Robb Kaczmarek NWS FAA Chicago Air Route ATC (Aurora)

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1 Mike Bardou NWS WFO Chicago (Romeoville) Robb Kaczmarek NWS FAA Chicago Air Route ATC (Aurora) Chicago Aviation Support National Weather Service 1

2 Chicago Aviation Support National Weather Service 2

3 Center Weather Service Units (CWSU) Chicago Aviation Support National Weather Service 3

4 19,562 total accidents 4,159 (21.3%) weather related Main cause = wind

5 Chicago Aviation Support National Weather Service ZAU- Aurora, Il 5

6 SEA FAA HAS TO MANAGE HIGH VOLUME AIPRORTS WHICH ACCOUNT FOR 80% OF U.S. AIR TRAVEL. PDX MSP BOS SFO SLC DEN DTW ORD/MDW CLE PIT JFK/LGA PHL/EWR BWI DCA/IAD STL CVG LAX LAS CLT SAN PHX MEM ATL DFW IAH TPA MCO FLL MIA HNL

7 SEA FAA HAS TO MANAGE HIGH VOLUME AIPRORTS WHICH ACCOUNT FOR 80% OF U.S. AIR TRAVEL. PDX SFO 60 SLC DEN 114 MSP DTW ORD/MDW 114 / 32 STL CVG CLE PIT BOS 40/64 JFK/LGA PHL/EWR BWI DCA/IAD LAX LAS CLT SAN PHX DFW MEM ATL 126 IAH TPA MCO FLL MIA HNL

8 TAKE A LOOK A SOME AIPPORT SPECIFICS STARTING WITH SFO SAN FRANCISCO Chicago Aviation Support National Weather Service 8

9 28R 28L 01L 01R TMU 2012 Federal Aviation Administration

10 TMU 2012 Federal Aviation Administration

11 # OF AIRCRAFT PER HOUR THAT AIRPORT CAN ACCEPT 60 AT SFO ON SUNNY DAY. TMU 2012 Federal Aviation Administration

12 ONCE CLOUDS <=3000 OR VIS <=5SM LOSE VISUAL APPROACHES # OF AIRCRAFT THE AIRPORT CAN LAND DROPS IN HALF FROM 60 TO 30. TMU 2012 Federal Aviation Administration

13 FAA HAS TO DO SOMETHING WITH ALL THE SCHEDULED AIRCRAFT TO LAND THAT EXCEED THE AIRPORT LANDING RATE OF 30.. GROUND STOPS, GROUND DELAY PROGRAM, INCREASED AIRBORNE SPACING MIT. TMU 2012 Federal Aviation Administration

14 TAKING A LOOK AT THE BIG CHICAGO AIRPORTS Chicago Aviation Support National Weather Service ZAU- Aurora, Il 14

15

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17 SIMUL 9 TO WEST FLOW AT ORD TMU 2012 Federal Aviation Administration

18 OHARE = WEST or EAST LANDING AIRPORT. (West Flow) = 114 AC/HR (EAST Flow) = AC/HR

19 OHARE = IF CANNOT LAND WEST or EAST BIG PROBLEMS. (West Flow) = 114 AC/HR (EAST Flow) = AC/HR South Flow Configuration (STRONG SOUTH WINDS = AC/HR

20 A Few ORD Weather Scenarios ** FAA NEEDS SEVERAL HOURS LEAD TIME (PLANNING TIME) ON CHANGING CEILINGS/VISIBILITY and WINDS Chicago Aviation Support National Weather Service ZAU- Aurora, Il 20

21 Current Time

22 **** NOW ORD HAS SIGNIFICANT SURPLUS AC Arrival rate due to DUE TO STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS

23 A QUICK LOOK AT MDW Chicago Aviation Support National Weather Service ZAU- Aurora, Il 23

24 FOUR POSSIBLE CONFIGURATIONS. MDW MAY ONLY LAND ONE ARRIVAL RUNWAY AT A TIME! AC PER HOUR 28-32

25

26 Midway favors Landing from the south ( 4R or 31C) BECAUSE THEY ARE DIRECT APPROACHES.

27 ** IF LANDING SOUTH. CEILINGS drop BELOW 1500 or VIS below 5SM MDW unable to make this circle approach.

28

29

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31 WEATHER DAY WHY THUNDERSTORM AVOIDANCE HAZARDS! TMU 2012 Federal Aviation Administration

32 Chicago Aviation Support National Weather Service ZAU- Aurora, Il 32

33 Downburst (Prescott Valley, AZ) 1999 Photo by Jacob Neider

34 Chicago Aviation Support National Weather Service 34

35 HEADWIND & LIFT Chicago Aviation Support National Weather Service 35

36 & DOWNWARD TAILWIND FORCE Chicago Aviation Support National Weather Service 36

37 Thunderstorm Hazards Hail Hailstones grow by collision with supercooled water drops with ice nuclei. FL500 *** UPDRAFT STRENGTH OF APPROX. 55MPH IS NEEDED TO SUSPEND 1 HAIL ALOFT. (SPEEDS CAN APPROACH/EXCEED 100MPH!) HAIL CAN BE LOFTED UP AND OUTSIDE, AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORM AS IN THE FOLLOWING PHOTO.

38 Thunderstorm 38

39 JET ROUTES FIXED Chicago Aviation Support National Weather Service 39

40 NORTH ZAU November 2009 Arrivals Federal Aviation Administration

41 ZAU November 2009 Arrivals and departures Federal Aviation Administration

42 TMU 2012 Federal Aviation Administration

43 ORD

44 ORD

45 ORD

46 ORD

47 ORD

48

49

50 SUNNY DAY SYNDROME... CHICAGO AIRPORTS & WEST Chicago Aviation Support National Weather Service ZAU- Aurora, Il 50

51 Chicago Aviation Support National Weather Service ZAU- Aurora, Il 51

52 Chicago Aviation Support National Weather Service ZAU- Aurora, Il 52

53

54

55 SUPERBOWL 2012 Chicago Aviation Support National Weather Service 55

56 Chicago Aviation Support National Weather Service ZAU- Aurora, Il 56

57 Chicago Aviation Support National Weather Service ZAU- Aurora, Il 57

58 TURBULENCE: NOT A FUNCTION OF STRENGTH OF JET STREAM, BUT RATHER A FUNCTION OF THE STRENGTH OF THE SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEARS ASSOCIATED. Chicago Aviation Support National Weather Service ZAU- Aurora, Il 58

59 ALL JETSTREAMS ARE NOT CREATED EQUAL ** TURBULENCE IS A FUNCTION OF THE SHEARS WITHIN THE JET NOT THE STRENGTH OF THE JET ** Chicago Aviation Support National Weather Service ZAU- Aurora, Il 59

60 ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDING VCNTY GRR INDICATING RATHER UNIFORM WINDS FL KT FL420 DOWN TO FL200 LITTLE TURB WITH GENERALLY SMOOTH ALTITUDES FL KT FL200 95KT Chicago Aviation Support National Weather Service ZAU- Aurora, Il 60

61 HERE IS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER JET BUT WITH MUCH STRONGER SHEARS. Chicago Aviation Support National Weather Service ZAU- Aurora, Il 61

62 MOD-SEV FL270-FL320 VCNTY MSN Chicago Aviation Support National Weather Service ZAU- Aurora, Il 62

63 Chicago Aviation Support National Weather Service 63

64 1) What percent of aircraft accidents are weather related? a) 10% b) 20% c) 60% d) 80% 2) What phase of flight do most aircraft accidents or injuries occur? a) Takeoff-climb b) Cruise c) Final approach-landing 3) What is the most important Impact to aircraft travel? a) Surface winds b) Aircraft Icing c) Thunderstorms d) All the above 4) What causes aircraft turbulence? a) Jet stream b) Contrails c) Mountains d) I don t know 5) What causes aircraft icing? a) Thunderstorms Chicago Aviation Support b) Snow accumulation on aircraft c) Super-cooled liquid freezing on aircraft National Weather Service ZAU- Aurora, Il 64

65 1) What percent of aircraft accidents are weather related? a) 10% b) 20% c) 60% d) 80% 2) What phase of flight do most aircraft accidents or injuries occur? a) Takeoff-climb b) Cruise c) Final approach-landing 3) What is the most important Impact to aircraft travel? a) Surface winds b) Aircraft Icing c) Thunderstorms d) All the above 4) What causes aircraft turbulence? a) Jet stream b) Contrails c) Mountains d) I don t know 5) What causes aircraft icing? a) Thunderstorms Chicago Aviation Support b) Snow accumulation on aircraft c) Super-cooled liquid freezing on aircraft National Weather Service ZAU- Aurora, Il 65

66 1) What percent of aircraft accidents are weather related? a) 10% b) 20% c) 60% d) 80% 2) What phase of flight do most aircraft accidents or injuries occur? a) Takeoff-climb b) Cruise c) Final approach-landing 3) What is the most important Impact to aircraft travel? a) Surface winds b) Aircraft Icing c) Thunderstorms d) All the above 4) What causes aircraft turbulence? a) Jet stream b) Contrails c) Mountains d) I don t know 5) What causes aircraft icing? a) Thunderstorms Chicago Aviation Support b) Snow accumulation on aircraft c) Super-cooled liquid freezing on aircraft National Weather Service ZAU- Aurora, Il 66

67 1) What percent of aircraft accidents are weather related? a) 10% b) 20% c) 60% d) 80% 2) What phase of flight do most aircraft accidents or injuries occur? a) Takeoff-climb b) Cruise c) Final approach-landing 3) What is the most important Impact to aircraft travel? a) Surface winds b) Aircraft Icing c) Thunderstorms d) All the above 4) What causes aircraft turbulence? a) Jet stream b) Contrails c) Mountains d) I don t know 5) What causes aircraft icing? a) Thunderstorms Chicago Aviation Support b) Snow accumulation on aircraft c) Super-cooled liquid freezing on aircraft National Weather Service ZAU- Aurora, Il 67

68 1) What percent of aircraft accidents are weather related? a) 10% b) 20% c) 60% d) 80% 2) What phase of flight do most aircraft accidents or injuries occur? a) Takeoff-climb b) Cruise c) Final approach-landing 3) What is the most important Impact to aircraft travel? a) Surface winds b) Aircraft Icing c) Thunderstorms d) All the above 4) What causes aircraft turbulence? a) Jet stream b) Contrails c) Mountains d) I don t know 5) What causes aircraft icing? a) Thunderstorms Chicago Aviation Support b) Snow accumulation on aircraft c) Super-cooled liquid freezing on aircraft National Weather Service ZAU- Aurora, Il 68

69 1) What percent of aircraft accidents are weather related? a) 10% b) 20% c) 60% d) 80% 2) What phase of flight do most aircraft accidents or injuries occur? a) Takeoff-climb b) Cruise c) Final approach-landing 3) What is the most important Impact to aircraft travel? a) Surface winds b) Aircraft Icing c) Thunderstorms d) All the above 4) What causes aircraft turbulence? a) Jet stream b) Contrails c) Mountains d) I don t know 5) What causes aircraft icing? a) Thunderstorms Chicago Aviation Support b) Snow accumulation on aircraft c) Super-cooled liquid freezing on aircraft National Weather Service ZAU- Aurora, Il 69

70 Chicago Aviation Support National Weather Service ZAU- Aurora, Il 70

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