about Earned Value Management Systems and reportng, please contact: CelersSystems,

More information

Can Auto Liability Insurance Purchases Signal Risk Attitude?

Can Auto Liability Insurance Purchases Signal Risk Attitude? Internatonal Journal of Busness and Economcs, 2011, Vol. 10, No. 2, 159-164 Can Auto Lablty Insurance Purchases Sgnal Rsk Atttude? Chu-Shu L Department of Internatonal Busness, Asa Unversty, Tawan Sheng-Chang

More information

MAPP. MERIS level 3 cloud and water vapour products. Issue: 1. Revision: 0. Date: 9.12.1998. Function Name Organisation Signature Date

MAPP. MERIS level 3 cloud and water vapour products. Issue: 1. Revision: 0. Date: 9.12.1998. Function Name Organisation Signature Date Ttel: Project: Doc. No.: MERIS level 3 cloud and water vapour products MAPP MAPP-ATBD-ClWVL3 Issue: 1 Revson: 0 Date: 9.12.1998 Functon Name Organsaton Sgnature Date Author: Bennartz FUB Preusker FUB Schüller

More information

1. Fundamentals of probability theory 2. Emergence of communication traffic 3. Stochastic & Markovian Processes (SP & MP)

1. Fundamentals of probability theory 2. Emergence of communication traffic 3. Stochastic & Markovian Processes (SP & MP) 6.3 / -- Communcaton Networks II (Görg) SS20 -- www.comnets.un-bremen.de Communcaton Networks II Contents. Fundamentals of probablty theory 2. Emergence of communcaton traffc 3. Stochastc & Markovan Processes

More information

Forecasting the Direction and Strength of Stock Market Movement

Forecasting the Direction and Strength of Stock Market Movement Forecastng the Drecton and Strength of Stock Market Movement Jngwe Chen Mng Chen Nan Ye cjngwe@stanford.edu mchen5@stanford.edu nanye@stanford.edu Abstract - Stock market s one of the most complcated systems

More information

Prediction of Disability Frequencies in Life Insurance

Prediction of Disability Frequencies in Life Insurance Predcton of Dsablty Frequences n Lfe Insurance Bernhard Köng Fran Weber Maro V. Wüthrch October 28, 2011 Abstract For the predcton of dsablty frequences, not only the observed, but also the ncurred but

More information

Prediction of Disability Frequencies in Life Insurance

Prediction of Disability Frequencies in Life Insurance 1 Predcton of Dsablty Frequences n Lfe Insurance Bernhard Köng 1, Fran Weber 1, Maro V. Wüthrch 2 Abstract: For the predcton of dsablty frequences, not only the observed, but also the ncurred but not yet

More information

Support vector domain description

Support vector domain description Pattern Recognton Letters 20 (1999) 1191±1199 www.elsever.nl/locate/patrec Support vector doman descrpton Davd M.J. Tax *,1, Robert P.W. Dun Pattern Recognton Group, Faculty of Appled Scence, Delft Unversty

More information

Portfolio Loss Distribution

Portfolio Loss Distribution Portfolo Loss Dstrbuton Rsky assets n loan ortfolo hghly llqud assets hold-to-maturty n the bank s balance sheet Outstandngs The orton of the bank asset that has already been extended to borrowers. Commtment

More information

Nonlinear data mapping by neural networks

Nonlinear data mapping by neural networks Nonlnear data mappng by neural networks R.P.W. Dun Delft Unversty of Technology, Netherlands Abstract A revew s gven of the use of neural networks for nonlnear mappng of hgh dmensonal data on lower dmensonal

More information

Section 5.4 Annuities, Present Value, and Amortization

Section 5.4 Annuities, Present Value, and Amortization Secton 5.4 Annutes, Present Value, and Amortzaton Present Value In Secton 5.2, we saw that the present value of A dollars at nterest rate per perod for n perods s the amount that must be deposted today

More information

2.4 Bivariate distributions

2.4 Bivariate distributions page 28 2.4 Bvarate dstrbutons 2.4.1 Defntons Let X and Y be dscrete r.v.s defned on the same probablty space (S, F, P). Instead of treatng them separately, t s often necessary to thnk of them actng together

More information

Robust Design of Public Storage Warehouses. Yeming (Yale) Gong EMLYON Business School

Robust Design of Public Storage Warehouses. Yeming (Yale) Gong EMLYON Business School Robust Desgn of Publc Storage Warehouses Yemng (Yale) Gong EMLYON Busness School Rene de Koster Rotterdam school of management, Erasmus Unversty Abstract We apply robust optmzaton and revenue management

More information

Using Series to Analyze Financial Situations: Present Value

Using Series to Analyze Financial Situations: Present Value 2.8 Usng Seres to Analyze Fnancal Stuatons: Present Value In the prevous secton, you learned how to calculate the amount, or future value, of an ordnary smple annuty. The amount s the sum of the accumulated

More information

A statistical approach to determine Microbiologically Influenced Corrosion (MIC) Rates of underground gas pipelines.

A statistical approach to determine Microbiologically Influenced Corrosion (MIC) Rates of underground gas pipelines. A statstcal approach to determne Mcrobologcally Influenced Corroson (MIC) Rates of underground gas ppelnes. by Lech A. Grzelak A thess submtted to the Delft Unversty of Technology n conformty wth the requrements

More information

Feature selection for intrusion detection. Slobodan Petrović NISlab, Gjøvik University College

Feature selection for intrusion detection. Slobodan Petrović NISlab, Gjøvik University College Feature selecton for ntruson detecton Slobodan Petrovć NISlab, Gjøvk Unversty College Contents The feature selecton problem Intruson detecton Traffc features relevant for IDS The CFS measure The mrmr measure

More information

CS 2750 Machine Learning. Lecture 17a. Clustering. CS 2750 Machine Learning. Clustering

CS 2750 Machine Learning. Lecture 17a. Clustering. CS 2750 Machine Learning. Clustering Lecture 7a Clusterng Mlos Hauskrecht mlos@cs.ptt.edu 539 Sennott Square Clusterng Groups together smlar nstances n the data sample Basc clusterng problem: dstrbute data nto k dfferent groups such that

More information

Testing GOF & Estimating Overdispersion

Testing GOF & Estimating Overdispersion Testng GOF & Estmatng Overdsperson Your Most General Model Needs to Ft the Dataset It s mportant that the most general (complcated) model n your canddate model lst fts the data well. Ths model s a benchmark

More information

Forecasting the Demand of Emergency Supplies: Based on the CBR Theory and BP Neural Network

Forecasting the Demand of Emergency Supplies: Based on the CBR Theory and BP Neural Network 700 Proceedngs of the 8th Internatonal Conference on Innovaton & Management Forecastng the Demand of Emergency Supples: Based on the CBR Theory and BP Neural Network Fu Deqang, Lu Yun, L Changbng School

More information

How Sets of Coherent Probabilities May Serve as Models for Degrees of Incoherence

How Sets of Coherent Probabilities May Serve as Models for Degrees of Incoherence 1 st Internatonal Symposum on Imprecse Probabltes and Ther Applcatons, Ghent, Belgum, 29 June 2 July 1999 How Sets of Coherent Probabltes May Serve as Models for Degrees of Incoherence Mar J. Schervsh

More information

"Research Note" APPLICATION OF CHARGE SIMULATION METHOD TO ELECTRIC FIELD CALCULATION IN THE POWER CABLES *

Research Note APPLICATION OF CHARGE SIMULATION METHOD TO ELECTRIC FIELD CALCULATION IN THE POWER CABLES * Iranan Journal of Scence & Technology, Transacton B, Engneerng, ol. 30, No. B6, 789-794 rnted n The Islamc Republc of Iran, 006 Shraz Unversty "Research Note" ALICATION OF CHARGE SIMULATION METHOD TO ELECTRIC

More information

Logistic Regression. Lecture 4: More classifiers and classes. Logistic regression. Adaboost. Optimization. Multiple class classification

Logistic Regression. Lecture 4: More classifiers and classes. Logistic regression. Adaboost. Optimization. Multiple class classification Lecture 4: More classfers and classes C4B Machne Learnng Hlary 20 A. Zsserman Logstc regresson Loss functons revsted Adaboost Loss functons revsted Optmzaton Multple class classfcaton Logstc Regresson

More information

Brigid Mullany, Ph.D University of North Carolina, Charlotte

Brigid Mullany, Ph.D University of North Carolina, Charlotte Evaluaton And Comparson Of The Dfferent Standards Used To Defne The Postonal Accuracy And Repeatablty Of Numercally Controlled Machnng Center Axes Brgd Mullany, Ph.D Unversty of North Carolna, Charlotte

More information

An Alternative Way to Measure Private Equity Performance

An Alternative Way to Measure Private Equity Performance An Alternatve Way to Measure Prvate Equty Performance Peter Todd Parlux Investment Technology LLC Summary Internal Rate of Return (IRR) s probably the most common way to measure the performance of prvate

More information

Although ordinary least-squares (OLS) regression

Although ordinary least-squares (OLS) regression egresson through the Orgn Blackwell Oxford, TEST 0141-98X 003 5 31000 Orgnal Joseph Teachng G. UK Artcle Publshng Esenhauer through Statstcs the Ltd Trust Orgn 001 KEYWODS: Teachng; egresson; Analyss of

More information

MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION IN MINITAB

MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION IN MINITAB MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION IN MINITAB Ths document shows a complcated Mntab multple regresson. It ncludes descrptons of the Mntab commands, and the Mntab output s heavly annotated. Comments n { } are used

More information

Risk Model of Long-Term Production Scheduling in Open Pit Gold Mining

Risk Model of Long-Term Production Scheduling in Open Pit Gold Mining Rsk Model of Long-Term Producton Schedulng n Open Pt Gold Mnng R Halatchev 1 and P Lever 2 ABSTRACT Open pt gold mnng s an mportant sector of the Australan mnng ndustry. It uses large amounts of nvestments,

More information

L10: Linear discriminants analysis

L10: Linear discriminants analysis L0: Lnear dscrmnants analyss Lnear dscrmnant analyss, two classes Lnear dscrmnant analyss, C classes LDA vs. PCA Lmtatons of LDA Varants of LDA Other dmensonalty reducton methods CSCE 666 Pattern Analyss

More information

Lecture 2: Single Layer Perceptrons Kevin Swingler

Lecture 2: Single Layer Perceptrons Kevin Swingler Lecture 2: Sngle Layer Perceptrons Kevn Sngler kms@cs.str.ac.uk Recap: McCulloch-Ptts Neuron Ths vastly smplfed model of real neurons s also knon as a Threshold Logc Unt: W 2 A Y 3 n W n. A set of synapses

More information

ANALYZING THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN QUALITY, TIME, AND COST IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT DECISION MAKING

ANALYZING THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN QUALITY, TIME, AND COST IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT DECISION MAKING ANALYZING THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN QUALITY, TIME, AND COST IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT DECISION MAKING Matthew J. Lberatore, Department of Management and Operatons, Vllanova Unversty, Vllanova, PA 19085, 610-519-4390,

More information

On the Optimal Control of a Cascade of Hydro-Electric Power Stations

On the Optimal Control of a Cascade of Hydro-Electric Power Stations On the Optmal Control of a Cascade of Hydro-Electrc Power Statons M.C.M. Guedes a, A.F. Rbero a, G.V. Smrnov b and S. Vlela c a Department of Mathematcs, School of Scences, Unversty of Porto, Portugal;

More information

7.5. Present Value of an Annuity. Investigate

7.5. Present Value of an Annuity. Investigate 7.5 Present Value of an Annuty Owen and Anna are approachng retrement and are puttng ther fnances n order. They have worked hard and nvested ther earnngs so that they now have a large amount of money on

More information

The Application of Fractional Brownian Motion in Option Pricing

The Application of Fractional Brownian Motion in Option Pricing Vol. 0, No. (05), pp. 73-8 http://dx.do.org/0.457/jmue.05.0..6 The Applcaton of Fractonal Brownan Moton n Opton Prcng Qng-xn Zhou School of Basc Scence,arbn Unversty of Commerce,arbn zhouqngxn98@6.com

More information

Support Vector Machines

Support Vector Machines Support Vector Machnes Max Wellng Department of Computer Scence Unversty of Toronto 10 Kng s College Road Toronto, M5S 3G5 Canada wellng@cs.toronto.edu Abstract Ths s a note to explan support vector machnes.

More information

Optimal Bidding Strategies for Generation Companies in a Day-Ahead Electricity Market with Risk Management Taken into Account

Optimal Bidding Strategies for Generation Companies in a Day-Ahead Electricity Market with Risk Management Taken into Account Amercan J. of Engneerng and Appled Scences (): 8-6, 009 ISSN 94-700 009 Scence Publcatons Optmal Bddng Strateges for Generaton Companes n a Day-Ahead Electrcty Market wth Rsk Management Taken nto Account

More information

Binomial Link Functions. Lori Murray, Phil Munz

Binomial Link Functions. Lori Murray, Phil Munz Bnomal Lnk Functons Lor Murray, Phl Munz Bnomal Lnk Functons Logt Lnk functon: ( p) p ln 1 p Probt Lnk functon: ( p) 1 ( p) Complentary Log Log functon: ( p) ln( ln(1 p)) Motvatng Example A researcher

More information

Least Squares Fitting of Data

Least Squares Fitting of Data Least Squares Fttng of Data Davd Eberly Geoetrc Tools, LLC http://www.geoetrctools.co/ Copyrght c 1998-2016. All Rghts Reserved. Created: July 15, 1999 Last Modfed: January 5, 2015 Contents 1 Lnear Fttng

More information

SIMPLE LINEAR CORRELATION

SIMPLE LINEAR CORRELATION SIMPLE LINEAR CORRELATION Smple lnear correlaton s a measure of the degree to whch two varables vary together, or a measure of the ntensty of the assocaton between two varables. Correlaton often s abused.

More information

Fuzzy Regression and the Term Structure of Interest Rates Revisited

Fuzzy Regression and the Term Structure of Interest Rates Revisited Fuzzy Regresson and the Term Structure of Interest Rates Revsted Arnold F. Shapro Penn State Unversty Smeal College of Busness, Unversty Park, PA 68, USA Phone: -84-865-396, Fax: -84-865-684, E-mal: afs@psu.edu

More information

FORCED CONVECTION HEAT TRANSFER IN A DOUBLE PIPE HEAT EXCHANGER

FORCED CONVECTION HEAT TRANSFER IN A DOUBLE PIPE HEAT EXCHANGER FORCED CONVECION HEA RANSFER IN A DOUBLE PIPE HEA EXCHANGER Dr. J. Mchael Doster Department of Nuclear Engneerng Box 7909 North Carolna State Unversty Ralegh, NC 27695-7909 Introducton he convectve heat

More information

Conversion between the vector and raster data structures using Fuzzy Geographical Entities

Conversion between the vector and raster data structures using Fuzzy Geographical Entities Converson between the vector and raster data structures usng Fuzzy Geographcal Enttes Cdála Fonte Department of Mathematcs Faculty of Scences and Technology Unversty of Combra, Apartado 38, 3 454 Combra,

More information

Efficient Project Portfolio as a tool for Enterprise Risk Management

Efficient Project Portfolio as a tool for Enterprise Risk Management Effcent Proect Portfolo as a tool for Enterprse Rsk Management Valentn O. Nkonov Ural State Techncal Unversty Growth Traectory Consultng Company January 5, 27 Effcent Proect Portfolo as a tool for Enterprse

More information

Ring structure of splines on triangulations

Ring structure of splines on triangulations www.oeaw.ac.at Rng structure of splnes on trangulatons N. Vllamzar RICAM-Report 2014-48 www.rcam.oeaw.ac.at RING STRUCTURE OF SPLINES ON TRIANGULATIONS NELLY VILLAMIZAR Introducton For a trangulated regon

More information

Characterization of Assembly. Variation Analysis Methods. A Thesis. Presented to the. Department of Mechanical Engineering. Brigham Young University

Characterization of Assembly. Variation Analysis Methods. A Thesis. Presented to the. Department of Mechanical Engineering. Brigham Young University Characterzaton of Assembly Varaton Analyss Methods A Thess Presented to the Department of Mechancal Engneerng Brgham Young Unversty In Partal Fulfllment of the Requrements for the Degree Master of Scence

More information

Calibration and Linear Regression Analysis: A Self-Guided Tutorial

Calibration and Linear Regression Analysis: A Self-Guided Tutorial Calbraton and Lnear Regresson Analyss: A Self-Guded Tutoral Part The Calbraton Curve, Correlaton Coeffcent and Confdence Lmts CHM314 Instrumental Analyss Department of Chemstry, Unversty of Toronto Dr.

More information

Inter-Ing 2007. INTERDISCIPLINARITY IN ENGINEERING SCIENTIFIC INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE, TG. MUREŞ ROMÂNIA, 15-16 November 2007.

Inter-Ing 2007. INTERDISCIPLINARITY IN ENGINEERING SCIENTIFIC INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE, TG. MUREŞ ROMÂNIA, 15-16 November 2007. Inter-Ing 2007 INTERDISCIPLINARITY IN ENGINEERING SCIENTIFIC INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE, TG. MUREŞ ROMÂNIA, 15-16 November 2007. UNCERTAINTY REGION SIMULATION FOR A SERIAL ROBOT STRUCTURE MARIUS SEBASTIAN

More information

SPEE Recommended Evaluation Practice #6 Definition of Decline Curve Parameters Background:

SPEE Recommended Evaluation Practice #6 Definition of Decline Curve Parameters Background: SPEE Recommended Evaluaton Practce #6 efnton of eclne Curve Parameters Background: The producton hstores of ol and gas wells can be analyzed to estmate reserves and future ol and gas producton rates and

More information

Single and multiple stage classifiers implementing logistic discrimination

Single and multiple stage classifiers implementing logistic discrimination Sngle and multple stage classfers mplementng logstc dscrmnaton Hélo Radke Bttencourt 1 Dens Alter de Olvera Moraes 2 Vctor Haertel 2 1 Pontfíca Unversdade Católca do Ro Grande do Sul - PUCRS Av. Ipranga,

More information

A hybrid global optimization algorithm based on parallel chaos optimization and outlook algorithm

A hybrid global optimization algorithm based on parallel chaos optimization and outlook algorithm Avalable onlne www.ocpr.com Journal of Chemcal and Pharmaceutcal Research, 2014, 6(7):1884-1889 Research Artcle ISSN : 0975-7384 CODEN(USA) : JCPRC5 A hybrd global optmzaton algorthm based on parallel

More information

The Effect of Mean Stress on Damage Predictions for Spectral Loading of Fiberglass Composite Coupons 1

The Effect of Mean Stress on Damage Predictions for Spectral Loading of Fiberglass Composite Coupons 1 EWEA, Specal Topc Conference 24: The Scence of Makng Torque from the Wnd, Delft, Aprl 9-2, 24, pp. 546-555. The Effect of Mean Stress on Damage Predctons for Spectral Loadng of Fberglass Composte Coupons

More information

Imperial College London

Imperial College London F. Fang 1, C.C. Pan 1, I.M. Navon 2, M.D. Pggott 1, G.J. Gorman 1, P.A. Allson 1 and A.J.H. Goddard 1 1 Appled Modellng and Computaton Group Department of Earth Scence and Engneerng Imperal College London,

More information

Stress test for measuring insurance risks in non-life insurance

Stress test for measuring insurance risks in non-life insurance PROMEMORIA Datum June 01 Fnansnspektonen Författare Bengt von Bahr, Younes Elonq and Erk Elvers Stress test for measurng nsurance rsks n non-lfe nsurance Summary Ths memo descrbes stress testng of nsurance

More information

Institute of Informatics, Faculty of Business and Management, Brno University of Technology,Czech Republic

Institute of Informatics, Faculty of Business and Management, Brno University of Technology,Czech Republic Lagrange Multplers as Quanttatve Indcators n Economcs Ivan Mezník Insttute of Informatcs, Faculty of Busness and Management, Brno Unversty of TechnologCzech Republc Abstract The quanttatve role of Lagrange

More information

NON-PARAMETRIC REGRESSION ESTIMATION FOR DATA WITH EQUAL VALUES

NON-PARAMETRIC REGRESSION ESTIMATION FOR DATA WITH EQUAL VALUES European Scentfc Journal February 24 edton vol., No.4 ISSN: 857 788 (Prnt) e - ISSN 857-743 NON-PARAMETRIC REGRESSION ESTIMATION FOR DATA WITH EQUAL VALUES N. Alp Erll, PhD Department of Econometrcs, Unversty

More information

the Manual on the global data processing and forecasting system (GDPFS) (WMO-No.485; available at http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/manuals.

the Manual on the global data processing and forecasting system (GDPFS) (WMO-No.485; available at http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/manuals. Gudelne on the exchange and use of EPS verfcaton results Update date: 30 November 202. Introducton World Meteorologcal Organzaton (WMO) CBS-XIII (2005) recommended that the general responsbltes for a Lead

More information

Lecture 14: Implementing CAPM

Lecture 14: Implementing CAPM Lecture 14: Implementng CAPM Queston: So, how do I apply the CAPM? Current readng: Brealey and Myers, Chapter 9 Reader, Chapter 15 M. Spegel and R. Stanton, 2000 1 Key Results So Far All nvestors should

More information

Recurrence. 1 Definitions and main statements

Recurrence. 1 Definitions and main statements Recurrence 1 Defntons and man statements Let X n, n = 0, 1, 2,... be a MC wth the state space S = (1, 2,...), transton probabltes p j = P {X n+1 = j X n = }, and the transton matrx P = (p j ),j S def.

More information

Control Charts for Means (Simulation)

Control Charts for Means (Simulation) Chapter 290 Control Charts for Means (Smulaton) Introducton Ths procedure allows you to study the run length dstrbuton of Shewhart (Xbar), Cusum, FIR Cusum, and EWMA process control charts for means usng

More information

NPAR TESTS. One-Sample Chi-Square Test. Cell Specification. Observed Frequencies 1O i 6. Expected Frequencies 1EXP i 6

NPAR TESTS. One-Sample Chi-Square Test. Cell Specification. Observed Frequencies 1O i 6. Expected Frequencies 1EXP i 6 PAR TESTS If a WEIGHT varable s specfed, t s used to replcate a case as many tmes as ndcated by the weght value rounded to the nearest nteger. If the workspace requrements are exceeded and samplng has

More information

Traffic State Estimation in the Traffic Management Center of Berlin

Traffic State Estimation in the Traffic Management Center of Berlin Traffc State Estmaton n the Traffc Management Center of Berln Authors: Peter Vortsch, PTV AG, Stumpfstrasse, D-763 Karlsruhe, Germany phone ++49/72/965/35, emal peter.vortsch@ptv.de Peter Möhl, PTV AG,

More information

Staff Paper. Farm Savings Accounts: Examining Income Variability, Eligibility, and Benefits. Brent Gloy, Eddy LaDue, and Charles Cuykendall

Staff Paper. Farm Savings Accounts: Examining Income Variability, Eligibility, and Benefits. Brent Gloy, Eddy LaDue, and Charles Cuykendall SP 2005-02 August 2005 Staff Paper Department of Appled Economcs and Management Cornell Unversty, Ithaca, New York 14853-7801 USA Farm Savngs Accounts: Examnng Income Varablty, Elgblty, and Benefts Brent

More information

An empirical study for credit card approvals in the Greek banking sector

An empirical study for credit card approvals in the Greek banking sector An emprcal study for credt card approvals n the Greek bankng sector Mara Mavr George Ioannou Bergamo, Italy 17-21 May 2004 Management Scences Laboratory Department of Management Scence & Technology Athens

More information

The Greedy Method. Introduction. 0/1 Knapsack Problem

The Greedy Method. Introduction. 0/1 Knapsack Problem The Greedy Method Introducton We have completed data structures. We now are gong to look at algorthm desgn methods. Often we are lookng at optmzaton problems whose performance s exponental. For an optmzaton

More information

1 Approximation Algorithms

1 Approximation Algorithms CME 305: Dscrete Mathematcs and Algorthms 1 Approxmaton Algorthms In lght of the apparent ntractablty of the problems we beleve not to le n P, t makes sense to pursue deas other than complete solutons

More information

Solutions to the exam in SF2862, June 2009

Solutions to the exam in SF2862, June 2009 Solutons to the exam n SF86, June 009 Exercse 1. Ths s a determnstc perodc-revew nventory model. Let n = the number of consdered wees,.e. n = 4 n ths exercse, and r = the demand at wee,.e. r 1 = r = r

More information

) of the Cell class is created containing information about events associated with the cell. Events are added to the Cell instance

) of the Cell class is created containing information about events associated with the cell. Events are added to the Cell instance Calbraton Method Instances of the Cell class (one nstance for each FMS cell) contan ADC raw data and methods assocated wth each partcular FMS cell. The calbraton method ncludes event selecton (Class Cell

More information

21 Vectors: The Cross Product & Torque

21 Vectors: The Cross Product & Torque 21 Vectors: The Cross Product & Torque Do not use our left hand when applng ether the rght-hand rule for the cross product of two vectors dscussed n ths chapter or the rght-hand rule for somethng curl

More information

Analysis of Covariance

Analysis of Covariance Chapter 551 Analyss of Covarance Introducton A common tas n research s to compare the averages of two or more populatons (groups). We mght want to compare the ncome level of two regons, the ntrogen content

More information

Underwriting Risk. Glenn Meyers. Insurance Services Office, Inc.

Underwriting Risk. Glenn Meyers. Insurance Services Office, Inc. Underwrtng Rsk By Glenn Meyers Insurance Servces Offce, Inc. Abstract In a compettve nsurance market, nsurers have lmted nfluence on the premum charged for an nsurance contract. hey must decde whether

More information

Finite Math Chapter 10: Study Guide and Solution to Problems

Finite Math Chapter 10: Study Guide and Solution to Problems Fnte Math Chapter 10: Study Gude and Soluton to Problems Basc Formulas and Concepts 10.1 Interest Basc Concepts Interest A fee a bank pays you for money you depost nto a savngs account. Prncpal P The amount

More information