Data Sources (Domestic)

Transcription

1 The Hot Stuff on Airline Recruiting 2008 ACI-NA Air Service Data & Planning Seminar ACI-NA Air Service Data & Planning Seminar January 24-25, 25, 2008, in New Orleans Overview of O&D 2008 and T-100 ACI-NA Air Service Data& Planning Seminar Data Sources (Domestic) Howard Mann Director, Policy & Market Analysis InterVISTAS-ga 2 Consulting Thursday, January 24, 2008 AIRPORTS COUNCIL INTERNATIONAL-NORTH AMERICA 1775 K Street, NW, Suite 500 Washington, DC 20006

2 Overview of Presentation

3 Domestic DB1B What Is It? A DOT database that is a holdover from the heavily regulated, pre-deregulation era Measures passenger trips from origin to destination, via one or more intermediate points if applicable 10% Sample Contains a wide variety of market data Passengers / Carrier (s) / Routings / Revenues - Fares / Yields calculated from above data points

4 Domestic DB1B Source / History Provided to the U.S. government by domestic carriers DB1B replaced the original DB1A in 1998, adding new information on marketing vs. operating carriers (reflecting the rise of code-sharing) Combined with the original DB1A, historical data collected by the DOT (and the CAB before that) goes back to the late 1960s

5 Strengths - Domestic DB1B Large Sample Size (10% sample) Wide variety of data Passengers / Carrier(s) / Routings / Fares / Yields / etc. Historical data going back to 1998 (with DB1A historical data starting back in the late 1960s) Most detailed airline traffic reporting in the world Good for airports and investors Not so good for airlines disclosure of competitive data

6 Weaknesses - Domestic DB1B Provided only quarterly, not monthly Not finely calibrated for seasonality analyses (i.e., 3 rd quarter includes 2 months in peak season plus 1 month in shoulder season) Smoothes out month-to-month changes in passengers and fares within a quarter Time lag of data At least 3-4 months old when released by DOT Contrasts with forecasts that can go months into the future Potential errors/late reporting/mis-reporting of data by carriers It s rare but it does occasionally happen Some small U.S. regional airlines are not required to report

7 Weaknesses - Domestic DB1B Can be less accurate in small markets Due to statistically small sample size Generally less than 10 passengers PDEW Examples: Rutland, VT / Jackson, TN / Tyler, TX / Inyokern, CA Think of O&D Data as Airport Traveled From Data. O&D Data Leakage will understate, or overstate, true traffic demand (i.e., one city s leakage OUT is another city s leakage IN) Boston Providence (Southwest effect) Providence Boston (JetBlue effect) Palm Springs Ontario/LAX Colorado Springs Denver Salem, OR Portland, OR Vancouver, BC Seattle

8 Domestic DB1B Local Traffic (PDX-WAS) Nonstop Portland Washington, DC (composite market)

9 Domestic DB1B Connecting Traffic (PDX WAS) MSP ORD DEN Portland DFW ATL Washington, DC (composite market)

10 Domestic DB1B Connecting At Hubs SEA SFO LAS SLC DEN MSP ORD DTW CVG EWR PHL IAD JFK LAX PHX MEM ATL CLT DFW IAH MIA

11 Domestic DB1B Connecting Traffic (via MSP) SEA BOS BOI PHL SFO Minneapolis/ St. Paul FLL

12 Domestic DB1B Online Connecting Traffic SEA EWR BOI PHL SFO Minneapolis/ St. Paul Online Single Connection FLL

13 Domestic DB1B Online Connecting at Non-Hubs DFW DCA PHX Dallas/Fort Worth Online Single Connection

14 Domestic DB1B Online Connecting Traffic PSC CHS YUM Salt Lake City Atlanta TLH Online Double Connection

15 Domestic DB1B Interline Connecting Traffic PDX DTW SMF JFK PHX Denver Interline Single Connection ATL

16 Domestic DB1B Interline Connecting Traffic OME This Doesn t Happen Often! ANC ORD SEA IAD Interline Double Connection

17 Domestic DB1B Connecting Traffic Triple Connections? Quadruple Connections? Extraordinarily Rare! These usually happen only during very heavy travel periods, such as major holidays.

18 O&D Traffic Analysis

19 Domestic DB1B Trend Analysis 350 By Market O&D Passengers (000) YE 6/30/05 YE 6/30/06 YE 6/30/07 (PDX - WAS)

20 Domestic DB1B Trend Analysis 140 By Composite Airport O&D Passengers (000) IAD DCA BWI 0 YE 6/30/05 YE 6/30/06 YE 6/30/07 (PDX - WAS)

21 Domestic DB1B Trend Analysis By Carrier O&D Annual Passengers (000) UA WN DL AA NW US HP AS F9 CO (PDX - WAS Year Ended 6/30/07)

22 Domestic DB1B Trend Analysis 30% By Carrier Year-Over-Year PAX Growth 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% WN AS US UA DL NW F9 AA CO (PDX - WAS Year Ended 6/30/07)

23 Domestic DB1B Trend Analysis 10% By Airport Year-Over-Year PAX Growth 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% DCA IAD BWI (PDX - WAS Year Ended 6/30/07)

24 Domestic DB1B Market Share Analysis By Carrier Passenger Market Share 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% UA WN DL AA NW US HP AS F9 CO (PDX - WAS Year Ended 6/30/07)

25 Domestic DB1B Market Share Analysis By Airport Passenger Market Share 38% 36% 34% 32% 30% 28% 26% 24% 22% 20% IAD DCA BWI (PDX - WAS Year Ended 6/30/07)

26 Domestic DB1B Airport O&D Market Share Carrier O&D Mkt Share CO, 3% US, 4% F9, 2% Other, 2% NW, 5% UA, 5% DL, 5% AA, 44% WN, 30% St. Louis

27 Domestic DB1B Initiated Trips Analysis Kansas City Washington DC Passengers Passengers initiated initiated from from MCI MCI YE 2Q 05 YE 2Q 06 YE 2Q 07 65% 62% 62% 53% 53% 53% 44% 41% 45% 57% 55% 55% 57% 58% 54% 57% 52% 52%

28 Proposed BTR-SEA Stimulation Rate Is Reasonable Year-Over-Year Stimulation Rate 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 200X = Year Route Started 63.5% % % % % Proposed SHV-SEA SAT-SEA LIT-SEA MSY-SEA BTR-SEA

29 O&D Data can be analyzed to highlight flows over hubs Helps analyze a new nonstop route to see if self-diversion is going to take place. Net traffic gain vs. New nonstop. Routing Prior to United Nonstop Market Entry DEN MSP MCI ORD STL MDW CVG BWI IAD DCA EWR Wild cards for self diversion discussion can be those airports with restricted market access LGA, DCA, ORD ABQ DFW IAH HOU ATL

30 Revenue O&D Analysis

31 Domestic DB1B O&D Revenue Share O&D Revenue Share - by Airport CO, 3% US, 5% F9, 2% Other, 3% UA, 6% NW, 6% AA, 46% DL, 7% WN, 22% St. Louis

32 Domestic DB1B Average Fare Comparison $180 Average Passenger Fare $170 $160 $150 $140 $130 $120 $110 $ Network 1 Network 2 LCC

33 The Carriers usually are looking for Net System Revenue Gain Carrier comparing two new cities for a new route to Chicago Carrier wants to maximize new revenue throughout its system BNA could have higher local O&D sector revenue to Chicago but with lower net system revenue contribution, the carrier may prefer to add the RDU route

34 Overview of T-100

35 T-100 Data Set What types of data are included in the T-100 How to Benchmark with T-100 data Using T-100 for Trend Analysis What to keep in mind when using T-100

36 T-100 Data is reported by the airlines to the United States Department of Transportation Also known as Form 41 Traffic, Form 41 Schedule T-100, and Airline Market and Segment Data Requirement for the Airlines to report T-100 data is found in 14 CFR 241 Must be reported by (1) U.S. carriers and (2) foreign carriers for routes involving at least one point in the United States Collected Monthly U.S. Major and National Airlines beginning in August 1981 (incorporating legacy T9S and ER586 databases) Foreign Flag Airlines beginning in July 1990 (T-100f) subject to a six-month delay Commuter Airlines beginning in October 2002 Cargo Airlines Charter Airlines

37 All data collected in the T-100 databank are related to single-plane flights

38 T-100 data are collected on four tables Domestic Segment traffic and capacity information for single-plane flights regardless of origin and destination of traffic Domestic Market local traffic on single-plane flights International Segment same as Domestic Segment for International flights International Market same as Domestic Market for International flights Remember T-100 is operating carrier and not marketing carrier

39 Operations and capacity are collected monthly by airline, aircraft type and city-pair Stage Length Departures scheduled Departures performed Available seats departed by class of service Cargo payload capacity

40 Traffic data is collected monthly by airline, aircraft type, and market; and include: Passengers transported by class of service Freight transported Mail transported

41 With these capacity and traffic data, more statistics can be calculated Revenue Passenger Miles/Revenue Ton Miles Available Seat Miles/Available Ton Miles Load factor Completion factor

42 T-100 data should be used to supplement other data sources during a presentation An effective presentation should describe sources of demand in an airport s market, i.e. potential customers for the target airline T-100 data should be used to show certain demand patterns in the market Interesting Facts should be presented in the context of the over-all demand picture rather than as stand-alone pieces

43 Examples of Graphs

44 Calculating Traffic Share and Capacity Share ONBOARD PASSENGER MARKET SHARE Year-ended September 30, 2007 US, 4% F9, 3% UA, 0% SEAT CAPACITY SHARE Year-ended September 30, 2007 US, 5% F9, 4% UA, 0% CO, 8% WN, 35% CO, 8% WN, 37% NW, 9% NW, 9% DL, 17% DL, 16% AA, 23% Little Rock AA, 22%

45 T-100 helps benchmark your airport s performance with competitors 100% LOAD FACTOR VERSUS PEERS Year-ended September 30, % 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% San Antonio Baton Rouge Little Rock Kansas City Amarillo Oklahoma City Airport Tulsa Austin Wichita

46 Load Factors must be checked against changes in capacity to tell an accurate story Comparison of Available Seats and Average Load Factors 25,000 84% 20,000 82% Available Seats 15,000 10,000 80% 78% 76% Load Factors 5,000 74% Available Seats LFs 72%

47 T-100 is not intended to be an O&D Data Source Only reliable in cases where the nonstop route has no connections beyond either end of the route

48 Identify a possible service deficiency by analyzing completion factors 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% COMPLETION FACTOR Mann InterContiNational Airport Year-ended September 30, % Hew a Bora AeroSvit Southern Winds Wardair East-West Airlines Jetsgo DanAir London TOA Domestic UTA Airline

49 T-100 data can be used to highlight cargo trends as well ONBOARD CARGO (Tons) Mann InterContiNational Airport Year-ended September 30, Year

50 T-100 also portrays if a market is seasonal or not 20,000 TOTAL PASSENGERS Mann InterContiNational Airport Year-ended September 30, ,000 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 January February March April May June July August September October November December Month

51 Short-comings of T-100 Data Only provides traffic and capacity for single-plane flights, does not provide origin and destination of traffic Does not include revenue information International data lags six months from when date occurred (Domestic lags three months) Commuter traffic history is short (since October 2002)

52 Conclusions Great for understanding capacity and traffic trends at your airport. Key to comparing your airport against others. Supplements other DOT sources for a comprehensive analysis Well respected, accepted by Airlines Captures most activity for passenger and cargo airlines for flights involving a U.S. airport Can be employed in a variety of analyses to advance arguments

53 Case Studies

54 Network Route 1: No Nonstop Service (Short Haul) Market Dynamics O&D Traffic to Hub Increasing Data O&D Loads on Current Services are High T-100 Traffic & Revenue show growth for new beyond markets O&D LCC presence in competing market O&D, T-100

55 Network Route 2: No Nonstop Service (Long Haul) Market Dynamics O&D Traffic to Increasing Data O&D Loads to connecting hubs vary T Stop service by competing LCCs shows no change in fares, traffic International market connections show increases O&D O&D

56 Network Route 3: New Frequencies Sought Market Dynamics O&D Traffic Increase New Hub connections show market growth Composite market has increased Network and LCC Presence Loads remain high on current services, however competing service shows lower loads spillage Data O&D O&D O&D T-100

57 LCC Route 1: No Nonstop Traffic (Short Haul) Market Dynamics O&D Traffic High Average Fare constant LCC already in market on a one stop basis Network carrier has high frequency and has a large share of O&D market, loads constant Data O&D O&D O&D O&D, T-100

58 LCC Route 2: No Nonstop Traffic (Long Haul) Market Dynamics No nonstop service in market, carriers in connect market all show O&D and revenue growing Load Factors on other long-haul services by same carrier high Revenue situation on Network carriers in 1-stop market show modest growth Change O&D T-100 O&D

59 LCC Route 3: New Focus City Access Market Dynamics Target Focus City has good market growth Load Factors on other new services remain high Competing Network carrier Focus City shows Higher Fares Competing Network carrier service also has stagnant market growth Change O&D T-100 O&D O&D

60 Wildcards Fleet Availability Corporate Reorganization Relationship with Regional Carriers Alliance Flows Gate Hubs (and spokes!) Incentives Airport Costs Competitive Reactions in your market or a totally different market

61 Conclusions What O&D/T-100 items should your ASD team look at to supplement your proposal? Look at all aspects of key O&D Traffic trends in your market and trends in competing markets Analyze T-100 loads in similar size markets and competing markets Identify revenue trends in your market and competing markets Understand revenue impact in similar markets where carrier has already started new service

62 Thank you!