Swedish Housing Group Framtiden 'AA-/A-1+' And 'K-1' Ratings Affirmed On Strong Relationship With Owner; Outlook Stable
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1 Research Update: Swedish Housing Group Framtiden 'AA-/A-1+' And 'K-1' Ratings Affirmed On Strong Relationship With Owner; Outlook Stable Primary Credit Analyst: Pierre-Brice Hellsing, Frankfurt +46 (0) ; Secondary Contact: Carl Nyrerod, Stockholm (46) ; Table Of Contents Overview Rating Action Rationale Outlook Related Criteria And Research Ratings List OCTOBER 09,
2 Research Update: Swedish Housing Group Framtiden 'AA-/A-1+' And 'K-1' Ratings Affirmed On Strong Relationship With Owner; Outlook Stable Overview In our view, Förvaltnings AB Framtiden's full integration into the City of Göteborg's in-house bank has strengthened its role for and financial relationship with its owner, and we believe there is a very high likelihood that Göteborg will support the group if needed. At the same time, Framtiden's liquidity has deteriorated, since the group cancelled its liquidity lines as part of its integration into the city's in-house bank. We consider Framtiden's overall credit quality unchanged and are therefore affirming our 'AA-/A-1+' global scale ratings and our 'K-1' regional scale rating on Framtiden. The stable outlook reflects our expectation that over the next two years Framtiden's financing risks will remain limited, because the city is now responsible for servicing Framtiden's external debt obligations. Rating Action On Oct. 9, 2015, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services affirmed its 'AA-/A-1+' longand short-term issuer credit ratings on Swedish public housing provider Förvaltnings AB Framtiden. The outlook is stable. At the same time, we affirmed our 'K-1' Nordic regional scale rating on the group. Rationale The affirmation reflects that, following the full integration of Framtiden into the in-house bank of the city of Göteborg (AA+/Stable/A-1+), we now consider that there is a very high likelihood that the group would receive timely and sufficient extraordinary support in the event of financial distress from the city. In accordance with our criteria for government-related entities (GREs), our view that there is a very high likelihood Framtiden will receive timely extraordinary government support is based on our assessment of the group's: Very important role in implementation of public policy for Göteborg, which regards the group as an important contributor to the city's overall infrastructure and public policy, illustrated by the city's ambitious goals for new construction. Importantly, the group's integration into the city treasury means that the city bears Framtiden's external refinancing risks. As such, any credit stress at Framtiden will now have direct implications for the city; and Very strong link with the city, which is actively involved in defining the group's strategy, appoints its board of directors, and intends to maintain its 100% OCTOBER 09,
3 ownership. We also take into consideration our assessment of the group's stand-alone credit profile (SACP) as 'a-'. Our assessment of Framtiden's SACP is supported by the group's very strong enterprise profile, stemming from low industry risk, very strong economic fundamentals, and a strong market position in Göteborg's rental property market. We continue to assess the group's financial profile as strong overall, reflecting its conservative financial policies and low leverage. We have, however, revised our assessment of the group's liquidity to less than adquate from adequate, since its integration into the city treasury function has led to a reduction in committed bank facilities and the loss of direct access to the capital markets. This caps our SACP at 'a-'. We consider Framtiden to have a very strong enterprise profile due to its low industry risk, very strong economic fundamentals, and strong market position. Specifically, the group had 70,942 housing units in the Göteborg area at year-end Framtiden benefits from very strong demand for its rental apartments in the growing city of Göteborg, which results in minimal vacancies in its housing stock. We calculate the average dwelling price for private houses in Göteborg at a high 181% of the national average, which, combined with very strong population growth of 1.3% annually over the past three years, suggests very strong local economic fundamentals. Framtiden's properties are generally well maintained, and the group has increased its maintenance levels over the past few years. We forecast that annual maintenance will continue to rise, reaching Swedish krona (SEK) 1.4 billion (about 151 million) by year-end 2017, compared with SEK1.3 billion in We continue to assess Framtiden's financial profile as strong due to its conservative financial policies and robust balance sheet. Framtiden is continuing to expand and we expect it will invest about SEK1.85 billion annually in With these planned investments adding SEK0.8 billion in net new loans per year, we forecast the group's ratio of debt to debt-and-equity will increase to 66% by yearend 2017 from 63% in However, Framtiden has a strong loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 22% and headroom within its interest coverage ratios. Since the beginning of 2014, Framtiden has been increasingly integrating into the city of Göteborg's in-house bank. As such, Göteborg is in the process of gradually assuming the debt stock of Framtiden into the city treasury, thereby increasing the city's onlending over the next few years. As of Aug. 31, 2015, Framtiden still had SEK1.2 billion of loans secured by properties as well as SEK4.92 billion of senior unsecured medium-term notes in its own name, with principal repayments in 2018 at the latest. The remaining SEK8.9 billion of its debt were borrowed from Göteborg's treasury. Liquidity We consider that Framdiden's overall liquidity position has weakened because the integration into the city treasury function has led to a reduction in committed bank OCTOBER 09,
4 facilities and the loss of direct access to the capital markets. We therefore now assess Framtiden's overall liquidity as less than adequate compared with adequate previously. This caps Framtiden's SACP at 'a-' according to our criteria. Importantly, following the full transition of Framtiden's funding to the city's inhouse bank, Framtiden is not allowed to enter into any external debt relationships without the city's authorization. We observe that Framtiden's financial relationship with the city, including roles and financing, is formalized in legal documents stating that the city will be responsible for supplying funding to Framtiden. We expect that Framtiden will progressively refinance the remainder of the debt it currently holds in its own name to the city treasury as it matures, as well manage all new funding via the city. Because Framtiden's debt will consist solely of funds from the city treasury, we consider the formalized funding relationship to have linked the group and city closer together, strengthening the likelihood of Framtiden receiving support from the city in the event of financial stress. Outlook The stable outlook reflects our expectation that over the next two years Framtiden's risks will remain limited because Göteborg is now responsible for servicing its external debt obligations. We expect that Framtiden's integration in the city treasury will continue supporting our expectation of a sustainably very high likelihood of extraordinary support for Framtiden from Göteborg. Furthermore, we anticipate that the group's very strong enterprise risk profile and strong financial risk profile will comfortably sustain its SACP, assuming continued healthy financial performance and a sound debt position after a gradual, mild increase in leverage. We do not foresee any changes in Framtiden's ownership and support structure that would affect our view of the group's role for or link to Göteborg. We could raise the ratings if Framtiden's liquidity noticeably improved, removing the cap on our SACP assessment. We could also raise the ratings if Framtiden's relationship with the city strengthened further, for example, through a formal, unconditional, and irrevocable guarantee agreement, or if we upgraded Göteborg to 'AAA'. We could lower the ratings if we downgraded Göteborg, or if we saw a lower likelihood of extraordinary support for Framtiden. This could, for example, occur if Framtiden's assimilation into the city's in-house banking operations did not last or if we noticed Göteborg's financing responsibility was not as unconditional as we expected. Pressure on the ratings could also build if we witnessed a marked deterioration in the group's financial risk profile, for example, through debt rising noticeably beyond our current projections or a significant slump in financial performance. We however consider both these upgrade and downgrade scenarios remote at this stage. OCTOBER 09,
5 Forvaltnings AB Framtiden Financial Statistics --Fiscal Year Ending Dec (Mil. SEK) bc 2016bc 2017bc Revenues 5,226 5,389 5,009 5,120 5,274 5,432 EBITDA 1,391 1,401 1,339 1,395 1,445 1,494 Operating income Interest expense Funds from operations ,040 1,080 Capital expenditures 1,261 1,279 1,496 1,800 1,850 1,900 Total assets 27,066 27,305 26,636 27,517 28,431 29,377 Debt 15,456 15,309 14,988 15,791 16,602 17,421 Equity 8,515 8,907 8,790 8,867 8,969 9,095 EBITDA margin (%) EBITDA interest coverage (x) Operating cash flow/debt (%) Debt/EBITDA (x) Debt/debt and equity (%) The data and ratios above result in part from Standard & Poor's own calculations. The main sources are the financial statements and budgets, as provided by the issuer. The figures are based on the Swedish Financial Accounting Standards Council recommendations. The 2014 figures are based on the Swedish K3 accounting framework, adjusted to maintain comparability with previous years. SEK--Swedish krona. bc-- Base case, reflects Standard & Poor's expectations of the most likely scenario. Related Criteria And Research Related Criteria General Criteria: Rating Government-Related Entities: Methodology And Assumptions - March 25, 2015 Criteria - Governments - General: Methodology For Rating Public And Nonprofit Social Housing Providers - December 17, 2014 General Criteria: Standard & Poor's National And Regional Scale Mapping Tables - September 30, 2014 General Criteria: National And Regional Scale Credit Ratings - September 22, 2014 General Criteria: Methodology For Linking Short-Term And Long-Term Ratings For Corporate, Insurance, And Sovereign Issuers - May 07, 2013 Ratings List Ratings To From Forvaltnings AB Framtiden Issuer credit rating OCTOBER 09,
6 Ratings List Continued... Foreign and Local Currency AA-/Stable/A-1+ AA-/Stable/A-1+ Nordic Regional Scale --/--/K-1 --/--/K-1 Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect at and at spcapitaliq.com. All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at Use the Ratings search box located in the left column. Alternatively, call one of the following Standard & Poor's numbers: Client Support Europe (44) ; London Press Office (44) ; Paris (33) ; Frankfurt (49) ; Stockholm (46) ; or Moscow 7 (495) Additional Contact: International Public Finance Ratings Europe; PublicFinanceEurope@standardandpoors.com OCTOBER 09,
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