Dominion Gas Holdings LLC
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- Myrtle Wright
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1 Summary: Dominion Gas Holdings LLC Primary Credit Analyst: Todd A Shipman, CFA, New York (1) ; todd.shipman@standardandpoors.com Secondary Contact: Dimitri Nikas, New York (1) ; dimitri.nikas@standardandpoors.com Table Of Contents Initial Analytical Outcome ("Anchor") And Rating Result Rationale Outlook Business Risk Financial Risk Liquidity Group Rating Methodology Ratings Score Snapshot Related Criteria And Research APRIL 1,
2 Summary: Dominion Gas Holdings LLC Corporate Credit Rating A-/Stable/-- Profile Assessments BUSINESS RISK EXCELLENT Vulnerable Excellent FINANCIAL RISK SIGNIFICANT Highly leveraged Minimal Initial Analytical Outcome ("Anchor") And Rating Result Our 'A-' rating on Dominion Gas Holdings LLC (DGH) is derived from: Our anchor of 'a-', based on our "excellent" business risk and "significant" financial risk profile assessments for the company. Modifiers have no effect on the rating outcome. The stand-alone credit profile (sacp) of 'a-' for DGH reflects its business risk and financial risk profiles that equate to the 'a-' group credit profile (GCP) of parent holding company Dominion Resources Inc. Under our group rating methodology, we consider DGH to be a "core" subsidiary of the Dominion group, and the issuer credit rating for DGH is equal to the Dominion GCP. Rationale Business Risk: Excellent DGH encompasses Dominion's regulated natural gas businesses in local distribution, transmission, storage, and gathering and processing. DGH manages regulatory risk better than its peers. Some operations are nominally regulated but are exposed to some degree of volume and market price risk. These risks are partially hedged through contractual and financial means. Financial Risk: Significant Stable credit protection measures that solidly support the financial risk profile. Adequate liquidity. APRIL 1,
3 Summary: Dominion Gas Holdings LLC Outlook: Stable The outlook is stable and reflects Dominion's utility-centric business strategy that combines favorable business-risk characteristics with an enhanced ability to produce more stable earnings and cash flow. The regulatory regime in Virginia is credit-supportive and trending upward, as regulatory reforms are being implemented. The remaining business ventures have relatively low risk or are well-managed to contain risk, and many, such as the Cove Point liquefied natural gas facility, actually enhance Dominion's credit quality. Our base forecast shows adjusted consolidated measures as follows: funds from operations (FFO) to debt of about 15% to 17%% and debt to EBITDA averaging about 4.5x. Downside scenario We could lower ratings if Dominion expands the size and risk profile of its unregulated business activities to an extent that affects our assessment of its business risk profile or if financial performance deteriorates to a point that FFO to debt averages less than 13%. Upside scenario With elevated capital spending over the intermediate term and stable projected credit measures, higher ratings are unlikely. Business Risk: Excellent Dominion East Ohio (DEO) is a very low-risk natural gas local distribution utility that has mainly transportation-only customers, low regulatory risk due to its rate design, and a separate infrastructure replacement program and cost recovery. Gathering activities at DEO are performed under long-term, fee-based contracts. We expect DEO, which is about one-third of DGH, to invest more than its relative share of DGH's planned capital expenditures over the intermediate term. Transportation and storage services are regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, are highly contracted with long terms, and have a high recontracting rate. The pipeline and storage network link major interstate pipeline systems to large natural gas markets in the northeastern and mid-atlantic regions of the U.S. While subject to volume and recontracting risk, the growth and attractiveness of natural gas in both the originating and target markets considerably limit that risk. Gathering and processing activities are higher risk, especially on the processing side where keep-whole arrangements persist, but DGH consistently hedges the price exposure to reduce margin volatility. Financial Risk: Significant We use the medial volatility table, reflecting the company's predominantly regulated business model. We view DGH's stand-alone financial risk profile as "significant," reflecting our expectation under our base case scenario that the core credit measures will remain within the middle of the range for the financial risk profile category. APRIL 1,
4 Summary: Dominion Gas Holdings LLC Liquidity: Adequate DGH's liquidity, measured on a consolidated basis with Dominion, as adequate under our corporate liquidity methodology. Projected liquidity sources exceed uses by more than 1.1x. The company's ability to absorb high-impact, low-probability events with limited need for refinancing, its flexibility to lower capital spending or sell assets, sound bank relationships, solid standing in credit markets, and generally prudent risk management also support our assessment of its liquidity as adequate. Principal Liquidity Sources FFO of about $4.4 billion over the next 12 months Assumed cash and credit facility availability of about $1.9 billion for the next 12 months Principal Liquidity Uses Debt maturities of about $1.5 billion over the next 12 months Capital spending of at least $2.5 billion over the next 12 months Cash dividends of about $1.4 billion Group Rating Methodology DGH is a wholly owned subsidiary of Dominion. Dominion's group credit profile (GCP) is 'a-'. DGH is a "core" subsidiary: it is highly unlikely to be sold, is integral to the overall group strategy, possesses the strong long-term commitment from Dominion management, is successful, is a significant contributor to Dominion and operates as a profit center of the group, is closely linked to Dominion's name and reputation, and it has been operating for as long as 116 years through predecessor companies. Its issuer credit rating is the same as the Dominion GCP. Ratings Score Snapshot Issuer credit rating: A-/Stable/-- Business risk: Excellent Country risk: Very low Industry risk: Very low Competitive position: Strong Financial risk: Significant Cash flow/leverage: Significant Anchor: 'a-' Modifiers Diversification/portfolio effect: Neutral (no effect) APRIL 1,
5 Summary: Dominion Gas Holdings LLC Capital structure: Neutral (no effect) Liquidity: Adequate (no effect) Financial policy: Neutral (no effect) Management and governance: Satisfactory (no effect) Comparable rating analysis: Neutral (no effect) Group credit profile: 'a-' Status with group: Core subsidiary Related Criteria And Research Corporate Methodology, Nov. 19, 2013 Key Credit Factors for The Regulated Utilities Industry, Nov. 19, 2013 Corporate Methodology: Ratios And Adjustments, Nov. 19, 2013 Methodology and Assumptions: Liquidity for Global Corporate Issuers, Nov. 19, Group Rating Methodology, Nov. 19, 2013 Methodology: Management And Governance Credit Factors For Corporate Entities And Insurers, Nov. 13, APRIL 1,
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