Climate Change in the Andes

Transcription

1 Mountain Day Highlighting the Critical Role of Mountain Ecosystems for Climate Adaptation and Sustainable Development Durban, South Africa 4 December 2011 Climate Change in the Andes Overview and Evidence MSc Dirk Hoffmann Bolivian Mountain Institute - BMI

2 Foto

3 Presentation Overview The Context: Climate Scenarios and Emissions The Tropical Andes Regional Temperature Rise Impacts of Climate Change Main Points Conclusions

4 Context International Energy Agency (IEA): Energy-related carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2010 were the highest in history.

5 Temperatura global año IPCC, 2001

6 The 2-Degrees Target The Climate Convention calls for limiting global warming to levels that do not interfere dangerously with the global climate system. Reality: This is no more possible ( warming in the pipeline ) We have failed to meet the objective of the UNFCCC. Welcome to a Four-Degree-World!

7 The South American Andes Source: Conservation International

8 Climate Change is a Reality in the Andes Temperature, precipitation and humidity have changed considerably over last 50 years. Temperature increase is now about 0.3 C per decade (Vuille et al. 2008) Mountain people are noticing changes.

9 Global Warming is not Uniform Temperature increase over continental regions is between 1.5 to 2 times higher than global average.

10 Global Warming is Expected to be Times Stronger at High Andean Elevations Source: Bradley et al. 2006

11 What does that translate to? A global average temperature increase of 4 degrees Celsius by 2100 leads to a regional increase in the Altiplano and mountain ranges of about 7 10 C. For 2030 that would mean a temperature increase compared to today s temperature of between C. Bolivian Mountain Institute: Bolivia + 4. Escenarios Socio-Políticos en un Ambiente Global con 4 C, unpublished, 2011

12 Impacts (High) Andean ecosystems are very sensitive to climatic changes Andean mountain societes are very vulnerable (subsistence farming, herding, poverty)

13 Attributing Climate Change Impacts Difficult, due to lack of data and studies. Signs of (natural) climate variability, human intervention and climate change often work together in combination. As scientists, we must be extremely careful and honest about our data.

14 What are the consequences for Andean glaciers?

15 Glacier retreat in the Tropical Andes - 1 The accelerated melting of glaciers - commenced in the 80s. There was around 2,500 km² of glaciated area in the 80s. (According to the World Glacier Monitoring Service - WGMS) Tropical glaciers: Peru 70% Bolivia 20% Ecuador & Columbia 4% Rest of the world 1%.

16 Glacier Retreat Across the Tropical Andes Cumulative length evolution (m) antizana 15A antizana15b yanam arey broggi pastoruri uruashraju Cajap Zongo (area) Cumulative area evolution (m²) Charquini-S (area) Chacaltaya (area) Edson Ramírez, Instituto de Hidráulica e Hidrología (IHH)

17 Canary in the coal mine - 1 rapid retreat of mountain glaciers is the most visible sign of global warming

18 Direct visual impact Laguna Moro Kholla, Cordillera Real, Bolivia March 2007 October 2009 Photos: Hoffmann

19 Huayna Potosí Summit, Bolivia, 6.088m August 2003 October 2009

20 The Example of Chacaltaya Glacier Left: ski competition in the 70s Right: Chacaltaya Glacier, 2005

21 Glacier retreat in the Tropical Andes - 2 New research from the Cordillera Real in Bolivia shows: 50 % reduction in surface area and volume over the last 35 years. (Soruco et al., 2009) This means a water surplus in glacial watersheds in the short term but an abrupt water decline thereafter.

22 Water - Hydrological Cycle

23 Lima, Peru Quito, Ecuador Water and Andean Cities La Paz / El Alto, Bolivia: 10-15% (A. Soruco, E. Ramírez)

24 Canary in the coal mine - 2 what is happening with glaciers worldwide is probably also happening silently and largely invisible to the majority of the people to the ecosystems around the world

25 Andean Biodiversity & Protected Areas

26 Bofedales (Andean Peat Bogs)

27 New Dangers in Mountain Regions GLOFs Glacial Lake Outburst Floods Slope instability due to thawing permafrost Avalanches, rock slides Impacts on: - mountain people - infrastructure - mountaineering & tourism

28 The Keara GLOF incident (Bolivia), November 2009 Photos: Martín Apaza Ticona

29 Main Points There are very few detailed studies of climate change impacts in the Tropical Andes. Upland lowland linkages are still poorly studied. Most existing studies for the region work with outdated emissions scenarios. There are still very many limitations to regional climate models.

30 Conclusions The main tasks for the Andes are adaptation measures and strengthening the resilience of its ecosystems and societies. In view of continuing uncertainties, scientists other than climatologists should start working with future scenarios. We need North-South as well as South- South research alliances in order to better understand the possible impacts of climate change and its interactions with other factors to orient adaptation measures.

31 One example: The Andes Himalayan Imja Lake Expedition Nepal, September 2011

32 Conclusiones continuing... It is crucial to face up to the realities of a global warming much higher than 2 degrees Celsius. Politicians and policy makers need to act now, because of the vulnerability of mountain regions and the strong inertia of the climate system. Human livelihoods in mountains should be put at the center of attention.

33 Instituto Boliviano de la Montaña - BMI Thank you for your attention! Contact: dirk.hoffmann@bolivian-mountains.