Current fuel quality and vehicle emission standards - challenges and opportunities in Asia

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1 Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities Center Current fuel quality and vehicle emission standards - challenges and opportunities in Asia Glynda Bathan Policy and Partnership Manager Regional Workshop on Partnership for Clean Fuels and Vehicles for Regional Workshop on Partnership for Clean Fuels and Vehicles for East Asia

2 Outline Status in Asia I. Air Quality II. Transport III. Emissions from Transport Status of Vehicle Emission Standard Status of Fuel Quality Challenges and Opportunities 2

3 1a. Urban Air Pollution Trends in Asia Source: CAI-Asia, 2008 Aggregated Annual Ambient AQ Trends, μg/m 3 (1993 to 2007) 3

4 1b. Urban Air Pollution Status in Asia - PM Kanpur Lanzhou Lucknow PM 10 Levels in Asian Cities Agra Ahmedabad Fuzhou Guangzhou Guiyang Hong Kong Hyderabad Incheon(2007) Changchun Changsha Chengdu Chongqing Hangzhou Harbin Hefei Kunming Mumbai Nanchang Patna Seoul (2007) Shanghai Hohhot Jinan Nanjing Varanasi Jodhpur Beijing Dhaka Faridabad Kathmandu (2007) Kolkata New Delhi Pune Shenyang Solapur Tianjin Wuhan Xi'an Yinchuan Zhengzhou Xining Shijiazhuang Taiyuan Urumqi µg/m 3 Ba ngalore Bangkok (2007) Haikou Singapore Busan (2007) Chennai Colombo Ho Chi Minh Lhasa Nanning WHO (2005) PM 10 Guideline 20 µg/m 3

5 2. Increasing Motorization and Vehicle Growth total number of ve ehicles (in m illions) motorizat tion index ASEAN(Major Countries) CHINA INDIA OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Pacific Total Vehicles (in millions) Motorization Index (V/1000 P) Source: ADB, CAI-Asia, Segment Y Ltd., and IEA

6 3a. CO 2 Emissions in Asia Road Transport Vietnam Philippines Thailand sions (Mill lion Tons) CO 2 Emis 5000 Indonesia India 4000 China Srilanka 3000 Nepal Malaysia 2000 South Korea Bangladesh 1000 Singapore 0 Pakistan Years Source: ADB, CAI-Asia, and Segment Y Ltd

7 3b. PM Emissions in Asia Road Transport PM Emissions (1000 Tons ) Vietnam 400 Philippines 350 Thailand 300 Indonesia India 250 China Source: ADB, CAI-Asia, and Segment Y Ltd.

8 4. Emission Standards New Light-Duty Vehicles 8 Country European Union E1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6 Bangladesh a Euro 2 Bangladesh b Euro 1 Hong Kong, China Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 India c Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 India d E1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Indonesia Euro 2 Malaysia Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 4 Nepal Euro 1 Pakistan No conclusive information available Philippines Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 4 PRC a Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 PRC e Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Beijing only Singapore a Euro 1 Euro 2 Singapore b Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 4 Sri Lanka Euro 1 Euro 2 f South Korea Euro 4 Euro 5 Taipei, US Tier 1 US Tier 2 Bin 7 g Thailand Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Viet Nam Euro 2 Source: CAI-Asia. 2008, Emission standards for new vehicles (light duty). Available:

9 5. Fuel Quality Standards (levels of sulfur in diesel) Bangladesh 5000 Cambodia Hong Kong, a India (nationwide) India (metros) a 50 a Indonesia Japan b Malaysia c 500 d 50a Pakistan c Philippines PRC (nationwide) e,f & 500 PRC - Beijing Singapore South Korea (10) f Sri Lanka d 500 Ti Taipei, i Thailand Viet Nam European Union (10) f 10 United Statest Source: CAI-Asia, 2008 > 500 ppm < 50 ppm ppm

10 6. Rationale for Road Map for Cleaner Fuels and Vehicles in Asia Urban Air Quality continues to be an important problem and mobile sources are an important part of the problem Asian countries do not all have medium term fuel quality strategies Capacity to regulate fuels is under-developed in several countries, especially those which lack medium term strategies Link the expertise of oil industry to produce high quality transportation fuel to complement ongoing efforts by different stakeholders to improve air quality management in Asia

11 7. Challenges & Opportunities Institutions political will & commitment Stakeholders buy-in negative lobbying sometimes from local vehicle manufacturers Fuel subsidy Cost to refinery and cost to consumers Adulteration

12 8 a. Case of Philippines National EST Strategy Cluster 2: Strengthening th DOTC, DENR-EMB, EMB LGU, Roadside Roadside Air Quality MO, DOST-PNRI, etc. Pollution Monitoring and Assessment; Source: DOTC Traffic Noise Management; Vehicle Emission Control, Standards and Inspection & Maintenance; DENR-EMB, DOTC, LGU, DOLE-OSHC, etc. DOTC-LTO-LTFRB, DENR- EMB, DOF, BOI, DTI-BPS- BIS,TESDA, ECAP, MMASBA, UP-ME, DOE- OIMB, Public Transport Groups, etc. Cleaner Fuels DOE-OIMB, DTI-BPS, DOST- PCIERD, DOTC, DENR-EMB, DOE-EUMB, Public Transport Groups, etc.

13 8 b. Case of Philippines Vehicle standards 60 PM EMISSIONS (BAU) EURO IV in PM EMISSIONS (with PRE EURO EURO No improvement scenario) PM EM MISSIONS/YEA AR (000Tons) HCV LCV PC MC three MC two ISSIONS/YEAR (000Tons) PM EM HCV LCV PC MC three MC two Moving quickly from Pre-Euro to Euro-II has significantly reduced emissions. But government should leapfrog to Euro-IV and V as soon as possible. 13

14 9. Fuel Subsidy & Economic benefits of Clean Fuel Diesel/Gasoline Price (Ratio) November Bangladesh China India Indonesia Malaysia Nepal Pakistan Philippines Singapore Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam Government Subsidy ( in BILLION USD) Country (P) Bangladesh China 0.68 NA 1.79 India Indonesia Malaysia Nepal NA NA 0.30 Pakistan NA Philippines NA NA NA Singapore NA NA NA Sri Lanka Thailand NA NA NA Vietnam decouple fuel prices with politics fuel subsidies hamper introduction of clean fuels The economic benefits of an integrated system of clean fuels and vehicles far outweigh the costs. The estimated benefit cost ratios of these programs are 15:1 in the United States, and 20:1 in the PRC Source: Various,

15 10. Case of Indonesia - Fuel Quality Monitoring Report 2007 MOE carried out fuel quality monitoring in gasoline as well as diesel fuel from public gas stations in 30 cities. The gasoline fuel quality sold in Indonesia in 2007 shows an improvement. (average lead content monitored was g/l < 0.013g/l). For Diesel fuel quality, the average sulfur content is 2156 ppm > EURO 2 standard < national standard. Several cities with sulfur content above the required standards of 3500 ppm are Bandar Lampung (3950 ppm), Jayapura (3600 ppm), Manado (3775 ppm), etc. Source: Linda Krisnawati, Ministry of Environment, Indonesia, BAQ

16 11. Case of Thailand Diesel Project Intervention CNG Conversion of Buses Diesel Particle Filters Assumptions Pollutant Reduction Cost Tons/million USD Tons % BAU USD (million) (ration) 2000 Buses are converted % For all diesel vehicles; 90% reduction in direct PM emissions; including low sulfur diesel % Congestion Pricing Inspection and Maintainence & Preventive Maintainance Mass Rapid Transport Bus Rapid Transit 5% reduction in person VKT and 5% increase in VKT of bus 10% reduction in deterioration rates of emission factors & 25% reduction in Bus PM emissions 200 km of rail MRT ; 5% shift from auto to 3.5% MRT, 1% to Bus, 0.5% Walk 100 km of rail and 100 km of bus rapid transport; 5% shift to MRT and BRT;half from autos/taxis/buses % % % % Walking 1% shift in VKT from Cars and Buses % Traffic Management 1mph increase in average speed % Source: Adopted from Jitu Shah, World Bank, Bangkok, Thailand,

17 17 Sophie Punte, Executive Director Glynda Bathan, Policy & Partnerships Manager Bert Fabian, Transport Program Manager Sudhir Gota, Transport Specialist Unit 3510, 35 th Floor, Robinsons-Equitable Tower, ADB Avenue, Pasig City, Metro Manila, 1605 Philippines