The Copenhagen property market Copenhagen International Property Summit. Presentation by Peter Winther, CEO & Partner, Sadolin & Albæk A/S

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1 The Copenhagen property market Copenhagen International Property Summit Presentation by Peter Winther, CEO & Partner, Sadolin & Albæk A/S 8 June 2015

2 2 Agenda Agenda Sadolin & Albæk Property value drivers Investment values and volumes Office market Retail market Residential market International investors in the Copenhagen region Current top picks What s next? Q&A

3 3 Sadolin & Albæk Sadolin & Albæk Independent commercial property agency and consultancy firm established in Offices in Copenhagen and Aarhus. Strategic alliance with JLL, one of the world s leading real estate services providers with more than 200 offices in 750 countries worldwide. Thanks to this alliance, we offer our clients a solid international platform. Best in class : In 2014 again named Best Danish real estate advisor and consultant overall by financial magazine Euromoney. The Real Estate Awards started back in 2005, and Sadolin & Albæk has been given top rankings in several categories every year since Membership of RICS, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, internationally acclaimed for its high valuation standards and practices. Sadolin & Albæk employs about 35 members of staff, offering a range of services in the following core business areas: Capital markets Qualified strategic advice on major property transactions. Analysis and research In-depth market research and substantiated property valuations. Commercial leasing Professional and dedicated commercial leasing. Corporate solutions Experience-based advice on optimising space utilisation. Based on solid market expertise and an outstandig database compiled over decades, the highly qualified team making up Sadolin & Albæk Capital Markets offers clients advisory services relating to the acquisition and divestment of property companies, single properties and property portfolios. Based on extensive market knowledge, solid practical experience and a keen analytical mindset, Sadolin & Albæk s dedicated team of analysts and valuers prepares thorough and well-documented market research and valuation reports. Our experienced and proactive leasing team handles commercial leasing exclusively, with particular focus on office and retail premises. The team has accumulated an extensive an unrivalled insight into the industry and specialist knowledge of the commecial letting market. Firmly anchored in the individual client s strategy and business objectives, Sadolin & Albæk Corporate Solutions (SACS) assists our clients in achieving optimum space-efficiency in their premises, whether leasehold or freehold.

4 4 Property value drivers Property value drivers Current and future net income estimates Required Rates of Return by investors

5 5 Property value drivers Property value drivers Occupational demand side GDP growth Employment growth Growth in private consumption Demographic growth Investment demand side High market transparency Low interest rates Low returns on other asset classes Availability and price of financing Occupational supply side Low current vacancy Low construction volume Few available development sites Investment supply side Availability of willing sellers Low construction volume Few available development sites

6 6 Investment values and volumes Property values are increasing Sadolin & Albæk commercial property price index (index 100 = Q3 1984) Nominal values Deflated values

7 7 Investment values and volumes Transaction volumes are increasing Transaction volumes, DKK bn Denmark Copenhagen area

8 8 Investment values and volumes Substantial international investment activity Breakdown of transaction volumes by investor origin Transaction volume, Domestic International 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

9 9 Investment values and volumes Yields are lower, but so are interest rates Property yields vs. 10-year Danish government bond yield 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% Prime Cph Office Yield 10-year Danish government bond yield Prime Cph High street Retail Yield 0.00%

10 10 Office market Office rents have stabilized Prime office rent, DKK per sqm p.a., exclusive of operating costs and taxes Prime office rent 1,900 1,850 1,800 1,750 1,700 1,650 1,600 1,550 1,500 1,

11 11 Office market Office vacancy is downtrending CBD office vacancy rate CBD Office vacancy 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

12 12 Retail market High street retail rents are booming Prime retail rent, DKK per sqm p.a., exclusive of operating costs and taxes Prime retail rent 24,000 23,000 22,000 21,000 20,000 19,000 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,

13 13 Retail market Retail vacancy is downtrending High-street retail vacancy rate CBD Retail vacancy 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0%

14 14 Residential market Apartment prices are increasing Apartment prices, DKK per sqm Apartment prices per sqm, City of Copenhagen

15 15 Residential market Resi yields hardening, but wider yield gap Prime residential yield vs. 10-year Danish government bond yield Residential properties 10-year Danish government bond yield 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 2.9% 1.00%

16 16 International investors in the Copenhagen region What happened to distressed property? Figures in DKK bn Distressed International investors Domestic investors Distressed

17 17 International investors in the Copenhagen region

18 18 International investors in the Copenhagen region Domestic and international ownership Residential Office Retail Domestic International

19 19 International investors in the Copenhagen region Investor origins - examples UK based Large operation in Copenhagen Majority of investors in Danish fund domestic, but also UK and Finnish investors Swedish based Majority of investors from the United States Residential US based Office Investors from more than 100 countries Copenhagen, Stockholm, and Finland based Investors from the Nordics, Europe and the United States Danish institutions form an important part of the investor base

20 20 International investors in the Copenhagen region Cash flow into Copenhagen properties Core Value add Opportunistic

21 21 International investors in the Copenhagen region What attracts core investors? Yield 4.0 Interest rate 2.0%, 50% LTV (1.0) Net income 3.0 Pre tax dividend yield 6.0 Assumed capital gain 2.0 Denmark Offers a Model Mortgage Market we ought to look to the Danish model, which has withstood many tests since it was brought into existence after the great fire of Copenhagen in It remains the best performing in Europe during the current crisis. Total return 8.0 George Soros, 2008

22 22 Current top picks New residential Core strategy Buy and hold Value add strategy Buy and privatize Opportunistic strategy Develop and privatize

23 23 Current top picks Old residential Value add strategy Modernize vacant units, escape the rent control system

24 24 Current top picks High street retail Core strategy Buy and hold Value add strategy Optimize retail units Renegotiate leases Convert upper floors to residential

25 25 Current top picks Value add and opportunistic offices Value add strategy Buy prime with vacancy and benefit from improvement in occupational demand Opportunistic strategy Develop new prime Redevelop secondary into residential

26 26 What s next? What s next? International investors are active in all segments and sectors A truly international market Higher transparency Stronger liquidity and higher turnover

27 27 Q&A Q&A

28 28 Contact information Contact information Peter Winther Partner, CEO, MRICS Mobile

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