INDIA m-powering 2011

Transcription

1 INDIA m-powering 2011

2 Foreword The Indian telecom sector has emerged as a strong growth engine for the Indian economy in the last decade, with the country witnessing a voice revolution. The upcoming decade will usher in an information era through Mobile Value-Added Services (MVAS). MVAS has assumed vast significance in recent times due to the rapid growth in wireless subscriber base, the focus on data services and the increase in the uptake of 3G. Consequently, the mobile phone has transformed into a persuasive medium to deliver information services spanning various usage areas such as governance, commerce, agriculture, education and health. This, coupled with the sheer pervasiveness of mobile telephony ( million subscribers as of August 2011), is contributing to a more inclusive and better empowered nation. A conducive regulatory environment, the focus on India s untapped rural sector, enhanced quality of services, better technology and increasingly affordable devices are imperative for MVAS to be able to empower each and every citizen of India both rural as well as urban. Not only will these services lead to improved information access for subscribers, but they will also open up new and alternative revenue streams for service providers. On the occasion of India Telecom 2011, the 6th International Conference and Exhibition, the Department of Telecommunications takes immense pleasure in releasing this report titled m-powering India. Developed by KPMG in India and FICCI, the report explores how mobile telephony is leading to empowerment in the nation against the backdrop of the overall telecom sector. This report is expected to serve as a useful reference manual for all stakeholders. R. Chandrashekar Secretary Department of Telecommunications Ministry of Communications & IT Government of India New Delhi

3 The Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) and KPMG, in association with the Department of Telecommunications, are proud to present the report India Telecom 2011 m-powering India. This report focuses on the future of MVAS in India and its role in empowering the nation. These services will digitally transform the nation and help foster inclusive growth. The report highlights the key m-services such as m-banking, m-education, m-governance, m-health, m-agriculture, etc., and draws out their growth drivers and challenges. It also outlines the evolving ecosystem and steps undertaken to create a win-win ecosystem for the stakeholders. The report underlines the key role that equipment manufacturing and infrastructure development will play in making MVAS another exemplary chapter in the successful Indian telecom growth story. The report highlights the investment opportunities and potential in the Indian telecom sector. The report also provides the reader an insight into the evolution of the telecom industry over the last decade. We extend our deep gratitude to the DoT for providing us an opportunity to work with them for the India Telecom 2011 event. Dr. Rajiv Kumar Sean Collins Romal Shetty Jaideep Ghosh Secretary General FICCI Global Chair KPMG Communications and Media Practice Partner and Head,Telecom KPMG in India Partner, Management Consulting KPMG in India

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5 TABLE OF CONTENTS Growing and Empowered India A Macro View 03 The Global Telecom Market USD 2 Trillion and Still Growing 13 The Indian Telecom Market On the Cusp of an Information Revolution 21 Wireless Communication The Key to Connecting India 31 m-powering India Inclusive Growth through the Mobile Phone 41 M-Banking The Killer Application for m-powerment 49 Other Innovative Mobile Services Leading to Empowerment 61 Technology and Infrastructure The Basic Enablers of Empowerment 69 Delivering m-powerment through a Win-Win Ecosystem 75 Telecom Manufacturing Enabling Sustainable Growth 81 Telecom Research and Development 89 Investment Opportunities in the Indian Telecom Sector 93 Regulatory and Policy Environment 101 International Best Practices in Creating Successful m-powerment Services 109 Conclusion 115

6 1 m-powering INDIA - INDIA TELECOM 2011 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY India s incredible growth story is manifested in the country s sustained performance to become the fourthlargest economy in the world by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), after the US, China and Japan. A strong domestic demand and inflow of investments have been the driving factors behind this phenomenal economic growth. Also, while growth in most of the Asian economies, such as China, Thailand and Malaysia, has been driven by the manufacturing sector, growth in India has been driven by the services sector. The vitality of the telecom sector to the country is implicit from its everincreasing contribution to India s GDP (increased to three percent in 2010 from 1.6 percent in 2006). The last decade can be rightly called the decade of the voice revolution. The total telecom subscriber base, including wireless and wireline subscribers, reached million in August 2011 from 41 million in The total teledensity in India reached 74.9 percent in August 2011 a growth of 15.3 percentage points over the preceding year. Even after this strong rise in teledensity, the Indian telecom market is far from saturated. A large part of the country s population base, primarily in the rural areas, still does not have access to quality telecommunications services, and therefore present significant opportunities for growth. The Indian mobile market is still largely a voice market. Data revenue accounted for about 15 percent of the total mobile revenue in March 2011, as against close to 30 percent in China and the UK. However, data is undeniably going to be the key driver of the Indian mobile market in the years to come. The year 2010 was a landmark year in the history of the Indian telecom sector with the auction and allocation of 3G and Broadband Wireless Access (BWA) spectrum blocks. With the advent of better networks, India now stands at the cusp of another revolution the information revolution. Mobile Value Added Services (MVAS) is becoming an integral and indispensible part of the telecom industry value chain. The MVAS market is expected to increase from INR 122 billion in 2010 to INR 482 billion by 2015, driven by the uptake of 3G services in urban as well as in rural areas. It is expected to change the dynamics of the Indian telecom sector by empowering users on one hand and providing significant commercial opportunities for all service providers across the value chain, on the other. Some of the services expected to make an impact on the Indian telecom market are listed here:

7 m-powering INDIA - INDIA TELECOM m-banking m-education m-governance m-health m-agriculture Location-based services (LBS) Machine-to- Machine (M2M) applications The Indian banking sector has grown significantly over the years with strong fundamentals; however, as per estimates from the Reserve Bank of India, about 40 percent of the Indian population still lacks access to formal financial institutions and therefore, is largely unbanked. Mobile phones have the potential to deliver financial services to this unbanked population in the form of m-banking. Driven by progressive banking regulations by the government, m-banking services are picking up in India, with 707,496 m-banking transactions for INR million being reported in February Quality education is crucial to create a skilled workforce and therefore is a pre-requisite to the India growth story. In order to increase the accessibility of the Indian rural population to affordable basic education, the Government of India, along with private education players, has planned to leverage wireless technology and offer m-education services, such as basic education lessons, exam tips and result alerts. Effective governance can increase the country s productivity and therefore its competitiveness. In a country as populous and diverse as India, delivering good governance services can be quite a challenge. Basic governance services delivered through the mobile phone can help governments deliver public services in an inclusive manner. The sheer reach of mobile phones, coupled with the innovative potential of mobile applications, is making m-governance a cornerstone of various state government schemes. India needs to build a robust healthcare system for its growing population. m-health the use of mobile devices in collecting health data, delivering healthcare information to practitioners, researchers and patients, real-time monitoring of patients, and direct provision of care is expected to contribute significantly in providing basic healthcare services to the remotest parts of the country. With over 50 percent of the Indian workforce engaged in agriculture, agricultural growth plays a pivotal role in the overall economic health of the nation. In order to enable faster growth of the agricultural sector, wireless technology can be leveraged to disseminate vital information to farmers. This can include basic information such as weather forecast and crop advisory and also complex machine-to-machine automation services that increase farm productivity. Along with facilitating information access, m-agriculture is also expected to play a prominent role in overcoming infrastructure constraints and supply chain inefficiencies in the agricultural sector. Location-based services delivered through the mobile phone hold significant potential of empowerment. These services use knowledge of the geographical position of a mobile device to generate useful information for the subscriber and the service provider alike. Navigation assistance, emergency or disaster relief, social networking and map assistance are some examples of locationbased services which benefit subscribers. Machine-to-machine (M2M) communication, comprising services such as fleet management, smart metering, agro and irrigation monitoring, etc., have the potential to unleash significant efficiency gains across urban and rural markets cutting across the customer and enterprise segments. Although in a nascent stage in India, these services are expected to form a part of the information revolution of the upcoming decade. Technology and infrastructure are the basic enablers of MVAS. There is a need to work towards creating a collaborative ecosystem comprising all stakeholders regulators, industry players and end users through which the mobile phone can become the preferred platform for promoting socioeconomic development of the country. There is also a need to focus on domestic telecom equipment manufacturing and to invest continuously in R&D to foster innovation. With these prerequisites in place, the digital infrastructure created by the mobile phone can address the various gaps in physical infrastructure and drive inclusive growth.

8 3 m-powering INDIA - INDIA TELECOM 2011 CHAPTER 1 Growing and Empowered India A Macro View

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10 5 m-powering INDIA - INDIA TELECOM 2011 The India growth story India s economic growth has been a tremendous growth story. Driven by the domestic reform measures adopted in the 1980s and the 1990s, India has been on an upward economic growth path for the last three decades. However, a marked acceleration in growth was only witnessed from onward. During the five years preceding the global financial crisis in 2008, India s economy grew at an annual average growth rate of 8.9 percent 1 to become the second-fastest growing economy in the world after China. It is currently the fourth-largest economy in the world by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), after the US, China and Japan. 2 India s capacity for strong economic growth and resilience was best showcased during the global financial meltdown in , when growth plunged to 6.8 percent, only to return to the pre-crisis growth levels within a year. The Indian economy posted a growth of 8 percent and 8.5 percent in the subsequent two years, respectively. Furthermore, in the current fiscal, growth is expected to remain within the range of 8 percent to 8.5 percent, despite inflationary concerns. 3 Average decadal growth of GDP (%) GDP annual growth (%) ( F) Recessionary plunge Quick return Source: CSO, KPMG Analysis 1 CSO, Summary of macro economic aggregates at current prices, to ; KPMG Analysis 2 CIA, World Fact Book, CSO, National Accounts Statistics, Press Releases, May 2011

11 m-powering INDIA - INDIA TELECOM Key growth drivers India s growth story has largely been driven by domestic demand and investment. The gradual but steady liberalisation of government policies since 1991 has created conditions for a sustained investment boom, a buoyant international economic environment and a rapidly expanding services sector. Along with the usual demand side and supply side drivers, India also owes this growth to a certain set of sector-specific drivers, as some sectors, such as the telecom and IT sectors, have distinctly contributed significantly to the country s growth. Demand-side drivers On the demand side, increasing investment has been the principal driver of growth since The contribution of investment to GDP growth was 33.6 percent during to and increased to a remarkably high level of 58 percent during to Accordingly, the investment rate (investment-to-gdp ratio) increased from 27.6 percent in to around 36 percent in Such strong fundamentals have resulted in growing cross-border interest in the country, leading to a growing momentum in FDI inflow from onward. FDI inflow increased from USD 4 billion in to a whopping USD 38.0 billion in Cushioned by the country s growing capital market and an increasingly growing and prosperous consumer segment, FDI inflow showed strong resilience during the global financial crisis of 2008 and continued to increase. India now ranks second in the list of top FDI destinations in the world and the country is expected to retain its position among the top-five attractive destinations for international investors during Components of India s GDP growth (%) Source: CSO, KPMG Analysis 4 CSO, Summary of macro economic aggregates at current prices, to ; KPMG Analysis 5 Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, e Economic Outlook , July RBI, Monthly Bulletin, July UNCTAD, World Investment Prospects Survey , September 2010

12 7 m-powering INDIA - INDIA TELECOM 2011 Rising investment... Investment as a percentage of GDP ( F) Foregin inflows - USD billion ( ) Source: Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, RBI Monthly Bulletin In addition to investment, the other important demand-side driver of growth in India has been private consumption. The contribution of private consumption to GDP growth at 45 percent during to was the second highest after investment. 8 Supply-side drivers The surge in savings has been the principal supply-side driver of growth in India. The investment boom in India has been matched by a concurrent upward movement in domestic savings; gross domestic savings increased from 27.6 percent of GDP in to around 34 percent of GDP in Currently, India has one of the highest national savings ratios in the world (34 percent compared with 23.6 percent in Japan and 9.8 percent in the US). 10 This is expected to increase further as the dependency ratio continues to decline. To illustrate, the dependency ratio in India declined from 0.8 in 1991 to 0.7 in 2001 and is further expected to decline to 0.6 in CSO, Summary of macro economic aggregates at current prices, to ; KPMG Analysis 9 Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, Economic Outlook World Bank, World Development Indicators, September Government of India, Economic Survey,

13 m-powering INDIA - INDIA TELECOM Increasing savings... Savings as a percentage of GDP ( F) Comparison of savings ratio (2011) Source: Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, RBI Monthly Bulletin Sector-specific drivers Unlike other growing Asian economies such as China, Thailand and Malaysia, where growth has been driven by the industrial segment 12, growth in India has been largely driven by the services sector. The share of the overall services sector in India s GDP increased from 44 percent in to 55 percent in , making India a primarily servicesled economy from a traditional agriculture-driven economy. 13 The telecom sector has been a significant growth catalyst for the Indian economy. The contribution of the telecom sector to the GDP has increased from 0.7 percent in to 3.6 percent in There is a direct correlation between telecom penetration and GDP growth. As per a World Bank study, a 10 percent increase in teledensity increases the GDP growth by 0.06 percentage points. 15 Growing importance of the service sector (%) ( ) Source: CSO, KPMG Analysis 12 Edelweiss, India 2020 Report, March CSO, National Accounts Statistics, May 2011; KPMG Analysis 14 Statistical data, CSO, Accessed in August World Bank, Unfinished Business: Mobilizing new efforts to achieve the 2015 millennium development goals, September 2010

14 9 m-powering INDIA - INDIA TELECOM 2011 Contribution of the telecom sector to GDP ( ) Source: CSO, KPMG Analysis * Latest Available Data An empowered India Economic growth has empowered Indians by enabling a better quality of life. India entered the category of lower middle-income countries in 2008 as per the World Bank classification. 16 With growing per capita income, India s burgeoning middle class is taking consumption to levels comparable to that in other emerging and developed economies. Indians are earning more and spending more Per capita income (current USD) Percentage of Indian households in different income brackets India s increasing per capita income Source: Edelweiss Note: Per capita income is Gross National Income (GNI) per capita, Elite category (> INR 1000k), Consuming classes (INR 90k-1000k) and Deprived segment (< INR 90k) based on annual income levels as in year 2000 Increase in income levels has also enabled widespread access to services such as telecom and banking, which have multiplied the empowerment effect. 16 Edelweiss, India 2020 Report, March 2010

15 m-powering INDIA - INDIA TELECOM Telecommunications A key driver of growth Fuelled by the telecommunications revolution of the 2000s, the growth in the Indian telecom sector has been pivotal in accelerating India s socio-economic growth. Increased connectivity and access to various innovative information, communication, and entertainment services have given Indians better control over their lives along with increasing business productivity, better governance, effective security systems and improved response to emergencies. India is among the fastest growing telecommunications markets across the world. It is also the second-largest wireless market in the world after China. The overall telecom penetration in India almost touched 75 percent in August 2011 and the market continues to exhibit unabated growth. 17 Telecom services, especially wireless services, have led to significant empowerment of the urban Indian population. From ubiquitous voice connectivity to accessing sophisticated applications on high-end smart phones and feature phones, the mobile phone has become an ultimate platform of convenience for these consumers. Owing to the sector s potential in creating empowerment, it has attracted the attention of not only enterprises, but also the government. In line with the inclusive model of development, the Government of India (GoI) is aiming to make mobile empowerment inclusive. Wireline telephony being economically unviable in many parts of rural India due to infrastructure constraints, wireless is being looked upon as the primary means of voice connectivity and Internet access in rural India. By offering timely access to critical market information that enable effective response to market changes and improved provision of basic services such as healthcare, education and banking, the mobile phone is truly becoming an effective empowerment platform in rural India. A promising outlook The long-term growth outlook of the Indian economy is positive. For the next few years, the economy is expected to grow at a rapid pace on the back of strong domestic fundamentals. High demographic dividend Demographic dividend is expected to drive India s growth over the next few years. While catering to the demand for Working age population as a percentage of total population Source: UN Population Statistics A skilled and educated workforce The large pool of skilled, Englishspeaking and low-cost workforce has positioned India as a preferred manufacturing, production and outsourcing centre in the world. India has the third-largest higher education system in the world after China and the US. 19 Recognizing the importance 17 TRAI, Telecom Subscription Data, August United Nations, World Population Prospects 2010, Accessed in August 2011 a large worker base, a young population is also expected to play a huge role in driving consumption and investment in the country. The average age in India is currently 25 years and by 2050, 68 percent of its population is expected to be in the working age group (15-64 years); this is in contrast to many countries in the developed world and regional competitors such as China. 18 of skills for sustaining the country s growth momentum, the government is expected to introduce programmes for the provision of vocational training to 500 million workers by A better skilled workforce is expected to boost economic growth through higher employability and productivity. 19 The Hindu, India s open door to foreign universities, April GoI, Press Information Bureau, June 2011

16 11 m-powering INDIA - INDIA TELECOM 2011 Improved infrastructure Increasing infrastructure investment through Public Private Partnerships (PPP) is creating immense growth opportunities by boosting trade and investment and connecting rural India, where close to 70 percent 21 of the Indian population resides. Infrastructure investment ( F) Source: Planning Commission of India Note: Infrastructure includes electricity, roads and bridges, railways, ports, airports, storage, telecom, irrigation, water supply and sanitation, and oil & gas pipelines The gradual liberalisation of the infrastructure sector is further expected to boost investment and trade. Relaxed labour laws and the proposed National Manufacturing Policy are also expected to play a significant role in the growth of the nation. 21 Census of India, Provisional Population Totals, Accessed in August 2011

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18 13 m-powering INDIA - INDIA TELECOM 2011 CHAPTER 2 The Global Telecom Market USD 2 Trillion and Still Growing

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20 15 m-powering INDIA - INDIA TELECOM 2011 Globally, the telecom sector continues to be a key growth sector. Having generated revenues worth USD 2.01 trillion in 2010, it is expected to grow at a moderate pace in Until 2009, the global telecom sector grew across regions, with growth in wireless services offsetting the decline in wireline revenues. However, since 2007, when wireless revenues surpassed wireline revenues, the sluggish growth in mature markets has started impacting overall industry growth. Telecom service providers shelved investment plans, especially as an aftermath of the recent financial crisis, have severely limited the growth potential in these mature markets. Telecom markets in emerging nations, on the other hand, have retained their growth paths. These markets, not yet saturated, are being driven by increasing telecom penetration and concurrent introduction of new technologies and services. Growth stemming from data and mobile device sale Global telecommunications revenues increased 5.5 percent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in 2010 to reach USD 2.01 trillion 1, mainly driven by an increase in revenues from data services and the sale of mobile devices. The revenues are expected to grow at a moderate pace in Moreover, growth is expected to be fuelled by incremental revenues from emerging markets in Asia-Pacific, the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region, and Latin America. Global telecom market revenue by segments ( F) Source: Gartner 1 Gartner, Market Trends: Global Telecommunications Market, May 2011

21 m-powering INDIA - INDIA TELECOM Global telecom market - share of segments (2010) Source: Gartner Telecom services continue to dominate the global telecom market, with the services to equipment revenue ratio exceeding 3:1 in However, this trend is undergoing a change with increasing investment in telecom infrastructure, which is expected to increase further. This is reflected in the fact that the contribution of telecom equipment revenues to total telecom revenues grew 100 basis points in Break-out of global telecom services revenue (2010) (Total revenues = USD 2 trillion) Source: Gartner 2 Gartner, Market Trends: Global Telecommunications Market, May 2011

22 17 m-powering INDIA - INDIA TELECOM 2011 Mobile subscriber base continues to grow Over the last decade, the global telecom subscriber base has grown at a CAGR of 12.4 percent. 3 The continuing growth in wireless subscriptions has been only partly offset by the continuous decline in wireline subscriptions. However, since the last few years, saturated mature markets have arrested this aggressive growth rate to some extent; the yearover-year (YoY) growth of global wireless subscriptions stood at 11.8 percent in 2010 compared with 13.2 percent and 15.8 percent in 2009 and 2008, respectively. 3 Global wireless and wireline subscriptions Source: Economic Intelligence Unit Global wireless and wireline penetration (%) Source: Economic Intelligence Unit 3 Economic Intelligence Unit, Data Tool, Accessed in August 2011

23 m-powering INDIA - INDIA TELECOM Emerging markets to drive wireless growth, witnessing surge in investments In developing countries, wireless subscriptions, often the only means of connectivity due to low wireline penetration, have witnessed strong uptake. In India and China, for instance, monthly net additions have been around million and 8-10 million subscribers, respectively over the last year ending March 2011, with the two nations accounting for around 60 percent of the total subscriber base in the Asia-Pacific. 4 As per Ovum, BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) nations would account for 40.6 percent 5 of the global mobile subscriptions in This growth is expected to be driven by continued competitive pressure on handset prices and tariffs that have made wireless services affordable for mass adoption. While the global recessionary environment in negatively impacted capital spending in developed nations, telecom investments in emerging markets such as India and China continued nearly unabated. Driven by the assurance of significant untapped demand, telecom service providers in these markets have been committing huge investments on expanding network coverage and launching new technology. Moreover, structural subsidies in China and India, and government expenditures have created a favourable investment environment for telecom service providers and equipment manufacturers. Telecom investment in key markets ( ) Source: Economic Intelligence Unit 4 BuddeComm, Asia - Telecom Forecasts, April Ovum, Mobile Connections Forecast: , July 2011

24 19 m-powering INDIA - INDIA TELECOM 2011 Focus on mobile data services to sustain growth Declining ARPU and rising costs are putting pressure on telecom service providers margins across the world. With voice becoming highly commoditised in most markets, both developed and emerging, it is evident that future growth in ARPU will come from increased uptake in data services, or Mobile Value Added Services (MVAS). The strong uptake of smartphones has led to an increase in the demand for applications, and thereby higher adoption of data plans in developed markets. Even in developing markets, data services such as P2P SMS and Caller Ring Back Tones (CBRT) have generated substantial revenues. Globally, in 2010, mobile data accounted for 16 percent 6 of the total telecom services revenue. It is expected that revenues from mobile data will continue to grow strongly, driven by a rise in sales of tablets and other related consumer electronic devices. Service providers are focusing on new MVAS offerings to drive ARPU. In developed markets, high-end services, such as video calling, high-speed mobile Internet, mobile gaming, mobile TV, Global Positioning System (GPS), mobile money, etc. are gaining popularity. In developing countries, on the other hand, more utilitarian services such as mobile banking, mobile healthcare, mobile education, etc. are being developed and deployed. Globally, mobile data revenues are expected to account for 29.3 percent of total revenues in Global wireless ARPU comparison (2010) Source: Economic Intelligence Unit database, KPMG Analysis Mobile payments a killer application in developing markets Mobile payment services, particularly mobile banking, are emerging to be the perfect solution to address the banking needs of the world s large unbanked population base. Gartner projects the number of mobile payment users globally to surpass million in 2011 and mobile payments volume to cross USD 86 billion, a growth of 75.9 percent over 2010 (USD 48.9 billion). 7 The growth in transaction volumes is expected to be driven mostly by money transfers and prepaid topups in developing markets. That said, service providers in these markets have not quite adopted global success models from countries such as Kenya and the Philippines, on the belief that these models may not be suitable for their markets. As per KPMG s Mobile Payments Outlook 2011, business leaders globally view security as the main challenge in developing and deploying mobile payments strategies. 6 Gartner, Market Trends: Global Telecommunications Market, May Gartner, Worldwide Mobile Payment Users to Reach 141 Million in 2011, July 2011