Arbitron October 2011 Client Briefing. October 13, 2011

Transcription

1 Arbitron October 2011 Client Briefing October 13, 2011

2 Disclosures Forward Looking Statements: Statements made in this presentation that are not historical in nature, particularly regarding expected performance in 2011 and future years, are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on our current expectations and assumptions, and involve various risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Important factors known by the company that could cause such material differences include those referenced or discussed from time to time in our filings with the SEC, including those referenced under the heading ITEM 1A Risk Factors in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2010 and elsewhere, and any subsequent periodic or current reports filed by us with the SEC. In addition, any forward-looking statements contained in this presentation represent our estimates only as of the date hereof and should not be relied upon as representing our estimates as of any subsequent date. While we may elect to update forward-looking statements at some point in the future, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so, even if our estimates change. PPM ratings are based on audience estimates and are the opinion of Arbitron and should not be relied on for precise accuracy or precise representativeness of a demographic or radio market. 2

3 We Want Your Feedback»Please enter your question in the Questions box on your screen and press the send button»we will cover your questions after the review of the sample performance and data insights 3

4 What We Will Cover Today» Diary Quality Initiatives and Project Leapfrog» Update on 2011 PPM panel quality initiatives» Census 2010 update» Newly released Radio Today studies» Highlights of two industry studies: The Road Ahead: Media and Entertainment in the Car The Impact of Combining Local TV and Radio on Advertising: Entravision and Arbitron» Radio: On Air. Online. On Target.» The Arbitron Client Conference/Jacobs Media Summit» Software updates: TAPSCAN Web, Get-a-GRiP, PD Advantage Web 4

5 Diary Quality Initiatives and Project Leapfrog

6 Project Leapfrog Goals and Objectives»Find opportunities to increase service value in small and medium sized markets»evolve measurement process to remain relevant with changing technological and social trends»project Leapfrog is an experimental approach to evolve a service which achieves these goals and objectives 6

7 Project Leapfrog Brief History»Project conceptualized in 2008/2009 and initiated in 2010»Feedback from the RAC and Small Market Operator s Caucus helped shape the idea»first test was a proof of concept pilot which focused exclusively on registration»green light for additional Research and Development based upon the results of that test 7

8 Project Leapfrog How it s Designed to Work Invite via postcard/mail to web site Encourage to participate via Web Socio-economic data (can include local retail) Diary for those who choose not to participate via Web X I can t do the survey online, but I want my opinion to count. Please send a listening diary to the address on the back of this card. Arbitron Inc Patuxent Woods Drive Columbia, MD

9 Project Leapfrog 2011 Testing and Development»Totally new Web/mobile data collection interface Designed using a consultant with substantial consumer Web design experience»enhanced contact and registration process Input from outside consultants with expertise in direct mail Tested different packaging approaches»pre-alerts added»large-scale field test conducted May through June»Initial top-line findings complete Further analysis ongoing Listening impact analysis in process 9

10 Project Leapfrog Pilot 2 Update Scope of the Test Tested in 5 markets with varied geographies and sizes Several thousand invites Evaluated multiple packaging and solicitation approaches Registration Improved registration compared with the 2010 initial pilot Survey Instrument A high proportion of registrants completed the online diary Tested mobile interface for the first time Paper diaries for those who did not choose to participate online Sample representation Proportionality for and 55+ both move closer to 100 Working on ethnic representation Want to get more HH members to participate 10

11 Project Leapfrog - Summary»Arbitron is highly committed to evolving measurement in Diary markets»it's a learning process and experimental and there will be changes»pilot 2 was a success in terms of learning and identifying things we need to focus on; Positive results on several performance metrics Yielded valuable information on areas where work is still needed»continued work on Leapfrog planned for 2012»Still too early to talk about implementation dates 11

12 Cell Phone Sample Increase for Fall 2011»Cell phone sample increase to 20% average in Fall 2011 Additional points will be allocated where historical P18-34 performance has been lowest, and P18-34 composition of cell phone frame has been highest (relative to landline) Screener survey process to support this increase has begun About 40% of markets will receive additional cell phone sample allocation; no markets decline 12

13 Promised Incentive Expansion - Fall 2011»Promised Incentives for P18-34 planned in four book markets in Fall 2011 Promised Incentives are higher premiums paid upon receipt of completed diaries at Arbitron in place of up-front cash All two book markets currently receive young adult promised incentive Markets are broken into two groups for Promised Incentive administration: Households that contain P18-34 only Households that include P18-34 and other demos 13

14 Digital Radio Reporting»Audience estimates for any HD-multicast station or radio station Internet stream that meets minimum reporting standards»beginning with Summer 2011 survey for local market services; Fall 2011 for national services»roster of commercial stations eligible for reporting now the same in Diary- and PPM-measured markets»since digital station listening already included Persons Using Radio estimates, share estimates are not expected to be affected 14

15 Diary Market Sample Initiatives Summary Initiatives Spring 2008 Fall 2008 Spring 2009 Fall 2009 Spring 2010 Fall 2011 Cell Phone Sampling Introduced in 151 Markets All Diary Markets in 50 states 70% increase in Cell Phone Increase CP sample target to 20% 10% sample target 10% sample target 17% sample target Second Chance Diary In all Four-Book Markets Young Adult Promised Incentive In Book Markets for men Expanded to Book Markets Retained in Book Markets Retained in Book Markets Expanded to both men AND women in Book Markets Expanded to 4 book markets (already in 2 book markets) Benchmarks P18-54 Benchmark Introduced Redirect cash from homes with only 55+ to boost sample P18-34 Benchmark Introduced Redirect cash from homes with only 55+ to boost sample Benchmark Increased 15

16 PPM Panel Quality Initiatives

17 Finer Level of Geographic Control» New geographies (Geo-Zones) are now in place in all PPM markets GeoZones are clusters of zip codes nested within a sampling unit» Implementation schedule March Geographic zones added in High Density Black and Hispanic areas August Geographic zones added in remaining areas» Designed to help further improve geographic representation Aid in selecting and managing sample at a more discrete level Weighting and reporting to continue using existing sampling unit 17

18 Finer Level Of Geographic Control Example for Wayne County in Detroit Before: Two sample units (Wayne HDBA and Wayne Balance) After: Two sample units (same as before) New: each divided into 5 separate Geo-Zones Wayne HDBA = green Wayne Balance = blue Wayne HDBA = green/gold shaded zones Wayne Balance = pink/purple/red shaded zones 18

19 Transition to Address-Based Sample» Designed to help improve the representation of households in the panel If we can match the address to a phone number, we will continue to call the household to participate Otherwise, we will send a survey to the household to begin the recruitment process» On average, approximately one quarter of our current sample comes from an Address-based Sample frame» Implementation schedule August 2011: Selection and enumeration of new addressbased sample began December 2011: New addressedbased sample available for recruitment Note - already selected telephonebased sample will continue to remain in the sample until expiration 19

20 In-Person Recruitment» Targeted to recruit households we cannot reach on a landline phone - including younger panelists and minorities» Recruiting those who do not return a screener survey from Address-based Frame» Implementation began in 2010 in the High Density Black and Hispanic areas in approximately half of the PPM Markets 20

21 In-Person Recruitment»July - December 2010: Implemented in High Density Areas of approximately half of the PPM Markets»August 2011: Expand to HDAs of 3 new markets: Columbus, West Palm Beach and Orlando»September 2011: Expand to remaining geographies in existing IPR markets (the non-hda portion)»october - December 2011: Complete rollout to all geographic areas in all 48 PPM Markets 21

22 PPM 360 Update» The new PPM 360-enabled meter Allows for mobile data retrieval Easier to set up, use and charge Sleeker, smaller design Text screen for communication and reinforcement» Evaluation period began in August Augments extensive testing previously conducted including code detection tests, field tests, and cellular coverage tests Designed to confirm the technical performance of PPM 360 technology within the syndicated service prior to providing it for all new households No more than 6% of panelist households expected to have their equipment replaced during the evaluation period 22

23 Census: What s Going to Happen In Fall/October

24 What s Happening in Fall/October»2010-based Census data projected to January 1, 2012, in use for the Claritas Fall/October 2011 Population Estimates Updates Specifically: Total Persons 0+ and Black and Hispanic Persons based Census Age/Sex data available January/Winter 2012»New Market Rankings based on these Fall/October updates Also based on several Diary market definitions changes 24

25 2010-based Census Data Projected to January 1, 2012»Arbitron s population estimates are updated every year Limited impact on Arbitron ratings in most markets Most decade-to-decade population shifts have been accounted for»most markets show little change in total persons estimates from Fall 2010 to Fall 2011 Age/sex by race/ethnicity estimates for Fall/October weighting will use 2000-based Census data»most markets have very similar black and Hispanic 18+ population percentages to previous years Should be limited population-driven impacts on black and/or Hispanic Arbitron ratings 25

26 PPM: New Full Time Employment Data Source»Original source for Arbitron s PPM Full Time employment data was Census 2000 The employment question moved to the American Community Survey and not included in 2010 census Employment data from American Community Survey not fresh enough for Arbitron metro area»new source is Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey Will use a 12-month rolling average of adults (18+) usually employed FT and the total number of adults Employment estimates will continue to be prepared by Claritas»Benefit: More up to date Full Time employment estimates 26

27 What s Next»2010-based Census Age/Sex population estimates from Claritas will soon be received Weighting based on 2010-based Age/Sex updates effective Winter/January (and Spring 2012 for two book diary markets)»updated Language Usage Pop Estimates for December/Winter»Newly qualifying Differential Survey Treatment markets for Spring/April»Download an update on key population changes in your market from my.arbitron.com before October (PPM) / Fall (Diary) data release 27

28 Support for Radio and Industry Studies

29 Radio Today 2011» Annual snapshots of Radio consumption for over twenty years» National tracking of radio s audience size, time-spent-listening, hour-by-hour audience and much more» Exclusive format-specific listening analysis and trends» Main version plus targeted versions for Black, Hispanic, Public Radio, Network Radio and Puerto Rico» Most popular of Arbitron studies: 28,425 downloads in 2010 by radio, agencies, advertisers, financial analysts, media analysts, reporters, and students Free copy at: 29

30 Radio Today: By The Numbers»Quarterly Update Spotlights Radio s vitality»simple and easy to read»coming soon! 30

31 The Road Ahead Media and Entertainment in the Car Free copy:

32 Radio Dominated a Simpler In-Car Landscape in 2003 % Using Device In Primary Car (2003) AM/FM Radio CD Player Cell Phone GPS System ipod/mp3 Player Cassette Player DVD Player Satellite Radio Pandora Stream via Cell/Mobile Device- Built-In Hard Drive- AM/FM Stream via Cell/Mobile Device- - GM OnStar - HD Radio- Non-Pandora Stream via Cell/Mobile Device- Ford Sync- 3% 3% 6% 1% 44% 47% 56% 96% Practically new in 2003 /Edison Research/Scarborough Research Slide 32 Base: Driven/Ridden In a Car in Last Month

33 Radio Remains the King of In-Car Media in 2011 % Using Device In Primary Car (2011) AM/FM Radio CD Player Cell Phone GPS System ipod/mp3 Player Cassette Player DVD Player Audio Books Satellite Radio Pandora Stream via Cell/Mobile Device- Built-In Hard Drive- AM/FM Stream via Cell/Mobile Device - - GM OnStar - HD Radio - Non-Pandora Stream via Cell/Mobile Device- Ford Sync- 11% 11% 9% 8% 6% 5% 4% 4% 2% 2% 1% 24% 36% 50% 68% 84% /Edison Research/Scarborough Research Slide 33 Base: Driven/Ridden In a Car in Last Month

34 Radio Remains the King of In-Car Media in 2011 % Using Device In Primary Car (2011) AM/FM Radio CD Player Cell Phone GPS System ipod/mp3 Player Cassette Player DVD Player Audio Books Satellite Radio Pandora Stream via Cell/Mobile Device Built-In Hard Drive AM/FM Stream via Cell/Mobile Device GM OnStar HD Radio Non-Pandora Stream via Cell/Mobile Device Ford Sync 11% 11% 9% 8% 6% 5% 4% 4% 2% 2% 1% 24% 84% 68% 50% 36% Did not exist in 2003 /Edison Research/Scarborough Research Slide 34 Base: Driven/Ridden In a Car in Last Month

35 In-Car Listeners Spend Nearly Twice the Time With Radio vs. Other Audio Devices Combined Think about the time you spend in your primary car. What percent of the time would you say you listen to HD Radio 1% SiriusXM 5% Built-in Hard Drive 1% Digital audio using ipod/cell phone 8% AM/FM Radio 64% CD Player 21% /Edison Research/Scarborough Research Slide 35 Base: Use at Least One Audio Device In-Car Average Self Reported Share of Time In-Car

36 Radio Reaches the Most Consumers Right Before They Buy % Who Used Medium Within 30 Minutes of Last Purchase Listen to Radio 53% See advertising on a billboard Watch TV 28% 35% Use the Internet Read or look in a newspaper Read or look in a magazine 15% 12% 19% /Edison Research/Scarborough Research Slide 36 Base: Bought something at supermarket, department store, or any other type of store in past 24 hours

37 Majority Interested In Many In-Car Telematics Features % Somewhat or Very Interested in New In-Car Features page 1 Accident response feature 32% 37% 69% Stolen vehicle recovery system 28% 39% 67% Parked vehicle tampering notification 29% 36% 64% Remote door unlocking in case of lost keys or locked in car 29% 34% 63% Built-In vehicle diagnostic/maintenance reporting system 28% 23% 51% Live operator assistance 28% 23% 51% Upload driving data for insurance discount 22% 28% 50% Somewhat Interested Very Interested /Edison Research/Scarborough Research Slide 37 Base: Driven/Ridden In a Car in Last Month

38 The Impact of Combining Local Radio and TV on Advertising Free copy:

39 Background» Entravision (EVC) owns and operates television and radio stations in the Denver market Univision Television Telefutura TV KXPK-FM KJMN-FM KMXA-AM» In 2010, Entravision and Arbitron partnered to conduct a single-source television and radio measurement pilot utilizing Arbitron s Portable People Meter (PPM) solution in Denver 39

40 EVC Radio and TV Follow Users Throughout Their Day Radio vs. TV Share of EVC Hispanic A18-49 Impressions 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% EVC TV EVC Radio Source: Arbitron PPM Cross Platform custom report, August 19, September 15, 2010, Hispanic Adults 18-49, Mon-Sun 6AM-6AMf 40

41 Each Medium Has Exclusive Audience Radio and TV Cume Radio Exclusive Radio Audience 12% 88% Also Watches TV Television Audience 78% TV Exclusive 22% Also Listens to Radio This gives the cross-platform use of radio and TV the capability of increasing advertiser s reach Source: Arbitron PPM Cross Platform custom report, August 19, September 15, 2010, Hispanic Adults 18-49, Mon-Sun 6AM-6AM 41

42 Adding Radio to TV Delivers Near-Prime Time Levels All Day Long Added La Tri Color Reach When Combined with UNV-TV % Hispanic A18-49 Morning M-F 6a-10a Daytime M-F 10a-5p Early Fringe M-F 5p-6p Prime Time M-F 6p-10p Weekend PM Sa-Su 1p-7p HOW TO READ: Add another 20.1 Hispanic A18-49 reach points to Univision TV s M-F 5P-6P reach, when including La Tri Color M-F 3P-7P Source: Arbitron PPM Cross Platform custom report. August 19, September 15,

43 Conclusions» Radio and TV together Can bring advertisers prime-time audience levels throughout the entire day Increases both reach and frequency Are more powerful in combination than either media is alone» To better meet the objectives of their advertisers, Entravision confirmed that they should be selling their Radio and TV properties in combination 43

44 Radio: On Air. Online. On Target.» Radio landscape presentation Developed in collaboration with Katz and the RAB Targets agency planners to provide uniform message about Radio s value» Available via Webinar Free live-web training at arbitrontraining.com Local broadcast associations Debuted at June 2011 Chicago Broadcaster Association Similar programs being planned Next session: Tuesday, October 25, 2011 Time: 3p ET/2p CT/1p MT/12n PT Sign up: 44

45 Coming in December 6-8, 2011 Arbitron Client Conference Mike Sheehan, CEO of Hill Holliday Michael Smerconish, nationally syndicated talk show host David Lebow, President of Revenue at Group Commerce and former radio executive will talk about radio and the importance of social commerce Jay Stevens, Radio One Sr. VP/Programming Content will host the annual Urban PD Clinic Moms and Media and new findings from The Road Ahead: Media and Entertainment in the Car Edison Research Jacobs Media Summit Ed Schultz, host of The Ed Schultz show on radio and TV Brooke Gladstone, co-host and Managing Editor of NPR On the Media Dr. Robert Groves, Director of the U.S. Census Bureau Jim Farley VP News and Programming of trendsetting WTOP-FM Washington Register now: For On-Site and On-Line Sponsorships Contact Brooke Trissel at (512) or 45

46 Software Update

47 Software News» Auto Downloader: October 7th Will make it more convenient to download and install data» PPM Analysis Tool with RLD Weeklies: October 14 More granular reporting for weekly data (e.g. more demos, geos, dayparts) Requires PPM Respondent Level Data Access, Weeklies and PPM Analysis Tool subscriptions No change to Summary Data Set Weeklies service 47

48 Weeklies Summary Data Provides a Top Line View of Week-to-Week Changes The Edge becomes WMAL-FM News Simulcast on 9/19 AQH Share, Men Sept. wk 1 Sept. wk 2 Sept. wk 3 Sept. wk 4 Oct. wk 1 PPM Washington DC Metro, Weeklies Summary Data, M-SU 6A-12Mid, Men 35+ Share for WMAL-FM 48

49 Analysis Tool RLD Weeklies Provides a More Detailed View Much Sooner The Edge becomes WMAL-FM News Simulcast on 9/19 AQH Share, Men 35+ October week one Analysis Tool/RLD/ Weekly subscribers can now see day-by-day ratings the following week /01/11 9/02/11 9/03/11 9/04/11 9/05/11 9/06/11 9/07/11 9/08/11 9/09/11 9/10/11 9/11/11 9/12/11 9/13/11 9/14/11 9/15/11 9/16/11 9/17/11 9/18/11 9/19/11 9/20//11 9/21/11 PPM Washington DC Metro, Analysis Tool RLD Weeklies, day-by-day Men 35+ Share for WMAL-FM 49

50 Software News»Proposal XML in Tapscan Web»Tapscan Web 11.0 beta: Planned for November Major update in scheduler Incorporating client feedback on research reports Available to all Tapscan Web subscribers»get-a-grip 2.0: Planned for late October SQAD data available for SQAD subscribers Displays only advertisers that are active in given market»pda Web 5.0: Scheduled for Q Goals report: run what-if scenarios Enhancements to Audience Sharing and Audience Tracking reports 50

51 Feedback and Questions»If we don t answer your question on the call today we will get back to you via »download this presentation at my.arbitron.com 51