Research Project: RheinBlick2050
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1 Research Project: RheinBlick25 1 st Rhine-Mekong Symposium Climate change and its influence on water and related secrs 8-9 May 214, Koblenz, Germany Eric Sprokkereef Secretariat CHR
2 Content 1. Goal, Motivation and Management 2. Approach 3. Main Findings 4. Conclusions and Outlook 1st Rhine-Mekong Symposium Climate change and its influence on water and related secrs 8-9 May 214 Slide 2
3 Goal Development of joint climate and discharge projections for the international Rhine River basin Assessment of future changes of hydrometeorological regimes, floods and droughts in the Rhine basin Meta project, based on existing ongoing projects, results and data of the partners
4 Motivation There are (going be) changes in the climate system of the Rhine River basin These changes have variable impacts Decision makers need adequate adaptation and mitigation strategies based on reliable information There is a need for common climate change and discharge projections CHR has a coordinating role in hydrological research
5 Consortium and relation other projects
6 Impact of climate change on hydrology Global emissions scenarios Global Climate modelling Regional Climate modelling Hydrological Modelling Analysis of Impacts Bias correction is needed
7 The modelling chain Multi-Model approach is a key concept for uncertainty assessment. Discharge diagnostics Average discharge MQ, MoMQ Low flow NM7Q, FDC_Q9 Three periods hydrol. year / summer / winter 8 gauging stations: Basel, Maxau, Worms, Kaub, Köln, Lobith, Raunheim, Trier Validation and reference datasets Evaluation is nevertheless a crucial step.
8 CC impacts Mean flow changes Modified discharge regimes throughout the basin MQ [m 3 /s], 3-year long-term monthly mean discharge, annual cycles, Nov-Oct Basel (Rhine) Trier (Moselle) Lobith (Rhine) Reference discharge, , HBV134 simulation with CHR_OBS forcing More rainfall in Wi Less snowcover / -srage Shift in regime Pluvialisation Westerly flow More rainfall in Wi Less rainfall in Su Combined effects Clear change signal 8
9 Projections and scenarios of low flow NM7Q (Multi-annual mean of lowest 7 day mean discharge per season) Basel Maxau Worms Kaub Köln Lobith Raunheim Trier Basel Maxau Worms Kaub Köln Lobith Raunheim Trier Winter: increasing tendencies for near / far future (% 15%) Summer: no tendency in near future; decrease of 1% 3% in far future
10 Summary and conclusions An ensemble of 2 bias corrected projections of future climate has been selected for assessment of mean and low flow changes (221-25; 17 for far future) A simple bias correction method and with a semi-distributive hydrological model yield reasonable results for mean and low flow analyses. A transparent rule for definition of scenarios has been proposed. Winter MQ is projected increase in near and far future (% +25% and +5% +4%, respectively). Summer MQ shows no tendency in near future and a decrease of 5% 3% in far future "Pluvialisation" of discharge regime projected for far future: Decrease of seasonality in nival regimes. Increase in pluvial/combined regimes. Winter NM7Q is projected increase in near / far future (% 15%) Summer NM7Q shows no tendency in near future and decrease of 1% 3% in far future
11 Outlook The lessons learned can be taken in account in upcoming work within CHR Overall framework can be used for further studies with extended modelling components Provision of ensemble projections rather than single solutions for stakeholders and impact scenario users No final answers and not the only solution of the climate problem 11
12 International Commission for the Hydrology of the Rhine Basin CHR Climate change related report PDFs via First CC impacts report Observed past changes Projected future changes RheinBlick25 Ocber 21 CHR report I-16 Grabs et al. (1996) CHR report I-22 Belz et al. (27) CHR report I-23 Görgen et al. (21) Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources management in the Rhine basin Das Abflussregime des Rheins und seiner Nebenflüsse im 2. Jahrhundert - Analyse, Veränderungen, Trends Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Discharge in the Rhine River Basin: Results of the RheinBlick25 project 12
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