How To Study The Environment In Northern England

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1 The Russian contribution to implementation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative A.S.Isaev, V.M.Kotlyakov, A.G.Georgiadi, E.P.Gordov

2 Since the end of the 1980s the beginning of the 1990s the international cooperation and integration in the sphere of investigations of the environment on the territory of Northern Eurasia has been developing with more and more growing interest. One of the effective directions of international cooperation consists in organization of regional projects based on use of a large volume of data already available, use of new methodical approaches, new types of information and technologies.

3 It is enough to mention such regional programs as -The KUREX-1988 and KUREX-1991 (KUREX-FIFE) international experiments, -The Siberian regional project of the Global Energy Water Cycle Experiment GEWEX of the World Climate Research Program WCRP -GEWEX Asian Monsoon Experiment GAME-SIBERIA

4 The Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative NEESPI put forward in 2001 by NASA and RAS certainly became an important stage of further development of efforts of Russian and foreign specialists representing international research structures.

5 NEESPI GAME/Siberia KUREX SIBERIA

6 Rank of complexity of scientific fields and objectives Level of scientific background (scientific plan) NEESPI (potentially) GAME/Siberia KUREX Rank of spatial scale

7 The NEESPI scientific plan includes three main parts. 1. Role of Northern Eurasia in global processes with emphasis on present-day and expected global changes. 2. Impact of global changes on processes and natural-territorial complexes in Northern Eurasia. 3. Present-day and expected socio-economic transformations in the region (including the ones connected with global changes) and their impact on its environment.

8 NEESPI related studies in the Russian Academy of Sciences funded through existing and newly organized programs of -The Presidium of RAS, -Departments of RAS and -Regional Branches of RAS Now the Siberian Branch of RAS joins this program actively. An important role belongs also to bilateral and multilateral projects, in which Russian specialists participate and which are implemented with support of international and national funds of a number of other countries.

9 The main purpose of the Russian program is to study the state and dynamics of surface ecosystems and their components in the conditions of climate and socioeconomic changes. In the program special attention is paid to terrestrial ecosystems, cold regions processes and the hydrological component of the environment etc.

10 General coordination of the whole work on the program is fulfilled by the Research-Coordination Council the chairman - academician A.S.Isaev, deputy chairman - academician V.M.Kotlyakov, scientific secretary - A.G.Georgiadi

11 Center on Problems of Ecology and Productivity of Forest RAS, Moscow Institute of Geography RAS, Moscow Institute of Space Research RAS, Moscow Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS, Moscow Institute of Water Problems RAS, Moscow Institute of Forest SB of RAS, Krasnoyarsk Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB of RAS, Tomsk Permafrost Institute SB RAS, Yakutsk Institute of Geography SB of RAS, Irkutsk Institute of Geography FEB of RAS, Vladivostok

12 The main expected results of the Russian program The improved system of knowledge about modern changes of terrestrial ecosystems and their components. System of methods of monitoring condition of terrestrial ecosystems and their components with wide use of the methods based on the satellite information. Methods of long-term integrated scenario forecasts of changes of components of environment caused by changes of global climate and socio-economic changes. Long-term scenario forecasts for selected components of environment and estimation of degree of uncertainty of forecasts.

13 Terrestrial ecosystems studies Program of the Presidium of RAS (headed by academician A.S. Isaev) State and resources-ecological potential of Northern Eurasia s terrestrial ecosystems under global changes Main directions: Methodology of monitoring large-scale changes in Northern Eurasia s terrestrial ecosystems. Modeling of production processes in terrestrial ecosystems. Biogeochemical cycles in Northern Eurasia s terrestrial ecosystems. Methodology of assessment and preservation of forest ecosystems biodiversity. Mapping of Northern Eurasia s terrestrial ecosystems. Integrated databases on Northern Eurasia s terrestrial ecosystems including data on ground-based, aero and satellite observations. Long-term prognosis of natural and anthropogenic dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. Assessment of resource and ecological potential of forest ecosystems. Concept for preservation and sustainable management of Northern Eurasia s terrestrial ecosystems under global changes.

14 The base of monitoring is made by new daily product based on MODIS information (250 m resolution). Пространственное разрешение 250 м & Ежедневное глобальное покрытие

15 Ecosystem Disturbance: Russian Academy of Sciences considered examples Fires Timber harvest Insects outbreaks & Epidemics

16 Forest Change Analysis Russian Academy of Sciences Forest cover extent in the year 2000 Evergreen Needle-leaf forest based on the forest inventory (1990) Broadleaf deciduous forest replace the Evergreen Needle-leaf forest Not-inventoried forest and afforestated agricultural area (mainly broadleaf forest)

17 Russian Academy of Sciences Forests affected by fires in Yakutia 2000 г г г г.

18 Krasnoyarsk region Russian Academy of SciencesForest Disturbances by Insects in

19 Russian Academy of Sciences Forest Insects Damages detected with medium (TERRA-MODIS) and high MODIS (ASTER) resolution ASTER-VNIR

20 Russian Academy of Sciences Forest logging Illegal logging dynamic in Russia Number of events Volume, m Logging in Russia during (mln. m 3 )

21 DIRECTION: Forest biodiversity: historical reconstructions, modern succession mosaics, typological diversity, monitoring methods, sustainable management systems ensuring proper levels of biodiversity

22 Projects in progress: Biodiversity dynamics and responsiveness of forest ecosystems in European part of Russia at landscape level

23 Main tasks: Studies of biodiversity on different hierarchic levels Typological diversity Forest successions: factors, models

24 Main stages of demutation succession after the cuttings in Kostroma region Мелколиственные приспевающ и спелые насаждения Приспевающие ельники Мелколиственные приспевающие и спелые насаждения Вырубка через 3 года Свежая вырубка Изменение числа видов в ходе восстановительной сукцессии Sc Sb Sa Свежая вырубка 0 Вырубки Мелколиственные молодняки Мелколиственные приспевающие и спелые насаждения Приспевающие и спелые ельники Спелые ельники

25 Digression succession of forests subjected to air pollution Industrial barrens Defoliating forests background

26 Modeling of forest dynamics under different forest practice Simulation scenarios have been compiled: b) initial state; c) natural development, d) legal clear cutting; e) legal selective cutting); f) illegal clear cutting.

27 Forest dynamics under different management regimes

28 Cold regions studies Program of Presidium of RAS (headed by academician V.M. Kotlyakov) Natural processes in polar areas of the Earth and their probable development the nearest decades. under the IPY program Main directions: Processes in atmosphere of polar regions. Glaciation and permafrost of polar regions in conditions of modern climate. Regime and dynamics of mountain glaciation and snow cover of Eurasia as the indicator of conditions of the natural environment and a climate. Terrestrial ecosystems of Arctic regions in conditions of changing climate and environment. Behaviour of radioactive and stable pollutants in various Arctic landscapes. Peoples and social-economic development of polar regions.

29 Cold regions studies Program 14 of RAS Division on Earth Sciences (headed by academician V.M. Kotlyakov) History of formation of Arctic Ocean BASIN and REGIME of modern natural processes in Arctic regions under the IPY program - Glaciers bedrock conditions and its status in the conditions of global warming. - Zonal-landscape regularities of recent river run-off changes in permafrost regions. - Spatial variability of parameters of the snow-ice phenomena and dynamics cryolithozone of Arctic regions in conditions of changing climate and economic estimation of damage caused by changes of climate and snow cover in Northern and Arctic regions of Russia. - Modern trends of Arctic biota changes in conditions of changing climate and environment. 8. Development of the Data Information System managed existing data including IGY data rescue and new IPY data.

30 Selected results of projects within Russian NEESPI Program

31 Main Direction of Hydrological Investigations: Role of natural and anthropogenic factors in recent and projected changes of water cycle. Comparison of river runoff in large river basins of Russia in warm climatic epochs in Past, Present and Future. Integrated long-term scenarios of river runoff changes in large river basins caused by global climate warming and socio-economic transformation and development.

32 Large River Basins of Russia investigated by Institute of Geography RAS Volga River Basin Lena River Basin Dnieper River Basin Don River Basin Boundary of Sporadic Permafrost Boundary of Continious Permafrost Selected Large Rivers of Russia

33 Research of landscape distinctions and their account at the forecast of probable changes of a hydrological cycle and a river runoff in permafrost regions (L.S. Kuchment) The physical based model was developed, allowing to take into account the basic features of hydrological processes of tundra permafrost watersheds. With the help of the developed model distinctions of components of water balance of a tundra watersheds were investigated. The role of blizzard transfer of snow to water balance of watershed is estimated. It is shown, that, depending on meteorological conditions, losses for snow sublimation due to blizzard process can make mm.

34 Zonal and landscape regularities of recent changes of river runoff in permafrost regions of Eastern Siberia (A.G. Georgiadi, E.A. Kashutina) Вилюй, Хатырык-Хомо, % Лена, Кюсюр, % Марха, Малыкай, % Алдан, Охотский Перевоз, % Лена, Солянка, % Лена, Крестовский, % Витим, Бодайбо, % Мая, Чабда, % Олёкма, Куду-куель, % It was revealed significant Spatial heterogeneities of recent changes of annual and seasonal river runoff, air temperature and atmospheric precipitation over Lena river basin 2nd Asia CliC Symposium, October 22-26, Lanzhou, China Year (Nov-Apr) (May-June) (July-October) Recent changes of annual and seasonal river runoff over Lena river basin

35 Projected river runoff changes in central, plain part of Lena river basin (A.G. Georgiadi, I.P. Milyukova) River runoff changes in the middle of XXI in comparing with present-day values Model Mean annual river runoff Presentday value, mm Projected deviations, mm/% Mean river runoff during May- June Presentday value, mm Projected deviations, mm/% 1 2 ECHAM4/O PY3 GFDL-R / / / /39

36 Resent changes of mountain glaciers of North-Eastern Russia M. Ananicheva The glacier areas of Suntar-Khayata Mountains were defined by the data of Arial-photo survey (AFS), conducted in Also area measurements, made by Institute of geography RAS expedition in 1970, were placed in the Inventory for a number of glaciers. We analyzed ΔS for those glaciers the area of whish were defined by AFS and in 1970 as a difference between these data and those obtained from Landsat images of 2003 by groups: morphological type of glaciers the aspect (the side of glacier facing)

37 Development and testing of new snow cover scheme. The Laboratory of Climatology, IG RAS New snow cover scheme has been combined with SPONSOR LSM. A multilayer snow scheme includes seasonal metamorphism of each layer according to heat balance at its boundaries, influence of wind and radiation, etc. Evaluation of a snow season takes 30 sec on a PC.

38 Local heat/water exchange modeling is essential for the climate change study. Snow water equivalent (kg/sq.m) at Valdai in (top) and (bottom) evaluated by SPONSOR local model and observed. Snow evolution is modeled OK, especially spring melting SWE obs SWE,rain=1.5C SWE,rain=0C SWE obs SWE,rain=1.5C SWE,rain=0C

39 Estimations of Expenses for snow removal from streets, conventional units the Laboratory of Climatology, IG RAS P = ( N + N / 2) S/ where N is number of snowfalls (> 5 mm and 2-5 mm), S is square of streets. Number of snowfalls with intensity 2-5 mm/day during winter: St. Petersburg Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky число снегопадов годы число снегопадов годы

40 Change of the snow removal expenses: Moscow (main factors increase of population and street length) Стоимость, у.е годы St.Petersburg (Main factor is climate change, even during the population increase in 1980s) Стоимость, у.е годы

41 Laboratory of evolutionary geography Institute of Geography RAS. The Leader prof. A.A.Velichko Reconstruction of a climate for glacial and interglacial epoch Pleistocene, both in space, and in time. Temperature changes for last 450 thousand years for Center of East European plain.

42 Maps of a condition of a vegetative cover of the Holocene optimum and Eemian Interglacial, Optimum of the Last Interglacial Vegetation Holocene Vegetation of Late Atlantic period (6,0-5,5 ky) Maps reflect on the one hand expansion of a forest belt and, in particular, zones broad leaves forest, and with another - a reduction of a zone of tundra during epoch of warming

43 Significant part of Russian program is formed by Program of Siberian Branch of RAS

44 First results of SIRS NEESPI megaproject on land atmosphere processes in Siberia E. Gordov (1,2), M. Kabanov (2), V. Lykosov (3) and E. Vaganov (4) (1) Siberian Center for Environmental research and Training, Tomsk, Russia, (2) Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS, Tomsk, Russia, (3) Institute for Numerical Mathematics RAS, Moscow, Russia (4) Institute of Forest SB RAS and Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk, Russia April 13-18, EGU General Assembly Vienna, Austria

45 Introduction Siberia Integrated Regional Study (SIRS, is (NEESPI) megaproject coordinating national and international activity in the region in line with Earth System Science Program (ESSP) approach aimed at investigation of environmental changes in Siberia in their interrelations with Climate Warming and Global Change. Approach adopted Clusterization/Coordination of national and international projects Development of information-computational infrastructure to support multidisciplinary investigations Educational activity Organizationally SIRS is supervised by the Russian National Committee for IGBP and managed by its Siberian Branch Recent results of investigations Zotino Tall Tower Observation Facility (ZOTTO); Great Vasyugan Bog; Development of new schemes of soil vegetation atmosphere transfer (SVATs) to represent land surface processes; and Key elements of the SIRS information-computational infrastructure

46 Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science (SB RAS) incorporates 74 research institutions in research centers (Novosibirsk, Tomsk, Krasnoyarsk, Irkutsk, Yakutsk, Ulan-Ude, Kemerovo, Tyumen, and Omsk) as well as in cities Barnaul, Chita, and Kyzyl.

47 SIRS Components Scientific: Clustering national (SB RAS, RAS, RFBR) and international projects on Siberia environment in line with SIRS objectives Infrastructural: Development of informational-computational infrastructure of integrated regional study of Siberia environment Organizational: Siberian Branch of Russian National Committee for IGBP is responsible for SIRS development Educational (capacity building): ENVIROMIS Multidisciplinary Conference with elements of YSS (Invited lectures embedded as well as thematic Workshops); CITES (Computational and Information Technologies for Environmental Sciences) YSS and Conference (Lecture courses, Training sessions as well as Invited lectures) Currently SIRS is one of the NEESPI Mega-projects.

48 Balance of Carbon and it s uncertainties ies -1-1 Fluxes in t C ha yr CO2 NPP 6±2 NEP 5±1 Wood Fires Litter 3±1 3±1 Harvest Mineralization 1,4±0,7 1,5±0,9 Organic layer O Soil C Flux Mineral soil A

49 Ecosystem mosaic

50 GIS of ZOTTO footprint

51 Operation ZOTTO is legally owned by the VN Sukachev Institute of Forest, Krasnojarsk. Scientifically it is lead by a consortium of core institutions, consisting of the Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, the Max-Planck-Institute for Chemistry, Mainz and the VN Sukachev Institute of Forest, Krasnojarsk. Day-to-day operations are administered by a project manager appointed by the VN Sukachev Institute of Forest. Scientifically, ZOTTO is supervised by a scientific steering committee. A data facility supports the exchange of measurements and auxiliary data among the different partners performing measurements at the tower. Formally, construction and transfer of funding for ZOTTO (tower infrastructure, core measurement equipment) is administered through the International Science and Technology Center (ISTC) as a partner project #2757.

52 Carbon fluxes in Siberia wetlands Results of long-term field observations performed at IMCES in bog ecosystems Empiric dependence of СО 2 emission on meteorological conditions: F= T ССО 2 where F is emission flux (mg/m 2 hour), С СО 2 is СО 2 concentration (ppm), Т is air temperature ( C). Positive carbon balance at GVB will be kept (forecast( made till 2080 with account for IPCC scenario) Map of Great Vasyugan Bog (peat deposits) and landscape profile with observation sites, and

53 METHODS OF STUDY Observation period: June September 2005, May September 2006, May August 2007; 8 days each month; 8 times per day (7:00, 10:00, 13:00, 16:00, 19:00, 22:00, 1:00, 4:00 local time) Measured parameters: Carbon dioxide emission rate; СO 2 concentration in air; Air temperature; Atmospheric pressure; Level of the water table; Temperature of peat deposit (2,5,10,15,25,40,60,80 cm) Equipment: automatic gauge of atmospheric pressure and air temperature - HOBO Onset corporation (USA); automatic station for temperature monitoring of soil MODUL-T, (Institute of Geology and Mineralogy SB RAS, Novosibirsk, Russia); The measurements of carbon dioxide emission were conducted by the chamber method, using optical gas-analyzer OPTOGAS (OPTEC, Russia).

54 Ural Ural Ural mountains mountains mountains Ural Ural Ural mountains mountains mountains Ural Ural Ural mountains mountains mountains New projects are appearing KARA SEA GROUPEMENT DE RECHERCHE INTERNATIONAL (GDRI) «CAR WET SIB» «Bio-Géo-Chimie du Carbone dans les zones humides de l Ouest de la Sibérie» CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE RAS, RFBR, TSU, Ugra SU, SCERT Ob' Sibirskiye Uvaly Khanty-Mansiysk Ob' Krasnoyarsk Irtysh Vasyugan bogs Tomsk Novosibirsk Ural Ural Ural Ural Ural Ural Ural Ural Ural mountains mountains mountains mountains mountains mountains mountains mountains mountains Salekhard Nadym Yenisey Taz Pur Region of study

55 Regional scale modeling and assessment Atmospheric modeling, e.g. using global climate model with improved spatial resolution in the region under consideration and non-hydrostatic mesoscale models: parameterization of mesoscale variability Catchment modeling, e.g. constructing models of river dynamics: parameterization of hydrological cycle Vegetation modeling, e.g. models of vegetation dynamics: parameterization of biogeochemical and hydrological cycles Soil (including permafrost) modeling, e.g. models of snow and frozen ground mechanics: parameterization of hydrological and biogeochemical cycles Coupled regional models Air and water quality modeling Statistical and dynamic downscaling (e.g. regional projections of global climate change patterns)

56 The presence of different types of surfaces (forests, lakes, hills, etc.) Thermal contrasts: forest bare soil, land sea urban heat islands, etc Local atmospheric circulations: breezes, urban breezes, slope winds

57 West Siberia, N, E, topography and inland waters, grid resolution 3.7 km

58 Wind velocity 150 Y, êì U, ì /ñ NEESPI -50 Science 0 Team 50 Meeting, X, êì

59 IC infrastructure developing in cooperation with European and American partners is aimed at support of multidisciplinary and distributed teams of specialists performing cooperative work with tools for exchange and sharing of data, models and knowledge optimizing the usage of information-computational resources, services and applications. Key elements: Web portals with thematic web sites providing an interactive access to data, models and tools: ATMOS ( and ) RISKS ( ENVIROMIS ( Each portal is provided with extensive tutorial and educational materials

60 Web based online system for analysis of climatic changes. Archives of meteostations data and Reanasysis in Siberia can be processed now (

61 Statistical analysis confirms significant increase of weekly and monthly mean near surface temperatures in Northern Eurasia during winter, spring and summer seasons. Also according NCEP/DOE AMIP II Reanalysis data vegetation period duration increases by 1 day a year for the central part of Eurasia. At the same time trend calculations ( and ) shows that number of frost days increase annually by up to 1 day for the central part of Eurasia.

62 SIRS Educational/capacity building ( ) IRS specifics: Multidisciplinarity; Necessity of information-computational infrastructure; Results should be delivered to regional decision makers. It requires special education/training program ENVIROMIS biannual Multidisciplinary Conference with elements of YSS (Invited lectures embedded as well as thematic Workshops); CITES (Computational and Information Technologies for Environmental Sciences) biannual YSS and Conference (Lecture courses, Training sessions as well as Invited lectures) 70-80/ year NIS YS are selected and supported (thanks INTAS and INCO EC)

63 List of selected books related to NEESPI activity published in Monitoring Russian forest biodiversity. Ed. by A.S. Isaev () Nauka, 452 pp. 2. Glaciations in North and Central Asia at present Time. Ed. By V.M. Kotlyakov (2007) Nauka, 482 pp. 3. Glaciations in North and Central Asia at near Past and coming Future. Ed. By V.M. Kotlyakov (2007) Nauka 3. Heat and Water Exchange of permafrost landscapes of Eastern Siberia and their factors. Ed. by A.G. Georgiadi and A.N. Zolotokrylin (2007), 576 pp.

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