km/ km 2,500 m ( GDP), , 40 % 1. 2

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1 22 3 Vol. 22 No Geography and Geo - Information Science May ( ; ; ) : (Landsat TM/ ETM) : ; ; :P901 ;X ; TP79 :A : (2006) [1 2 ] m m m 2 [3-5 ] km/ km m ( GDP) % t/ km t/ km t [6 ] 1. 2 [6 7 ] [4 ] (1) Landsat TM/ ETM [8-11 ] hm hm hm hm 2 : ; : : ( ) : ( ) 30 E - mail ac. cn

2 % 7. 3 % % hm hm hm % % 2. 7 % % Fig. 1 Landscape distribution of Qingyang in 1985 and 2000 (1) hm hm 2 ( % 205 ) hm 2 hm hm ( :hm 2 ) Table 1 Conversion matrix of landscapes categories in Qingyang from 1985 to : [8 ] ; 25 ; ; 25 ( 3 ) ( ) (2) [4 ] 2 Table 2 Coeff icient matrix of main driving factors influencing landscape successions in Qingyang GDP : ; 100 m ; [4 GDP 2000 ] m 2

3 3 : ; 1985 (2) : (2) (a) (b) (c) Fig. 2 Landscape distribution based on baseline(a) economically - oriented( b) and ecologically - oriented( c) scenarios in and 2015 of Qingyang

4 hm 2 ; hm hm hm 2 ; hm hm hm hm hm hm hm hm 2 (2) hm hm 2 ; 3 (3) ( ) 145 hm Table 3 Landscape conversion based on economically - oriented baseline and ecologically - oriented scenarios from 2005 to 2015 in Qingyang ; ;

5 3 : : [1 ]. [ M ]. : [ M ]. : [2 ]. [ M ]. [J ] (6) : : [ 3 ]. [J ] (5) : [J ] (1) : [ 4 ]. Yulin prefecture [J ]. Journal of Geographical Sciences [J ] (2) : [5 ]. [J ] (2) : [6 ] LU C H VAN I M K RABBIN GE R. A scenario exploration of strategic land use options for the Loess Plateau in northern China [J ]. Agricultural Systems : [7 ] CHEN L D WAN G J FU B J et al. Land use change in a small catchments of northern Loess Plateau China [ J ]. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ (2) : [ 8 ] [ 9 ]. [10 ]. [ 11 ] ZHAN J Y DEN G X Z YU E T X. Landscape change detection in (1) : Scenarios Analysis on the Landscape Change in Qingyang Prefecture Based on System Dynamic Model ZHAN Jin - yan 1 DEN G Xiang - zheng 2 ZHAO Tao 3 ( 1. Institute of Geographical Sciences and N atural Resources Research CA S Beijing ; 2. Center f or Chinese A gricultural Policy CA S Beijing ; 3. B ureau of Science and Technology f or Resources and Environment CA S Beijing China) Abstract : The dynamic simulation and scenario analyses on the spatio - temporal patterns of landscape change has become a hotspot in the research field of landscape ecology is involved with many driving factors. The landscape change of Loess Plateau areas character2 ized by ecologically fragile is more and more concerned by scholars. Affected by the increase of population as well as environmental degradation great changes have taken place in the structure of landscape in the Loess Plateau areas which further has resulted in a se2 ries of environment crises. This paper reclassified the driving factors into three categories (stable controlling factors seasonal changing factors and socio - economic factors) and revealed the influencing direction and intensity of different factors on landscape change by lo2 gistic analyses between landscape change and its driving factors. Regarding the system dynamic model as the modeling framework this paper designed models to simulate the spatio - temporal patterns of landscape change in Qingyang prefecture. In terms of the results of the system dynamic model of landscape change and the change of social and economic factors this paper realized the dynamic simula2 tions of landscape change as well as the scenario analyses of baseline ecologically - oriented and economically - oriented models in Qingyang prefecture. The comparisons of the simulated results of baseline ecologically - oriented and economically - oriented scenarios disclose the competitions and successions of landscapes in spatial and temporal scales affected by the integrated effects from all kinds of driving factors. The findings show that some effective measures should be taken to hold back the irreversible but irrational conversions among landscapes to protect the eco - environment and go along with a sustainable development in Qingyang prefecture. In this sense the research results will serve the decision - making on landscape planning the rational exploitation of land resources and the imple2 mentation of sustainable development strategy of Qingyang prefecture. Key words : landscape change ;scenario analyses ;system dynamic model ;Qingyang