Consumer Products 2010: Insights for the Future in Asia

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1 Consumer Products 2010: Insights for the Future in Asia Patrick Medley, Distribution Sector Leader, Asia Pacific IBM Business Consulting Services 2005 IBM Corporation

2 Agenda for today s discussion 2010 mega-trends : the Asia perspective Strategic imperatives for the new Asia Paving the way 2

3 Asia is a world of extremes both within and between countries.. 3

4 We have identified seven factors that will shape the growth of the Consumer Products industry in Asia 2010 Mega-Trends for Asia IBM s Vision A World of Extremes 1 2 Consumer value drivers fragment Urban and rural divide continues Consumers Industry Competition Business Operations Gatekeepers become more guarded Information exposes all Mega-retailers break the boundaries Sophisticated urban shoppers with multiple personal value drivers Rural populations continue to seek low-cost solutions Dominance of mega s retailers, suppliers, brands Proliferation of focused specialists Slow demise of undifferentiated, mid-tier competitors Responsive structures mirror market morphing Information provides market insights Global and local enterprises and value networks 6 7 Industries reshape into flexible value networks Markets restructure Trends affecting Consumer Demand Trends affecting Consumer Supply Additional Key Drivers in Asia 4

5 Consumer value drivers are fragmenting as a result of changing demographics and value systems 1 Consumer Value Drivers Fragment % of population 20 th Century Homogenous Consumers Consumer Segments Extreme shifts in: Age Wealth Ethnicity/Culture Lifestage patterns Household composition Value Systems % of population 21 st Century Fragmented Consumers Consumer Segments 5

6 While urban centres are expanding, the rural population will still continue to be a significant demographic factor 2 Urban and Rural Divide Continues 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% ASEAN China India Japan Korea Percentage Increase in Urban Population from 2000 to 2030 Source : World Bank, 2005, 6

7 Urban and Rural Drivers 2 Urban and Rural Divide Continues Urban drivers Increasing rate of urbanisation Emerging middle classes Increasing economic prosperity Commercial and communications infrastructure New generation rapidly learning super shopper behaviours Competition from leading global manufacturers and retailers Rural drivers Approximately 61% of the Asian population are currently rural this should fall to 46% by 2010 Relative economic weakness Limited access to education Lack of infrastructure Commercial environment shaped by regulation - limited to local players in some areas (eg retail in India) 7

8 Consumers will seek greater control over their interactions with businesses 3 Gatekeepers Become More Guarded Blocking Out, Shutting Down Overexposed and confused Ignoring low-value messages Blocking unsolicited communications Taking Charge Asserting control over use of personal data Setting a high bar on trust Leveraging technology and regulation Marketing tactics must focus more on influencing behavior at the point of purchase. Trust in the brand becomes a precious, irreplaceable asset. 8

9 Consumers become super-shoppers, accessing information whenever and wherever they want it 4 Information Exposes All Netizens & Bloggers Key Enablers Ubiquitous networking Next-generation mobile devices Advanced infomediaries 3-G Communications Mobile Phone Wireless, W-FI, Broadband DSL, ADSL Companies must counter commoditization by emphasizing new and proprietary offerings, and adapting marketing tactics. 9

10 Top retailers expand rapidly across categories and geographies, accelerating competitive Darwinism 5 Mega-Retailers Break the Boundaries New geographies New formats Mega-retailers are dictating the terms of trade for CP companies Mega- Retailers Competing retailers will enlist suppliers to help them differentiate New categories New price positioning Source: IBM Institute for Business Value analysis 10

11 Companies are re-thinking their business models and building agile networks of partners 56 Industries Reshape into Flexible Value Networks CONSUMERS Consumer Brands Retailers Producers (eg manufacturing) Service Providers (eg maintenance, financial, installation) Universal connectivity ENABLERS Source: IBM Institute for Business Value analysis Brokers and Aggregators Data and systems integration Open industry standards Functional Specialists (eg HR, logistics, data analytics, IT, etc) Partner capabilities Credit system Cultural compatibility Successful value network managers will assume market leadership by responding quickly to both enabler developments and shifting consumer demand 11

12 All Asian markets are in a period of structural change and economic development CP industry regulations 7 Markets Restructure Asia 2010 Fragmented and complex supply chains Market consolidation Asia today Urban and rural Economic conditions Continuous and discontinuous change Consumer value drivers fragment Structural change Like North American and European markets, Asian markets and consumers are changing behaviour In addition, Asian markets are also changing structurally driven by consolidation and regulation 12

13 Asia is a heterogeneous region with diverse consumer values creating a polarised market Polarization in the Consumer Marketplace Bell Curves Growth Undifferentiated competitors fade into irrelevance Mass Well Curves Consumers maximize buying power Mega-players capture dominant market share Price & Competitive Positioning Highly focused, relevant value propositions are essential to grow in a world of extremes Targeted Consumers maximize personal value Differentiated specialists build profitable, high-growth niches. 13

14 But, speed of change towards a polarised market and modern channels varies between and within regions Mature The 2010 consumer: Urban China, Korea, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan. Emerging Continued focus on low-cost: Rural China, India and ASEAN Bell Curve Bell Curve Growth Growth Well Curve Well Curve mass Price Positioning targeted mass Price Positioning targeted 14

15 Agenda for today s discussion 2010 mega-trends : the Asia perspective Strategic imperatives for the new Asia Paving the way 15

16 The world of extremes offers tremendous challenges and opportunities in Asia Consumers Sophisticated urban shoppers with multiple personal value drivers Rural populations continue to seek low-cost solutions Retailers Dominance of mega s retailers, suppliers, brands Proliferation of focused specialists Slow demise of undifferentiated, midtier competitors Consumer Products Companies Integration and consolidation of markets and supply chains Focused organisations, responsive to markets and consumers Global vs local and urban vs rural operational complexity Strong competition between global, local and retailer brands Mid-tier brands squeezed out CP industry deregulation and restructuring 16

17 Strategic imperatives vary from market to market Mature Asian markets require consumer companies to execute strategic imperatives similar to their global counterparts 1 Deliver insightdriven Analyze all data sources innovation Accelerate time-to-market and revenue growth 2 3 Sell more through superior service Build fit for purpose supply chains Gain preferred supplier status through value-added services Transform customer management Tailor supply chain networks to deliver innovation 4 Focus your organisation on differentiators Identify opportunities to focus and to manage nondifferentiating tasks 1. New Product Development 17

18 And one size does not fit all There are two strategies for two different market models Mature Markets Emerging Markets Characteristics Large urban population Modern channels of trade Established middle and upper class, though they be only a small percentage of the population Developed infrastructure e.g. information technology and telecommunications Characteristics Large rural population although urban population is growing and migration to urban centres is accelerating Large emerging urban middle class Greater ratios of younger consumers Traditional channels of trade Developing infrastructure e.g. information technology and telecommunications Japan, Korea some cities in China and some parts of ASEAN (Singapore, Malaysia) Rural China, India, Some parts of ASEAN (Vietnam, Myanmar) 18

19 Strategic imperatives for the new Asia Consumer companies operating in emerging Asia execute on the strategic imperatives to suit market conditions 1 Adapt current strategy: think globally, operate locally Enable innovation through localised consumer insights Innovate products and respond to consumers 2 Drive product performance at retail and develop your organizational competencies Drive strong customer management competencies 3 Build supply chain as a competitive edge (rather than just Build fit for purpose supply chains lowest cost) especially in large geographic, low density markets to increase product availability 4 Increase organisational agility to successfully adapt to different markets Ask which non-differentiating components you should find an external partner to perform 19

20 Strategic imperatives for the new Asia 1 Enable innovation through localised consumer insights Infuse deep insights to innovate new products and services appropriate for each market in Asia Take advantage of new sources of data Understand consumer behavior at a deeper level CP Company Convenience Refreshment Self-Expression Consumer Data Shopper Data POS Data RFID Data Replenishment Need Category Entertainment Value System Purchasing Occasion 20

21 Strategic imperatives for the new Asia 2 Drive strong customer management competencies Develop strong services competencies to drive product performance at retail Account-Specific Services Product innovation Merchandising and category management Shopper-targeted promotions Price optimization Shopper insights Consumer Company Enhanced consumer information Key Benefits Greater differentiation Retailer Data Sharing Data synchronization/ information exchange POS and marketing effectiveness Inventory and forecasting Source: IBM Institute for Business Value 21

22 Strategic imperatives for the new Asia 2 Drive strong customer management competencies Develop strong services competencies to drive product performance at retail Deliver account-specific value via new services capabilities New Organizational Capabilities Integrated and virtual account teams Insight-driven culture Customer business development skills Consumer Company New Process Capabilities Integrated data analytics where sophistication of infrastructure permits Automation of non-valueadded activities and tasks, where appropriate Ownership of customer profitability Source: IBM Institute for Business Value 22

23 Strategic imperatives for the new Asia 3 Build fit for purpose supply chains Build fit for purpose manufacturing and supply chain capabilities Tailor supply chain networks to match divergent business needs Growth Predictable, Value-Driven Consumer Demand Highly Variable, Diversity of Drivers Mass Value Meet the core needs of the retailer and the consumer Provide consistency and resiliency at the lowest possible cost One size fits all supply chains will not adequately serve the needs of different product categories and retail customers. Sense and Respond Maximize flexibility and responsiveness to variable demand Provide a high level of service and innovation, earning a premium 23

24 Strategic imperatives for the new Asia 4 Increase organisational agility to successfully adapt to different markets Re-aligning the organisation, focus on key differentiators and determine how to respond to customer needs Determine what s truly differentiating and extend those capabilities Differentiators: Increase investment and focus Non-differentiators: Identify most efficient route for managing Insight to Innovation Customer & Channel Management Supply Chain People & Performance Finance & Accounting Technology and re-align the organization in line with the new focus Organization and Legal Structure Physical and Intellectual Assets Culture, Climate and Capabilities Business Operating Model Value Network and Alliances Processes and Technology Decision Making and Information 24

25 Agenda for today s discussion 2010 mega-trends : the Asia perspective Strategic imperatives for the new Asia Paving the way 25

26 Paving the way While many recognize the new requirements, effective execution remains the central challenge Executing on the plan Where is your organization today? Have a clear, focused vision on how to respond Recognize the coming challenges Are you executing to lead? Stuck in traditional way of doing business 26

27 Paving the way Focus on what really matters Understand your true position (competitors, customers and consumers) Prioritize your true differentiators Anticipate market structure changes Develop a clear change agenda Drive growth by accelerating effectiveness of differentiating capabilities Reduce costs and free up capital by offloading non-differentiating activities Executing to Lead Go deep to mobilize the organization Drive change at the lowest level Ensure all aspects of the business operating model evolve in sync Make leading and managing responsive change a core competency 27

28 Planning for 2010 Key Questions What implications does the shift from bell curves to well curves hold for your company? Where will you find the insights to enable innovation? How capable is your organization to implement best practice customer management initiatives? Does your supply chain offer a competitive edge or lowest cost? What are the non-differentiating components of your business? 28

29 Paving the way Executing to Lead in a World of Extremes Collaborative and profitable trade relationships Market leadership High consumer satisfaction and loyalty Your Company: Ready now for 2010? Consistent top-line growth Exceptionally strong brands Sustained market value growth Superior operational efficiency 29

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