Effects of salinity intrusion on agriculture and farmers livelihood in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta

Transcription

1 MEKONG DELTA DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE Effects of salinity intrusion on agriculture and farmers livelihood in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (page 32) Nguyen Thanh Binh International Young Scientists Conference on Integrated Research on Disaster Risk, Future Earth & Sustainability October 213, Taipei - Taiwan

2 Content 1. Background 2. Methodology 3. Salinity hazard exposure 4. Effects of salinity on agriculture and livelihoods 5. Future challenges 6. Conclusion

3 1.Background Vietnamese Mekong Delta at glance CHINA Mekong delta Area: 4,548 km 2 Population: 17.3 million 76% living in rural Poverty rate: 11.6% Agricultural sector contributes 4% GDP in the delta (GSO, 212)

4 Importance of agriculture in the Mekong delta Aquacultural production 72.8 Rice production 54.8 Population 19.7 Land area Vietnam Mekong Delta (Own figure based on GSO data 212)

5 Water management for agriculture Discharge rate (m3/s) salinity floods Rainfall (mm) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Discharge rate at Tan Chau Rainfall at Tra Vinh

6 Water management for agriculture Dyke buildings For agriculture

7 1 Rate of irrigated area (%) Vietnam Mekong Delta

8 Water management for agriculture Rice development in the Mekong Delta Planted area (million ha) area production import export Production (million tons) (Own figure based on GSO data)

9 Annually, about 1, ha of rice at risk to salinity Recently, the serious year was 211 How salinity intrusion expose? How the hazard affect agriculture, livelihoods What lessons learn from 211 salinity hazard?

10 2. Methodology

11 2. Methodology Secondary data Primary data KIP FGD 11

12 3. Salinity hazard exposure Maximum salinity concentration (g/l) at selected stations (Own figure based on data from Center of Hydrometeorology) 12

13 3. Salinity hazard exposure 25 salinity concentration (g/l) Periods March April May Salinity tend to increase P-value (t-test)

14 4. Effects of salinity on agriculture and livelihoods

15 Rice affected areas in Tra Vinh and maximum salinity level at Hung My station Yearly maximum salinity level (g/l) Rice affected areas (ha) (Based on data from DARD-TV and COH-TV)

16 Effects of 211 salinity on winter-spring rice crop in Tra Vinh affected areas (ha) households damaged from 3 to 7% above 7% planted (ha) (Based on data from Department of Agriculture and Rural Development)

17 Causal diagram for heavy damage of crops in 211 Heavy damages of crops Freshwater scarcity Expansion of planted areas High salinity concentration in canal systems Drought issues High market price of rice High salinity concentration in rivers Economic Farmers Leakage Sluice gate Hydrological Weather drivers perception problem operation conditions factors (Own survey in 211)

18 14 Average water level (cm) in January at Tan Chau station Hydrological and weather factors Average Rainfall (mm) in January at Tra Vinh station 8 Maximum salinity level (g/l) in January at Hung My station Average 211 Average 211

19 Leakages and gate operation Table: Maximum salinity levels in 211 in Tra Vinh Gate name Field side River side Nha Tho Can Chong

20 7 WS crop in Tra Vinh (1 ha) Economic and farmers perception Average of Vietnames rice export price (USD per ton)

21 ha Planted- 28 Planted- 211 Damaged- 211 ha Planted- 28 Planted- 211 Cang Long district Damaged- 211 ha Cau Ke district Planted- 28 Planted- 211 Tieu Can district Damaged- 211 ha Planted- 28 Planted- 211 Damaged- 211 Tra Vinh and Chau Thanh districts Salinity intrusion from the East Sea ha Planted- 28 Planted- 211 Tra Cu district Damaged- 211 ha Planted- 28 Planted- 211 Cau Ngang district Salinity intrusion from the East Sea Damaged- 211 Economic and farmers perception Duyen Hai district without WS planted area East Sea

22 5. Future challenges Climate change and sea level rise 85% in the Mekong Delta

23 Upstream development Not only hydropower dams but also irrigation and other uses (MRC, 21)

24 6. Conclusion Achievements Continue structural? Both? Structural strategies How Challenges Non-structural Social Economical Environmental strategies? Changes?

25 Thanks!