Foreword 15 Introduction 18. Chapter 1: Is Global Warming a Scientifically Proven Phenomenon?

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1 Contents Foreword 15 Introduction 18 Chapter 1: Is Global Warming a Scientifically Proven Phenomenon? Chapter Preface 23 Yes: Global Warming Is a Scientifically Proven Phenomenon There Is Overwhelming Scientific 26 Consensus That Global Warming Is Happening and Humans Are Causing It Union of Concerned Scientists Objections to taking action on climate change often point to scientific uncertainties about whether global warming is happening and whether it is caused by humans, but now there is broad agreement among scientists on both of these issues. Science societies, national science academies, researchers, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have issued statements and publications attesting to this consensus. The Fundamental Scientific Conclusions 32 About Global Warming Are Compelling Peter Gleick and 187 Other Members of the US National Academy of Sciences Science is never absolute, but the scientific evidence supporting global warming is as compelling as many other widely held theories, such as evolution, that are now accepted as fact. Nothing in the recent attacks on climate science changes the fundamental conclusions that the planet is warming due to human activities and causing rapid climate changes that threaten human beings and the natural ecosystems on which they depend. Cooling the Warming Debate 36 Richard A. Muller

2 Skepticism about global warming once seemed appropriate, given the many variables and possible biases in the system of collecting and analyzing temperature records. However, research conducted by the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) Project has shown that climate researchers did accurate work, that global warming is real, and that it can no longer be questioned. The CERN Study Does Not Disprove Human-Caused Global Warming Glenn Wright Global warming skeptics have trumpeted a 2011 experiment by a group of scientists at CERN, the Swiss research institute, as proof that global warming is not caused by humans. However, this experiment was designed merely to test whether cosmic rays striking the earth s atmosphere contribute to cloud formation; it did not and was never intended to produce evidence about the effect of cosmic rays on climate. New Research Suggests That Global Warming Will Still Be Dangerous, Though Not Extremely So Andrew Freedman Based on a 2011 study by researchers at Oregon State University, there may be less chance of extreme climate change than some climate models have predicted. Although some global warming skeptics suggest this means that climate concerns are overblown, climate scientists say this study is largely consistent with previous estimates and that global warming could still reach dangerous levels. No: Global Warming Is Not a Scientifically Proven Phenomenon The BEST Study Did Not Address Whether Humans Are Causing Global Warming Peter Ferrara

3 The BEST Project study, which was celebrated in the media as final proof of global warming, did not address the most important question whether human activities are causing this warming. Also, the BEST study was limited to land temperature data and other evidence, such as data from satellites and weather balloons, that show no recent warming in the earth s atmosphere. Thus, the theory of human-made global warming remains unproven. The BEST Study Hid the Critical Fact That Global Warming Has Stopped in Recent Years David Rose Although the BEST study was widely cited as final proof of global warming, one of the BEST researchers has claimed the project s own data shows instead that global warming has stopped and that there has been no increase in world temperatures since the late 1990s. The CERN Study Demonstrates That Nature, Not Humans, Controls the Earth s Temperatures Chriss W. Street A 2011 climate study by the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN) found that cosmic rays from the sun can contribute to cloud formations and that the sun in this way controls temperatures on earth. This study thus undermines the theory that humans are causing global warming and proves there is no reason to cut greenhouse gas emissions. The Science Shows There Will Be No Apocalyptic Global Warming Patrick Michaels Years of satellite temperature measurements show that the Arctic is warming but the Antarctic is cooling and that this disparity will produce much more moderate global warming than the United Nations has forecast for this century. Global warming, therefore, is unlikely to be as catastrophic as many commentators have suggested. Chapter 2: Are Global Warming Skeptics Motivated by Science? Chapter Preface

4 Yes: Global Warming Skeptics Are Motivated by Science The Number of Scientists Questioning Global Warming Is Growing Claude Allegre et al. A growing number of scientists and engineers do not believe that dramatic action is needed to stop global warming. One reason for doubt, for example, is that there has been no global warming for more than a decade. Even if global-warming forecasts are accurate, the best policy would be to allow for unimpeded economic growth for another fifty years. Global-Warming Science Is Merely a Working Hypothesis Gary M. Vasey Human-caused global warming is merely a scientific hypothesis that should remain open to revision as new evidence is revealed. Although climate changes are occurring, the earth s climate has always changed, suggesting a complex group of natural causes rather than merely human-made carbon dioxide. Unfortunately, climate science has become highly politicized, with each side in the debate seeking to discredit the other rather than adhering to the scientific method. Global-Warming Science Is New and Untested Evan Sayet Most people do not understand global warming science, but there are many good reasons to be skeptical about the claims put forth by global-warming alarmists. Some of these reasons are: that serious scientists question the theory, that climatology science is very new, and that climate models are based on data that cannot be verified. It is more likely that global warming is a cynical ruse designed to make money. The Scientific and Policy Debate About Global Warming Has Just Begun Karin McQuillan

5 Global warming became politicized early on, and the public has never been educated about how many scientists doubt the theory or the economic costs of reducing fossil fuel dependence. More and more scientists are challenging the so-called scientific consensus on global warming, however, so this may lead to more-truthful media coverage, better science, and a proper public debate about energy policy. No: Global Warming Skeptics Are Not Motivated by Science Scientists Who Deny Global Warming Rely on Falsehoods and Out-of-Date Research Joe Romm A 2012 Wall Street Journal article signed by sixteen scientists completely misrepresents climate science and contains only skeptics talking points and falsehoods. For example, it is untrue that global warming has stopped; in fact, the last ten years were the hottest on record. If the world takes no action on global warming as these scientists suggest, there will most certainly be higher levels of warming and catastrophic impacts. Global Warming Skeptics Are Motivated by Ideology, Not Science Phil Plait The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Project study was an independent study that confirmed what scientists have been saying for years that the earth has warmed about a degree and that it has gotten especially hot during the last decade. Yet this new study is unlikely to convince global-warming deniers because they are concerned about ideology, not facts. Skeptics Are Free-Market Fundamentalists Who Seek to Undermine Scientific Evidence of Global Warming Naomi Oreskes and Erik M. Conway As climate science and evidence of human involvement in climate change has strengthened, global-warming deniers have escalated their attacks on climate scientists, in some cases accusing them of criminal activity. This campaign is merely the latest version of a historic pattern by conservative free-market fundamentalists to deny and cause the public to doubt the seriousness of real environmental problems

6 The Fossil Fuel Industry Is Funding Global-Warming Denial Bill McKibben The virulent denial of global warming seen in the media and in politics is clearly funded by the fossil fuel industry. This industry is making record profits right now, and any efforts to reduce carbon emissions would destroy the industry and its shareholders, so it funds denialism and makes huge campaign contributions to prevent carbon regulation. Conservative Republicans Are in Denial About Global-Warming Science Michael Stafford The evidence supporting human-caused global warming is extensive and growing, and the scientific consensus is that it will have a very negative effect on earth and life on the planet unless action is taken soon. The radical right wing of the Republican Party is in denial about climate change, however, so there is an urgent moral duty for all people, especially conservatives, to speak out about this issue Chapter 3: What Are the Predicted Impacts of Global Warming? Chapter Preface 132 Many Climate Impacts Predicted by the 136 IPCC Are Already Happening National Aeronautics and Space Administration The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that global temperatures will rise between 2.5 and 10 degrees Fahrenheit during the next one hundred years and that this will have significant effects on the environment. Some of these effects are already being seen shrinking glaciers; shifting plant and animal ranges; loss of sea, river, and lake ice; rises in sea levels; and moreintense heat waves. Snow and Ice Are Decreasing in the 140 Northern Hemisphere at Twice the Rate Predicted by Climate Models Pete Spotts

7 Climate scientists have predicted that warmer temperatures would decrease snow and ice in the Northern Hemisphere and that the lack of snow and ice in turn would produce greater global warming. A 2011 study confirmed that this feedback mechanism is at work but found that the snow and ice cover had decreased at twice the rate forecasted by climate models. US Farmers Dodge the Impacts of Global Warming at Least for Now, Stanford Researcher Says Louis Bergeron Although the United States so far has not experienced any agricultural production problems as a result of climate changes, a 2011 study by Stanford University found that most major crop-producing countries have suffered from reduced wheat and corn yields due to global warming. As temperatures continue to rise, the United States will also be affected. Global Warming Is Increasing World Food Prices Damian Carrington New research has found that crop losses caused by global warming have hurt global food production and increased food prices by as much as 18.9 percent in recent decades. Long-term climate changes contributed to the decrease in food production, and short-term price hikes caused by extreme weather added to the problem. Global Warming Will Likely Cause Serious Human Health Effects Thilaka Ravi Research shows that global warming may cause many different threats to health and human life. For example, malaria and other tropical diseases may spread; heat waves may cause heat strokes and death; malnutrition may increase due to agricultural stresses; and warmer temperatures may exacerbate air and water pollutions effects on health. Global Warming Poses a Grave Threat to Wildlife E. Jean Brennan

8 Global warming is having significant effects on the natural world, and this is especially difficult for wildlife. In the Arctic, for example, polar bears are threatened by the loss of sea ice, while in the tropical oceans, coral reefs and invertebrate species are dying due to ocean warming and acidification. Indeed, declines in wildlife populations are occurring around the world as a result of a warming planet. Global Warming Could Create Security Challenges for the US Military Keith Randall The climate changes brought by global warming will create a host of security challenges for the US military, according to a 2011 report issued by the Natural Resources Council. Melting sea ice in the Arctic, for example, opens that region to more transportation, energy exploration, and natural-resource exploitation a scenario that could create conflicts among nations claiming those rights. The US military could also be called upon to respond to weather disasters around the globe caused by global warming. 162 Chapter 4: What Actions Should Be Taken to Address Global Warming? Chapter Preface 167 National and Subnational Efforts, Rather 170 than International Agreements, Are the Best Way to Address Global Warming Harald Heubaum, as told to Responding to Climate Change The Kyoto Protocol, an international treaty aimed at reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, which expires in 2012, is largely viewed as a failure. Even so, international efforts such as the Kyoto Protocol should not be scrapped but should be combined with national and subnational efforts such as fuel efficiency standards and renewable portfolio standards as the best way to address global warming. The World Should End Fossil Fuel 175 Subsidies to Achieve Emission Reductions Matthew Yglesias

9 A 2012 report by the International Energy Agency found that eliminating fossil fuel subsidies would go halfway toward reducing enough greenhouse gas emissions to prevent global warming from rising above two degrees Celsius considered the safe level. The biggest subsidies are in oil-producing countries, but the United States and developing countries like China, India, and Indonesia also have large subsidies. Efforts to Slow Global Warming Should Focus on Methane and Soot Instead of Carbon Dioxide R.P. Siegel Global-warming efforts to date have focused mostly on reducing carbon dioxide emissions, but NASA scientists say it might be more effective initially to reduce methane and soot. These pollutants could significantly reduce warming in the near term using existing technologies, such as capturing methane from landfills and modifying agricultural practices. Governments Must Support New Green Energy Technologies More Quickly Institution of Mechanical Engineers Technologies to reduce global warming such as wind, wave, solar, and others already have been proven, but their development is lagging due to the absence of government support. Governments must commit to reducing emissions by adopting and funding green policies that promote these technologies and improve energy efficiency on a global scale. Geoengineering Research Should Be Pursued as a Solution to Global Warming Dan Vergano Failed efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are leading to a push for research into geoengineering large-scale engineering projects to reduce sunlight or carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as a way to slow global warming. Proponents say this research should begin in earnest so that it is available when needed in the future, but critics note that this strategy poses risks to the environment and may have other unforeseen consequences. The World Should Not Waste Resources on Fighting Global Warming Richard S. Lindzen

10 The earth s climate is always in flux, and the contribution of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, by itself, does not create much global warming. Despite the alarmist predictions about climate change, the scientific evidence suggests that human-caused global warming has been greatly exaggerated, so it is important for leaders to resist the calls for massive carbon taxation schemes to regulate greenhouse gases. Only Immediate Action Will Keep Global 200 Warming Below Dangerous Levels Richard A. Kerr A new 2011 study examined various scenarios for cutting greenhouse gas emissions and found that only immediate and dramatic actions could keep global warming below two degrees Celsius considered to be a safe level. The only strategies that have a chance of success call for the widespread adoption of new types of energy such as biofuels and energy systems that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Organizations to Contact 202 Bibliography 207 Index 213