Population Existing Conditions. Table of Contents

Transcription

1 Population Existing Conditions Table of Contents OVERVIEW... 3 REGIONAL CONTEXT... 3 STUDY AREA... 4 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS... 4 Age and Gender... 6 Race & Ethnicity... 9 Disability Poverty Education Population Density Population Projections December

2 List of Tables, Figures, and Maps Table 1: Historical Population Trend... 4 Table 2: Median Age... 6 Table 3: Rock Hill Population by Age... 7 Table 4: Rock Hill Racial Composition... 9 Table 5: Racial Composition of Region (2014)... 9 Table 6: Hispanic Population Table 7: Hispanic Population in Ring Cities Table 8: Disability Table 9: Rock Hill Poverty Rate Table 10: Poverty by Age Table 11: Poverty by Race and Ethnicity Table 12: Poverty Rates of Region Table 13: Rock Hill Educational Attainment Table 14: Rock Hill Population Density Trend Table 15: Population Trends & Projections Figure 1: Rock Hill and Planning Area Age Distribution... 7 Figure 2: Rock Hill and Planning Area Distribution By Age and Sex (2010)... 8 Figure 3: Rock Hill and Planning Area Distribution by Age and Sex (2014)... 8 Map 1: Ring Cities... 3 Map 2: Study Area... 5 Map 3: Percent Black Population by Census Tract (2000) Map 4: Percent Black Population by Census Tract (2010) Map 5: Percent Hispanic Population by Census Tract (2000) Map 6: Percent Hispanic Population by Census Tract (2010) Map 7: Poverty Rates by Census Tract (2000) Map 8: Poverty Rates by Census Tract (2011) December

3 Population Existing Conditions OVERVIEW Population growth impacts all City functions including housing, transportation, land use, and the provision of services. Additionally, as the City grows, the composition of its population changes. Understanding changes in household characteristics, education, income, sex, age, and race is essential to understanding and providing for the needs of current and future residents. Rock Hill is located within the fourth fastest growing metro area in the United States from (behind only Las Vegas-Paradise, NV, Raleigh-Cary, NC, and Austin-Round Rock, TX). It is the fourth-largest City in the Charlotte metro area and the largest City in York County, SC. Although the bulk of new growth in York County has been concentrated in Fort Mill and unincorporated areas near Charlotte, growth in Rock Hill has remained steady and is expected to continue into the forseeable future. REGIONAL CONTEXT In order to understand the City of Rock Hill s population demographics, it is important to recognize Rock Hill s location in the broader regional landscape. Rock Hill is a part of the Charlotte-Concord- Gastonia, NC-SC Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The MSA contains ten counties (seven in North Carolina and three in South Carolina). Charlotte is the principle population area and center of the MSA. It is surrounded by several medium-sized outlying communities (referred to as satellite or ring cities), including Rock Hill, that have social and economic relationships with Charlotte (see Map 1). Map 1: Ring Cities Mooresville Kannapolis Concord Gastonia CHARLOTTE Monroe Rock Hill December

4 STUDY AREA The study area for the plan is made up of the Rock Hill city limits, the adopted Urban Services Area (USA) (the area including and immediately surrounding the city limits which may be served by utilities in the future), and the area immediately surrounding the proposed Dave Lyle Boulevard Extension corridor. Map 2 illustrates the extents of the study area. The study area will be referred to throughout the plan as the 2020 Planning Area or Planning Area and data will be provided for the Planning Area whenever available. Where appropriate, Rock Hill population and demographic data is compared to York County, Charlotte, and the other ring cities to provide local context. DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Rock Hill s population grew by 33 percent between 2000 and 2010 and another four percent between 2010 and 2014 (see Table 1). From 2000 to 2010, the City grew faster than the Planning Area, but slower than the County as a whole. Since 2010, the City and Planning Area have grown at a roughly even rate. County growth rates continue to outpace both the City and the Planning Area, and can almost exclusively be attributed to explosive growth in Fort Mill. When compared to Charlotte and the other ring cities, Rock Hill is the fourth-largest City overall and had the third-fastest growth rate among cities between 2000 and 2014 (see Table 1). Table 1: Historical Population Trend 2000 Population 2010 Population 2012 Population 2014 Population % change Source: 2000 and 2010 figures; US Census 2012 figures; American Community Survey (2012 Annual Population Estimate) All Planning Area figures and 2014 figures; ESRI % change Rock Hill 49,765 66,154 68,094 68,693 33% 4% Planning Area 74,686 94,775 n/a 98,746 27% 4% York County SC 164, , , ,243 37% 6% Charlotte NC 540, , , ,251 35% 5% Concord NC 55,977 79,066 81,981 84,439 41% 7% Gastonia NC 66,277 71,741 72,723 73,063 8% 2% Kannapolis NC 36,910 42,625 43,782 44,812 15% 5% Monroe NC 26,228 32,797 33,641 33,720 25% 3% Mooresville NC 18,823 20,953 32,711 33,451 11% 60% December

5 Map 2: Study Area December

6 Age and Gender The median age in Rock Hill has increased from 31.0 in 2000, to 31.9 in 2010, to 33.8 in 2014 (see Table 2), in line with national trends. From 2010 to 2014 Rock Hill s median age grew at a higher rate than the Planning Area, County, Charlotte, and all ring cities. Despite this increase, Rock Hill s median age is still one of the lowest in the region. Although the median age in the Planning Area is slightly higher, it is still low when compared to the larger region. In contrast, York County s median age is high, only Gastonia has a higher median age. Source: 2000 and 2010; US Census 2014; ESRI (Detailed Age Profile Report) Table 2: Median Age % change % change Rock Hill % 5.6% Planning Area % York County SC % 1.9% Charlotte NC % 2.4% Concord NC % 2.0% Gastonia NC % 2.4% Kannapolis NC % 3.7% Monroe NC % 3.4% Mooresville NC % 4.7% The largest population cohorts in the City from 2000 to 2014 were the and cohorts (see Table 3). The share of people in these cohorts, however, continues to decrease over time. The share of the population in the age cohort decreased from 16.2 percent in 2000 to 14.7 percent in 2014, while the share in the age cohort decreased from 14.2 percent in 2000 to 12.5 percent in The growth rate was particularly rapid in the and cohorts, which grew 130 percent and 110 percent between 2000 and 2014 (see Table 3). December

7 Table 3: Rock Hill Population by Age Age Population % of Total Population % of Total Population % of Total % change Under 5 3, , , % 5-9 3, , , % , , , % , , , % , , , % , , , % , , , % , , , % , , , % , , , % , , , % , , , % 85 and over , , % Note: The U.S. Census tabulated age cohorts differently in 2010 than in Some 2010 age cohorts were combined to be consistent with available 2000 data. ESRI age cohorts were also combined to be consistent with 2000 Census data. Source: 2000 and 2010 data; US Census 2014 data; ESRI (Detailed Age Profile Report) Figure 1 illustrates the changes in the distribution of population in Rock Hill and the Planning Area by age group between 2010 and 2014 (2000 census data is not available for the Planning Area). The figure shows that the largest cohorts for both the City and the Planning Area are the late teens and 20 s, but that these cohorts are growing at a slower rate over time. It also reveals that the Planning Area has a slightly older population than the City and that both populations are aging Figure 1: Rock Hill and Planning Area Age Distribution % of Total Population to 9 10 to to to to to to 39 Source: 2000 and 2010 data: US Census 2014 data: ESRI (Detailed Age Profile Report) 40 to 44 Figures 2 and 3 illustrate the distribution of the population by age and sex in the City and Planning Area in 2010 and Females outnumbered males in the and cohorts and all cohorts age 60 and above in both 2010 and The most noticeable difference between the number of males and females was in the 20 to 24 cohort in 2010, where there were almost two percent more 45 to to to to to to to to and over December

8 females than males. Although females continued to outnumber males in this cohort in 2014, the difference was less drastic. In contrast, males outnumbered females in all cohorts 14 and younger and cohorts between 30 and 49 in both 2010 and The only cohort where there was a change in majority was the cohort, which was predominantly male in 2010, but transitioned to predominantly female by Figure 2: Rock Hill and Planning Area Distribution By Age and Sex (2010) Source: ESRI (Detailed Age Profile Report) Figure 3: Rock Hill and Planning Area Distribution by Age and Sex (2014) Source: ESRI (Detailed Age Profile Report) December

9 Race & Ethnicity Rock Hill s population is becoming diverse. Both the White and Black or African American populations decreased from 2000 to 2014, while people who classify themselves as some other race or multi-racial increased (see Table 4). The percentage of people who classify themselves as White is higher in the Planning Area, although this number declined from 2010 to Table 4: Rock Hill Racial Composition Rock Hill Planning Area Race White 58.7% 54.6% 56.5% 62.9% 61.9% Black or African American 37.3% 38.3% 35.7% 30.0% 30.3% Asian 1.4% 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.7% Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% American Indian and Alaska Native 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.9% 0.7% Some Other Race 1.0% 2.7% 3.4% 2.6% 3.1% Two or More Races 1.0% 2.1% 2.2% 2.0% 2.2% Source: 2000; US Census 2010 and 2014 data; ESRI (Community Profile Report) Only Charlotte and Monroe have a greater percentage of races other than White than Rock Hill or the Planning Area, and Rock Hill has the highest percentage of Blacks or African Americas in the region (see Table 5). Source: ESRI (Community Profile Report) Table 5: Racial Composition of Region (2014) Race Rock Hill Planning Area Charlotte Concord Gastonia Kannapolis Monroe Mooresville White 56.5% 61.9% 48.2% 68.6% 63.0% 67.2% 53.2% 79.1% Black or African American 35.7% 30.3% 35.2% 17.9% 27.8% 20.1% 22.9% 10.6% Asian 1.7% 1.7% 5.6% 4.7% 1.3% 0.4% 1.1% 4.2% Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% American Indian and Alaska Native 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.6% 0.5% Some Other Race 3.4% 3.1% 7.6% 8.1% 5.2% 8.2% 19.6% 2.9% Two or More Races 2.2% 2.2% 2.9% 2.8% 2.2% 2.6% 2.6% 2.7% The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) has determined that an area demonstrates a disproportionate share of a population when the percentage of that population is 10 percentage points or more above the study area average. The 2014 City of Rock Hill Analysis of Impediments to Fair Housing Choice found that the Black or African American population was disproportionately concentrated in southwestern Rock Hill. In 2000, more than half of all residents were Black or African American over much of the southwestern portion of the City. In the large census tract to the southwest of the City Center, more than 9 in 10 residents were Black or African American (see Map 3). The geographic distribution of the Black or African American population changed very little by 2010 (see Map 4). December

10 Map 3: Percent Black Population by Census Tract (2000) Source: 2014 Analysis of Impediments to Fair Housing Choice December

11 Map 4: Percent Black Population by Census Tract (2010) Source: 2014 Analysis of Impediments to Fair Housing Choice December

12 Rock Hill has experienced a dramatic increase in its Hispanic population, which more than doubled from 2.5 percent in 2000 to 5.7 percent in 2010 (see Table 6), although this figure may underrepresent the actual Hispanic or Latino population as it does not account for undocumented immigrants. Despite the rapid growth in the Hispanic population, Rock Hill has the lowest percentage of Hispanics of the ring cities (see Table 7). Source: 2000 & 2010 US Census Table 6: Hispanic Population % Change Population % of Total Population % of Total Non-Hispanic 48, % 62, % 28.6% Hispanic 1, % 3, % 204.3% TOTAL 49, % 66, % Table 7: Hispanic Population in Ring Cities % Hispanic Rock Hill 5.7% Charlotte 13.1% Concord 12.3% Gastonia 9.6% Kannapolis 12.1% Monroe 29.4% Mooresville 6.9% Source: 2010 US Census According to the 2014 City of Rock Hill Analysis of Impediments to Fair Housing Choice, there was no apparent change in the distribution of the Hispanic population between 2000 and 2010, even as the share of the total population made up of Hispanic residents more than doubled. Although neither year saw a disproportionate concentration of Hispanic residents in any particular area, there were areas with above-average concentrations of Hispanic residents in both 2000 and Such areas included the large Census tract to the north of Downtown, as well as areas to the far north and northeast (see Maps 5 and 6). December

13 Map 5: Percent Hispanic Population by Census Tract (2000) Source: 2014 Analysis of Impediments to Fair Housing Choice December

14 Map 6: Percent Hispanic Population by Census Tract (2010) Source: 2014 Analysis of Impediments to Fair Housing Choice December

15 Disability The Census Bureau defines disability as a lasting physical, mental, or emotional condition that makes it difficult for a person to conduct daily activities of living or impedes him or her from being able to go outside the home alone or to work. In total, 11.8 percent of the population in Rock Hill is classified as disabled. Of those classified as disabled, 41.3 percent are 65 and older (see Table 8). Poverty Table 8: Disability Number % Total 7, % Under % 18 to 64 4, % 65 and older 2, % Source: ACS 5 Yr Estimate The poverty rate in Rock Hill grew from 14 percent in 2000 to 18.5 percent in 2010 (see Table 9). Of those 18.5 percent, almost one-quarter are children under the age of 18 (see Table 10). Table 9: Rock Hill Poverty Rate change 14.0% 18.5% 4.5% Source: US Census Table 10: Poverty by Age Below poverty level % below poverty level Total Population for whom poverty status is determined 63,099 11, % AGE Under 18 15,900 3, % Related children under 18 15,837 3, % 18 to 64 40,812 7, % 65 and over 6, % Source: ACS 5 Yr Estimate Minority populations have the highest poverty rates in the City (see Table 11). Races with higher than the average poverty rates include Blacks or African Americans (26.3 percent), American Indian and Alaska Natives (41.1 percent), and people who classify themselves as two more races (29.4 percent). The poverty rate of Hispanics or Latinos is also higher than average at 27.2 percent (see Table 11). Although the City has a relatively high poverty rate when compared to the metro region, the rate of increase of poverty was the lowest in the region. Charlotte and all of the ring cities experienced a December

16 near double to more than double increase in poverty rates over the twelve-year time period whereas Rock Hill s increase was 32 percent (see Table 12). Table 11: Poverty by Race and Ethnicity Below poverty level % below poverty level RACE AND HISPANIC OR LATINO ORIGIN Total One race 61,594 11, % White 34,635 4, % Black or African American 24,931 6, % American Indian and Alaska Native % Asian % Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander Some other race % Two or more races 1, % Hispanic or Latino origin (of any race) 3, % White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 32,660 3, % Source: ACS 5 Yr Estimate Table 12: Poverty Rates of Region change Rock Hill SC 14.0% 18.5% 4.5% York County SC 7.3% 13.2% 5.9% Charlotte NC 7.8% 16.0% 8.2% Concord NC 5.8% 12.5% 6.7% Gastonia NC 11.8% 21.4% 9.6% Kannapolis NC 7.7% 18.1% 10.4% Monroe NC 11.7% 23.0% 11.3% Mooresville NC 5.6% 10.7% 5.1% Source: ACS 5 Yr Estimate High areas of poverty are found in pockets throughout the City. In 2000, the poverty rate was disproportionately high in the large tract to the immediate southwest of downtown, where 25.7 percent of households were considered to be living in poverty. There were no other areas with disproportionately high poverty rates in 2000, but there were several Census tracts clustered in downtown/old Town that had above-average poverty rates (see Map 7). In 2011, 43.9 percent of households in the large Census tract immediately southwest of Heckle Boulevard were observed to be living in poverty. This figure exceeds the 2011 disproportionate share threshold (27.6 percent) by over 16 percentage points. Other tracts with a disproportionate share of households living in poverty were observed in downtown and Census tracts directly north of downtown. Tracts with aboveaverage poverty rates were generally concentrated in the same areas in which they had been concentrated in 2000 (see Map 8). December

17 Map 7: Poverty Rates by Census Tract (2000) Source: 2014 City of Rock Hill Analysis of Impediments to Fair Housing Choice December

18 Map 8: Poverty Rates by Census Tract (2011) Source: 2014 City of Rock Hill Analysis of Impediments to Fair Housing Choice December

19 Education Nearly 86 percent of Rock Hill residents in 2012 graduated high school, up 10 percent from Rock Hill has the third highest high school graduation rates in the region, behind only Mooresville and Charlotte (see Table 13). The percentage of residents with a bachelor s degree or higher also rose from 24.3 percent in 2000 to 27.3 percent in Although this rate is also the second highest behind Charlotte, the rate is much lower than that of Charlotte. Thirty-nine percent of residents in Charlotte have a bachelor s degree or higher compared to 27 percent in Rock Hill (see Table 13). Table 13: Rock Hill Educational Attainment Percent high school graduate or higher Percent bachelors degree or higher Percent high school graduate or higher Percent bachelors degree or higher Percent high school graduate or higher Percent bachelors degree or higher Rock Hill 75.20% 24.30% 84.90% 26.80% 85.60% 27.30% Charlotte 84.90% 36.40% 87.40% 39.10% 88.00% 39.40% Concord 79.20% 22.80% 83.30% 25.80% 85.30% 26.40% Gastonia 72.20% 20.20% 78.80% 22.70% 80.40% 21.90% Kannapolis 69.40% 12.00% 78.30% 15.70% 80.40% 16.90% Monroe 67.60% 15.60% 75.70% 16.00% 73.30% 15.90% Mooresville 82.40% 22.80% 88.50% 25.80% 90.50% 26.80% Source: 2000; US Census 2010; ACS 5 Yr Estimate 2012; ACS 5 Yr Estimate The percentage of high school graduates in Rock Hill in 2012 is higher than state average (84%) and comparable to the national average (85.7%). Rock Hill also saw the greatest percentage increase in high school graduates in the region from 2000 to The percentage of residents with a bachelor s degree or higher is higher than the state average (24.6%), but lower than the national average (28.5%). Population Density Accommodating rapid population growth can be a challenge. The location of new development can contribute to sprawl, increase the cost to provide services, and threaten service efficiency. The City is conscious of these impacts and is working to minimize them. First, the City established the Grow Inside First Core Community Value during the development of the original 2020 Comprehensive Plan. This value has been emphasized in other planning documents and guides many decision-making processes related to growth. The City established a Growth Management and Annexation Committee (GMAC) to discuss annexation and utility requests and whether they are consistent with this value before granting approval. The City has several programs and organizations dedicated to increasing home ownership in downtown (see the Housing element for more information). City staff also serves on local boards and committees, such as Rock Hill School District Three s Facilities Master Planning Team, to influence the location of new schools. All of these efforts have helped the City manage growth. As shown in Table 14, from 2000 to 2010 the City became denser. Although it appears that the City has become less dense since 2010, this figure is misleading. Most of the land annexed after 2010 was in Riverwalk (the City s first mixed-use December

20 development), and the residential component of the development is still being constructed. When completed, the mix of housing types and uses will be a model for how to increase density in the City, while offering a product that is attractive and embraced by the community. Population Projections Table 14: Rock Hill Population Density Trend Year Population Land Area (Acres) Density (People/Acre) ,765 20, ,154 23, ,693 24, Source: City of Rock Hill 2014 Annual Growth Report Rock Hill and the Planning Area experienced steady population growth from 2000 to 2010, 33 percent and 27 percent respectively. Population growth has continued, but at a slower pace from 2010 to Population growth is anticipated to increase throughout the rest of the decade as the City and larger region fully recover from the Great Recession. By 2020, it is expected that the City will have around 73,000 residents and the Planning Area close to 106,000 residents (see Table 15). Table 15: Population Trends & Projections Rock Hill 49,765 66,154 68,991 73,252 Planning Area - 94,775 99, ,030 Source: 2000 and 2010 data; US Census All Planning Area figures and 2015 and 2020 figures; ESRI (Community Profile Report) December