Société Générale Outlook Revised To Stable And 'A/A-1' Ratings Affirmed On Government Support And ALAC Review
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1 Research Update: Société Générale Outlook Revised To Stable And 'A/A-1' Ratings Affirmed On Government Support And ALAC Review Primary Credit Analyst: Francois Moneger, Paris (33) ; Secondary Contact: Sylvie Dalmaz, PhD, Paris (33) ; Table Of Contents Overview Rating Action Rationale Outlook Ratings Score Snapshot Related Criteria And Research Ratings List DECEMBER 3,
2 Research Update: Société Générale Outlook Revised To Stable And 'A/A-1' Ratings Affirmed On Government Support And ALAC Review Overview We believe the prospect of extraordinary government support for French banks is now uncertain in view of the country's well-advanced and effective resolution regime. We are therefore removing the notch of uplift for government support that we had previously incorporated in the long-term counterparty credit rating on Société Générale. However, we now include one notch in our long-term ratings on Société Générale because we consider that the group will build substantial additional loss-absorbing capacity (ALAC). We are therefore revising our outlook on Société Générale and its core banking subsidiaries to stable from negative and affirming our long- and short-term counterparty credit ratings at 'A/A-1'. At the same time, we are downgrading the core insurance subsidiary Sogécap to 'A-' from 'A' because we expect that the French resolution framework will exclude insurance activities from the bail-in process, and consequently we now equalize the ratings on Sogécap with Société Générale's stand-alone credit profile. The stable outlook notably reflects our expectation that the group will steadily grow its loss absorption capacities. Rating Action As previously announced on Dec. 2, 2015, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services has revised its outlook to stable from negative on France-based Société Générale and core subsidiaries Crédit du Nord S.A. (including its regional banks), Franfinance, Komercni Banka A.S., SG Americas Securities LLC, and Société Générale Bank & Trust. We affirmed our 'A/A-1' long- and short-term counterparty credit ratings on these entities. At the same time, we lowered our long-term counterparty credit and insurer financial strength ratings on insurance subsidiary Sogécap S.A. to 'A-' from 'A'. The outlook is stable. Please see "Ratings List" for details of rating actions on Société Générale's subsidiaries. DECEMBER 3,
3 Rationale We believe that the prospect of extraordinary government support for the French banking sector is now uncertain following the expected full implementation of the EU Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive, including bail-in powers, from Jan. 1, We do not completely exclude the possibility of such support and we consider that systemically important French institutions such as Société Générale face several more years of structural and balance sheet reforms to address their "resolvability" (mitigating the systemic impact if they fail). Nevertheless, we believe the French government's ability and willingness to provide support is lower and less predictable under the enhanced resolution framework. We have therefore reclassified the tendency of France to support private sector commercial banks as "uncertain" under our criteria, and removed the notch that we previously included for government support in the long-term counterparty credit rating on Société Générale. We have added one notch of uplift within our group credit profile (GCP) for Société Générale, and so within the long-term ratings on Société Générale and its core banking subsidiaries, because we consider that the Société Générale group is likely to increase and maintain additional loss-absorbing capacity (ALAC) above our 5.00% threshold. We view the French resolution regime as "effective" under our ALAC criteria because, among other factors, we believe it contains a well-defined bail-in process under which authorities would permit nonviable systemically important banks to continue critical functions as going concerns following a bail-in of eligible liabilities. We include in our ALAC assessment all capital instruments issued by Société Générale because we believe they have capacity to absorb losses without triggering a default on the bank's senior obligations and they meet our other criteria for inclusion. Conversely, consistent with our view that insurance activities would not be in the scope of the bail-in process, we did not include in our assessment the 800 million in subordinated debt issued by Sogécap. On this basis, we calculate that ALAC was 2.9% of Standard & Poor's risk-weighted assets at year-end We expect that this ALAC ratio will increase steadily into the 5.5%-6.0% range by end-2018, and hence will be above the 5.00% threshold for Société Générale that we consider necessary for one notch of uplift. Although we expect that Société Générale will reach this threshold by end-2017, we extended our projection period to four years because we believe France is in an extended regulatory transition period in which banks will progressively build larger buffers of loss-absorbing capacity. This reflects our expectation that Société Générale will gradually replace maturing capital instruments, and that future regulatory requirements will lead it to steadily increase its existing buffer of loss-absorbing capacity. We use two adjustments for the threshold, which cancel each other out. We qualitatively adjusted the threshold by -25 basis points (bps) for the group's insurance operations, which we expect would be outside the scope of required bail-in capitalization. (For the record, insurance activities represented DECEMBER 3,
4 close to 10% of our calculation of risk-weighted assets at end-2014.) Conversely, we also adjusted the threshold by +25 bps to reflect the prepositioning risk, as defined by our criteria. As a result of the above, we have affirmed our long-term rating on Société Générale at 'A', which now includes ALAC support instead of government support. We also affirmed our ratings on all core banking subsidiaries (which excludes Sogécap), as we believe that the extraordinary external support provided by the group's ALAC would extend to these subsidiaries. We lowered our long-term counterparty credit and insurer financial strength ratings on insurance subsidiary Sogécap to 'A-' from 'A'. This reflects our view that the French resolution framework will exclude insurance activities from the bail-in process. For that reason, we equalize the ratings on Sogécap with Société Générale's stand-alone credit profile (SACP). We continue to see Sogécap as a core entity to the group. We affirmed the ratings on subordinated debt issued by Société Générale and related entities because they are notched down from the 'a-' unchanged SACP. Similarly, we affirmed our issue rating on Sogécap's subordinated debt, which did not benefit from the notch of uplift for government support, and does not benefit from ALAC support. Société Générale's SACP is underpinned by its well-established position in its core markets. It combines a stable well-entrenched retail banking operation in France with a sustainable and profitable franchise in corporate and investment banking, and a strengthening international retail banking business. Société Générale's capitalization has been on an upward trend over the past two to three years, which benefits the bank's financial profile. We expect that our risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio for the group, before diversification benefits, will be in the range 8.5%-9.0% at end-2017, compared with 8.0% on Dec. 31, In our view, the increase will come primarily from retained earnings, which we expect to materially improve on the back of further synergies in revenues and cost saving plans, along with the strategic plans that the group disclosed in We expect that the increase in our RAC ratio on the group will also stem from further issuance of Tier 1 hybrid debt, and will be supported by low-single-digit annual growth of risk-weighted assets. Société Générale's cost of risk reflects, in our view, its presence in relatively high-risk emerging markets, such as Russia and Romania, and in specialized financial services, as well as litigation risks. We note that the cost of risk decreased significantly in Société Générale's exposure at default to Eastern European countries outside the EU is a small 3% though. At the end of third-quarter 2015, the group disclosed a total commitment to Russia in the form of equity and intragroup funding of 3.3 billion, which we consider a manageable exposure, in light of its risk diversification and financial profile. We will continue to closely monitor the group's strategy and operations in Russia in the context of the geopolitical tensions and economic environment there. DECEMBER 3,
5 At mid-year 2015, our measure of broad liquid assets to short-term wholesale funding for Société Générale was 1.14x and our stable funding ratio stood at 92.4% (for definitions of these metrics, see "Quantitative Metrics For Rating Banks Globally: Methodology And Assumptions," published July 17, 2013, on RatingsDirect). Société Générale's ratios compare well with domestic peers', despite still somewhat lagging those of international peers. As a principle, the bank raises short-term wholesale funding to fund short-term assets. We believe that the group has adequate liquidity management and contingency plans. Outlook Our stable outlook on Société Générale reflects our expectation that the group will steadily grow its loss absorption capacities, raising its ALAC ratio to the 5.5%-6.0% range by end-2018, well above our 5.00% threshold for incorporating one notch of ALAC support in our ratings on the group. We also expect that Société Générale will implement its strategy and continue to increase its earnings capacity in the next two years, notably on the back of synergies in revenues and of cost control, and despite low interest rates, which weigh on retail banking revenues in France. This should lead to a RAC ratio in a range of 8.5%-9.0% at end The outlook also reflects our view that Société Générale will continue to demonstrate a measured risk appetite and will maintain its funding and liquidity profile. The stable outlook on Sogécap reflects notably that we see no particular upward or downward pressure on Société Générale's SACP. We could lower our ratings if the group did not build ALAC as we expect, or in case of a significant deterioration in its franchise and revenues. In particular, we will continue to monitor the approach to business and profitability in the investment banking division amid more demanding regulatory rules. We could also lower our ratings if sizable unexpected risks stemmed from the group's retail operations in countries with higher economic risks or from its investment banking activities, or in case of unexpected disputes. We could raise our ratings in case of a strong improvement in the group's risk position, which we do not consider a likely scenario over our rating horizon. Ratings Score Snapshot To From Issuer Credit Rating A/Stable/A-1 A/Negative/A-1 SACP a- a- Anchor bbb+ bbb+ Business Position Strong (+1) Strong (+1) Capital and Earnings Adequate (0) Adequate (0) DECEMBER 3,
6 Risk Position Adequate (0) Adequate (0) Funding and Liquidity Average (0) Average (0) and Adequate and Adequate Support ALAC Support +1 0 GRE Support 0 0 Group Support 0 0 Sovereign Support 0 +1 Additional Factors 0 0 Related Criteria And Research Related Criteria Bank Rating Methodology And Assumptions: Additional Loss-Absorbing Capacity, April 27, 2015 Rating Government-Related Entities: Methodology And Assumptions, March 25, 2015 Bank Hybrid Capital And Nondeferrable Subordinated Debt Methodology And Assumptions, Jan. 29, 2015 Principles For Rating Debt Issues Based On Imputed Promises, Dec. 19, 2014 General Criteria: Standard & Poor's National And Regional Scale Mapping Tables, Sept. 30, 2014 National And Regional Scale Credit Ratings, Sept. 22, 2014 Ratings Above The Sovereign--Corporate And Government Ratings: Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 19, 2013 Group Rating Methodology, Nov. 19, 2013 Use Of 'C' And 'D' Issue Credit Ratings For Hybrid Capital And Payment-In-Kind Instruments, Oct. 24, 2013 Assessing Bank Branch Creditworthiness, Oct. 14, 2013 Quantitative Metrics For Rating Banks Globally: Methodology And Assumptions, July 17, 2013 Criteria For Assigning 'CCC+', 'CCC', 'CCC-', And 'CC' Ratings, Oct. 1, 2012 Revised Market Risk Charges For Banks In Our Risk-Adjusted Capital Framework, June 22, 2012 Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 9, 2011 Banks: Rating Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 9, 2011 Bank Capital Methodology And Assumptions, Dec. 6, 2010 Methodology For Mapping Short- And Long-Term Issuer Credit Ratings For Banks, May 4, 2010 Use Of CreditWatch And Outlooks, Sept. 14, 2009 Commercial Paper I: Banks, March 23, DECEMBER 3,
7 Related Research Most European Bank Ratings Affirmed Following Government Support And ALAC Review, Dec. 2, 2015 Credit FAQ: How Standard & Poor's Applied Its Government Support And ALAC Criteria To European Banks In December 2015, Dec. 2, 2015 Standard & Poor's To Conclude Its Review Of Systemic Support For Remaining EU Banks By Early December 2015, Oct. 1, 2015 Government And ALAC Support Ratings Uplift For Systemically Important European Banking Groups, Oct. 1, 2015 Societe Generale, July 10, 2015 France-Based Societe Generale 'A/A-1' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Remains Negative, July 6, 2015 Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: France, July 6, 2015 France 'AA/A-1+' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Remains Negative On Risks To Reform, June 26, 2015 Various Rating Actions Taken On Russian Banks Due To Rising Economic Risk, Feb. 26, 2015 Government Support Is Critical To The Stability Of The Russian Banking Sector, Feb. 25, 2015 Various Rating Actions Taken On European Bank Hybrids On Publication Of Revised Bank Hybrid Capital Criteria, Sept. 29, 2014 How The Regulatory Reform Process Could Reshape Banks' Business Models And Affect Issuer Ratings, Aug. 18, 2014 Credit FAQ: The Rating Impact Of Resolution Regimes For European Banks, April 29, 2014 Standard & Poor's Takes Various Rating Actions On European Banks Following Government Support Review, April 29, 2014 Ratings List Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Action To From Societe Generale Societe Generale Bank & Trust Societe Generale (New York Branch) SG Americas Securities LLC Komercni Banka A.S. Franfinance Credit du Nord S.A. Banque Tarneaud S.A. Banque Rhone Alpes S.A. Banque Kolb S.A. Counterparty Credit Rating A/Stable/A-1 A/Negative/A-1 Societe Generale (Taipei Branch) Counterparty Credit Rating twaa+/stable/twa-1+ twaa+/negative/twa-1+ Downgraded To From DECEMBER 3,
8 Sogecap S.A. Counterparty Credit Rating A-/Stable/-- A/Negative/-- Financial Strength Rating A-/Stable/-- A/Negative/-- Ratings Affirmed Societe Generale Senior Unsecured A Senior Unsecured Ap Subordinated BBB Subordinated cna+ Junior Subordinated BB+ Junior Subordinated BBB- Certificate Of Deposit A-1 Commercial Paper A Commercial Paper A-1 Sogecap S.A. Subordinated BBB N.B. This list does not include all ratings affected. Additional Contact: Financial Institutions Ratings Europe; FIG_Europe@standardandpoors.com Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect at and at spcapitaliq.com. All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at Use the Ratings search box located in the left column. Alternatively, call one of the following Standard & Poor's numbers: Client Support Europe (44) ; London Press Office (44) ; Paris (33) ; Frankfurt (49) ; Stockholm (46) ; or Moscow 7 (495) DECEMBER 3,
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