Six Russian Real Estate Companies On CreditWatch Amid Higher Interest Rates, Weakening Demand, Sharp Ruble Depreciation

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1 Research Update: Six Russian Real Estate Companies On CreditWatch Amid Higher Interest Rates, Weakening Demand, Sharp Ruble Depreciation Primary Credit Analyst: Anton Geyze, Moscow (7) ; Secondary Contact: Franck Delage, Paris (33) ; Table Of Contents Overview Rating Action Rationale CreditWatch Related Criteria And Research Ratings List JANUARY 20,

2 Research Update: Six Russian Real Estate Companies On CreditWatch Amid Higher Interest Rates, Weakening Overview We see Russian real estate developers and investment companies' cash flow generation, asset revaluations, and liquidity being negatively affected by a higher interest rate environment amid weakening demand and pressures created by sharp ruble depreciation. We are therefore putting our ratings on CJSC SSMO LenSpetsSMU, O1 Properties Ltd., JSC PIK Group, and RSG International Ltd. on CreditWatch negative. We are also lowering our ratings on Breboro Holdings Co. Ltd. and Pioneer Group CJSC and putting them on CreditWatch negative and CreditWatch developing, respectively. The resolution of the CreditWatches will depend on the scale of the decline in the real estate market, the liquidity position of each company, and on the dynamics of key macroeconomic parameters, such as interest rates. Rating Action On Jan. 20, 2015, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services took the following rating actions on six Russian real estate developers and investment companies: We placed our 'B+' long-term and 'B' short-term corporate credit ratings and 'rua+' Russia national scale rating on on CJSC SSMO LenSpetsSMU on CreditWatch with negative implications. We placed our 'B+' long-term corporate credit rating on O1 Properties Ltd. on CreditWatch with negative implications. We placed our 'B' long-term corporate credit rating and our 'rua-' Russia national scale rating on JSC PIK Group on CreditWatch with negative implications. We placed our 'B-' long-term and 'B' short-term corporate credit ratings and our 'rubbb' Russia national scale rating on RSG International Ltd. on CreditWatch with negative implications. We lowered our long-term corporate credit rating on Breboro Holdings Co. Ltd. to 'CCC+' from 'B-' and our Russia national scale rating to 'rubb-' from 'rubbb-' and placed them on CreditWatch with negative implications. We lowered our long-term corporate credit rating on Pioneer Group CJSC to 'CCC' from 'B-' and our Russia national scale rating to 'rub+' from 'rubbb-' and placed them on CreditWatch with developing implications. JANUARY 20,

3 Rationale The CreditWatch placements reflect our view that Russian real estate developers and investment companies' cash flow generation, asset revaluations, and liquidity will be negatively affected by the higher interest rate environment amid weakening demand and pressures created by sharp ruble depreciation. Key elements of the deteriorating environment are the ruble's 50% depreciation in 2014, and the central bank's substantial increase of the interest rate to 17%. We lowered the ratings on Russian real estate developers Breboro Holdings and Pioneer Group CJSC because of our assessment of their liquidity and our view that they have insufficient committed liquidity sources to cover maturities within the next 12 months. Breboro's maturities are stretched throughout the year, while Pioneer faces a put option on its ruble bond at the end of April We understand that the companies' managements expect to generate funds from sales of real estate within the coming months to have sufficient funds for debt repayment. However, we believe that weakened industry conditions might put their plans at risk. We will be analyzing RSG International's liquidity position in more detail, but as we understand, the company had materially reduced its debt by Dec. 31, Russia's economic environment has deteriorated, due to the plunging oil price, and refinancing risks have increased due to Russian issuers' very limited access to foreign capital markets and investors' lower appetite for Russian debt issuance. As a result, we believe that demand for real estate both by individuals and companies will materially weaken in , causing a cyclical downturn in the industry. The scale of this weakening is currently uncertain and will depend both on the evolving economic environment in Russia, driven by oil price dynamics, the geopolitical situation, and by the government's monetary and fiscal policy and its propensity to support particular industries and companies. Because demand for new real estate is linked to the availability of affordable mortgages, high interest rates might effectively restrict a substantial part of the population's access to mortgage loans and translate into a major decline in demand. Additionally, part of demand has been shifted to 2014 from 2015 as the population acquired residential real estate to protect their savings from devaluation. Additionally, the ruble's recent sharp depreciation puts pressure on real JANUARY 20,

4 estate investment trusts' tenants, whose revenues are in rubles but whose rent payments are linked to hard currency. This creates risks that rent payments will be renegotiated and rental revenues of real estate investment companies will decline. This is the case for O1 Properties, where declining rental payments and interest rate increases will likely lead to real estate portfolio revaluations weighing on the company's credit metrics and covenant headroom. We are factoring lower demand for new real estate, negative asset revaluations, higher interest rates, and a higher exchange rate into our forecasts for all six companies, and see the potential that we would lower our ratings on Russian real estate developers and real estate investment companies. CreditWatch We will likely resolve the CreditWatches in the first quarter of 2015, when we have more clarity regarding the impact of the worsened economic environment on the industry and in particular on the companies, including their operating performance, credit metrics, and liquidity positions. The negative implications mean we might lower the ratings upon resolution of the CreditWatch, while developing implications mean that we might affirm, lower, or raise the ratings upon resolution of the CreditWatch. Related Criteria And Research Methodology And Assumptions: Liquidity Descriptors For Global Corporate Issuers, Dec. 16, 2014 Key Credit Factors For The Homebuilder And Real Estate Developer Industry, Feb. 3, 2014 Corporate Methodology, Nov. 19, 2013 Corporate Methodology: Ratios and Adjustments, Nov. 19, 2013 Key Credit Factors For The Real Estate Industry, Nov. 19, 2013 Methodology: Management And Governance Credit Factors For Corporate Entities And Insurers, Nov. 13, 2012 Ratings List Ratings Affirmed; CreditWatch/Outlook Action To From CJSC SSMO LenSpetsSMU Corporate Credit Rating B+/Watch Neg/B B+/Stable/B Russia National Scale rua+/watch Neg/-- rua+/--/-- Senior Unsecured B+/Watch Neg B+ Senior Unsecured rua+/watch Neg rua+ JANUARY 20,

5 O1 Properties Ltd. Corporate Credit Rating B+/Watch Neg/-- B+/Stable/-- Senior Unsecured B+/Watch Neg B+ JSC PIK Group Corporate Credit Rating B/Watch Neg/-- B/Stable/-- Russia National Scale rua-/watch Neg/-- rua-/--/-- RSG International Ltd. Corporate Credit Rating B-/Watch Neg/B B-/Stable/B Russia National Scale rubbb/watch Neg/-- rubbb/--/-- RSG Finance LLC Corporate Credit Rating B-/Watch Neg/B B-/Stable/B Russia National Scale rubbb/watch Neg/-- rubbb/--/-- Senior Unsecured B-/Watch Neg B- Downgraded; CreditWatch/Outlook Action To From Breboro Holdings Co. Ltd. Corporate Credit Rating CCC+/Watch Neg/-- B-/Negative/-- Russia National Scale rubb-/watch Neg/-- rubbb-/--/-- LLC MC Kvartstroy Corporate Credit Rating CCC+/Watch Neg/C B-/Negative/B Russia National Scale rubb-/watch Neg/-- rubbb-/--/-- Pioneer Group CJSC Corporate Credit Rating CCC/Watch Dev/-- B-/Stable/-- Russia National Scale rub+/watch Dev/-- rubbb-/--/-- Senior Unsecured CCC/Watch Dev B- Additional Contact: Industrial Ratings Europe; Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect at and at spcapitaliq.com. All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at Use the Ratings search box located in the left column. Alternatively, call one of the following Standard & Poor's numbers: Client Support Europe (44) ; London Press Office (44) JANUARY 20,

6 ; Paris (33) ; Frankfurt (49) ; Stockholm (46) ; or Moscow 7 (495) JANUARY 20,

7 Copyright 2015 Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC, a part of McGraw Hill Financial. All rights reserved. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P). The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an "as is" basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT'S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED, OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs or losses caused by negligence) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Credit-related and other analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact. S&P's opinions, analyses, and rating acknowledgment decisions (described below) are not recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions, and do not address the suitability of any security. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor except where registered as such. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. To the extent that regulatory authorities allow a rating agency to acknowledge in one jurisdiction a rating issued in another jurisdiction for certain regulatory purposes, S&P reserves the right to assign, withdraw, or suspend such acknowledgement at any time and in its sole discretion. S&P Parties disclaim any duty whatsoever arising out of the assignment, withdrawal, or suspension of an acknowledgment as well as any liability for any damage alleged to have been suffered on account thereof. S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain nonpublic information received in connection with each analytical process. S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, (free of charge), and and (subscription) and (subscription) and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third-party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at JANUARY 20,

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