Chapter 4: Reasons for Belief and Doubt

Transcription

1 Chapter 4: Reasons for Belief and Doubt Strategies to correct unsupported or unreasonable beliefs When are there good reasons to doubt? We do not want to be neigh-sayers or unreasonable skeptics! When are there good reasons to believe? We do not want our beliefs to be mere beliefs, or do we?

2 Principle The better the reasons for acceptance, the more likely the belief is to be true We need to know what good reasons are

3 FAILED REASONS Inadequate reasons; no reasons or fake reasons Mostly concerned with the first two, more on the last in next chapter Unsupported claims They are everywhere

4 CONFLICTING CLAIMS If we have two opposing, contradictory claims, one must be false and the other true Sometimes claims conflict with other claims we know to be true (facts) or we have good reason to believe

5 RESOLVING CONFLICTS Tests: Simply looking E.g. friend: your dog is eating the garbage You: my dog is not eating the garbage

6 RESOLVING CONFLICTS Other tests: Research of evidence, finding evidence for or against Using background information huge collection of very well supported beliefs that we all rely on to inform our actions and choices.

7 BACKGROUND INFORMATION Basic facts about things common sense or knowledge Claim: some babies can bench press five hundred pounds Quantity of Conflict: For any given claim, if it conflicts with many background facts, the more reason we have for doubting it.

8 BACKGROUND INFO, cont. When our background information is unfounded. Proportioning our belief to the evidence. Stronger belief due to stronger evidence Weaker belief due to weaker evidence

9 EXPERTS AND EXPERTISE When claim comes from a genuine expert, we have reason to belief it Expertise means knowledge and ability

10 PRINCIPLES TO GUIDE US 1. Claims that conflict with expert opinion should be doubted 2. When experts disagree about a claim, this claim should be doubted

11 APPEAL TO AUTHORITY A Fallacy When the so-called expert is not an expert. 2 ways to tell: 1. Expert is not an expert in specified field but another instead Expertise is specialized knowledge

12 APPEAL TO AUTHORITY, cont. 2. When expertise is a sham, false expertise Endorsers! Expertise due to prestige, status, popularity, starstatus

13 GENUINE EXPERTISE 4 indicators of genuine expertise a. education and training from reputable institutes b. experience in making good judgements. 2 others: C. reputation among peers (peer review) D. professional accomplishments Last two most helpful but not fool-proof

14 LIMITS OF EXPERTISE In some contexts experts may not be as helpful: moral, social and political questions

15 PERSONAL EXPERIENCE Principle/Rule of Thumb: Use personal experience as evidence only if there is no good reason to doubt this experience

16 IMPAIRMENT Conditions: Internal: illness, injury, weariness, stress, drugged, distracted or disoriented External: Environment Darkness, brightness, fogged, noisy, busy or crowded

17 SELF IMPAIRMENT Our faculties seem at times to work to construct or remark memories, concoct creative representations. Placebo Effect

18 EXPECTATION We perceive what we expect to perceive! Open to suggestion, the power of this! (hypnosis, magic) We do this because we form the expectations ourselves

19 INNUMERACY Problems calculating probability Not to worry too much about this Caution: do not overemphasize coincidence, probabilities work! Gambler s Fallacy: Coin tossing

20 WAYS WE FOOL OURSELVES Self-deception again Resisting Contrary Evidence Refusal to accept disconfirming evidence (We might face save to this end)

21 WAYS WE FOOL OURSELVES Confirming Evidence: Confirmation Bias in science. All swans are white: Universal statements All unicorns have horns!? Statements that are true a priori Statements requiring evidence

22 PREFERENCE FOR AVAILABLE EVIDENCE Evidence that is striking, memorable, thrilling, impressive Being impressed by the emotional and psychological intensity of the information Popular hysteria: cell phones/cancer

23 CLAIMS IN THE NEWS Media onslaught of unsupported claims Knowledge=transforming information via critical thinking into true belief

24 THE NEWS INDUSTRY A business that seeks to maximize profit newspapers, organizations, radio, magazines, websites, etc. Not all is created equal! Some are better sources, etc. more reliable

25 GETTING BIG AUDIENCES Required to sell more expensive advertising and increase profit Pressure to turn a good profit is immense: it colours what is reported, how much is reported, etc.

26 GETTING BIG AUDIENCES Compromise of objectivity by skewing reports Result: watered down, inoffensive stories Canned News. Predigested stories: Those given to the news agencies by publicists, public relations people working for corporations, etc. Omission/Selectivity

27 ROLE OF REPORTERS Loaded language, omissions, manipulation of tone, sensationalism, editorializing

28 SIZING UP REPORTS Use principle of conflict: If report conflicts with other reports or with background knowledge or with expert opinion, the report should be doubted

29 STRATEGIES Reporter Slanting Language Lack False Emphasis Alternative Sources

30 ADVERTISING AND PERSUASION Pervasive and Invasive Consumer culture, market society Ads are designed to persuade and manipulate, not support!

31 ADVERTISING AND PERSUASION Advertisement power: we like it, sometimes more than the programs or stories or news itself Its persuasive power is not only grounds for doubting advertising claims but for diagnosing its ills

32 PERSUASIVE TECHNIQUES IDENTIFICATION Vicarious living SLOGANS/HOOKS MISLEADING COMPARISONS WEASEL WORDS