Gábor Bálint, National Hydrological Forecasting Service
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1 Future EU Climate Change Policy - Challenges and Opportunities for New Member States and Candidate Countries Conference, Budapest, October 2007 WATER ISSUES From impact studies to adaptation Gábor Bálint, National Hydrological Forecasting Service Environmental Protection and Water Management Research Institute
2 Regional impact studies and adaptation strategies FLOODsite
3 CLimate ChAnge and Variability: Impact on Central and Eastern EuRope Coordinated by: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany Daniela Jacob Concerns mostly: Hungary, Rumania, Bulgaria Associated contributor: Slovak Technical University (Tisza Basin)
4 CLAVIER Study Regions hydrological/water management agricultural impact energy impact tourism impact
5 CLAVIER Hydrologic Study Regions
6 Water and water management SPACE and TIME distribution related CATCHMENT, RIVER BASIN linked Often transboundary: Danube, Elbe, Oder, Nieman, Daugava CROSS SECTORAL Urban development, agriculture, energy, transport UNCERTAINITY Inherent of modelling (Almost) no comprehensive regional hydrological impact studies available
7 Stationarity in annual characteristics? Nagy maros dis charge s átlag éves minim um éves m aximum Line áris (éves max im um) Lineáris (átlag) Lineáris (éves m inim um) víz hoz am (m 3/s ) é ve k
8 Changing hydrological regime? Unusual seasonal distribution (retreating glaciers?) Rapid depletion longer low-flow periods Faster propagation of flood waves Extreme floods Oder/Odra 1997 Elbe/Labe 1997, 2002, 2006 Danube: 1991, 2002, 2006 Tributaries: Morava/March 1997, 2002, 2006, Tisza 1993, 1995, , 2006 Rising flood peaks!? Changing distributions? Flash flood frequency Decrease in ice phenomena
9 Alpine Glacier area change s-2000 from Zemp et al. (GRL, 2006), World Glacier Monitoring Service, Departement of Geography, University of Zurich, Switzerland
10 Mass-balance of the Vernagt glacier (after Braun et al., 1999) Braun, L. N., H. Escher-Vetter, O. Reinwarth, H. Rentsch, M. Schultz, M. Weber (1999): Klimaerwärmung Gletscher - Wie verändern sich die Gebirgsabflüsse? CD-Rom der Kommission für Glaziologie der BAW, München. 1976/ /1998
11 2002 augusztusa, Magyarország
12 2006. április
13 Number of flood peaks above 500 cm (100 years Danube-Budapest) Á rh ullá m o k s z á m a cm cm cm cm jan uár febru ár m árcius áp rilis má jus jún ius júliu s aug us z tus s z ep tem ber októ ber no vem be r dec em ber
14
15 Separation of Danube flood NAGYMAROS Period 2006 Baseflow Snowmelt Rainfall induced Total flow March 1 May 2 March 21 April 15 km 3 11,84 6,12 5,15 23,11 51,2% 26,5% 22,3% 100,0% 4,66 4,16 3,80 12,62 37,0% 32,9% 30,1% 100,0%
16 Trends in ice phenomena The frequency and time duration of ice phenomena have decreased Climate change /variability Thermal loads and chemical pollution also reduce the probability of ice forming and blocking Ice cover upstream of barrages The activity of the ice-breaker fleet, the river stretches endangered by ice jams have become shorter
17 Ice phenomena on the Hungarian Danube Changes in numbers Drifting ice 80% 60% 45% Ice cover 60% 40% no S. Horváth 1988, Starosolszky 1992, Keve 2002
18 Precipitation (Jacob et al.) Relative change of mean annual precipitation in the Tisza Basin 2061/ /1990 (%) (Contour lines indicate orographic elvation zones)
19 Snow cover (Jacob et al.) Relative change of snow cover in the Tisza Basin 2061/ /1990 [%] (Contour lines indicate orographic elvation zones)
20 Results of hydrological scenarios (Hlavcova et al.) CCCM WP [%] [%] Months Months SD [%] Months
21 Observed and simulated floodwaves (Bálint & Gauzer) TISZA-TISZABECS Vízhozam (m3/s) És z le lt UKHI UKTR XCCC Dec e mber 0 Id (nap) de c. 7. de c. 12. dec. 17. dec. 22. dec. 27. jan. 1.
22 Observed and simulated floodwaves (Bálint & Gauzer) ZAGYVA-JÉSZTELEK Vízhozam (m3/s) Észlelt UKHI UKTR XCCC tavasz feb. 5. feb. 15. feb. 25. már. 6. már. 16. már. 26. ápr. 5. ápr. 15. ápr. Id 25. (nap)
23 Total runoff (Jacob et al.) Relative change of total runoff in the Tisza Basin 2061/ /1990 [%] (Contour lines indicate orographic elvation zones)
24 Runoff coefficient (Jacob et al.) Relative change of runoff coefficient in the Tisza Basin 2061/ /1990 [%] (Contour lines indicate orographic elvation zones)
25 ADAPTATION GOOD NEWS
26 POSSIBLE ADAPTATION (EEA study) +1 ADAPTATION Share loss Tolerate Prevent: structural and technological (scarcity) MEASURE Insurance Do nothing (loss of alpine and nordic flora, coastal zones) Reservoirs Water transfer Water efficiency schemes Upgrade stprm and wastewater systems Irrigation
27 POSSIBLE ADAPTATION (EEA study) +2 ADAPTATION Prevent: structural and technological (flood) Prevent: legislation, regulation MEASURE Reservoirs Resilient infrastructure, housing Make room for rivers Coastal and flood defence structures Wildlife corridors Cross sectoral planning Land use planning improved Biodiversity protection Amend design standards
28 POSSIBLE ADAPTATION (EEA study) +3 ADAPTATION Changing, retreating Research, Education, Behavioural MEASURE Move people from flood risk areas Water demanding housing, tourism to be moved Forecasting and warning systems Contingency and disaster planning Improved impact staudies River basin studies Adaptation research
29 Key impact study issues Regional downscaling, regional hydrological scenarios Regional (large scale, transboundary) hydrological modelling based on uniform climate scenarios Intercomparison studies of (medium, small catchment) hydrological modelling exercises based on uniform climate scenarios + different land use and flood protection options
30 Proposed EU directive on floods Preliminary flood risk assessment Flood risk maps Flood risk management plans (river basin/subbasin level) ICPDR Sustainable Flood Management of the Danube River Basin Harmonised Design Flood Estimates
31 Thank you for your attention
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