Session One. Technology Roadmaps

Transcription

1 Session One Technology Roadmaps

2 Powertrains Matthias Wellers Managing Director at AVL Powertrain UK Ltd

3 BVRLA Technology Congress FUTURE PROSPECTS FOR PROPULSION A view on the Powertrain Matthias Wellers AVL Powertrain UK Ltd.

4 GLOBAL FACTS AND TRENDS Man made 4% Domestic 16% Public 2% Business 20% CHANGE Energy 40% Transport 22% Water 10% Air 12% billion 30% in cities CO billion 70% in cities Cars 45% Trucks 23% Buses 6% Rail 2% 68 Million / +37 Million You Partner in Powertrain 6 July

5 POWERTRAIN YESTERDAY AND TOMORROW Society Costs Legislation CO 2 Emission Differentiation You Partner in Powertrain 6 July

6 EMISSION LEGISLATION LOAD COLLECTIVE NEDC VS. RDE You Partner in Powertrain 6 July

7 EMISSION LEGISLATION LOAD COLLECTIVE NEDC VS. RDE Real Driving Emissions NEDC New European Driving Cycle You Partner in Powertrain 6 July

8 EMISSION LEGISLATION LOAD COLLECTIVE NEDC VS. RDE Real Driving Emissions NEDC New European Driving Cycle Random Test cycle Chassis Dyno Simulation You Partner in Powertrain 6 July

9 EMISSION LEGISLATION LOAD COLLECTIVE NEDC VS. RDE Real Driving Emissions NEDC New European Driving Cycle Random Test cycle Chassis Dyno Simulation PEMS Portable Emission Measurement System You Partner in Powertrain 6 July

10 8 6 FUEL ECONOMY IMPROVEMENT TRANSMISSION MEASURES Traction Force - N Engine & 4 speed Max. Power Curve (Theoretical) Powe r Drop BMEP 4 cyl [kpa] BMEP BSFC [g/kwh] N [1/min] Engine Speed You Partner in Powertrain 6 July

11 8 6 FUEL ECONOMY IMPROVEMENT TRANSMISSION MEASURES Traction Force - N Engine & 4 speed BSFC < 240 g/kwh Energy consumed (WLTC) BMEP 4 cyl [kpa] BMEP BSFC < 240 g/kwh N [1/min] Engine Speed BSFC [g/kwh] You Partner in Powertrain 6 July

12 FUEL ECONOMY IMPROVEMENT TRANSMISSION MEASURES Traction Force - N Engine & 4 speed BSFC < 240 g/kwh Energy consumed (WLTC) Increased no. of gears Engine & 9 speed BSFC < 240 g/kwh You Partner in Powertrain 6 July

13 8 6 FUEL ECONOMY IMPROVEMENT ENGINE MEASURES BSFC < 240 g/kwh BSFC < 240 g/kwh Engine & 6 speed BMEP 4 cyl [kpa] BMEP N [1/min] Engine Speed BSFC [g/kwh] You Partner in Powertrain 6 July

14 8 6 FUEL ECONOMY IMPROVEMENT ENGINE MEASURES Traction Force - N Engine & 6 speed BSFC < 240 g/kwh Energy consumed (WLTC) Engine & 6 speed BMEP 4 cyl [kpa] BMEP BSFC < 240 g/kwh N [1/min] Engine Speed BSFC [g/kwh] You Partner in Powertrain 6 July

15 8 6 FUEL ECONOMY IMPROVEMENT ENGINE MEASURES Traction Force - N Engine & 6 speed BSFC < 240 g/kwh Energy consumed (WLTC) BMEP 4 cyl [kpa] BMEP BSFC < 240 g/kwh N [1/min] Engine Speed BSFC [g/kwh] You Partner in Powertrain 6 July

16 FUEL ECONOMY IMPROVEMENT FURTHER MEASURES Engine & 6 speed + BSFC < 240 g/kwh Traction Force - N Recharging Energy consumed (WLTC) Hybridization allows electric driving at low power requirements where the ICE would otherwise operate inefficiently You Partner in Powertrain 6 July

17 FUEL ECONOMY IMPROVEMENT FURTHER MEASURES Engine & 6 speed + BSFC < 240 g/kwh Traction Force - N Recharging Energy consumed (WLTC) Hybridization allows electric Further driving Hybridization low power allows requirements at where low vehicle the ICE speed electric driving would e.g. otherwise Inner cities operate inefficiently You Partner in Powertrain 6 July

18 FUEL ECONOMY IMPROVEMENT ALLOCATION OF FUNCTIONALITIES Transmission Combustion Engine Electrification MT 5 MT 7 MT AMT DCT 6 DCT 9+ AT 5 AT 9+ CVT std CVT adv Transmission Functionalty Variabilty ICE Increasing Electrification Start/Stop std Start/Stop adv E-Charger BSG / ISG 48 V 12 20kW MHEV HEV PHEV BEV + REX From FULLY FLEXIBLE ICE towards FULLY FLEXIBLE POWERTRAIN Flexibility where most cost effective within the whole powertrain Confidential 37

19 THANK YOU

20 Autonomous Systems Sven Lanwer Head of Project Management & Customer Chief Engineer at Robert Bosch UK

21 THE ROAD TO AUTOMATED DRIVING Robert Bosch GmbH, Chassis Systems Control Sven Lanwer Customer Chief Engineer Chassis and Driver Assistance for Jaguar Land Rover

22 BVRLA - Fleet Technology Congress 2016 The world is changing Demography Urbanization, Energy & climate Connectivity Democratization of mobility Improved safety Higher fuel efficiency Reduced congestion Gain in productivity Over-65 segment growing 50% faster than overall population Allow all age ranges to be mobile 90% of all accidents caused by human errors Reduction in motor vehicle accident rates Fewer traffic jams, less waiting time at intersections and lights 80% improvement in traffic throughput 1 23 to 39% improvement in highway fuel economy 2 Time in transit becomes more productive 56 minutes per day freed up for other uses 3 2 Confidential Chassis Systems Control CC/EJL 06/07/2016 Robert Bosch GmbH All rights reserved, also regarding any disposal, exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights. 1 Shladover, Steven, Dongyan Su and Ziao-Yun Lu (2012), Impacts of Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control on Freeway Traffic Flow, 91 st Annual Meeting of TRB, Washington. 2 Atiyeh, Clifford (2012), Predicting Traffic Patterns, One Honda at a Time, MSN Auto, June US Department of Transportation Highway Safety Administration (2011), Report # FHWA-PL-II Hayes, Brian (2011), Leave the Driving to it, American Scientist, 99:

23 BVRLA - Fleet Technology Congress 2016 Accidents with casualties in Germany / Installation rates 100% 80% 60% Accidents with casualties 1,3 30% Further potential: assistance systems/ active safety (45%) 40% 20% Driver assistance 1,2 increased automation (37%) ESP Automated driving 4 0% [no car involved: 18%] Increased automation can address 37% of today s accidents 3 Confidential Chassis Systems Control CC/EJL 06/07/2016 Robert Bosch GmbH All rights reserved, also regarding any disposal, exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights. Source: Bosch Accident Research, DAT, DESTATIS 1 Installation rate and figures estimated as of 2014, 2 AEB including AEB VRU, LDW/LKS, Night Vision, Lane Change Assist (incl. BSD), Crossing Assist, Left Turn Assist, 3 100% in 1999 = accidents w/ casualties, 4 possible Installation rate of automated function e.g.highway Pilot

24 BVRLA - Fleet Technology Congress 2016 Automation saves lives and provides fun to drive Automation focus: Driver is relieved from driving tasks, enable non driving tasks Productivity, Media consumption, Communication Overwhelmed Automation focus: Avoid accidents Automation focus: Driver involvement, offer necessary driving tasks, avoid accidents Other Tasks Under stimulated Driving Fun Factor Active Driving Automation focus: Observe, evaluate, offer information (Co-Pilot) User Driving tasks 4 Confidential Chassis Systems Control CC/EJL 06/07/2016 Robert Bosch GmbH All rights reserved, also regarding any disposal, exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights. 43 Automated Driving can offer a dedicated support to the driver Automated Driving enables a new dimension of Driving pleasure

25 BVRLA - Fleet Technology Congress 2016 Function importance: Market Assumption Differentiating Functions & AD Traffic Jam Assist Highway Pilot Construction Zone Assist Standard functions Light functions Adaptive Cruise Control Traffic Sign Recognition Mandatory functions 5 NCAP Bundle Lane Departure Warning Backover Avoidance Confidential Chassis Systems Control CC/EJL 06/07/2016 Robert Bosch GmbH All rights reserved, also regarding any disposal, exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights.

26 BVRLA - Fleet Technology Congress 2016 Function importance: Market Assumption High Market Market A/B vehicle segment C/D vehicle segment E/F vehicle segment Market penetration Low Mandatory functions Standard functions Differentiating & AD functions 6 Confidential Chassis Systems Control CC/EJL 06/07/2016 Robert Bosch GmbH All rights reserved, also regarding any disposal, exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights.

27 BVRLA - Fleet Technology Congress 2016 Steps towards automated driving Parking Features Assisted driving Partially automated Highly to fully automated driving Low speed manoeuvring Supports the driver Supervised by driver Reduced driver supervision As automation increases less supervision by driver required 7 Confidential Chassis Systems Control CC/EJL 06/07/2016 Robert Bosch GmbH All rights reserved, also regarding any disposal, exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights.

28 BVRLA - Fleet Technology Congress 2016 Parking Features Remote Park Pilot 2020 Automated valet parking Gen1 (Infrastructure) 2018 Gen2 (Automated) >2020 Remote Park Assist 2016 Garage Park Assist Series Homezone Park Assist Confidential Chassis Systems Control CC/EJL 06/07/2016 Robert Bosch GmbH All rights reserved, also regarding any disposal, exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights.

29 BVRLA - Fleet Technology Congress 2016 Assisted Driving Assisted Driving Evasive steering support 2015 Automatic emergency braking since Confidential Chassis Systems Control CC/EJL 06/07/2016 Robert Bosch GmbH All rights reserved, also regarding any disposal, exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights.

30 BVRLA - Fleet Technology Congress 2016 Partially automated: Systems are already on the road Partially Automated Highway assist 2018 Evasive steering support 2015 Integrated cruise assist 2017 Automatic emergency braking since 2010 Traffic jam assist Confidential Chassis Systems Control CC/EJL 06/07/2016 Robert Bosch GmbH All rights reserved, also regarding any disposal, exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights.

31 BVRLA - Fleet Technology Congress 2016 Highly automated to fully automated systems Highly/Fully Automated Driving Auto pilot >2025 Highway assist 2019 Highway pilot 2021 Evasive steering support 2015 Integrated cruise assist 2017 Traffic Jam pilot 2019 Automatic emergency braking since 2010 Traffic jam assist Confidential Chassis Systems Control CC/EJL 06/07/2016 Robert Bosch GmbH All rights reserved, also regarding any disposal, exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights.

32 BVRLA - Fleet Technology Congress 2016 Broad systems expertise as key to success Braking: ESP, Steering: Electric power steering Sensing: Radar, Video, Ultrasonic HMI/Navigation Engine Control Unit Connectivity ibooster 12 Confidential Chassis Systems Control CC/EJL 06/07/2016 Robert Bosch GmbH All rights reserved, also regarding any disposal, exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights.

33 BVRLA - Fleet Technology Congress 2016 Conclusion: Automated driving is Invented for life Automated driving is coming gradually. will increase road safety. will synchronize traffic flows better, and so improve efficiency. will irreversibly change the vehicle architecture. will require a new regulatory framework. 13 Confidential Chassis Systems Control CC/EJL 06/07/2016 Robert Bosch GmbH All rights reserved, also regarding any disposal, exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights.

34 THANK YOU

35 Connected Services Lee Colman Head of Connected Car at SBD Automotive

36 SBD Connected Car Market Briefing July

37 About SBD Since 1995 we live, eat and breathe automotive We enable data-driven decisions We are here to help! Our Mission Our Intelligence & Insight Services Our Approach To be the world-leading knowledge partner for the automotive industry Model-level databases Technology forecasts Supplier intelligence Market regulations News analysis We are committed to adapting to our client s needs and always strive for the highest quality of service Our Expertise The largest team of in-car technology specialists recruited from over 10 OEMs & suppliers Our Evaluation Services Expert UX testing Consumer UX testing Iterative prototype evaluation KPI setting Our Offices SBD NA (Michigan, USA) SBD EU (Milton Keynes, UK) SBD Japan (Nagoya, Japan) Cyber security testing SBD India (Bangalore, India) Now Open Our Customers Our Strategy Services Your Contact Person 90% of OEMs 65% of Tier-1s 60% of Service Providers New market entry support RFP/RFQ management M&A due diligence Strategic workshops Lee Colman Head of Connected Car leecolman@sbd.co.uk +44 (0) Supplier positioning support

38 Agenda What is a connected car? Niche or mainstream? What is the car maker s motivation to connect cars? Which services do customers want? Connectivity an enabler to new mobility solutions Would a car maker give you access to vehicle data? Problems to overcome when data sharing Would you like to join a data sharing pilot? 57

39 What is a connected car? Cloud-Based Services Vehicle data Diagnostics Location Sensor status Requests for infotainment Where s the nearest Starbucks? Play Taylor Swift Infotainment Traffic Music POI search Control Engine start Door unlock 58

40 How is connectivity enabled? Cloud-Based Services Built-in OEM pays for data Brought-in Customer pays for data 59

41 What services are car makers offering? 60

42 What services are car makers offering? 61

43 The trend is towards embedded connectivity 62

44 More and more vehicles are being built with an on-board modem Source: SBD connected car forecast

45 Trending towards vehicle lifetime connectivity 64

46 Car companies want to harvest vehicle data Key objectives: CRM Warranty cost reduction Aftersales SMR revenues 65

47 What does the customer get in return for sharing their data? Answer: Connected services that customers say they need Source: SBD survey 2015, 1000 European buyers: what telematics services do you need? 66

48 The majority of customers want connectivity 57% say connectivity is a must have or big influence on car selection Source: SBD survey 2015, 1000 European buyers: How important are telematics services when choosing your car? 67

49 Connectivity use cases can evolve during ownership of the car 68

50 Digital key sharing Unnecessary for day-to-day use, but an important building block for a more flexible mobility experience 69

51 Car makers are investing in mobility experiments 70

52 Over the air updates Feature upgrades Cost avoidance 71

53 Which car makers are connectivity leaders?

54 Car makers are harvesting data that could be useful to 3 rd parties Odometer Usage patterns Vehicle health reporting Location Driving style 73

55 Vehicle Sensor & Diagnostics Data: For the OEM s eyes only? Could your business be improved by having access to vehicle data? Why should the OEMs be interested in sharing vehicle data with you? Isn t there a conflict of interest with some 3 rd Parties use cases? How will the customer s data privacy & security be ensured? Can a win-win arrangement be found? 74

56 Similar Motivation to Connect The OEM s Perspective Manage reliability: Gain better visibility of vehicle status & health Manage the customer relationship: Better view of driver s behaviour, habits & usage Maximise aftersales profitability: Make right-time offers for servicing, maintenance & repairs The Fleet/Lease Company s Perspective Manage reliability: Gain better visibility of vehicle status & health Manage the customer relationship: Better view of driver s behaviour, habits & usage Miminise SMR costs: Minimise servicing, maintenance & repair overheads But potential conflict of interest 75

57 Today s Situation Can Lead to Lose-Lose-Lose Car Maker Fleet/Lease Provider Driver Lease/fleet provider won t sign data collection terms Lost revenue opportunity from connected services Expense of installing aftermarket telematics solution Limited or no visibility of proprietary diagnostics data Limited or no access to OEM s connected services 76

58 What Might a Win-Win-Win Solution Deliver? Fair cost compensation to the OEM in return for non-discriminatory access to vehicle data Standardised data sets and formats for 3 rd parties to consume Mutual consent between parties on a use case by use case basis Data privacy & security solution designed for the owner s best interests as well as legislative compliance De-bundling of OEM aftersales SMR campaigns from connected services Driver gets full access to OEM s connected services 77

59 Car companies are interested in data deals with 3 rd parties European Car Manufacturers Association: Fair cost compensation to the OEM in return for non-discriminatory access to vehicle data 78

60 However, it s challenging to integrate to OEM s data interfaces They re very protective of their data Unique interface for each OEM

61 Some car makers are attempting to address the data exchange ecosystem problem

62 W3C Vehicle Group are working on standards

63 A common interface is needed for data exchange Car companies could adopt a common standard or an aggregator could step in

64 Interested in joining a data access pilot? SBD would like to facilitate a pilot scheme to prove the mutual benefit of data exchange Which car maker(s) would you want data from? What data do you need? Would you be willing to pay for data? Real-time or weekly delivery? Leecolman@sbd.co.uk 83