Magyar Telekom technical approach for broadband access

Transcription

1 Magyar Telekom technical approach for broadband access Peter Janeck CTO, Magyar Telekom Networks 2006 Conference New Delhi, November 6-9, /12/2006, page 1

2 Hungary key economic and telco indicators S lov e nia H u n g a r y C roa tia U kra ine R o m a n ia M o ldo v a S e rbia Magyar Telekom area GDP/capita (EUR): Population (thousand): # of fixed lines (100 habitants): 36,1 Ózd Miskolc Szerencs Kisvárda B os nia - H e rz e go v ina M o n te n e g r o A lba nia B u lga ria M a c e d o n ia G re e ce Balassagyarmat Salgótarján Nyíregyháza Mátészalka Eger Sopron Szombathely Sárvár Pápa Győr Tatabánya Székesfehérvár Vác Esztergom Szentendre Gödöllő Budapest Biatorbágy Monor Szigetszentmiklós Gyöngyös Jászberény Szolnok Mezőkövesd Karcag Debrecen Berettyóújfalu Magyar Telekom already presents Magyar Telekom PoP Veszprém Cegléd Zalaegerszeg Nagykanizsa Keszthely Tapolca Marcali Kaposvár Siófok Dunaújváros Paks Szekszárd Kiskőrös Kiskunhalas Kecskemét Szentes Orosháza Békéscsaba Reported revenues grew by 5.4% to HUF 316 bn (EUR 1,154.7 m) in Q2/06 Reported EBITDA increased by 0.5% to HUF bn EBITDA margin of 39.5%. Szigetvár Pécs Mohács Szeged Baja Emitel area 100 % owned by Magyar Telekom PSTN lines Q2/ Down by 4.6% compared to a year ago ADSL lines Q2/ More than 20% increase compared to Q4/05 01/12/2006, page 2

3 Market features specific to Hungary Low purchasing power and high telco/gdp spend Low Internet and PC penetration Low mobility premium and high fixed-mobile substitution Relatively small market size, strong fixed and mobile dependency GDP per capita purchasing power parity (EUR) Germany UK Italy Austria Hungary Internet penetration of households 6% 31% 26% 16% 20% 12% 8% Mobile premium price decreased 107% Average mobile min cost Fixed minute cost Q I Q II Q III. 120% Mobile price premium 61% 100% 41% % 80% 43 3% 3% 38-9% -8% 36 60% % 20% 0% -20% Subscriber (thousand) Mobile has grown rapidly, fixed line penetration has slowed, voice has inevitably migrated Year Comparison of telecom spending as % of GDP 4,3% 3,1% 3,3% 2,3% 2,3% PC penetration of households 47% 43% 39% 35% 29% 23% 17% Fixed-mobile substitution (minutes, ) Mobile** Fixed 3.2 bn. min. 4.7 bn. min. Fixed and mobile telecom market size (EUR billion) 15,5 18,8 17,4 33,6 28,2 26,1 Germany Austria UK Italy Hungary ,0 3,0 1,7 1,4 Germany UK Italy Austria Hungary 01/12/2006, page 3

4 Competitive landscape Core sources of competition Extended sources of competition Alternative integrated / cost synergy providers CATV Data Internet Alternative own network providers CATV Data Internet Mobile Pure-play mobiles Mobile PSTN resellers Fixed Pure-play VOIP providers Fixed 01/12/2006, page 4

5 Market leadership in a highly competitive environment Mobile Market Fixed Line Market 33,3% 21,4% 11% 9% 45,3% 80% T-Mobile Pannon Vodafone Magyar Telekom Invitel Others Broadband Market 19% 27% 54% Magyar Telekom UPC Others 01/12/2006, page 5

6 Main trends impacting MT s business. High-speed access IP network development Extend geographic coverage Broadband Wireless broadband access solutions with portable intelligent devices based on IP/NGN NGN Development Growing internet penetration and bandwidth demand Common strategy between T-Cabel and T-Com for offering enhanced services (Voip ( Voip,, IPTV, 3play) Mobility Mobile dominates voice market Merging T-Mobile and T-Com Hungary Moving forward fixed-mobile convergence and quadruple play Services Multimedia services for information, communication entertainment, etc 01/12/2006, page 6

7 Forecasted fixed line development Lines (thousand) Voice Total - Target is to stop decline of fixed voice decreasing PSTN/ISDN lines as the result of external effects competitors, mobile and VoInternet substitution ADSL broadband access NGN VoIP deployment on broadband access /12/2006, page 7

8 Broadband customer evolution Thousand subscribers rd Party + Corporate DSL million Target Broadband access VoIP IPTV Gaming Targeted broadband customers at the end of 2008: VoIP, IPTV and broadband gaming customers are also broadband access subscribers MT VAS retail subscribers will take off and represent a significant portion of total customer base: in year 2008 dual and triple players will be 15 % and 22 % of total access 01/12/2006, page 8

9 3play service delivery platform MT s 3play offer: PSTN (later VoIP), ADSL (512k, 1M, 2M) IPTV with (44 channels films for VoD) 01/12/2006, page 9

10 Fixed and wireless BB access technologies Mobility Vehicle High Speed Vehicle Rural Vehicle Urban Flash OFDM IEEE Wireless Walk Pedestrian Nomadic GSM GPRS EDGE UMTS* HSDPA* Mobile WiMAX* Wireline** Fixed Fixed Urban Indoor Personal Area DECT BlueTooth ADSL ADSL2+ VDSL2 WiFi* Fixed WiMAX* LMDS GPON >>100 Mbit/s 0, Capacity [Mb/s] 01/12/2006, page 10

11 Applied technologies and BB coverage Availability of technologies Volume and breakdown ADSL2+ VDSL2 Eth.. SHDSL GPON WiMAX WLAN HSDPA In pilot phase Application ADSL ADSL2+ VDSL2 GPON Broadband coverage Rollout plan: settlements 2433 settlements T-Com service area T-Com BB service area at the end of y Wireline BB solutions Conceptually taken as for wireline BB solution Settlements that cannot be served from business interest Developments funded with governmental or EU finance. Wireline or wireless solution is selected case by case. Cca settlements =1 300 settlements T-Com BB service area at the end of y /12/2006, page 11

12 DSL ranges and loop length distribution The focus is on the continued expansion of broadband access to exploit fixed network s broadband capabilities. Broadband development will serve objectives of IPTV (3play) and the multi-service NGN deployment. Mass market broadband demands will be served on the basis of ADSL and next versions: ADSL2, ADSL2+, VDSL2. 01/12/2006, page 12

13 Phases of wireline BB access network deployment FTTP (FTTH) FTTN (FTTC/B /B) Optical depth depth Near-term goal Present status Mid-term goal A Extended rézh zhálózat zat broadband részleges coverage cseréje Full optical solution Building optical transport nearer to the user aims - accomplishing coverage to white spots and to solve real estate limits; - increasing bandwidth demands by new DSL standards, ADSL2/2+/VDSL2 having shorter range Implementing DSLAMs at different nodes on a cable-route causes interference problems. Avoiding disturbances needs careful planning and spectrum management. FTT- Central Office Initial broadband coverage Extended bandwidth Technology In long term optical deployment towards user endpoints is the general direction. ADSL ADSL2/2+ VDSL2 ADSL ADSL2+ 1G PON EFM-Fibre Fibre 100M/1G P2P 01/12/2006, page 13

14 WiMAX is a new, promising wireless broadband access technology WiMAX can be used in the following frequency bands: license exempt frequency band (5.8GHz,expected in 2007) licensed frequency band (3.5 GHz) greater range, higher availability and quality, lower interference suitable for guaranteed services (QoS) High capacity: aggregated rate of one base station can supply about 700 ADSL equivalent subscribers Line of sight is not required ease and freedom of installation WiMAX is to be used where copper network is not available / not economical WiMAX Urban Suburban Rural UMTS/ HSxPA WiMAX implementations have to be harmonised with UMTS/HSxPA roll-out 01/12/2006, page 14

15 Economical considerations for WiMAX application WiMAX can be utilized economically in T-Com areas with low ADSL availability*; broader opportunity of usage in LTO areas but possibility of unbundling have to be taken account ADSL availability: penetration and conditions of copper network for ADSL implementation Source: WiMAX Forum Accumulated cash flow 40 WiMAX expected pay-back Accumulated cash flow [million Euro] Operator Competencies GSM+Fixed UMTS+GSM+Fixed Fixed only New entrant -30 Year Source: EURESCOM P1554 (January 2006) ACF: Accumulated Cash Flow Despite of price drops, current prices of WiMAX equipment still prevent from positive short term business cases for incumbents. Current and estimated specific CAPEX is EUR /customer 01/12/2006, page 15

16 WiMAX -Technological system built-up & working services as March 2006 CPE Outdoor Unit with Integrated ANTENNA CPE Indoor Unit 1*ETH WiNET KLIP Sectorial ANTENNA 60 ; 90 ; 120 WiMAX Base Station Outdoor Unit WiMAX Micro Base Station 2 channels, DC CPE Outdoor Unit with Integrated ANTENNA CPE Outdoor Unit with Integrated ANTENNA CPE Indoor Unit 1*ETH Ethernet Voice Gateway IVD3 IVD4 WiNET WiTALK POTS MT 3,5 Ghz GH freqency: CPE Outdoor Unit with Integrated ANTENNA CPE Indoor Unit 1*ETH CISCO ,5-3476,5 MHz 3562,5-3576,5 MHz CAT 5 CPE Indoor Unit Networking Gateway Wireless WLAN g Ethernet VoIP IP PHONE 01/12/2006, page 16

17 Overview of ADSL Node and NodeB locations in the country Blue dots are the existing ADSL Nodes (2006) Red dots are the new ADSL Nodes (2010) Purple blocks are the NodeBs in y.2010 Conclusion: Access methods for BB connections should be selected case by case, area by area, based on economic considerations. Fix-mobile convergence for incumbents is key for future success. 01/12/2006, page 17