NUCLEAR POWER AND ENERGY NEEDS OF GREECE

Transcription

1 NUCLEAR POWER AND ENERGY NEEDS OF GREECE Presented at The Nuclear option for SE Europe A Workshop Organized by the Institute of Energy for South East Europe (IENE) By Dr. Ioannis A. Papazoglou Institute of Nuclear Energy-RadiationProtection National Centre for Scientific Research «DEMOKRITOS» Sofia, May 19, 2009 The Nuclear Option for SE Europe MAY

2 OUTLINE DEMAND OF ELECTRIC ENERGY AVAILABLE ENERGY SOURCES EVALUATION CRITERIA PROGRAMME FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NECESSARY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR THE INTRODUCTION OF NUCLEAR POWER IN GREECE The Nuclear Option for SE Europe MAY

3 ELECTRICITY DEMAND ΖΗΤΗΣΗ ΗΛΕΚΤΡΙΚΗΣ ΕΝΕΡΓΕΙΑΣ ΖΗΤΗΣΗ (TWh) % MEAN 50% 5% ΕΤΟΣ The Nuclear Option for SE Europe MAY

4 DEFICIT IN THE SUPPLY OF ELECTRIC ENERGY to be supplied by New Installed Capacity (based on the existing Power Plants in 2008) ΕΛΛΕΙΜΑ ΣΤΗΝ ΠΡΟΣΦΟΡΑ ΗΛΕΚΤΡΙΚΗΣ ΕΝΕΡΓΕΙΑΣ (ΖΗΤΗΣΗ - ΠΑΡΓΩΓΗ ΑΠΌ ΕΓΚΑΤΑΣΤΕΙΜΕΝΗ ΙΣΧΥ ΤΟΥ 2008) ΤΟ ΟΠΟΙΟ ΠΡΕΠΕΙ ΝΑ ΚΑΛΥΦΘΕΙ ΑΠΌ ΝΕΕΣ ΜΟΝΑΔΕΣ ΠΑΡΑΓΩΓΗΣ ΣΥΜΠΕΡΙΛΑΝΟΜΕΝΩΝ ΚΑΙΤΩΝ ΑΠΕ ΕΝΕΡΓΕΙΑ (TWh) % MEAN 50% 5% ΕΤΟΣ The Nuclear Option for SE Europe MAY

5 ELECTRIC POWER FROM NEW INSTALLED CAPACITY (beyond existing Power Plants) ΗΛΕΚΤΡΙΚΗ ΕΝΕΡΓΕΙΑ ΑΠΟ ΝΕΑ ΕΓΚΑΤΕΣΤΗΜΕΝΗ ΙΣΧΥ ΕΝΕΡΓΕΙΑ (TWh) ΕΤΟΣ ΑΙΟΛΙΚΗ ΦΩΤΟΒΟΛΤΑΙΚΑ ΦΥΣΙΚΟ ΑΕΡΙΟ ΑΝΘΡΑΚΑΣ The Nuclear Option for SE Europe MAY

6 DEFICIT BEYOND RES ΕΛΛΕΙΜΑ ΣΤΗΝ ΗΛΕΚΤΡΟΚΗΣ ΕΝΕΡΓΕΙΑΣ ΠΕΡΑΝ ΑΠΌ ΑΥΤΌ ΠΟΥ ΚΑΛΥΠΤΟΥΝ ΟΙ ΑΠΕ ΕΝΕΡΓΕΙΑ (TWh) % 50% 95% ΕΤΟΣ The Nuclear Option for SE Europe MAY

7 EVALUATION CRITERIA FOR ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCES ECONOMICS HEALTH IMPACT (NORMAL AND ACCIDENTS) ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT RELIABILITY OF FUEL SUPPLY OTHER The Nuclear Option for SE Europe MAY

8 COST COMPONENTS 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% ΠΥΡΗΝΙΚΑ ΑΝΘΡΑΚΑΣ ΦΥΣ. ΑΕΡΙΟ ΚΕΦΑΛ. ΛΕΙΤ.& ΣΥΝΤ. ΚΑΥΣΙΜΟ The Nuclear Option for SE Europe MAY

9 COST US$/MWh ΦΩΤΟΒΟΛΤΑΙΚΑ 188 ΑΙΟΛΙΚΑ-ΘΑΛΑΣΣΙΑ ΑΙΟΛΙΚΑ-ΞΗΡΑ ΥΔΡΟΗΛΕΚΤΡΙΚΑ ΠΕΤΡΕΛΑΙΟ ΦΥΣΙΚΟ ΑΕΡΙΟ ΑΝΘΡΑΚΑΣ ΠΥΡΗΝΙΚΑ IAEA The Nuclear Option for SE Europe MAY

10 HEALTH IMPACT On a world-wise scale the alternative energy sources will be evaluated over the complete life cycle of the fuel and the necessary power generating units. Mining Conversion and transportation, Production of Electric Energy, Waste /Final Disposal. The Nuclear Option for SE Europe MAY

11 Health Impact Coal Occupational Accidents during Plant Construction Accidents during transportation Atmospheric Pollution SO 2, NOx, particles (depend on the population distribution around the station and meteorology of the site) The Nuclear Option for SE Europe MAY

12 Nuclear HEALTH IMPACT Occupational Accidents during Plant Construction Accidents during transportation Exposure to ionizing radiation during normal operation (mainly for the plant personnel) Exposure to ionizing radiation following a major accident (depends on the population distribution around the plant site and meteorology) Exposure during the processing and final disposal of the radioactive waste (without fuel reprocessing and use of Pu the long term risk is rather small) (NOT APPLICABLE TO GREECE) The Nuclear Option for SE Europe MAY

13 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT On a world-wise scale the alternative energy sources will be evaluated over the complete life cycle of the fuel and the necessary power generating units. Mining Conversion and transportation, Production of Electric Energy, Waste /Final Disposal. The Nuclear Option for SE Europe MAY

14 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT Coal Large quantities of Heat added to the environment (x1.5) Local importance. Atmospheric Pollution (e.g. SO 2 - Acid rain) Global Warming - CO 2 The Nuclear Option for SE Europe MAY

15 ΕΚΠΟΜΠΕΣ ΑΕΡΙΩΝ ΘΕΡΜΟΚΗΠΙΟΥ gc eq /KWh ΛΙΓΝΙΤΗΣ ΑΝΘΡΑΚΑΣ ΠΕΤΡΕΛΑΙΟ ΦΥΣΙΚΟ ΑΕΡΙΟ ΦΩΤΟΒΟΛΤΑΙΚΑ ΥΔΡΟΗΛΕΚΤΡΙΚΑ ΒΙΟΜΑΖΑ ΑΙΟΛΙΚΑ ΠΥΡΗΝΙΚΑ The Nuclear Option for SE Europe MAY

16 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT Nuclear Large quantities of Heat added to the environment (x2) Local importance. Radioactive pollution during normal operation practically negligible Disposal of nuclear Waste (Fuel and Power Station) The Nuclear Option for SE Europe MAY

17 NUCLEAR WASTE IRRADIATED FUEL & Plant Material Low or middle radioactivity and half life less than 30 years 90 % Low or middle radioactivity and half life more than 30 years 9.5 % High radioactivity and half life more than 30 years 0.5 % SMALL VOLUME Total volume of the lifetime fuel waste for a 1000ΜW Power station ~ SMALL APARTMENT HOUSE (20mx20mx6m) The Nuclear Option for SE Europe MAY

18 PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS ARE NOT THE RIGHT MEANS FOR THE PRODUCTION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS U-235 -Enrichment Pu-239- Natural uranium Fuel reprocessing COUNTRIES WITH NUCLEAR ENERGY PRODUCTION AND NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS (Germany, Switcher land, Spain, Belgium, The Netherlands, Romania, Bulgaria, Canada, Sweden, Finland and Japan) COUNTRIES WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND NO NUCLEAR ENERGY PRODUCTION (USA, RUSSIA, CHINA, FRANCE, U. KINGDOM, India, Pakistan, N. Korea (Israel?, S. Africa?) Fuel Reprocessing and Pu Recycling; The Nuclear Option for SE Europe MAY

19 TERRORISM Theft of Nuclear material and Weapon Construction highly improbable and not effective Sabotage to a NPP more credible Introduction of Nuclear Power Production does imply a hiegher level of policing The Nuclear Option for SE Europe MAY

20 RELIABILITY OF FUEL SUPPLY Nuclear fuel due to its high energy density content has extremely low volume and it is cheap. It is possible to buy and store fuel even for the whole life of the Nuclear Power Plant. Other types of energy sources need a continuous flow fuel (coal, oil, natural gas) The Nuclear Option for SE Europe MAY

21 DEVELOPMENT PHASES FOR NUCLEAR POWER INFRASTRUCTURE MILESTONE I Ready to make a knowledgeable decision on a Nuclear Power Programme MILESTONE II Ready to Invite Bids for the first NPP MILESTONE III Operating Licensing and Start of Operation Infrastructure Development Programme PHASE I CONSIDERATION BEFORE A DECISION TO LAUNCH A NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAMME IS TAKEN PHASE II PHASE II PREPARATORY WORK FOR THE CONSTRUCTION OF A NPP AFTER A POLICY DECISION HAS BEEN TAKEN PHASE III PHASE III ACTIVITIES TO IMPLEMENT ACTIVITIES THE TO FIRST IMPLEMENT NPP THE FIRST NPP MAINTENANCE AND CONTINUOUS INFRASTRUCTURE IMPROVEMENT Schedule 1 st NPP Preliminary FEASIBILITY STUDY Project Decision Making BUILDING PROCESS Construction 3-4 years 3-4 years 6-8 years COMMISSIONING Operation / Decommissioning [1] Milestones in the Development of a National Infrastructure for Nuclear Power IAEA Nuclear Energy Series No. NG-G-3.1 The Nuclear Option for SE Europe MAY

22 ISSUES MILESTONE I. MILESTONE II MILESTONE III National Position ΟΜΑΔΑ ΔΙΕΡΕΥΝΗΣΗΣ ΣΚΟΠΙΜΟΤΗΤΑΣ ΠΥΡΗΝΙΚΟΥ ΠΡΟΓΡΑΜΜΑΤΟΣ Management Funding & financing Legislative framework Regulatory framework Electrical grid Nuclear Safety Nuclear Fuel cycle Safeguards The Nuclear Option for SE Europe MAY

23 ISSUES MILESTONE I. MILESTONE II MILESTONE III Radiation Protection Human resources development Stakeholder involvement Site and supporting facilities Radioactive waste Environmental Protection Industrial Involvement Emergency Planning Security and Physical Protection Procurement The Nuclear Option for SE Europe MAY

24 CONCLUSIONS Demand for Electric Energy in Greece, taking into consideration every possible and practical energy savings and/or substitution by other forms of energy (nonelectrical), as well as, the addition of new installed capacity from RES, Natural Gas and Coal will with a significant probability after 2021 and onwards present an annual deficit of about 7 Twh Production of this amount of energy requires 1000MW of new installed capacity with capacity factor 80%. This is equivalent to two (2) additional 600 MW coal power stations or one 1000MW Nuclear power station. It cannot be covered by imports. It is therefore likely (to a degree that cannot be ignored) that the electrical grid of Greece will need additional installed capacity beyond what it is presently planned. Consequently it is necessary to seriously explore the possibility of introducing in the Greek system Nuclear Power Stations to cover the electricity needs for the period beyond The Nuclear Option for SE Europe MAY

25 CONCLUSION A programme for introduction of nuclear energy for a country like Greece requires 12 to 16 years from point zero up to the commissioning of the first unit. The first 4 to 5 years of this period are required for preliminary activities that precede a decision for the adoption or the rejection of the nuclear option. For Greece the required cost for these preliminary actions. Is relatively extremely small (40-50 million Euro) in relation to the cost of the corresponding investment or the cost of the inability to cover the deficit in demand. Preliminary activities that will enable in 3-4 years Greece to make an informed decision on the introduction or not of the nuclear option should therefore be initiated immediately. The Nuclear Option for SE Europe MAY

26 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION The Nuclear Option for SE Europe MAY