Measuring the High-End Seniors Housing Market PCBC. Adam Ducker June 24, 2011

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1 Measuring the High-End Seniors Housing Market PCBC Adam Ducker June 24, 2011

2 ABOUT THE DATA Analysis based on a March 2010 paper survey conducted by the American Affluence Research Center, with the participation of RCLCO Results based on 405 completed surveys Respondents represent the top 10% of Americans in terms of net worth, or more than $800,000, reflecting both home equity and net investible assets Survey participants reflect a broad range of ages (1/3<50), but were asked to contemplate a change of lifestyle related to retirement and/or their children leaving home. Net Worth Percentile of U.S. Households % of Rebalanced Survey Results $8000K-$1.5M$ % $1.5M-5.9M % $6M % Total % 1

3 THE VAST MAJORITY OF AMERICANS STILL PLAN ON AGING IN PLACE Empty Nester Housing Plans All respondents 70% 65% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 14% 14% 10% 4% 3% 0% N=391 Will remain in current home Will retire to a resort or other location Will move to different home in my metropolitan area Will move to condominium downtown in my current metro area Will move to condominium in suburb of my current metro area 2

4 YOUNGER HOUSEHOLDS EXPRESS HIGHER LIKELIHOOD TO CHANGE HOUSING MODE Empty Nesters Who Intend to Remain in Current Home All respondents by age 72% 71% 70% 68% 66% 64% 63% 62% 60% 59% 58% 56% 54% 52% < 50 Years Old Years Old 60+ Years Old N=391 3

5 NORTHEASTERNERS/MIDWESTERNERS MORE LIKELY TO CHANGE HOUSING IN EMPTY NEST Empty Nests Who Intend to Change Housing During Empty Nester-hood All respondents by region 50% 45% 46% 44% 40% 38% 35% 30% 25% 20% 22% 15% 10% 5% 0% East South Central West N= 139 (East), 40 (South), 31 (Central), 157 (West) 4

6 OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT MOVE - 60% WILL STAY LOCAL, 40% T0 MOVE TO RESORT LOCATION Empty Nester Housing Plans All respondents who intend to move Will move to different home in my metropolitan area 40% Will move to condominium in suburb of my current metro area 7% Will move to condominium downtown in my current metro area 12% Will retire to a resort or other location 40% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% N=117 5

7 EASTERNERS MOST LIKELY TO MOVE TO A RESORT THAN WESTERNERS Empty Nester Interest in Resort Setting - West Coast versus East Coast All respondents who intend to move 60% 50% 48% 40% 33% 30% 20% 10% 0% Will retire to a resort or other location East West N=85 6

8 LARGER UNITS REQUIRED TO ACCOMMODATE THIS BUYER Empty Nest Condominium Size Requirements All respondents who would consider condominiums 2,000+ Sq. Fit 45% 1,500-2,000 Sq. Ft. 42% 1,000-1,500 Sq. Ft. 10% <1,000 Sq. Ft. 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% N=231 Note 41% would not consider condominium under any circumstance 7

9 MOST BUYERS STILL SEE CONDOMINIUMS AS A BUY-DOWN OPTION Condominium Buy-Down Expectations All respondents who would consider condominiums 20%+ less than value of current home 69% 10%-20% less than value of current home 19% Same value as current home 9% More than value of current home 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% N=231 8

10 BUYERS EQUALLY CONCERNED WITH UNIT FEATURES AND LOCATION FACTORS Most Important Features for Condominium Buyers All respondents who would consider condominiums indicating one of top three factors Proximity to Restaurants/Retail 58% Amenities such as pool 35% Views 35% Parking 34% Proximity to Cultural Venues 26% Safety 25% Social Opportunities within the Community Storage 18% 16% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% N=231 9

11 STATED INTEREST IN SECOND HOME PURCHASE REBOUNDING SIGNIFICANTLY Intent to Purchase a Second Home Next Twelve Months All Respondents % 10% 5% 0% Spring '02 Fall '02 Spring '03 Fall '03 Spring '04 Fall '04 Spring Fall '05 Spring Fall '06 Spring Fall '07 Spring Fall '08 Spring Fall '09 Spring Fall '10 Spring '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 N=405 All Respondents Wealth $6M+ 10

12 SECOND HOME BUYING INTEREST MOST SIGNIFICANT AMONG <50 YEAR-OLDS Interest in Second Home Purchase by Age All respondents 7% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 1% 1% 0% Will build a new vacation house in the next 12 months Will purchase an existing vacation residence in the next 12 months < N=405 11

13 INTEREST IN DESTINATION CLUB AND PRC SURPRISINGLY HIGH Second Home Types Respondents Would Seriously Consider Buying in the Next 12 Months All respondents who would seriously consider a second home purchase 45% 43% 40% 35% 35% 30% 25% 20% 20% 15% 15% 13% 10% 5% 0% Private Residence Club Destination Club Second home for seasonal use Second home for more frequent use Timeshare N=40 Note: Respondents allowed multiple answers so percentages do not sum to 100% 12

14 MAJOR U.S. METROS WITH HIGH NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH NET WEALTH $500K+ Interest in Second Home Purchase by Age All respondents Seattle 148,000 Bay Area 347,000 Los Angeles 489,000 San Diego 91,000 Phoenix 121,000 9M HouseholdsTotal in the U.S. Denver 98,000 Note: $500K in net wealth is estimated t to roughly equate to wealth and home equity totaling $800K Dallas 205,000 Minneapolis 113,000 Houston 183,000 Chicago 325,000 St. Louis 90,000 Boston 220,000 New York Philly Detroit 794, , ,000 Washington 282,000 Atlanta 205,000 Miami 157,000 13

15 TOTAL MARKET DEPTH OF AFFLUENT EMPTY NESTERS RELOCATING TO RESORTS Interest in Second Home Purchase by Age All respondents Seattle 10,700 Minneapolis 23,800 Chicago 68, Bay Area Denver 25,200 7,100 St. Louis Los Angeles 19,000 35,500 Phoenix San Diego 8,800 Dallas 6,600 25,700 Houston 22,900 Boston 48,700 New York Philly Detroit 175,000 52,500 35,100 Washington 62,300 Atlanta 25,700 Miami 19,600 14

16 TOTAL MARKET DEPTH OF AFFLUENT EMPTY NESTERS RELOCATING TO DOWNTOWN CONDOS Interest in Second Home Purchase by Age All respondents Seattle 3,900 Minneapolis 5,900 Chicago 17,200 Bay Area Denver 9,200 2,600 St. Louis Los Angeles 4,800 12,900 Phoenix San Diego 3,200 Dallas 2,400 9,400 Houston 8,300 Boston 12,200 New York Philly Detroit 43,800 13,100 8,800 Washington 15,600 Atlanta 9,300 Miami 7,100 15

17 TOTAL MARKET DEPTH OF AFFLUENT EMPTY NESTERS RELOCATING TO SUBURBAN CONDOS Interest in Second Home Purchase by Age All respondents Seattle 2,300 Minneapolis 3,500 Chicago 10, Bay Area Denver 5,300 1,500 St. Louis Los Angeles 2,800 7,500 Phoenix San Diego 1,900 Dallas 1,400 5,500 Houston 4,800 Boston 7,100 New York Philly Detroit 25,600 7,700 5,100 Washington 9,100 Atlanta 5,400 Miami 4,200 16

18 KEY TAKE-AWAYS INCREASE THE NEED TO MOVE AS BOOMERS AGE Most Americans will remain in their current home as long as they can, builder/developers can encourage empty nesters to choose new and better housing by: Delivering smarter housing that is more energy efficient and has more predictable occupancy costs Promoting the health benefits of sustainably built housing Fully embracing emerging technology (particularly around healthfulness) that can improve and pro long life Delivering housing in retail and service rich locations that reduces reliance on the automobile 17

19 KEY TAKE-AWAYS EMERGING SEGMENTATION IN RELOATION PREFERENCES Among those empty nesters who intend to move, there is interest in three distinct product segments each of which represents a unique and compelling opportunity: Suburban/exurban low density housing locations 40% of the market Resort or other non-metropolitan locations including college towns and other places 40% of the market High-density product in urban and urbanizing suburban locations 20% of the market 18

20 KEY TAKE-AWAYS ANTICIPATE OBJECTIONS TO HIGH-DENSITY SOLUTIONS The consumer expects to buy down prepare to educate regarding the health and lifestyle benefits of high-density housing The consumer is still expecting a large unit floor plans need to be efficient and well conceived so that the buyers can visualize their lives in the unit (it will be hard to sell off paper ); inbuilding storage a must Amenitize buildings smartly but generously, including facilities that allow the move-down customer to have flex space when needed guest bedrooms, grand/catered dining rooms, guest parking, etc. 19

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