Millenniumbcp Ageas Core Non-Life Insurance Entity 'BB' Ratings On CreditWatch Positive On Announced Ownership Change

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1 Research Update: Millenniumbcp Ageas Core Non-Life Insurance Entity 'BB' Ratings On CreditWatch Positive On Announced Ownership Change Primary Credit Analyst: Gwenaelle Gibert, Paris (33) ; Secondary Contact: Peter McClean, London (44) ; Table Of Contents Overview Rating Action Rationale CreditWatch Related Criteria And Research Ratings List JUNE 6,

2 Research Update: Millenniumbcp Ageas Core Non-Life Insurance Entity 'BB' Ratings On CreditWatch Positive On Overview On May 26, 2014, Belgium-based multiline insurer Ageas announced it will take full ownership of the two non-life insurance companies in Millenniumbcp Ageas Grupo Segurador (MAGS), its joint venture with Portuguese bank Millenniumbcp, whereas the life operations will remain within the joint venture. We will likely no longer consider the two non-life subsidiaries as core within MAGS, and we will assess individual stand-alone credit profiles (SACPs) once the ownership change is complete. Post transaction, we might assess the SACPs on the two non-life insurers higher than our long-term rating on Portugal because they could pass our hypothetical sovereign stress test for rating issuers above the sovereign. We are therefore placing our 'BB' ratings on the two non-life entities, Médis Companhia Portuguesa de Seguros de Saúde, S.A. and Ocidental Companhia Portuguesa de Seguros S.A., on CreditWatch positive, and affirming our 'BB' ratings on life insurer Ocidental Companhia Portuguesa de Seguros de Vida S.A. We aim to resolve the CreditWatch placements within the next three months after assessing the individual SACPs for the two non-life entities, reviewing their sovereign-related exposure, and analyzing group support. Rating Action On June 6, 2014, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services placed its 'BB' long-term insurer financial strength and counterparty credit ratings on Ocidental Companhia Portuguesa de Seguros S.A. and Médis Companhia Portuguesa de Seguros de Saúde, S.A., the two non-life insurers of Portugal-based Millenniumbcp Ageas Grupo Segurador S.G.P.S. (together MAGS), on CreditWatch with positive implications. At the same time, we affirmed our 'BB' long-term insurer financial strength and corporate credit ratings on Ocidental Companhia Portuguesa de Seguros de Vida S.A., the group's life insurer. The outlook is stable. Rationale The CreditWatch placement follows Belgium-based multiline insurer Ageas' announcement on May 26, 2014, that it will take full ownership of the two JUNE 6,

3 Research Update: Millenniumbcp Ageas Core Non-Life Insurance Entity 'BB' Ratings On CreditWatch Positive On non-life activities in its joint venture with Portugal's No. 2 retail bank, Banco Comercial Portugues S.A. (Millenniumbcp) by acquiring the 49% stake it doesn't already own. We understand the transaction is still subject to regulatory approval. Ageas currently owns 51% of MAGS, a holding company that fully controls: Ocidental Companhia Portuguesa de Seguros de Vida (life, 86% of gross written premium [GWP]), Ocidental Companhia Portuguesa de Seguros (property/casualty [P/C], 6% of GWP), Médis Companhia Portuguesa de Seguros de Saúde (health, 8% of GWP), and Pensoes GERE, not rated, the group's pension fund manager. We currently rate the three operating subsidiaries at the same level given their core status within MAGS. Post-transaction, however, we will review the core status of the two non-life subsidiaries. According to Ageas' announcement, Millenniumbcp and Ageas will continue to jointly own Ocidental Companhia Portuguesa de Seguros de Vida through the holding company MAGS. The two non-life entities will be directly and fully owned by Ageas Insurance International. Consequently, we will no longer analyze the three entities on a consolidated basis, we will assess individual stand-alone credit profiles (SACPs) for the non-life entities, and we will review their core status to MAGS and Ageas under our criteria. We may then consequently change our view of the financial strength of the non-life activities. In addition, we will apply group support where relevant and assess the ability of all three entities to pass our hypothetical sovereign foreign currency default stress test for rating issuers above the sovereign. Under our criteria, our current ratings on MAGS' operating entities are constrained by the long-term sovereign rating on Portugal, owing to MAGS' investment exposure to Portugal. We believe MAGS--consisting of the life operations only--will not pass our sovereign stress test given the life operations' exposure to domestic investments. For the non-life entities, we will perform our stress test because of the announced new ownership structure and ratings approach, the shorter duration of these entities' assets, and their lower exposure to Portuguese assets than the life entity. We currently classify MAGS as strategically important to Ageas, but this does not translate into a rating uplift, because we cap the ratings on MAGS based on those on Portugal. The change in ownership structure will also affect our views of group support, so we will review such support for the non-life entities. We understand Ageas' commitment to MAGS remains unchanged at this stage though, because the 200% regulatory solvency target is unchanged, and Ageas' move to acquire full ownership shows its interest in Portuguese insurance business and its particular aim to expand its exposure to the Portuguese non-life market. JUNE 6,

4 Research Update: Millenniumbcp Ageas Core Non-Life Insurance Entity 'BB' Ratings On CreditWatch Positive On CreditWatch We aim to resolve the CreditWatch placements within the next 90 days, after reviewing Ocidental Companhia Portuguesa de Seguros' and Médis Companhia Portuguesa de Seguros de Saúde's investment exposure and assessing their SACPs. If the SACPs are higher than our long-term rating on Portugal, we will analyze and take into account each entity's current and anticipated exposures to domestic assets. We will also review both entities' capital plans in the event of sovereign stress that could trigger a negative action on Portugal. We could raise our ratings on Ocidental Companhia Portuguesa de Seguros and Médis Companhia Portuguesa de Seguros de Saúde by up to four notches if their individual SACPs are 'bb+' or higher, and importantly, if they pass our sovereign stress test. Helped by their moderate investment exposure to Portuguese assets relative to their regulatory capital, we could rate two entities as high as 'BBB', at the same level of their indicative SACPs (meaning before we factor in our sovereign-related rating limit). We would likely affirm our ratings on Ocidental Companhia Portuguesa de Seguros and Médis Companhia Portuguesa de Seguros de Saúde if: The transaction does not go ahead as currently announced, which we view as unlikely; or We assess the SACPs for the two non-life entities at lower than 'bb' and they don't pass our sovereign stress test. Related Criteria And Research Related Criteria Ratings Above The Sovereign Corporate And Government Ratings: Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 19, 2013 Group Rating Methodology, Nov. 19, 2013 Insurers: Rating Methodology, May 7, 2013 Enterprise Risk Management, May 7, 2013 Management And Governance Credit Factors For Corporate Entities And Insurers, Nov. 13, 2012 Refined Methodology And Assumptions For Analyzing Insurer Capital Adequacy Using The Risk-Based Insurance Capital Model, June 7, 2010 Ratings List Ratings Affirmed; CreditWatch Action To From Medis Companhia Portuguesa de Seguros de Saude, S.A. Ocidental Companhia Portuguesa de Seguros S.A. Counterparty Credit Rating BB/Watch Pos/-- BB/Stable/-- Financial Strength Rating BB/Watch Pos/-- BB/Stable/-- JUNE 6,

5 Research Update: Millenniumbcp Ageas Core Non-Life Insurance Entity 'BB' Ratings On CreditWatch Positive On Ocidental Companhia Portuguesa de Seguros de Vida S.A. Counterparty Credit Rating BB/Stable/-- Financial Strength Rating BB/Stable/-- Additional Contact: Insurance Ratings Europe; Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect at and at spcapitaliq.com. All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at Use the Ratings search box located in the left column. Alternatively, call one of the following Standard & Poor's numbers: Client Support Europe (44) ; London Press Office (44) ; Paris (33) ; Frankfurt (49) ; Stockholm (46) ; or Moscow 7 (495) JUNE 6,

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