AUTUMN Property Investor Confidence Index Nordic Region

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1 AUTUMN 2014 Property Investor Confidence Index Nordic Region

2 Summary 2 DECEMBER 2014 CONTENTS Introduction 4 Demand for Space 5-7 Yield Outlook Financing Possibilities 10 Acquisition/Disposal Plans 11 Value Development 12 AUTHOR Karin Witalis Head of Research The first edition of DTZ s Nordic Property Investor Confidence Index is now available, and this at a time when geopolitical tensions have escalated and the global recovery looks increasingly fragile. There are considerable growth differentials across the world s largest economies. More upbeat data for the US and the UK contrasts with a faltering Eurozone and a very mixed outlook in the emerging markets. For some parts of the world indicators of growth suggest recessionary or near-recessionary conditions. Although the Nordic economies are small and heavily exposed to the wider European and global economy, they are generally perceived as being relatively safe. Consequently we are witnessing an upswing in the transaction activity in the Nordic region. Domestic investors are still clearly overrepresented but international investors are beginning to show an renewed interest in the Nordic markets. However, so far they have only completed a limited number of deals. The Nordic property markets might appear as one single market for foreign investors. This view makes perfectly sense in a global or pan- European perspective, in which the Nordic markets show greater similarities than differences. However, when it comes to details and timing of investments it becomes increasingly clear that the Nordic markets differ from each other. In this edition of the DTZ s Nordic Property Investor Confidence Index we can conclude that the differences are greatest in terms of occupier demand, but there are also distinctions in respondents view of financing possibilities in the various countries and in terms of investors buying and selling plans. We do hope that you will find the report interesting and we wish to thank all respondents for participating in the survey. Kind Regards, Karin Witalis Head of Research DTZ Sweden

3 When it comes to details and timing of investments it becomes increasingly clear that the Nordic markets differ from each other Nordic Property Investor Confidence Index Q DTZ 3

4 Introduction ABOUT THE SURVEY Since 2008, DTZ in Sweden has conducted a quarterly survey, called the Property Investor Confidence Index, covering different aspects of the commercial property market in Sweden. Since 2013 a simliar survey called Forventningsanalyse is being produced by DTZ in Demark. This survey is conducted every six months. In the spring of 2014 DTZ decided to broaden its scope and produce investor surveys in additional Nordic markets and to compile a pan-nordic survey. This report summarises the results from the surveys that were conducted in Sweden, Finland, the Balic states and Denmark in September and October The questionnaires have been sent to property investors active in the Nordic countries, both domestic and international. The respondents represent a wide range of property investors including asset managers, institutional investors, listed and unlisted real estate funds and companies, as well as developers. GENERAL SENTIMENT OF THE MARKET The purpose of the survey have been to gather indicators of the market opinion rather than to produce scientifically proven data. This report contains compiled figures, results and conclusions from the latest survey. Answers from the survey questions are giving a good understanding of the general mood among property investors in the Nordic region and their view of the markets going forward. 4 DTZ Nordic Property Investor Confidence Index Q4 2014

5 Demand for Office Space SWEDEN: A PROSPEROUS VIEW OF OFFICE DEMAND In Sweden 43 percent of the respondents have a positive view of short term demand for office space. Only 3 percent of the respondents expect demand to worsen in the near term. The remaining 54 percent believe demand will stay unchanged in Q FINLAND: A GLOOMY VIEW OF OFFICE DEMAND In Finland not a single respondent think demand for office space will improve in the short term. Instead 38 percent expect demand to worsen next quarter and 62 percent think demand will remain unchanged. Figure 1 Demand for office space, Sweden Figure 2 Demand for office space, Finland 0% 43% 38% 54% 62% 3% BALTICS: A POSITIVE VIEW OF OFFICE DEMAND The situation in the Baltic states reminds of that in Sweden. 32 percent of the respondents think short term office demand will go up. 4 percent think demand will worsen and those with a neutral view represent 64 percent. DENMARK: OFFICE DEMAND LIKELY TO REMAIN STABLE In Denmark nearly three quarters of the respondents expect office demand to show little or no change in the near term. Those with a positive view of office demand now represent 20 percent. The remaining 7 percent expect demand to worsen. Figure 3 Figure 4 Demand for retail space, Baltics Demand for retail space, Denmark 20% 32% 7% 64% 4% 73% Nordic Property Investor Confidence Index Q DTZ 5

6 Demand for Retail Space SWEDEN: A BIT MORE NEGATIVE VIEW In Sweden the share of respondents with a positive view of retailer demand has remained stable at 26 percent this quarter, but the negative group has increased to 14 percent. Those with a neutral view represent 60 percent. FINLAND: 50 PERCENT HAVE A NEGATIVE VIEW In Finland half of the respondents think retailer demand will remain flat and the other half think retailer demand will deteriorate. No one think retailer demand will improve in the short term. Figure 5 Demand for retail space, Sweden Figure 6 Demand for retail space, Finland 0% 26% 50% 50% 60% 14% BALTICS: GOOD CONFIDENCE IN RETAILER DEMAND Confidence in retailer demand appears to be high in the Baltic states. 29 percent of the respondents think demand will improve and the other 71 percent think retailer demand will remain stable. No one expect demand to go down. Figure 7 DENMARK: A BIT MORE NEGATIVE VIEW OF RETAILER DEMAND In Denmark there is a fairly good balance between the positive and negative side in terms of retailer demand. 19 percent think demand will improve and 24 percent think it will come down. 57 percent have a neutral view. Figure 8 Demand for retail space, Baltics Demand for reail space, Denmark 19% 29% 71% 0% 57% 24% 6 DTZ Nordic Property Investor Confidence Index Q4 2014

7 Demand for Industrial Space SWEDEN: INDUSTRIAL DEMAND EXPECTED TO REMAIN FLAT In Sweden the outlook for occupier demand within the industrial sector is a bit subdued. The share of respondents with a positive view has come down to 15 percent and the negative group has edged up to 5 percent. Those with a neutral view represent 80 percent. FINLAND: MORE NEGATIVE THAN POSITIVE SIGNALS In Finland 22 percent of the respondents expect demand for industrial space to improve. A somewhat larger share, 30 percent, have a negative view. The remaining 48 percent expect industrial demand to stay unchanged in the near term. Figure 9 Figure 10 Demand for industrial space, Sweden 15% Demand for industrial space, Finland 22% 5% 48% 80% 30% BALTICS: EXPECTATIONS OF STRENGTHENING DEMAND Compared to the other Nordic countries prospects appear to be good for industrial demand in the Baltics. 35 percent of the respondents think industrial demand will improve. Only 5 percent expect demand to worsen. 60 percent have a neutral view. Figure 11 Demand for industrial space, Baltics DENMARK: WEAKENING DEMAND FOR INDUSTRIAL SPACE In Denmark nearly one third of the respondents think industrial demand is about to soften. 13 percent have a positive view and 58 percent think industrial demand will show small or little change in the near future. Figure 12 Demand for industrial space, Denmark 13% 35% 60% 58% 29% 5% Nordic Property Investor Confidence Index Q DTZ 7

8 Office Yield Coming Quarter SWEDEN: MORE OFFICE YIELD COMPRESSION TO COME This quarter, the group that expect office yields to compress in Sweden has expanded to 30 percent. The group that forecast yields to move out has remained stable at 3 percent. The most common view is that office yields should stay where they are in the short term. FINLAND: A BALANCED VIEW OF OFFICE YIELDS In Finland 68 percent of the respondents expect office yields to remain unchanged in the near term. 19 per cent think office yields will compress and 13 percent think they will move out. Figure 13 Figure 14 Office yield coming quarter, Sweden 3% Office yield coming quarter, Finland 13% 30% 19% 67% 68% Increase Declined Remain unchanged Increase Declined Remain unchanged BALTICS: OFFICE YIELDS THOUGHT TO REMAIN UNCHANGED In the Baltic countries the majority, 84 percent, think office yields will stay unchanged next quarter. The remaining 16 percent is split equally between those who think yields will come down and those who think yields will move out. DENMARK: OFFICE YIELDS LIKELY TO REMAIN STABLE The share of respondents with a neutral view of future office yields in Denmark account for 78 percent. 12 percent of the respondents expect yields to harden and 10 percent think they will soften. Figure 15 Figure 16 Office yield coming quarter, Baltics 8% 8% Office yield coming quarter, Denmark 10% 12% 84% 78% Increase Declined Remain unchanged Increase Declined Remain unchanged 8 DTZ Nordic Property Investor Confidence Index Q4 2014

9 Retail Yield Coming Quarter SWEDEN: RETAIL YIELDS LIKELY TO COME IN FURTHER The share of respondents that expect retail yields to compress represent 24 percent and those who forecast yields to move out 7 percent. The majority of investors are of the opinion that retail yields should remain stable over the quarter, and this group represent 69 percent. FINLAND: UPWARD PRESSURE ON RETAIL YIELDS The share of respondents who think Finnish retail yields will move out in the near term now stand at 33 percent. 13 percent expect yields to move the other direction and 54 percent expect retail yields to remain broadly stable. Figure 17 Retail yield coming quarter, Sweden 7% Figure 18 Retail yield coming quarter, Finland 24% 33% 54% 69% 13% Increase Decline Remain unchanged Increase Decline Remain unchanged BALTICS: STABLE RETAILER YIELDS IN THE NEAR TERM In the Baltic countries three quarters of the respondents expect retail yields to remain unchanged. 15 percent think retail yields will decline and 10 percent think they will move out. DENMARK: DIFFERENT PERCEPTIONS OF RETAIL YIELDS 60 percent of the respondents in Denmark think retail yields will remain unchanged next quarter. 21 percent think retail yields will move in and 19 percent believe they will move out. Figure 19 Figure 20 Retail yield coming quarter, Baltics 10% Retail yield coming quarter, Denmark 19% 15% 60% 21% 75% Increase Decline Remain unchanged Increase Decline Remain unchanged Nordic Property Investor Confidence Index Q DTZ 9

10 Financing Possibilities SWEDEN: POSITIVE BUT LESS UPBEAT VIEW OF FINANCIAL CONDITIONS This quarter 46 percent of the respondents believe financial conditions in Sweden will improve next quarter. Those who think conditions will remain unchanged represent 51 percent and 3 percent think we are heading for the worse. FINLAND: POSITIVE OUTLOOK FOR FINANCING In Finland 44 percent of the respondents think financing possibilities will improve and 53 percent think conditions will remain unchanged. Just as in Sweden 3 percent think financing will become more of a problem. Figure 21 Financing possibilities, Sweden Figure 22 Financing possibilities, Finland 51% 46% 53% 44% 3% 3% Improved conditions Worsened conditions Unchanged conditions Improved conditions Worsened conditions Unchanged conditions BALTICS: SOME CLOUDS ON THE HORIZON The share of respondents with a positive or neutral view of future financing possibilities represent 84 percent in the Baltics. 16 percent think financial conditions will get worse. DENMARK: FINANCIAL CONDITIONS SET TO IMPROVE Only 2 percent of the respondents in Denmark think finacial conditions will worsen. The remaining 98 percent is split almost evenly between the positive and the neutral side. Figure 23 Financing possibilities, Baltics Figure 24 Financing possibilities, Denmark 36% 48% 50% 48% 16% 2% Improved conditions Worsened conditions Unchanged conditions Improved conditions Worsened conditions Unchanged conditions 10 DTZ Nordic Property Investor Confidence Index Q4 2014

11 Acquisition/Disposal Plans SWEDEN: INVESTORS REMAIN IN SPENDING MOOD In terms of transaction intentions in Sweden the share of investors planning to downsize their portfolios has gone from 13 to 12 percent. Those planning to expand their property holdings have remained stable at 46 percent. The remaining 42 percent are planning to be as active buying as selling. FINLAND: A PREDOMINANCE OF BUYERS In Finland 26 percent of the respondents intend to be net sellers next quarter while 48 percent plan to be net buyers. The other 26 percent plan to buy and sell just as much. Figure 25 Figure 26 Acquisition/Disposal plans, Sweden 12% Acquisition/Disposal plans, Finland 26% 46% 48% 42% 26% Decrease: more disposal than acquisition Stable: as much disposal as acquisition Increase: more acquisition than disposal Decrease: more disposal than acquisition Stable: as much disposal as acquisition Increase: more acquisition than disposal BALTICS: BOTH SELLERS AND BUYERS IN THE MARKET In the Baltics 24 percent plan to be net buyers and an equal share plan to be net sellers. The remaining 52 percent intend to be balanced in terms of buying and selling. Figure 27 Acquisition/Disposal plans, Baltics 24% 24% 52% Decrease: more disposal than acquisition Stable: as much disposal as acquisition Increase: more acquisition than disposal Nordic Property Investor Confidence Index Q DTZ 11

12 Value of Respondents Portfolios SWEDEN: A PROSPEROUS VIEW OF VALUE DEVELOPMENT In Sweden 74 percent of the respondents expect the value of their portfolio to increase and 26 percent think values will remain unchanged. None of the respondents expect the value of their portfolio to go down. FINLAND: CONFIDENCE IN VALUE GROWTH In Finland 37 percent of the respondents expect the value of their portfolio to grow and 9 percent think values will fall. The remaining 54 percent expect values to remain unchanged in the short term. Figure 28 Value development, Sweden Figure 29 Value development, Finland 26% 37% 0% 54% 74% 9% Improve Worsen Remain unchanged Improve Worsen Remain unchanged BALTICS: STRONG EXPECTATIONS OF RISING VALUES More than half of the respondents in the Baltic countries expect the value of their own portfolio to improve. The other half think values will remain unchanged. None of the respondents expect the value of their portfolio to go down. Figure 30 Value development, Baltics 48% 52% 0% Improve Worsen Remain unchanged 12 DTZ Nordic Property Investor Confidence Index Q4 2014

13 ABOUT DTZ DTZ is one of the world s largest property services firms, encompassing industry leading advisory, brokerage and management solutions to occupiers and investors worldwide. Our full service offering is provided through 209 offices in 52 countries and delivered with exceptional service quality. Our clients now benefit from a global platform which extends throughout Europe, the Middle East, Asia Pacific and the Americas. DTZ is the first global property adviser to be ISO certified in Sweden. Disclaimer and confidentiality clause This report should not be relied upon as a basis for entering into transactions without seeking specific, qualified, professional advice. Whilst facts have been rigorously checked, DTZ can take no responsibility for any damage or loss suffered as a result of any inadvertent inaccuracy within this report. Information contained herein should not, in whole or part, be published, reproduced or referred to without prior approval. Any such reproduction should be credited to DTZ. Nordic Property Investor Confidence Index Q DTZ 13

14 CONTACTS Agneta Jacobsson Managing Director Phone: Robert Göthe Head of Capital Markets Nordic & Baltics Phone: Karin Witalis Head of Research, Sweden Phone: Tambet Tiits Managing Director, DTZ Baltics Phone: Mikkel Scheel Associate Partner, DTZ Denmark Phone: Ville Suominen Valuation & Market Analyst, DTZ Finland Phone: FOLLOW US ON: This document is only electronically distributed. DTZ December 2014

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