R.V.I. Guaranty Co. Ltd. And Subsidiaries 'BBB' Ratings Affirmed After Insurance Criteria Change; The Outlook Is Stable

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1 Research Update: R.V.I. Guaranty Co. Ltd. And Subsidiaries 'BBB' Ratings Affirmed After Insurance Criteria Change; The Outlook Is Stable Primary Credit Analyst: David S Veno, New York (1) ; Secondary Contact: Blake Mock, New York (1) ; Table Of Contents Overview Rating Action Rationale Outlook Ratings Score Snapshot Related Criteria And Research Ratings List JULY 24,

2 Research Update: R.V.I. Guaranty Co. Ltd. And Subsidiaries 'BBB' Ratings Affirmed After Insurance Criteria Change; The Outlook Is Stable Overview Following a review under our revised insurance criteria, we are affirming our 'BBB' financial strength ratings on R.V.I. Guaranty Co. Ltd. and its subsidiaries. The rating reflects our view of the company's fair business risk profile and moderately strong financial risk profile, built on strong capital and earnings. The stable outlook reflects our expectation that the group will maintain its very strong capital position. Rating Action On July 24, 2013, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services affirmed its 'BBB' financial strength rating on Bermuda-based R.V.I. Guaranty Co. Ltd. and its U.S.-based subsidiaries R.V.I. America Insurance Co. and R.V.I. National Insurance Co. (collectively, RVI). The outlook is stable. Rationale The ratings on RVI reflect our view of the company's fair business risk profile (BRP) and moderately strong financial risk profile (FRP), built on strong capital and earnings. The ratings also reflect our view of the group's narrow business focus on a niche market that's highly susceptible to economic conditions. We base our opinion that RVI faces intermediate industry and country risk on our view of the low country risk and intermediate industry risks faced by its nonlife insurance operations. Our view of RVI's low country risk stems from the stable economic growth prospects, relatively effective and stable political institutions, sophisticated financial systems, and strong payment culture in the U.S. We believe RVI's nonlife operations are exposed to intermediate industry risks because of the inherent product risk and consequent susceptibility to reserve volatility. The litigious environment in the U.S. also affects claims amounts and payment patterns. But the stability of the U.S. insurance markets' profitability, growth prospects, and overall institutional framework offset this weakness. We view RVI's competitive position as less than adequate, supported by its JULY 24,

3 Research Update: R.V.I. Guaranty Co. Ltd. And Subsidiaries 'BBB' Ratings Affirmed After Insurance Criteria Change; The Outlook Is Stable brand name and extensive market knowledge in the residual value niche market. But its business is limited to residual value insurance, albeit provided for different asset classes, that is highly susceptible to changes in economic conditions. Proposed changes to lease accounting could also limit the company's business prospects. We expect in our base-case scenario that RVI will report a 20%-30% increase in net premiums written in 2013 and RVI has strong capital and earnings, which we anticipate to continue in our base-case scenario. Its capital is redundant at the 'AAA' level based on our risk-based capital model, and we expect it to remain so for the foreseeable future. But the absolute size of the company's total adjusted capital at less than $250 million is a limiting factor to the capital and earnings score. RVI has good operating performance, but revenues have fallen in recent years due to deteriorating macroeconomic conditions. Potential changes to lease accounting could greatly affect RVI's premium volume and earnings. If this were to occur, we would assess it in the context of how well management is able to replace this type of business with a similar product. We expect RVI to report net income of $10 million-$13 million and a combined ratio less than 100% on an insurance financial statement basis for 2013 and We consider RVI's risk position to be intermediate. Its investment strategy is conservative and focuses on capital preservation and managing credit exposure and cash flow risks. At year-end 2012, RVI had high-quality invested assets, composed almost entirely of fixed-income securities and cash with an average credit quality of the fixed-income portfolio of 'AA'. In our view, RVI has less-than-adequate financial flexibility. We regard residual value insurance as a unique and specialized niche market; as a result, the company's access to capital markets is limited. RVI does not have any bank lines of credit, which constrains its ability to raise emergency capital quickly. We regard RVI's enterprise risk management (ERM) and management as adequate and a neutral rating factor. We view RVI's ERM practices as adequate. In September 2011, RVI established its ERM framework, including the appointment of a chief risk officer (CRO) in order to formalize the risk management practices. Before this, the company did not have a deep and thorough ERM process and managed most risks in a silo fashion through the board, CEO, and chief financial officer. Since then, it has formalized its ERM processes with the CRO enforcing underwriting guidelines and conducting audits. We view RVI's management and governance practices as fair. The management team is highly experienced in the leasing industry. The key man risk in this company, however, is somewhat elevated given its size. RVI had only 39 employees as of Dec. 31, While the departure of the CEO and/or a key member of underwriting team could significantly affect operations, the long-term ability of the company to write business may not be hurt since other employees have knowledge of the markets in which RVI underwrites business. That said, RVI's size results in a culture inherently dominated by the CEO, who is one of only three board members and plays a significant role in the JULY 24,

4 Research Update: R.V.I. Guaranty Co. Ltd. And Subsidiaries 'BBB' Ratings Affirmed After Insurance Criteria Change; The Outlook Is Stable approval of all transactions. We regard RVI's liquidity as exceptional. The company generates adequate cash flow, and its investment portfolio is of high quality. There are no near-term liquidity concerns and RVI has proven its ability in to meet its claim payments. Outlook The outlook is stable. We could take a negative rating action if RVI cannot sustain its already constrained competitive position or suffers significant losses, diminishing its capital position. We are unlikely to raise the rating during the next two years given RVI's niche business focus and the absolute size of its total adjusted capital. Ratings Score Snapshot Financial Strength Rating BRP/FRP Anchor Business Risk Profile IICRA Competitive Position Financial Risk Profile Capital & Earnings Risk Position Financial Flexibility BBB/Stable/-- bbb Fair Intermediate Risk Less than Adequate Moderately Strong Strong Intermediate Risk Less than Adequate Modifiers 0 ERM and Management 0 Enterprise Risk Management Adequate Management & Governance Fair Holistic Analysis 0 Liquidity Strong Support 0 Group Support 0 Government Support 0 Related Criteria And Research Insurance Rating Methodology, May 7, 2013 Enterprise Risk Management, May 7, 2013 Group Rating Methodology, May 7, JULY 24,

5 Research Update: R.V.I. Guaranty Co. Ltd. And Subsidiaries 'BBB' Ratings Affirmed After Insurance Criteria Change; The Outlook Is Stable Methodology For Linking Short-Term And Long-Term Ratings For Corporate, Insurance, And Sovereign Issuers, May 7, 2013 Methodology: Management And Governance Credit Factors For Corporate Entities And Insurers, Nov. 13, 2012 Principles Of Credit Ratings, Feb. 16, 2011 Refined Methodology And Assumptions For Analyzing Insurer Capital Adequacy Using The Risk-Based Insurance Capital Model, June 7, 2010 Hybrid Capital Handbook: September 2008 Edition, Sept. 15, 2008 Ratings List Ratings Affirmed R.V.I. Guaranty Co. Ltd. R.V.I. National Insurance Co. R.V.I. America Insurance Co. Counterparty Credit Rating Financial Strength Rating BBB/Stable/-- BBB/Stable/-- Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect at and at All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at Use the Ratings search box located in the left column. JULY 24,

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