Global Energy Group GDF SUEZ's 'A/A-1' Ratings On CreditWatch Negative On Adverse Business Outlook

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1 Research Update: Global Energy Group GDF SUEZ's 'A/A-1' Ratings On CreditWatch Negative On Adverse Business Outlook Primary Credit Analyst: Nicolas Riviere, Paris (33) ; Secondary Contact: Vittoria Ferraris, Milan (39) ; Table Of Contents Overview Rating Action Rationale CreditWatch Related Criteria And Research Ratings List JANUARY 29,

2 Research Update: Global Energy Group GDF SUEZ's 'A/A-1' Ratings On CreditWatch Negative On Adverse Business Outlook Overview In our view, the recent and significant deterioration in European energy prices is structural. We believe this will erode GDF SUEZ's profitability and cash flow in the coming years and put some pressure on its credit metrics. We are placing our 'A/A-1' corporate credit ratings on GDF SUEZ (GDFS) on CreditWatch with negative implications. The CreditWatch placement reflects our view that we could revise downward our assessment of GDFS' business risk profile, and lower the ratings, in the absence of support from a strengthening financial profile. Rating Action On Jan. 29, 2013, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services placed its 'A' long-term and 'A-1' short-term corporate credit ratings on France-based global energy player GDF SUEZ S.A. (GDFS) and related entities on CreditWatch with negative implications. Rationale The rating action reflects our view that European energy markets will remain structurally challenged, as reflected by falling forward prices and generation spreads for electricity. We believe this could in turn structurally weaken GDFS' profitability and impair our current view of its business risk profile as "excellent." We believe that this could also delay the recovery of the group's credit metrics, which also depends upon the execution of a large disposal program. We believe GDFS' business risk profile is pressured by the structural deterioration of power and gas market conditions in Europe, in particular owing to depressed gas-fired generation margins that dilute the group's earnings and profitability. We expect GDFS' adjusted funds from operation (FFO) to debt in 2012 to be in line with our expectations of slightly under 23%. However, we now estimate that the group could underperform our November 2012 base-case scenario by about 1.5 billion in EBITDA by adjusted for Suez Environnement's deconsolidation--assuming commodity prices remain in line with current forward prices and factoring in higher dilution from disposals, which GDFS scaled up in December to 11 billion over JANUARY 29,

3 Research Update: Global Energy Group GDF SUEZ's 'A/A-1' Ratings On CreditWatch Negative On Adverse Business Outlook We believe however, that GDFS' 3.5 billion cost-cutting program between now and 2015; its strong organic growth in fast-growing markets under contracted terms; and the disposal of some merchant assets could mitigate the group's earnings' contraction and offset the pressure on its credit metrics. In this respect, we believe management has realistic disposal plans and is committed to proactive actions. Nevertheless, although management's track record and the group's strong financial flexibility confer credibility to its ambitious plans, any significant shortfall in execution or weaker market conditions than current forward prices suggest would likely hold back the strengthening of the group's credit metrics in the medium term. GDFS' business risk profile remains supported by the group's unrivaled scale and diversification, its strong competitive positions in regional markets, its sizable share of regulated and contracted operations, its young and clean power generation assets, and its broad and highly diversified gas sourcing, including its leading position in liquefied natural gas (LNG). These strengths are partially offset by GDFS' increasing exposure to fast-growing but historically volatile overseas markets, depressed market conditions in its core European operations, and some political risks in its historic home countries. Over the longer term, we believe an increased focus on long-term contracted and regulated operations could support cash flow stability. GDFS' financial risk profile remains supported by its "strong" liquidity and financial flexibility, track record of financial discipline, and our anticipation of positive free operating cash flow. Constraints include GDFS' extensive investment program and high shareholder returns, which contribute to the group's significant debt burden. Liquidity The 'A-1' short-term rating is supported by GDFS' liquidity, which we consider to be "strong" under our criteria. Projected sources of funds exceed projected uses by more than 2.2x over the next 12 months, and by more than 2.1x in the subsequent 12 to 24 months. Excluding any proceeds of asset sales not yet secured, projected sources of funds exceed projected uses by nearly 1.9x over the next 12 months and by more than 1.5x in the subsequent 12 to 24 months. Our assessment is further supported by the group's ongoing and proactive liquidity and debt management, solid relationships with banks, and ample and proven access to capital markets, even under dire conditions. GDFS became one of the few issuers of a century bond in March More recently between May and October 2012, GDFS issued bonds for a total of about 6 billion with an average cost of only 1.7%. We factor into our liquidity assessment for the next 12 months, based on our estimates, the following sources at end-2012: About 10 billion in available cash at the group level; JANUARY 29,

4 Research Update: Global Energy Group GDF SUEZ's 'A/A-1' Ratings On CreditWatch Negative On Adverse Business Outlook About 10 billion in available committed credit lines maturing beyond 12 months adjusted for outstanding commercial paper. This includes two syndicated facilities: 4 billion maturing in June 2015 and 4.5 billion maturing in March 2017, with one option for a one-year extension; Asset disposals that we assume at about 5.5 billion, in line with GDFS' targets; and Our forecast of unadjusted FFO of about 10.2 billion over the next 12 months (on a pro forma basis not accounting for subsidiary Suez Environnement's contribution in the first six months). Against these sources, we factor in the following liquidity uses: Short-term debt of about 3.2 billion, net of outstanding commercial paper; Our estimate of capital expenditures; not exceeding 8 billion in light of management revised guidance; Dividend cash payments of about 4.2 billion including dividends of the group's subsidiaries to minorities; and Our assumption of working capital needs of about 0.8 billion over the next 12 months. CreditWatch The CreditWatch placement reflects our view that the depressed energy market conditions in Europe and any shortfall in the execution of the group's cost-cutting and disposal plans could weaken the company's credit profile, which may lead us to lower the ratings. Such a downgrade could arise from a reassessment of either the group's business risk or financial risk profile, in accordance with our rating methodology. A weakening of GDFS' business risk profile that may not be offset by a stronger financial profile would result in a downgrade. We expect that a downgrade would be limited to one notch. We expect to resolve the CreditWatch status within the coming three months. We will review GDFS' business risk and financial risk profile in light of the adverse evolution of its electricity and gas operations in Europe, acceleration in the strategic shift toward nonmerchant activities and fast-growing markets, and the execution risk of its cost-cutting, disposal, and commissioning plans. Related Criteria And Research GDF SUEZ S.A., Nov. 20, 2012 Ratings List Ratings Affirmed; CreditWatch/Outlook Action To From GDF SUEZ S.A. Corporate Credit Rating A/Watch Neg/A-1 A/Stable/A-1 JANUARY 29,

5 Research Update: Global Energy Group GDF SUEZ's 'A/A-1' Ratings On CreditWatch Negative On Adverse Business Outlook Senior Unsecured A/Watch Neg A Commercial Paper A-1/Watch Neg A-1 GIE Suez Alliance International Power PLC Corporate Credit Rating A/Watch Neg/-- A/Stable/-- Belgelec Finance S.A.* Electrabel* GIE Suez Alliance Senior Unsecured A/Watch Neg A *Guaranteed by GIE Suez Alliance. International Power Finance (2010) PLC International Power Finance (Jersey) II Ltd. International Power Finance (Jersey) III Ltd. International Power Finance (Jersey) Ltd. Senior Unsecured A-/Watch Neg A- These four issues are guaranteed by International Power PLC. Additional Contact: Infrastructure Finance Ratings Europe; InfrastructureEurope@standardandpoors.com Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect on the Global Credit Portal at All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at Use the Ratings search box located in the left column. Alternatively, call one of the following Standard & Poor's numbers: Client Support Europe (44) ; London Press Office (44) ; Paris (33) ; Frankfurt (49) ; Stockholm (46) ; or Moscow 7 (495) JANUARY 29,

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