Top. Communities. of ,263 new home sales last year at top 50 masterplans, a 14% increase over 2014

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1 Top Communities 50Master-Planned 23,263 new home sales last year at top 50 masterplans, a 14% increase over 2014 By Jody Kahn and Devyn Bachman In 2015, the top 50 masterplans listed on the next page sold nearly 23,300 homes, representing: A 14% increase over 2014 Roughly 4.7% of all new home sales nationally The highest sales volume in the 6 years we have been compiling our list In most cases, historically low mortgage rates, solid job growth, low levels of resale competition, and outstanding execution by the developers drove demand. Our consulting team consulted on or visited every one of these communities in 2015, frequently noting fantastic segmentation, amenity packages more focused on experiences than large facilities, and outstanding development execution at just about all of them. Our team has noted some highlights below, and we also featured several of the communities in our DesignLens subscription. The Magic Number Eleven communities exceeded 500 sales, a rarely achieved industry milestone that usually requires an excellent location, thoughtful segmentation, extensive marketing, and a strong market. Improved sales and many more competing communities raised the bar for this year s top 50 masterplans from 226 sales last year to 256 sales this year. Research Analyst Devyn Bachman notes, Our research confirmed a dramatic increase in the number of masterplans selling 200 to 300 homes annually. Devyn and Jody Kahn compiled a ranking of 230 communities to publish our ranking. Please contact them if we missed yours or you hope to be in the 2016 ranking next January. Regional Concentrations Texas continues to lead the country. The state boasts 17 of the top 50 best-selling master-planned communities, including 9 in Houston, the most of any metro area, 6 in Dallas, and one each in Austin and San Antonio. California contributed 11 top sellers, Florida had 7 communities, Las Vegas contributed 4, and Denver had 3. After getting shut out in 2014, 3 Phoenix communities joined the list, including Vistancia and Verrado, due to a revival in sales, and newcomer Eastmark. Texas Our Houston leader David Jarvis notes that MPCs are extremely popular in Houston. Since Houston has little zoning, planned communities have stepped in to provide the lifestyle and amenities that home buyers desire. 5thranked Riverstone s high-end homes, resort style pools, tennis courts, fitness center, lakes and miles of walking trails persuaded 609 home buyers last year! Annie Radecki, who recently joined us from Pulte s Texas region, says that Light Farms in Dallas proves that buyers will still commute for value. 402 buyers last year took advantage of low prices relative to closer-in areas, great amenities, and the promise of great access once the Dallas North Tollway is completed. California The Irvine Ranch retained the #2 ranking this year with 1,674 new home sales. Adam Artunian observes, The Irvine Ranch s international reputation for great schools continues to attract many Asian buyers, with prices ranging from the low-$500ks to well over $2M. Two luxury masterplans within the masterplan, Orchard Hills and Hidden Canyon, completed their first full year of sales, helping boost sales above 2014 levels. Mollie Carmichael consulted with nearby Baker Ranch, which has capitalized on the high prices in Irvine and sold 355 resort lifestyle homes at a compelling value to nearby Irvine. CONTINUED >>

2 Top-Selling Master-Planned Communities Ranked by 2015 Net Sales 1 THE VILLAGES The Villages, FL (Central FL) 2 THE IRVINE RANCH Orange County, CA 3 NOCATEE Jacksonville, FL 4 STAPLETON Denver, CO 5 RIVERSTONE Houston, TX 6 SUMMERLIN Las Vegas, NV 7 ALAMO RANCH San Antonio, TX 8 EASTMARK Phoenix, AZ 9 LAKEWOOD RANCH Sarasota, FL 10 CANE BAY PLANTATION Charleston, SC 11t 11t LAKE NONA Orlando, FL WESTRIDGE Dallas, TX 13 VISTANCIA Phoenix, AZ 14 PROVIDENCE Las Vegas, NV 15 PALOMA CREEK Dallas, TX 16 VALENCIA Los Angeles, CA 17 ALIANA Houston, TX 18t 18t 20t 20t CANYON LAKES WEST Houston, TX WILDWOOD AT NORTHPOINTE Houston, TX DAYBREAK Salt Lake City, UT WOODFOREST Houston, TX 22 VIERA Brevard County, FL 23 LIGHT FARMS Dallas, TX 24 INSPIRADA Las Vegas, NV 25 PHILLIPS CREEK RANCH Dallas, TX 26 MADEIRA Sacramento, CA 27 WESTPARK Sacramento, CA 28 BRAMBLETON Washington, DC 29 SIENNA PLANTATION Houston, TX 30 BAKER RANCH Orange County, CA 31 VERRADO Phoenix, AZ 32 CROSS CREEK RANCH Houston, TX 33 RICHWOODS Dallas, TX 34 RANCHO MISSION VIEJO Orange County, CA 35 THE MEADOWS Denver, CO 36 MAYFIELD RANCH Austin, TX 37 MOUNTAIN S EDGE Las Vegas, NV 38t 38t 40t 40t DEL SUR San Diego, CA ENCORE CLUB AT REUNION Orlando, FL AVE MARIA Naples, FL CASTLE HILLS Dallas, TX 42 GREAT PARK NEIGHBORHOODS Orange County, CA 43t 43t GRAND MISSION ESTATES Houston, TX GREEN VALLEY RANCH Denver, CO 45 VILLEBOIS Portland, OR 46 TEHALEH Tacoma, WA 47 ST. CHARLES Washington, DC 48 OAKHURST AT KINGSWOOD Houston, TX 49t SUNDANCE Riverside-San Bernardino, CA 49t CANYON HILLS Riverside-San Bernardino, CA CONTINUED >>

3 Mollie adds, The Great Park Neighborhoods is a masterplan to watch, with really unique village amenities and new product ideas for single-family attached and detached product types. The neighborhoods have been very popular among Asian consumers looking for excellent schools and proximity to employment, retail, and a nearby airport. Pete Reeb commented on Del Sur in San Diego, noting, The location near employment and in one of the best school districts in San Diego County attracted 289 buyers despite $1 million+ price points at many of the neighborhoods. The community includes three new schools, multiple parks, and also preserved a substantial amount of permanent preserved open space, creating a high quality of life. Far northeast of Del Sur, in Southern Riverside County, Canyon Hills had another great year, selling 263 homes. With more than 2,500 new home sales over the last 15 years, Pete noted that the community has a strong sense of place and great values for Southern California, priced from the low $300,000s to the low $400,000s. Two Sacramento area masterplans made our top 50 ranking, and two masterplans in the northern Central Valley narrowly missed. Dean Wehrli pointed out that 26th-ranked Madeira sold 90% more homes in 2015 due partially to marketing efforts that highlighted the excellent reputation of Elk Grove schools and the commutability to downtown Sacramento. On the opposite side of the MSA, Aaron Stubblefield observed, WestPark in Roseville sold 140% more homes by appealing to a family-friendly suburban lifestyle, as well as an upscale retail profile in the region. Florida Demand from family, retiree, and foreign buyers bolstered sales at Florida s top-selling masterplans. Lesley Deutch states, 9th-ranked Lakewood Ranch in Sarasota continues its success with 535 sales in The community benefited from attracting new builders to the MPC, including Meritage, DiVosta, Del Webb, Mattamy, and Stock Development, who offer a wide array of home products, sizes, and prices ranging from $190,000 townhomes to $1,000,000+ custom estates. Lake Nona in Orlando moves up to the 11th spot this year and provides a great example of creating work/life balance. In 2005, the developer donated the land and money to the University of Central Florida to build a medical city that is now growing in leaps and bounds and helped establish Lake Nona as one of the premier places to live in Orlando, offering residents homes that are close to work, retail, and entertainment and beyond should be even bigger thanks to the planned completion of the first phase of the town center, including restaurants, office, and a dual-brand Marriott Hotel. Moving northwest of Orlando, Kristine Smale observes, The Villages continues to top the list at 2,294 sales in 2015, the only community to achieve 2,000+ new homes sales and, amazingly, all by the same builder. The Villages has long been the behemoth in age-restricted communities throughout the country, primarily due to its abundance of amenities and community activities at an affordable cost. Sales have declined as land in the community is running out. Moving east to Jacksonville, Mike Willinger notes, The nine builders in Nocatee are providing a wide array of product offerings, including townhomes, single-family, and a Del Webb active-adult community. Nocatee is probably the only masterplan on the list whose prices per square foot show little premium over the resale market, making the decision easy for Jacksonville s price-sensitive buyers. Arizona Ken Perlman notes that Phoenix masterplans made a comeback this year due to strong job growth and more price incentives, after raising prices too quickly in 2013 and DMB s success at 8th-ranked Eastmark in Phoenix can be attributed to community amenities that include the Eastmark Great Park (a mile and a half long at its completion), an events pavilion, a community pool, and access to some of the metro area s best schools. CONTINUED >>

4 Ken adds, At 13th-ranked Vistancia, the golf, retail, and Discovery trail all serve as the perfect backdrop for great segmentation that includes a blend of high-quality single-family homes, a luxury gated community, and a top active-adult community. Ken adds, DMB s development of Verrado in west Phoenix focused on creating a modern hometown with small-town design principles. The MPC includes 66 parks and 21 miles of trails, in addition to the Heritage Swim Park and Grand Lawn designed as community gathering places. We expect Verrado s sales to increase in 2016 with the opening of Victory, an enclave of activeadult homes from four different builders. Nevada Ken Perlman notes, Summerlin continues to be a shining star in Las Vegas, demonstrating that a premium location, strong amenities, and great schools the basic tenets of master-planned community development will drive sales. What is perhaps most impressive is that Summerlin is the best-selling masterplan in Las Vegas despite top-of-the-market pricing, demonstrating that buyers will clearly pay for those lifestyle elements they want the most. Northwest Two Pacific Northwest masterplans, Villebois and Tehaleh, join the top 50 for the first time. Ken Perlman notes that limited land availability and a lengthy entitlement process add to the challenges of developing master-planned communities in the Pacific Northwest. This year marks the first time that a Northwest masterplan cracked our Top 50. And even better, there are two. Kristin Matthews observes that while each is unique in its own right, an emphasis on outdoor living with elements such as trails, parks, and even farmer s markets are common themes, consistent with Pacific Northwest living. Ken adds, Tehaleh, developed by master-planned community stalwart Newland Communities, is making its first appearance on JBREC s Top 50 list this year. Located in Bonney Lake with views of Mt. Rainier, Tehaleh is approved for approximately 5,900 residential units. Seattle residents have accepted the longer commute from Tehaleh to benefit from the lifestyle and relative affordability, with single-family detached homes starting in the mid $200,000s. Shea s Trilogy neighborhood targeting 55+ buyers added to the community s strong sales in Washington, DC, Area Despite a year of sluggish sales amid concerns about the federal budget, two Northeast masterplans remain among the top sellers: Brambleton and St. Charles. Dan Fulton notes, Good execution, impressive product segmentation appealing to singles, couples, families and retirees, suburban walkability, miles of trails and parks, great schools, and trusted builder partner relationships keep Brambleton on the Top 50 MPC list for Rosemary DeButts expects Brambleton s rank to increase in 2016 thanks to a new 1,500-unit, agerestricted section. Dan adds, The good schools, family-oriented amenities, slower pace of life, and affordable prices at St. Charles make this community an ideal place to raise a family, while still being accessible from the Washington metro area. Along with these location and product attributes, we recognize the St. Charles development team for its outstanding execution and strong reputation in the Washington region. Southeast Charleston s Cane Bay Plantation is the sole masterplan in the Southeast to achieve a top 50 ranking. Southeast senior consultant David Kalosis comments, Cane Bay Plantation leaps into the Top 10 list this year with 520 sales compared to 385 sales last year. This established masterplan, which is located in Charleston s bedroom suburb of Summerville, draws CONTINUED >>

5 much of its success from relocating families and retirees to the Charleston area, which perennially ranks as Conde Nast Traveler s Top US City. On the retirement side, Del Webb Charleston has been the active-adult anchor for the community and will be replaced by K Hovnanian s Four Seasons this spring as Del Webb closes out. Traditional family builders have also been successful targeting entry-level and first move-up families here, thanks in large part to the recent expansions at Boeing, Volvo, Mercedes-Benz, and Google. Utah Mollie Carmichael notes that the Daybreak masterplan ranked #20 this year with 4 villages including 30+/- new neighborhoods in West Jordan, Utah. The developer has completely transformed the West Jordan area into one with a lake-oriented lifestyle, integrated retail, walkability, and incredible character throughout all of its villages and amenities. Colorado Jenni Lantz noted that 4th-ranked Stapleton in Denver grew sales 31% in 2015, to 665 new home sales. Until recently, we rated Denver as one of the hottest housing markets in the country, which certainly helped. In 2016, Stapleton should benefit from a new commuter rail station with access to Denver International Airport and Union Station. Ken Perlman adds that Stapleton is one of the most unique and successful examples of adaptive reuse in the country. The reinvention of the former Stapleton International Airport features parks and paths, tree-lined streets, and architecturally diverse homes within 15 minutes of downtown. Ken Perlman says, Located in Castle Rock, once considered to be the southern edge of the market, The Meadows has evolved into one of the most desirable addresses in all of Denver. Buyers are choosing The Meadows based on its good value, strong Douglas County schools, parks and open space, and a reasonable commute to the Denver Tech Center. Interesting Trends Jody Kahn identified four additional interesting trends this year while reviewing 230 masterplans: Some masterplans lacked the number of sales to make the top 50 but might qualify if we ranked by revenues. Brookfield Residential s Playa Vista masterplan in Los Angeles captured 93 net sales in 2015, with prices starting at $2.0 million for attached and detached living. On the East Coast, Daniel Island in Charleston reported 93 net sales in 2015 with an average price approaching $850,000. Another example is the Hallsley masterplan in Richmond, VA, with 194 sales priced at the high end of the local market. In Florida, Kitson & Partners Talis Park community offers coach homes starting in the $700s and up to $3.6 million for luxury condominiums adjacent to the clubhouse. Several restructured masterplans made the top 50. At Madeira and Villebois, the original developer went out of business or lost control of the assets during the housing correction, and multiple builders purchased sections of lots or land and are building adjacent to each other. At Inspirada, one of the biggest land bankruptcies of the recent downturn, four builders operate as co-developers through a joint venture, with a cohesive community brand and marketing. The success of each of these masterplans is a testimony to the strong sales of each of the participating builders. Despite no developer controlling segmentation, marketing, and branding, several Texas and Florida masterplans achieved success. Oakleaf Plantation in Jacksonville is one example that did not qualify for the top 50 ranking, but that is partially because nobody is counting sales. With over 300 closings in 2015, Oakleaf might have captured enough sales to qualify for our list. CONTINUED >>

6 Many of these communities have been featured in DesignLens as design leaders. Isabell Kerins notes that neighborhoods in 17 of our top 50 MPCs have received DesignLens awards highlighting innovation in architecture, design, and merchandising. Contact Isabell for more information on our DesignLens monthly publication and extensive, searchable database. To complete this analysis we connected with developer, builder, and capital source contacts at more than 230 master-planned communities nationwide. FOR MORE INFORMATION JODY KAHN Sr. Vice President DEVYN BACHMAN Research Analyst In 2015, our consultants based in 11 different offices nationwide completed more than 700 consulting assignments, visiting thousands of communities in the process. Our team assists master-planned community developers and builders with research and segmentation, helping them maximize profit by targeting the right buyer profiles and offering the most profitable array of new home and community offerings. John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (JBREC) congratulates the developers and home builders that made the top 50 masterplans so successful in We considered over 230 master-planned communities (MPCs) across the country to identify the top 50 based on their new home sales activity in Please contact Ken Perlman at com and or Jody Kahn at realestateconsulting.com and with questions about any of the top 50 communities. They can connect you to the appropriate person. More ranking and sales data can be found on the following page.

7 Rankings Project Name Developer Net Sales YOY% and Location THE VILLAGES The Villages, FL (Central FL) Villages of Lake Sumter, LLC 2,294 2,601-12% 2 2 THE IRVINE RANCH 1 Orange County, CA The Irvine Company 1,674 1,431 17% 3 3 NOCATEE Jacksonville, FL The PARC Group 1, % 4 7 STAPLETON Denver, CO Forest City Enterprises % 5 4 RIVERSTONE Houston, TX Johnson Development Corp % 6 17 SUMMERLIN Las Vegas, NV The Howard Hughes Corporation % 7 6 ALAMO RANCH 2 San Antonio, TX Galo Properties % 8 N/A EASTMARK Phoenix, AZ DMB % 9 9t LAKEWOOD RANCH Sarasota, FL Schroeder-Manatee Ranch, Inc % CANE BAY PLANTATION Charleston, SC Gramling Brothers Real Estate & Development % 11t 19 LAKE NONA Orlando, FL Tavistock Group % 11t 34 WESTRIDGE Dallas, TX D.R. Horton % 13 N/A VISTANCIA Phoenix, AZ Vistancia Land Holdings/Stratford Land % PROVIDENCE Las Vegas, NV Focus Property Group % 15 N/A PALOMA CREEK 3 Dallas, TX Provident Realty Advisors % 16 9t VALENCIA Los Angeles, CA Five Point Communities/Newhall Land % 17 8 ALIANA Houston, TX Aliana Development Company % 18t 22 CANYON LAKES WEST Houston, TX Land Tejas Company % 18t 16 WILDWOOD AT NORTHPOINTE 3 Houston, TX Friendswood Development Company % 20t 28t DAYBREAK Salt Lake City, UT Kennecott Land % 20t 20 WOODFOREST Houston, TX Johnson Development Corp % VIERA Brevard County, FL The Viera Company % 23 N/A 24 N/A LIGHT FARMS Dallas, TX INSPIRADA Las Vegas, NV Republic Property Group Beazer, KB Home, Pardee Homes and Toll Brothers % 281% 25 28t PHILLIPS CREEK RANCH Dallas, TX Republic Property Group % Rank increased Rank declined 1 The Irvine Ranch includes Cypress Village, Portola Springs, Stonegate, and Orchard Hills 2 Estimates 3 Preliminary Bold: Multiple MPCs on list SOURCE: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (January 2016)

8 Rankings Project Name Developer Net Sales YOY% and Location N/A MADEIRA Sacramento, CA D.R. Horton, JMC Homes, KB Home, Richmond American and Taylor Morrison % 27 N/A WESTPARK Sacramento, CA Westpark Communities % BRAMBLETON Washington, DC Brambleton Group, LLC % SIENNA PLANTATION Houston, TX Johnson Development Corp % BAKER RANCH 2 Orange County, CA Shea Homes and Toll Brothers % 31 N/A VERRADO Phoenix, AZ DMB % CROSS CREEK RANCH Houston, TX Johnson Development Corp % 33 N/A RICHWOODS Dallas, TX John Landon Development % 34 13t RANCHO MISSION VIEJO Orange County, CA Rancho Mission Viejo, LLC % THE MEADOWS Denver, CO Castle Rock Development Co % 36 N/A MAYFIELD RANCH Austin, TX Blake Magee Company % 37 5 MOUNTAIN S EDGE Las Vegas, NV Focus Property Group % 38t 48 DEL SUR San Diego, CA Standard Pacific Homes % 38t N/A ENCORE CLUB AT REUNION Orlando, FL Encore Capital Management % 40t 49 AVE MARIA Naples, FL Barron Collier Companies % 40t N/A CASTLE HILLS Dallas, TX Bright Realty Development % GREAT PARK NEIGHBORHOODS Orange County, CA Five Point Communities % 43t 38t GRAND MISSION ESTATES 2 Houston, TX Friendswood Development Company % 43t N/A 46 N/A GREEN VALLEY RANCH Denver, CO VILLEBOIS Portland, OR TEHALEH Tacoma, WA Oakwood Homes Legend Homes, Lennar and Polygon Northwest Newland Communities % 33% 59% ST. CHARLES Washington, DC St. Charles Companies % OAKHURST AT KINGWOOD 2 Houston, TX Friendswood Development Company % 49t N/A SUNDANCE 2 Riverside-San Bernardino, CA Pardee Homes % 49t N/A CANYON HILLS 2 Riverside-San Bernardino, CA Pardee Homes % Rank increased Rank declined 1 The Irvine Ranch includes Cypress Village, Portola Springs, Stonegate, and Orchard Hills 2 Estimates 3 Preliminary TOTAL 23, , % Bold: Multiple MPCs on list SOURCE: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (January 2016)

9 Communities About Us John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC helps executives make informed housing industry decisions. Our passionate team of analysts and consultants from around the country helps our clients identify the best risk-adjusted investment opportunities. We are known for our: Client focus. Our clients have personal access to our team of market and industry experts. We also connect clients to opportunities for new business. We always seek to innovate and improve our practices to make our clients lives easier. Quick Stats Regularly Quoted In: Speed. We are focused exclusively on housing and strive to have the most current data at our fingertips. We are diligent, regularly out in the field, and tapped into industry leaders resulting in great research and advice. Proprietary tools. We have created many tools to provide unique and timely insight. They include a monthly survey of builder executives, several indexes and forecasts, and a demand model by price range and household composition. Data quality. We create, collect, and buy the best industry data available, and our analysts then tell clients how to apply that insight to their business planning. Local knowledge. Our team has offices in many major housing markets across the country. Management expertise. Our team leaders are seasoned industry veterans who have learned from multiple housing cycles. Trusted integrity. We are independent advisors. We do not recommend stock investments or take contingency fees so that it is clear we have no conflicting agendas. Weekly Newsletter Top 50 Bloomberg Ticker 30,000+ subscribers 300K+ followers 3,000+ followers JBRE

10 Top50 Master-Planned Communities John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC takes great pride in our highly educated, resourceful, and experienced team that includes practitioners with 25+ years of experience in both home building and community development. As a research client, you gain access to our team across the nation to discuss market conditions, our current research, and our forecasts. REGIONAL OFFICE LOCATIONS ATLANTA, GA BOCA RATON, FL CHARLOTTE, NC CHICAGO, IL DALLAS, TX DENVER, CO FORT MYERS, FL HOUSTON, TX IRVINE, CA LAS VEGAS NEW ENGLAND PORTLAND, OR RALEIGH-DURHAM, NC SACRAMENTO, CA SAN DIEGO, CA WASHINGTON, DC WISCONSIN